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Home Baking - UK - July 2014

“As consumer spending rises, it is likely to become increasingly important for home baking companies to remind people of the benefits of baking in order to maintain consumer interest. Brands can leverage the relaxation associated with baking in their advertising campaigns, which is likely to resonate given that stress affects many people’s lives.”

– Emma Clifford, Senior Food Analyst

Some issues covered in this report include:

  • It will become increasingly important for companies to keep baking front of mind for consumers as the economy rebounds
  • Companies which support health-conscious bakers are likely to reap rewards
  • Targeted marketing campaigns can help to enhance the appeal of home baking among the older generation

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Excluded
          • Abbreviations
          • Executive Summary

              • The market
                • Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail value sales of the home baking market, 2009-19
              • Market factors
                • Health concerns heightened by the high-profile sugar debate
                  • An improvement in consumer spending and confidence
                    • Demographic changes present challenges and opportunities
                      • Companies, brands and innovation
                        • Own-label has a strong position in home baking ingredients
                          • Own-label stole the lead in NPD in 2013
                            • A drop in adspend in 2013
                              • The consumer
                                • Britain remains a nation of bakers…but its popularity has fallen in the last year
                                  • Figure 2: Frequency of baking at home, March 2014
                                • Baking has strong associations with relaxation
                                  • Figure 3: How consumers feel when baking, March 2014
                                • Special offers hold a lot of sway
                                  • Figure 4: Choice factors for baking mixes, cake coverings or decorations, March 2014
                                • Baking is seen as an important life skill
                                  • Figure 5: Attitudes towards home baking, March 2014
                                • Strong demand for resealable packaging
                                  • Figure 6: Further attitudes towards home baking, March 2014
                                • What we think
                                • Trend Application

                                    • Trend: Slow It All Down
                                      • Trend: Retired for Hire
                                        • Trend: Hungry Planet
                                        • Issues and Insights

                                            • It will become increasingly important for companies to keep baking front of mind for consumers as the economy rebounds
                                              • The facts
                                                • The implications
                                                  • Companies which support health-conscious bakers are likely to reap rewards
                                                    • The facts
                                                      • The implications
                                                        • Targeted marketing campaigns can help to enhance the appeal of home baking among the older generation
                                                          • The facts
                                                            • The implications
                                                            • Market Drivers

                                                              • Key points
                                                                • Most Britons are keen to lose weight
                                                                  • The high-profile sugar debate threatens demand for baking
                                                                    • Potential for alternative sweeteners and savoury items
                                                                      • Consumer spending gathers momentum…
                                                                        • Figure 7: Consumer expenditure and savings, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                                      • …with home baking threatened by less frugal mindsets
                                                                        • The ageing population presents a challenge
                                                                          • Shift towards smaller households hinders the market
                                                                          • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                                            • Strengths
                                                                              • Weaknesses
                                                                              • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                  • Own-label takes command of home baking NPD
                                                                                    • 2013 was the turn of Sainsbury’s and Waitrose to up the ante
                                                                                      • Figure 8: New product activity in home baking ingredients, own-label vs branded, 2009-14
                                                                                      • Figure 9: Top 10 companies, by share of launches in UK home baking market, 2009-14
                                                                                    • Dr Oetker leads the brands
                                                                                      • Yellow fats look to NPD to target bakers
                                                                                        • Vegetarian is the most common claim
                                                                                          • Figure 10: Top 10 product claims in new launches in the home baking market, 2009-14
                                                                                        • A jump in Halloween launches in the home baking market in 2013
                                                                                          • Limited products with convenient packaging
                                                                                          • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • The home baking ‘bubble’ has burst
                                                                                                • Figure 11: UK retail value sales of the home baking market, 2009-19
                                                                                              • The future
                                                                                                • Figure 12: UK retail value sales of the home baking market, 2009-19
                                                                                              • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                              • Segment Performance

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • Eggs take the lion’s share of sales
                                                                                                    • Figure 13: Share of UK retail sales in the home baking market, by segment, 2014 (est)
                                                                                                    • Figure 14: UK retail value sales in the home baking market, by segment, 2009-19
                                                                                                  • Challenging times for the sugar market
                                                                                                    • Flour and baking mixes fall from favour
                                                                                                      • Figure 15: UK retail value sales in the baking mixes, pastry and suet segment, by sub-segment, 2011-14
                                                                                                    • Cake coverings and culinary aids are the only segment to defy the downturn
                                                                                                      • Figure 16: UK retail value sales in the cake decorating, cake coverings, culinary aids and cooking chocolate segment, by sub-segment, 2011-14
                                                                                                  • Market Share

                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                      • Whitworths is the rising star in sugar
                                                                                                        • Figure 17: Brand shares in UK retail sales of sugar, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
                                                                                                      • A strong performance from Canderel
                                                                                                        • Figure 18: Brand shares in UK retail sales of artificial sweetener, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
                                                                                                      • A decline in flour and baking mixes
                                                                                                        • Figure 19: Brand shares in UK retail sales of flour and dry baking mixes, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
                                                                                                      • Big gains for own-label in cake coverings, decorations and culinary aids
                                                                                                        • Figure 20: Brand shares in UK retail sales of cake coverings, decorations and culinary aids, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
                                                                                                    • Companies and Products

                                                                                                        • Dr Oetker
                                                                                                          • Background
                                                                                                            • Product range
                                                                                                              • Product innovation
                                                                                                                • Marketing and promotion
                                                                                                                  • General Mills
                                                                                                                    • Background
                                                                                                                      • Product range
                                                                                                                        • Product innovation
                                                                                                                          • Marketing and promotion
                                                                                                                            • Kerry Foods
                                                                                                                              • Background
                                                                                                                                • Product range
                                                                                                                                  • Product innovation
                                                                                                                                    • Marketing and promotion
                                                                                                                                      • Premier Foods
                                                                                                                                        • Background
                                                                                                                                          • Product range
                                                                                                                                            • The Silver Spoon Company
                                                                                                                                              • Background
                                                                                                                                                • Product range
                                                                                                                                                  • Product innovation
                                                                                                                                                    • Marketing and promotion
                                                                                                                                                      • Symington’s
                                                                                                                                                        • Background
                                                                                                                                                          • Product range
                                                                                                                                                            • Product innovation
                                                                                                                                                            • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                • A drop in adspend in 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 21: Topline advertising expenditure in the UK home baking market, by sub-segment, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                • Dr Oetker took the lead in 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 22: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on home baking*, by top 10 advertisers, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                • Waitrose and Sainsbury’s are the top-spending supermarkets
                                                                                                                                                                  • Sugar brands cut back
                                                                                                                                                                    • New TV ad campaign for Happy Eggs
                                                                                                                                                                      • General Mills stepped up advertising in 2013
                                                                                                                                                                      • The Consumer – Home Baking Habits

                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                          • Britain is a nation of bakers…
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 23: Frequency of baking at home, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                            • …but there has been a decline in baking since summer 2013
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 24: Frequency of baking at home, June 2013 and March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                            • Baking enjoys strong family appeal
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 25: Consumers baking partly from scratch and totally from scratch at least once a week, by gender and age, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                            • Cakes are the go-to baking creations
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 26: Items baked at home in the last 12 months, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                              • Generational divide in baking habits
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 27: Consumers who have baked batters, sweet puddings, sweet pies and tarts and savoury pies/tarts/pastries from scratch in the last 12 months, by age, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 28: Consumers who have baked biscuits/cookies, brownies, muffins or pizza bases in the last 12 months, by age, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                              • Bakers have a narrow repertoire
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 29: Repertoire of items baked totally and partly from scratch at home in the last 12 months, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                            • The Consumer – Feelings Associated with Home Baking

                                                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                • Baking has strong associations with relaxation
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 30: How consumers feel when baking, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Under-35s are most adventurous
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 31: Consumers who feel proud, adventurous, confident and economical when baking, by age, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                • The Consumer – Choice Factors for Baking Mixes, Cake Coverings or Decorations

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Key analysis
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Special offers hold a lot of sway
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 32: Choice factors for baking mixes, cake coverings or decorations, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Bakers opt for tried and tested products
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Notable interest in high-quality ingredients
                                                                                                                                                                                          • A sizeable minority look for better-for-you options
                                                                                                                                                                                          • The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Home Baking

                                                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Baking is seen as an important life skill
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 33: Attitudes towards home baking, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Opportunities to help bakers develop their skills
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Experimentation is popular
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Interest in single-serve cake mixes from one in four bakers
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • The Consumer – Further Attitudes Towards Home Baking

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Strong demand for resealable packaging
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 34: Further attitudes towards home baking, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The health agenda limits baking for one in three
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Interest in better-for-you ingredients
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Are natural sweeteners an answer to sugar concerns in baking?
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Baking with vegetables and high-protein recipes sparks interest
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 35: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK value sales within the home baking, 2014-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Segment Performance

                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 36: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK value sales of eggs, 2014-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 37: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK value sales of sugar and sweeteners, 2014-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 38: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK value sales of flour, yeast, baking mixes, pastry and suet, 2014-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 39: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK value sales of cake coverings, decorations, culinary aids and cooking chocolate, 2014-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – The Consumer – Home Baking Habits

                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 40: Frequency of baking at home, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 41: Items baked at home in the last 12 months, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 42: Repertoire of items baked totally from scratch at home in the last 12 months, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 43: Repertoire of items baked partly from scratch at home in the last 12 months, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 44: Frequency of baking at home – Bake partly from scratch (using ready-prepared pastry, cake mix or bread mix), by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 45: Frequency of baking at home – Bake totally from scratch (using individual raw ingredients), by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 46: Most popular items baked totally from scratch at home in the last 12 months, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 47: Next most popular items baked totally from scratch at home in the last 12 months, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 48: Most popular items baked partly from scratch at home in the last 12 months, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 49: Next most popular items baked partly from scratch at home in the last 12 months, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 50: Repertoire of items baked totally from scratch at home in the last 12 months, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 51: Repertoire of items baked partly from scratch at home in the last 12 months, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – The Consumer – Feelings Associated with Home Baking

                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 52: Feelings associated with home baking, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 53: Most popular feelings associated with home baking, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 54: Next most popular feelings associated with home baking, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 55: Other feelings associated with home baking, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – The Consumer – Choice Factors for Baking Mixes, Cake Coverings or Decorations

                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 56: Choice factors for baking mixes, cake coverings or decorations, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 57: Most popular choice factors for baking mixes, cake coverings or decorations, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 58: Next most popular choice factors for baking mixes, cake coverings or decorations, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Home Baking

                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 59: Attitudes towards home baking, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 60: Most popular attitudes towards home baking, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 61: Next most popular attitudes towards home baking, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 62: Other attitudes towards home baking, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – The Consumer – Further Attitudes Towards Home Baking

                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 63: Further attitudes towards home baking, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 64: Most popular further attitudes towards home baking, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 65: Next most popular further attitudes towards home baking, by demographics, March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 66: Other further attitudes towards home baking, by demographics, March 2014

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Associated British Foods Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Aunt Bessie's
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • British Bakeries Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Dr Oetker
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • General Mills Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Homepride Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Jane Asher Party Cakes & Sugarcraft
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Kerry Foods
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Kerry Group plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Nestlé UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Premier Foods plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Symington's
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Tesco (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • The Silver Spoon Company
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Victoria Foods

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Home Baking - UK - July 2014

                                                                                                                                                                                                            £1,995.00 (Excl.Tax)