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Home Baking - UK - October 2012

“The economic downturn may have kick started the revival of baking, as consumers started to prioritise home-based activities as part of their efforts to cut costs. However, it is clear from the enthusiasm of young, aspiring bakers that this has become much more than a means of economising. The finding that most bakers are keen to develop their culinary skills opens up real opportunities for brands to capitalise on.”

– Emma Clifford, Senior Food and Drink Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • How is the health trend affecting the home baking market?
  • What impact has high-profile media coverage had on the home baking market?
  • To what extent is the economic downturn fuelling the home baking trend?
  • How can brands more effectively target men and over-45s?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Figure 1: UK retail value sales of the home baking market, 2007-17
              • Figure 2: UK retail sales of baking ingredients, by category, 2012 (est)
            • Market factors
              • The shifting population structure presents challenges and opportunities
                • Figure 3: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2007-17
              • Consumers continue to treat themselves
                • Growth in the number of one-person households will suppress the market
                  • The UK economy remains fragile
                    • Brands come under increasing pressure from own-label
                      • Dr. Oetker and General Mills dominate ad investment
                        • The consumer
                          • Britain is a nation of bakers
                            • Figure 4: Frequency of baking at home, August 2012
                          • Women, under-35s and ABs are the most avid bakers
                            • Figure 5: Consumers who bake at home, by gender, age and socio-economic group, August 2012
                          • Cakes are the most popular baked goods
                            • Figure 6: Items baked at home in the last 12 months, August 2012
                          • Seven in ten bakers have bought raw baking ingredients
                            • Figure 7: Ingredients bought in the last 12 months for baking at home, August 2012
                          • The pool of bakers has grown in the last year
                            • Figure 8: Attitudes towards home baking, August 2012
                          • Baking for others and economising are not key motivations
                            • Young cooks are the most experimental and tech-savvy bakers
                              • Enjoyment is the main motivation, and presentation is key
                                • Figure 9: Further attitudes towards home baking, August 2012
                              • Control over ingredients is a major allure
                                • Baking from scratch vs using mixes
                                  • Bakers want to learn to be better
                                    • What we think
                                    • Issues in the Market

                                        • How is the health trend affecting the home baking market?
                                          • What impact has high-profile media coverage had on the home baking market?
                                            • To what extent is the economic downturn fuelling the home baking trend?
                                              • How can brands more effectively target men and over-45s?
                                              • Trend Application

                                                  • Trend: Survival Skills
                                                    • Trend: Minimize Me
                                                      • 2015 trend: Access Anything, Anywhere
                                                      • Market Drivers

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • Six in ten are experimental cooks
                                                            • Figure 10: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements regarding cooking and baking, by gender, 2012
                                                          • Only a small minority can’t find the time to cook
                                                            • Large numbers of adults like to treat themselves
                                                              • Figure 11: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements regarding food and indulgent foods, 2008-12
                                                            • High visibility in the media has heightened the profile of home baking
                                                              • Growth in ABs should boost the market
                                                                • Figure 12: Forecast change in adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                              • The shifting population structure presents challenges and opportunities
                                                                • Figure 13: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2007-17
                                                              • Growth in the number of one-person households
                                                                • Figure 14: UK households, by size, 2007-17
                                                              • Rising price of commodities reflects on baking
                                                                • Figure 15: RPI – all items and food, January 2007-August 2012
                                                              • Will a return to growth in consumer spending dent the market?
                                                                • Figure 16: PDI, consumer expenditure and savings, at constant 2012 prices, 2007-17
                                                            • Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market

                                                              • Strengths
                                                                • Weaknesses
                                                                • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Home baking NPD peaked in 2010
                                                                      • Figure 17: Share of home baking product launches in all food and drink NPD, 2009-12
                                                                    • Brands come under increasing pressure from own-label in NPD
                                                                      • Figure 18: New product activity in home baking ingredients, private label vs branded, 2009-12
                                                                    • Supermarkets drive NPD in the first half of 2012
                                                                      • Figure 19: Top ten brands, by share of launches in UK home baking market, 2009-12
                                                                    • Range extensions account for half of NPD
                                                                      • Figure 20: NPD in the UK home baking market, by launch type, 2009-12
                                                                    • Ease of use leaps ahead in product claims
                                                                      • Figure 21: Top ten product claims in new launches in the home baking market, 2009-12
                                                                    • Innovations in sugar and sweeteners
                                                                      • Home baking kits aim to make baking affordable and convenient
                                                                      • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                        • Key points
                                                                          • The home baking market is booming
                                                                            • Figure 22: UK retail value sales of the home baking market, 2007-17
                                                                          • Continued value growth is set to prevail
                                                                            • Figure 23: UK retail value sales of the home baking market, 2007-17
                                                                          • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                          • Segment Performance

                                                                            • Key points
                                                                              • Eggs and sugar dominate
                                                                                • Figure 24: UK retail sales of baking ingredients, by category, 2012 (est)
                                                                              • Solid annual growth in the egg market
                                                                                • Figure 25: UK retail sales of eggs, 2007-17
                                                                              • Sugar is affected by high rates of inflation
                                                                                • Figure 26: UK retail sales of sugar and sweeteners, 2007-17
                                                                              • The flour and yeast market continues to grow
                                                                                • Figure 27: UK retail sales of flour and bread yeast, 2007-17
                                                                              • Sales of pastry and suet grind to a halt in 2012
                                                                                • Figure 28: UK retail sales of pastry and suet, 2007-17
                                                                              • Baking mixes are booming
                                                                                • Figure 29: UK retail sales of baking mixes, 2007-17
                                                                              • Cake coverings and decorations
                                                                                • Figure 30: UK retail sales of cake coverings and decorations, 2007-17
                                                                              • Cooking chocolate
                                                                                • Figure 31: UK retail sales of cooking chocolate, 2007-17
                                                                              • Culinary aids
                                                                                • Figure 32: UK retail sales of culinary aids, 2007-17
                                                                            • Market Share

                                                                              • Key point
                                                                                • Flour and suet
                                                                                  • Figure 33: Brand shares in value sales of flour, MAT until August 2011 and MAT until August 2012
                                                                                • Sweet and savoury mixes
                                                                                  • Figure 34: Brand shares in value sales of sweet and savoury mixes, MAT until August 2011 and MAT until August 2012
                                                                                • Bread mixes and yeast
                                                                                  • Pastry
                                                                                    • Figure 35: Brand shares in value sales of pastry, MAT until August 2011 and MAT until August 2012
                                                                                  • Cake coverings, decorations and culinary aids
                                                                                    • Figure 36: Brand shares in value sales of cake coverings, MAT until August 2011 and MAT until August 2012
                                                                                    • Figure 37: Brand shares in value sales of cake decorations, MAT until August 2011 and MAT until August 2012
                                                                                    • Figure 38: Brand shares in value sales of culinary aids, MAT until August 2011 and MAT until August 2012
                                                                                  • Cooking chocolate
                                                                                    • Figure 39: Brand shares in value sales of cooking chocolate, MAT until August 2011 and MAT until August 2012
                                                                                • Companies and Products

                                                                                  • Dr. Oetker
                                                                                    • Doves Farm Foods
                                                                                      • General Mills
                                                                                        • Kerry Foods
                                                                                          • Premier Foods
                                                                                            • The Silver Spoon Company
                                                                                              • Victoria Foods
                                                                                              • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • Marked rise in adspend from 2009-11
                                                                                                    • Figure 40: Topline advertising expenditure in the UK home baking* market, 2008-11
                                                                                                  • TV commands the majority of adspend
                                                                                                    • Figure 41: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on home baking, by media type, 2008-12
                                                                                                    • Figure 42: Share of main monitored media advertising expenditure on home baking, by media type, 2008-12
                                                                                                  • Dr. Oetker and General Mills are most active
                                                                                                    • Figure 43: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on home baking, by leading brands 2008-12*
                                                                                                    • Figure 44: Share of main monitored media advertising expenditure on home baking, by leading brands, 2008-12*
                                                                                                • The Consumer – Home Baking Habits

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Consumers prefer to cook from scratch
                                                                                                        • Figure 45: Frequency of baking at home, August 2012
                                                                                                        • Figure 46: Consumer who bake, by gender, age and socio-economic group, August 2012
                                                                                                    • The Consumer – Items Baked at Home

                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                        • Cakes are the most popular baked foods
                                                                                                            • Figure 47: Items baked at home in the last 12 months, August 2012
                                                                                                          • Age influences baking habits
                                                                                                            • Figure 48: Consumers who have baked cakes, biscuits/cookies, homemade pizza, brownies and muffins, by age, August 2012
                                                                                                            • Figure 49: Consumers who have baked batters, sweet puddings, breads and sweet pies and tarts, by age, August 2012
                                                                                                          • Men are more likely than women to bake bread
                                                                                                            • Figure 50: Items baked at home in the last 12 months, by gender, August 2012
                                                                                                        • The Consumer – Baking Ingredients Purchased

                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                            • Raw ingredients are the most commonly purchased items
                                                                                                                • Figure 51: Ingredients bought in the last 12 months for baking at home, August 2012
                                                                                                              • Pastry is the most commonly purchased prepared item
                                                                                                                • One in four bakers have purchased cake mixes
                                                                                                                    • Figure 52: Consumers who have purchased children’s cake mixes in the last 12 months, by gender, socio-economic group and presence of children, August 2012
                                                                                                                  • Repertoire analysis
                                                                                                                    • Figure 53: Repertoire of ingredients* bought in the last 12 months for baking at home, August 2012
                                                                                                                    • Figure 54: Repertoire of ingredients bought in the last 12 months for baking at home, by gender, August 2012
                                                                                                                • The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Home Baking

                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                    • Over a fifth of consumers are baking more
                                                                                                                        • Figure 55: Attitudes towards home baking, August 2012
                                                                                                                        • Figure 56: Trends in baking habits, by age and socio-economic group, August 2012
                                                                                                                      • Consumers who bake for others are in the minority
                                                                                                                        • Over a quarter of bakers get recipes from the internet
                                                                                                                          • Young bakers are most experimental
                                                                                                                            • Cost is not the main motivation
                                                                                                                              • Time is a barrier for one in six
                                                                                                                              • The Consumer – Further Attitudes Towards Home Baking

                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                  • Enjoyment is the main motivation
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 57: Further attitudes towards home baking, August 2012
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 58: Further attitudes towards enjoyment of home baking, by gender and age, August 2012
                                                                                                                                    • Baking can be a form of art
                                                                                                                                      • Do mixes match up to baking from scratch?
                                                                                                                                        • Baking puts consumers in the driving seat
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 59: Further attitudes towards home baking – controlling and concern about ingredients, by gender and age, August 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Almost half of consumers adapt recipes to make them healthier
                                                                                                                                          • Cookery shows spark inspiration for baking
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 60: Consumers agreeing with the statement ‘Watching cookery shows inspires me to bake at home’, by age, socio-economic group and presence of children, August 2012
                                                                                                                                          • A desire to bake better
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 61: Consumers who would like to learn how to be better at baking, by age and presence of children, August 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Own-label is gaining trust
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 62: Agreement with the statement ‘I trust branded baking ingredients more than own-label’, August 2012
                                                                                                                                        • The Consumer – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                            • Three target groups
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 63: Target groups based on attitudes towards home baking, June 2011
                                                                                                                                            • Eager to Learn (29%)
                                                                                                                                              • Premium Bakers (41%)
                                                                                                                                                • Health-conscious (30%)
                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Market Drivers

                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 64: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, 2008-12
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 65: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2012
                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – The Consumer – Home Baking Habits

                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 66: Frequency of any baking at home, by demographics, August 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 67: Frequency of baking totally from scratch (using individual raw ingredients) at home, by demographics, August 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 68: Frequency of baking partly from scratch (using ready-prepared pastry, cake mix or bread mix) at home, by demographics, August 2012
                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – The Consumer – Items Baked at Home

                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 69: Most popular items baked at home in the last 12 months, by demographics, August 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 70: Next most popular items baked at home in the last 12 months, by demographics, August 2012
                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – The Consumer – Baking Ingredients Purchased

                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 71: Most popular ingredients bought in the last 12 months for baking at home, by demographics, August 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 72: Next most popular ingredients bought in the last 12 months for baking at home, by demographics, August 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 73: Other ingredients bought in the last 12 months for baking at home, by demographics, August 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 74: Repertoire of ingredients bought in the last 12 months for baking at home, by demographics, August 2012
                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Home Baking

                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 75: Most popular attitudes towards home baking, by demographics, August 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 76: Next most popular attitudes towards home baking, by demographics, August 2012
                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Further Attitudes Towards Home Baking

                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 77: Agreement with the statements ‘I enjoy baking at home’ and ‘How cakes look when they are finished is an important part of the enjoyment of baking’, by demographics, August 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 78: Agreement with the statements ‘I like to bake at home so I can control the ingredients’ and ‘Using mixes is not as rewarding as baking from scratch’, by demographics, August 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 79: Agreement with the statements ‘I'd like to learn how to be better at baking’ and ‘I worry about some of the ingredients and additives that are in shop-bought food’, by demographics, August 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 80: Agreement with the statements ‘I like to adapt recipes when baking to make them healthier’ and ‘Watching cookery shows inspires me to bake at home’, by demographics, August 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 81: Agreement with the statements ‘Baking at home is more expensive than buying the food from the shops’ and ‘I trust branded baking ingredients more than own-label’, by demographics, August 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 82: Agreement with the statements ‘You can't tell the difference between food which is made from scratch or from mixes’ and ‘I buy organic ingredients where possible’, by demographics, August 2012
                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 83: Target groups, by demographics, August 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 84: Attitudes towards home baking, by target groups, August 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 85: Frequency of baking at home, by target groups, August 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 86: Items baked at home in the last 12 months, by target groups, August 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 87: Ingredients bought in the last 12 months for baking at home, by target groups, August 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 88: Attitudes towards home baking, by target groups, August 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 89: Grocery shopping habits, by target groups, August 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 90: Attitude towards health and healthy lifestyles, by target groups, August 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 91: Cooking and eating habits, by target groups, August 2012

                                                                                                                                                Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                • Associated British Foods Plc
                                                                                                                                                • Aunt Bessie's
                                                                                                                                                • Billington Food Group
                                                                                                                                                • British Bakeries Ltd
                                                                                                                                                • Centura Foods Ltd
                                                                                                                                                • Doves Farm Foods Ltd
                                                                                                                                                • Dr Oetker
                                                                                                                                                • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                • General Mills Inc
                                                                                                                                                • Homepride Ltd
                                                                                                                                                • Jane Asher Party Cakes & Sugarcraft
                                                                                                                                                • Kerry Foods
                                                                                                                                                • Kerry Group plc
                                                                                                                                                • Macmillan Cancer Relief
                                                                                                                                                • Nestlé UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                • Premier Foods plc
                                                                                                                                                • Symington's
                                                                                                                                                • The Silver Spoon Company
                                                                                                                                                • Victoria Foods

                                                                                                                                                Home Baking - UK - October 2012

                                                                                                                                                £1,995.00 (Excl.Tax)