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Holidays to Turkey & Egypt - The Rise of the 'Far Near' - UK - November 2010

This report analyses market trends and consumer attitudes towards holidays in Turkey and Egypt, investigating the core market factors, strengths and weaknesses, key players and products in the industry.

  • Holidays to Turkey have reached an estimated 1.8 million trips in 2010, with holidays to Egypt at an estimated 0.8 million trips. This represents a 50% and 61% rise from 2005 respectively, bucking the overall overseas holiday trend where volume fell by 15% in 2009 then an estimated 4% during 2010.
  • Turkey was the sixth most popular overseas destination for UK holidaymakers in 2009, and is poised to overtake Greece and Italy. The country’s rise has been at the expense of the package market to both Spain and Greece, however the former – Britain’s number-one choice – remains four times bigger (in terms of package volume).
  • Egypt lay just outside the top ten destinations in 2009, below Cyprus (10th) and Belgium (11th). It is expected to be in the top ten by the end of 2010. After the US, Egypt is the second most popular outside-Europe destination for UK holidaymakers by a considerable margin.
  • Mintel’s exclusive consumer research reveals that both destinations have great scope for further development. Three-in-ten and four-in-ten consumers haven’t yet been to Turkey and Egypt, but say they may go in future.
  • Turkey is particularly seen as a value choice – seven out of ten of those who have been in the past five years agree that it ‘is a good value for money destination’. Heritage and cultural tourism are the major selling points for Egypt, with two in five people attracted by these features.
  • The ‘traditional’ travel trade continues to dominate holidays to both destinations. Over three in five trips to Turkey and four in five holidays to Egypt are sold as packages. In addition, travel agents still play a critical role. Some 65% of holidaymakers to Turkey and 72% of holidaymakers to Egypt say they used a travel agent for their booking in 2009.

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Table of contents

  1. Issues in the Market

      • Key issues
        • Definitions
          • Abbreviations
          • Future Opportunities

            • Tick-box Turkey
              • Research and Reward
              • Market in Brief

                • Bucking the trends
                  • Trade dominant but independent threat grows
                    • Turkey seen as value choice
                      • Winter appeal grows
                        • Heritage and culture
                          • Med to METT?
                            • Free range Turkey
                              • The White Med
                              • Internal Market Environment

                                • Key points
                                  • Tough times
                                    • Figure 1: Domestic and overseas holidays volume, 2005-10
                                    • Figure 2: Domestic and overseas holidays expenditure, 2005-10
                                  • Independent shift continues
                                    • Figure 3: Inclusive holidays versus independent holidays abroad, by volume, 2005-10
                                  • All regions fall but long haul less heavily
                                    • Figure 4: Outbound holiday visits, by region visited, 2005-09
                                  • Seven in ten still get away
                                    • Figure 5: Percentage of adults booking UK and overseas holidays, 2010
                                  • Expanding airlift to Turkey and Egypt
                                    • Recent network developments
                                      • Western Med resorts catch up on living costs
                                        • Figure 6: Holiday resort costs, June 2010
                                      • Tourism development and strategy – Turkey
                                        • Tourism development and strategy – Egypt
                                        • Broader Market Environment

                                          • Key points
                                            • Uncertainty is the only certainty
                                              • Figure 7: GDP, PDI, consumer expenditure and savings, at current prices, 2005-15
                                            • But holidays are still a top spend priority
                                              • Figure 8: Expenditure priorities, 2005-10
                                            • 25-34 potential for Turkey
                                              • Figure 9: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, by gender, 2005-15
                                            • Family growth
                                              • Figure 10: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2005-15
                                            • AB/C2 growth suggests product polarisation
                                              • Figure 11: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2005-15
                                            • One-person households to rise
                                              • Figure 12: UK households, by size, 2005-15
                                            • Sterling’s fall benefits Turkey ahead of Egypt
                                              • Figure 13: Average daily Exchange rates against Sterling as at 6th October
                                          • Competitive Context

                                            • Key points
                                              • Turkey and Egypt rise up the rankings
                                                • Figure 14: Outbound holiday visits, by country visited, 2005-09
                                              • Turkey on a par with Spanish islands
                                                • Figure 15: Countries visited for short breaks or longer holidays, 2010
                                              • Turkey – low spend per night
                                                • Figure 16: Average spend per holiday night, 2005 vs 2009
                                              • Lure of the far near
                                                • Figure 17: Outbound holiday visits, Turkey, North Africa & Middle East, 2005-09
                                              • Niche destination potential
                                              • Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market

                                                  • Strengths
                                                    • Outperforming the market
                                                      • Substitution effects
                                                        • Travel trade strengths
                                                          • Expanding flight capacity
                                                            • Egypt’s pulling power
                                                              • Weaknesses
                                                                • Danger of over-expansion
                                                                  • All-inclusive dilemmas
                                                                    • Vulnerable to economic recovery
                                                                      • Lack of diversification in Turkey
                                                                        • Security risks
                                                                        • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • New horizons
                                                                              • Romance of the river
                                                                                • Cross-country
                                                                                  • Remote Turkey
                                                                                    • Quirky Turkey/celestial matters
                                                                                      • Ethical alternatives
                                                                                        • Learning in Turkey & Egypt
                                                                                        • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                            • Both destinations grow 50%-plus in five years
                                                                                              • Figure 18: Outbound holiday visits to turkey, volume and expenditure, 2005-15
                                                                                              • Figure 19: Outbound holiday visits to egypt, volume and expenditure, 2005-15
                                                                                            • Supply and demand factors
                                                                                              • Forecasts
                                                                                                • Figure 20: Volume forecast of outbound holiday visits to turkey, 2010-15
                                                                                                • Figure 21: Value forecast of outbound holiday visits to turkey, 2010-15
                                                                                                • Figure 22: Volume forecast of outbound holiday visits to Egypt, 2010-15
                                                                                                • Figure 23: Value forecast of outbound holiday visits to Egypt, 2010-15
                                                                                              • Forecast methodology
                                                                                              • Segment Performance

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • Independent Turkey vs packaged Turkey
                                                                                                    • Figure 24: Outbound holiday visits to turkey, inclusive vs independent, 2005-10
                                                                                                  • Independent Egypt vs packaged Egypt
                                                                                                    • Figure 25: Outbound holiday visits to egypt, inclusive vs independent, 2005-10
                                                                                                  • Seasonal shifts
                                                                                                    • Figure 26: Outbound holiday visits to turkey and egypt, percentage of total trips, by quarter 2009
                                                                                                    • Figure 27: Outbound holiday visits to turkey and egypt, percentage of total trips, by quarter 2005
                                                                                                  • Three quarters of holidaymakers hit the beach in Turkey
                                                                                                    • Figure 28: Type of holiday taken for last holiday – Turkey, 2005-09
                                                                                                  • Beach is the bulk but Egyptian tail is longer
                                                                                                    • Figure 29: Type of holiday taken for last holiday – Egypt, 2006-09
                                                                                                  • Turkey sees growth at lower end of price scale
                                                                                                    • Figure 30: Trends in total cost of holiday – Turkey (excluding spending money), 2005-09
                                                                                                  • Luxury spend is higher in Egypt
                                                                                                    • Figure 31: Trends in total cost of holiday – Egypt (excluding spending money), 2006-09
                                                                                                  • Hotels dominate but rented property on the rise
                                                                                                    • Figure 32: Trends in type of accommodation, holidays to Turkey, 2005-09
                                                                                                  • AI is the dominant format for Egypt
                                                                                                    • Figure 33: Trends in type of accommodation, holidays to Egypt, 2006-09
                                                                                                  • Average stay length is falling for Turkey
                                                                                                    • Figure 34: Outbound holiday visits to turkey, percentage of total trips by duration, 2005 vs 2009
                                                                                                  • 8-13 night growth as packages get more flexible
                                                                                                    • Figure 35: Nights spent away during holiday to Turkey, 2005-09
                                                                                                  • Average stay is rising for Egypt
                                                                                                    • Figure 36: Outbound holiday visits to egypt, percentage of total trips by duration, 2005 vs 2009
                                                                                                    • Figure 37: Nights spent away during holiday to Egypt, 2006-09
                                                                                                  • Going solo to Turkey and Egypt
                                                                                                    • Figure 38: Number of people on last holiday to Turkey, 2005-09
                                                                                                    • Figure 39: Number of people on last holiday to Egypt, 2005-09
                                                                                                  • Half of holidays booked within three months
                                                                                                    • Figure 40: How far in advance holiday to Turkey was booked, 2005-09
                                                                                                    • Figure 41: How far in advance holiday to Egypt was booked, 2006-09
                                                                                                • Companies and Products

                                                                                                    • Anatolian Sky
                                                                                                      • Discover Egypt
                                                                                                        • Holidays4U
                                                                                                          • Olympic Holidays
                                                                                                            • Preston Travel Group
                                                                                                              • Peltours
                                                                                                                • Longwood Holidays
                                                                                                                  • Red Sea Holidays
                                                                                                                    • Thomas Cook
                                                                                                                      • TUI
                                                                                                                        • Wings Abroad
                                                                                                                        • Channels to Market

                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                            • Internet and travel shops are leading research resources
                                                                                                                              • Figure 42: Research sources for holidays to Turkey, 2005-09
                                                                                                                              • Figure 43: Research sources for holidays to Egypt, 2006-09
                                                                                                                            • Intermediaries retain strong role for Turkey & Egypt
                                                                                                                              • Figure 44: How last holiday to Turkey was booked, 2005-09
                                                                                                                              • Figure 45: How last holiday to Egypt was booked, 2006-09
                                                                                                                            • Internet importance
                                                                                                                              • Figure 46: Method of booking for last holiday to Turkey, 2005-09
                                                                                                                              • Figure 47: Method of booking for last holiday to Egypt, 2006-09
                                                                                                                          • Who Has Been and Who Wants to Go?

                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                              • Half the population have been/would like to go
                                                                                                                                • Figure 48: Holidays to Turkey and/or Egypt, August 2010
                                                                                                                              • Developing youth bias
                                                                                                                                • ABC1 family potential
                                                                                                                                • What People Think of Holidays to Turkey

                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                    • Turkey – value for money and friendly
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 49: Attitudes towards holidays to Turkey, August 2010
                                                                                                                                    • Low excitement factor
                                                                                                                                    • What People Think of Holidays to Egypt

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                        • Egypt for culture/history
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 50: Attitudes towards holidays to Egypt, August 2010
                                                                                                                                        • Riddle of the Sphinx
                                                                                                                                          • Safety not a major concern
                                                                                                                                          • Targeting Opportunities

                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                              • Target groups
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 51: Holidays to Turkey and Egypt target groups, August 2010
                                                                                                                                              • T&E enthusiasts
                                                                                                                                                • Demographic profile
                                                                                                                                                  • Marketing message
                                                                                                                                                    • Pyramid selling
                                                                                                                                                      • Demographic profile
                                                                                                                                                        • Marketing message
                                                                                                                                                          • Turkey on a budget
                                                                                                                                                            • Demographic profile
                                                                                                                                                              • Marketing message
                                                                                                                                                                • Anxious travellers
                                                                                                                                                                  • Demographic profile
                                                                                                                                                                    • Marketing message
                                                                                                                                                                      • No-go
                                                                                                                                                                        • Demographic profile
                                                                                                                                                                          • Marketing message
                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Who Has Been, and Who Wants to Go?

                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 52: Holidays to Turkey, by demographics, August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 53: Holidays to Egypt, by DEMOGRAPHICS, AUGUST 2010
                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – What People Think of Holidays to Turkey

                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 54: Attitudes towards holidays to Turkey, by holidays to Turkey, August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 55: Attitudes towards holidays to Turkey, by non-visitors to turkey, August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 56: Attitudes towards holidays to Turkey, by holidays to Egypt, August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 57: Attitudes towards holidays to Turkey, by non-visitors to Egypt, August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 58: Most popular attitudes towards holidays to Turkey, by demographics, August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 59: Next most popular attitudes towards holidays to Turkey, by demographics, August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 60: Attitudes towards holidays to Turkey from holidaymakers to Turkey, by demographics, August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – What People Think of Holidays to Egypt

                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 61: Attitudes towards holidays to Egypt, by holidays to Turkey, August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 62: Attitudes towards holidays to Egypt, by non-visitors to Turkey, August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 63: Attitudes towards holidays to Egypt, by holidays to Egypt, August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 64: Attitudes towards holidays to Egypt, by most popular attitudes towards holidays to Turkey, August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 65: Attitudes towards holidays to Egypt, by next most popular attitudes towards holidays to Turkey, August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 66: Attitudes towards holidays to Egypt, by other attitudes towards holidays to Turkey, August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 67: Most popular attitudes towards holidays to Egypt, by demographics, August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 68: Next most popular attitudes towards holidays to Egypt, by demographics, August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 69: Other attitudes towards holidays to Egypt, by demographics, August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 70: Attitudes towards holidays to Egypt from holidaymakers to Egypt, by demographics, August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Targeting Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 71: Attitudes towards holidays to Turkey/Egypt, by target groups, August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 72: Holidays to Turkey and/or Egypt, by target groups, August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 73: Target groups, by demographics, August 2010

                                                                                                                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                          • Air Travel Organisers' Licensing (ATOL)
                                                                                                                                                                          • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                          • Avro plc
                                                                                                                                                                          • Bales Worldwide
                                                                                                                                                                          • Bank of England
                                                                                                                                                                          • British Airways Plc
                                                                                                                                                                          • British Market Research Bureau (BMRB)
                                                                                                                                                                          • Butlins Skyline Limited
                                                                                                                                                                          • Center Parcs
                                                                                                                                                                          • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                                          • Cosmos Group (Globus group of companies)
                                                                                                                                                                          • Council of Mortgage Lenders
                                                                                                                                                                          • Cox and Kings
                                                                                                                                                                          • Dragoman
                                                                                                                                                                          • easyJet Airline Company Limited
                                                                                                                                                                          • First Choice Holidays & Flights Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                          • FlyBE
                                                                                                                                                                          • Four Seasons Hotels Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                          • Government Actuary's Department (GAD)
                                                                                                                                                                          • Hilton Group plc
                                                                                                                                                                          • Holidays4U
                                                                                                                                                                          • Hyatt Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                          • InterContinental Hotels Group PLC
                                                                                                                                                                          • J. Sainsbury
                                                                                                                                                                          • Jet2.com
                                                                                                                                                                          • Kantar Media
                                                                                                                                                                          • Kwik Travel
                                                                                                                                                                          • Longwood Holidays
                                                                                                                                                                          • Market & Opinion Research International (MORI)
                                                                                                                                                                          • Marks & Spencer
                                                                                                                                                                          • Monarch Airlines
                                                                                                                                                                          • MyTravel Group plc
                                                                                                                                                                          • National Lottery Commission
                                                                                                                                                                          • Office for National Statistics
                                                                                                                                                                          • Olympic Holidays
                                                                                                                                                                          • Peltours
                                                                                                                                                                          • Post Office Limited
                                                                                                                                                                          • Preston Travel Group
                                                                                                                                                                          • Qatar Airways
                                                                                                                                                                          • Red Sea Holidays
                                                                                                                                                                          • Ryanair Holdings plc
                                                                                                                                                                          • Sentido Hotels & Resorts
                                                                                                                                                                          • Simply Travel
                                                                                                                                                                          • Starbucks Coffee Company UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                          • Swan Hellenic
                                                                                                                                                                          • Teletext Holidays
                                                                                                                                                                          • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                                          • The British Museum
                                                                                                                                                                          • Thomas Cook Airlines
                                                                                                                                                                          • Thomas Cook Group PLC
                                                                                                                                                                          • Thomson Holidays
                                                                                                                                                                          • Travelworld Vacations Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                          • Tropicana UK
                                                                                                                                                                          • TUI Travel PLC
                                                                                                                                                                          • TUI UK
                                                                                                                                                                          • Waitrose
                                                                                                                                                                          • Wm Morrison Supermarkets
                                                                                                                                                                          • World Sky Travel Ltd

                                                                                                                                                                          Holidays to Turkey & Egypt - The Rise of the 'Far Near' - UK - November 2010

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