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Hot and Cold Cereal - Canada - July 2015

“The decline in cereal volume and value sales suggests challenges for the industry impacted by demographic changes. An aging population can adversely affect the cereal market as it is perceived to be a convenience food most frequently eaten by the time-starved. That said, Millennials aging into their family years can prove a boon for the category if it can meet the demands of this cohort.”
Joel Gregoire, Senior Food & Drink Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • An aging population represents a challenge for cereal
  • Millennials and the “baby boomlet” can support cereal’s growth
  • Chinese Canadians are looking for hot, satiating options
  • Evolving cereal beyond being a convenience food

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Methodology
          • Abbreviations
          • Executive Summary

              • The market
                • Figure 1: Forecast of Canada retail volume sales of hot and cold cereal, 2010-20
                • Figure 2: Forecast of Canada retail value sales of hot and cold cereal, 2010-20
              • Market factors
                • Canadian population expected to grow
                  • Figure 3: Share of population of Canada, by territory/province, 2014
                • Canada’s population is aging and will continue to do so in the coming years
                  • Figure 4: Population aged 65 years and over in Canada, historical and projected (% of total), 1971-2061
                  • Figure 5: Projected trends in the age structure of the Canadian population, 2014-19
                • Over half of Canadians are overweight or obese
                  • Figure 6: Body mass index, self-reported rate of being overweight or obese among Canadian adults, by gender, 2009-13
                • The consumer
                  • Over nine in 10 Canadians eat cereal
                    • Figure 7: Hot and cold cereal usage (any) in the last six months, May 2015
                  • Cereal’s biggest challenge comes from outside of the category
                    • Figure 8: Barriers to eating, May 2015
                  • Nutritional content impacts what consumers purchase
                    • Figure 9: Importance of different factors when purchasing hot and/or cold cereal (any rank), May 2015
                  • New and different flavours and/or texture hold appeal with cereal consumers
                    • Figure 10: Interest in hot and cold cereal types, May 2015
                  • Consumers acknowledge cereal’s versatility
                    • Figure 11: Summary of attitudes, May 2015
                  • What we think
                  • Issues and Insights

                      • An aging population represents a challenge for cereal
                        • The facts
                          • The implications
                            • Millennials and the “baby boomlet” can support cereal’s growth
                              • The facts
                                • The implications
                                  • Chinese Canadians are looking for hot, satiating options
                                    • The facts
                                      • The implications
                                        • Evolving cereal beyond being a convenience food
                                          • The facts
                                            • The implications
                                            • Market Drivers

                                              • Key points
                                                • Demographic overview
                                                  • Canadian population expected to grow
                                                    • Figure 12: Share of population of Canada, by territory/province, 2014
                                                  • Canada’s population is aging and will continue to do so in the coming years
                                                    • Figure 13: Population aged 65 years and over in Canada, historical and projected (% of total), 1971-2061
                                                    • Figure 14: Projected trends in the age structure of the Canadian population, 2014-19
                                                  • Over half of Canadians are overweight or obese
                                                    • Figure 15: Body mass index, self-reported rate of being overweight or obese among Canadian adults, by gender, 2009-13
                                                  • Economic overview
                                                    • Overall negative impact of lower oil prices on the Canadian economy
                                                      • Figure 16: Canada’s GDP, by quarter, Q4 2008-Q4 2014
                                                      • Figure 17: Household disposable incomes and savings in Canada, by quarter, Q4 2008-Q4 2014
                                                      • Figure 18: Canada’s unemployment rate, by gender, January 2008-January 2015
                                                  • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                    • Strengths
                                                      • Weaknesses
                                                      • Trend Application

                                                          • Trend: Make it Mine
                                                            • Trend: Prove It
                                                              • Trend: Sense of the Intense
                                                              • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                • Key points
                                                                  • Overall launches up over the past five years
                                                                    • Figure 19: Percentage of hot and cold cereal launches in Canada, 2010-14
                                                                    • Figure 20: Percentage of hot and cold cereal launches in Canada, by type, 2010-14
                                                                    • Figure 21: Percentage of cold cereal launches in Canada, by top companies, 2010-14
                                                                  • Sugar-based claims prove dominant in 2014
                                                                    • Figure 22: Top claims in cold cereals launched in Canada, 2010-14
                                                                  • Sweet was the top flavour group in 2014 launches (among cold cereals)
                                                                    • Figure 23: Top flavour groups in cold cereals launched in Canada, 2010-14
                                                                  • Transparency leads to trust
                                                                    • Healthy can still be sweet
                                                                      • Packing a punch with protein
                                                                        • Launches in Asia may point to opportunities in Canada
                                                                        • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • Cereal volume and sales declines forecasted to continue through 2020
                                                                              • Figure 24: Canada retail value and volume sales of hot and cold cereal, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
                                                                              • Figure 25: Forecast of Canada retail volume sales of hot and cold cereal, 2010-20
                                                                              • Figure 26: Forecast of Canada retail value sales of hot and cold cereal, 2010-20
                                                                            • Cold cereal leads volume declines
                                                                              • Figure 27: Canada retail value and volume sales of cold cereal, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
                                                                              • Figure 28: Forecast of Canada retail volume sales of cold cereal, 2010-20
                                                                              • Figure 29: Forecast of Canada retail value sales of cold cereal, 2010-20
                                                                            • Hot cereal volume and sales forecast to grow through 2020
                                                                              • Figure 30: Canada retail value and volume sales of hot cereal, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
                                                                              • Figure 31: Forecast of Canada retail volume sales of hot cereal, 2010-20
                                                                              • Figure 32: Forecast of Canada retail value sales of hot cereal, 2010-20
                                                                            • Forecast methodology
                                                                            • Companies and Products

                                                                                • Cereal companies – Overview and innovations
                                                                                  • Kellogg’s
                                                                                    • Overview and product range
                                                                                      • Recent activity and innovation
                                                                                        • General Mills
                                                                                          • Overview and product range
                                                                                            • Recent activity and innovation
                                                                                              • Quaker Oats Company
                                                                                                • Overview and product range
                                                                                                  • Recent activity and innovation
                                                                                                    • Post Foods Canada, Inc.
                                                                                                      • Overview and product range
                                                                                                        • Recent activity and innovation
                                                                                                        • Social Media – Hot and Cold Cereal

                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                            • Market overview
                                                                                                              • Key social media metrics
                                                                                                                • Figure 33: Key social media metrics, July 2015
                                                                                                              • Brand usage and awareness
                                                                                                                • Figure 34: Brand usage and awareness for selected hot and cold cereal brands, May 2015
                                                                                                              • Interactions with hot and cold cereal brands
                                                                                                                • Figure 35: Interactions with selected hot and cold cereal brands, July 2015
                                                                                                              • Social media activity and campaigns
                                                                                                                • What we think
                                                                                                                  • Online conversations
                                                                                                                    • Figure 36: Online conversations for selected hot and cold cereal brands, by day, July 15, 2014-July 15, 2015
                                                                                                                  • Where are people talking about hot and cold cereal brands?
                                                                                                                    • Figure 37: Online conversations for selected hot and cold cereal brands, by page type, July 15, 2014-July 15, 2015
                                                                                                                  • What are people talking about?
                                                                                                                      • Figure 38: Topics of conversation around selected hot and cold cereal brands, July 15, 2014-July 15, 2015
                                                                                                                  • The Consumer – Hot and Cold Cereal Consumption

                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                      • Over nine in 10 Canadians eat cereal
                                                                                                                        • Figure 39: Hot and cold cereal usage (any) in the last six months, May 2015
                                                                                                                        • Figure 40: Hot and cold cereal usage in the last six months, by user group, May 2015
                                                                                                                      • How many cereals are consumers eating?
                                                                                                                        • Figure 41: Hot and cold cereal usage repertoire analysis, May 2015
                                                                                                                        • Figure 42: Hot and cold cereal usage repertoire analysis, by user group, May 2015
                                                                                                                      • Who are the heavy users of cereal?
                                                                                                                        • Who are the light (or non) eaters of cereal?
                                                                                                                        • The Consumer – Barriers to Eating

                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                            • Cereal’s biggest challenge comes from outside of the category
                                                                                                                              • Figure 43: Barriers to eating, May 2015
                                                                                                                            • Only 13% of ‘underdeveloped’ consumers cite satiation as a barrier to eating more cereal
                                                                                                                              • Boredom impacts cereal consumption among young consumers
                                                                                                                                • Figure 44: Barriers to eating – Percent of consumers bored of eating cereal, by age, May 2015
                                                                                                                              • Price and texture are barriers to only one in 10 consumers
                                                                                                                              • The Consumer – Choice Factors

                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                  • Nutritional content impacts what consumers purchase
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 45: Importance of different factors when purchasing hot and/or cold cereal (any rank), May 2015
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 46: Importance of different factors when purchasing hot and/or cold cereal (#1 ranked), May 2015
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 47: Choice factors – Importance of calorie content, by age/gender, May 2015
                                                                                                                                  • Taste remains the top concern for consumers
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 48: Choice factors – Importance of taste, by age, May 2015
                                                                                                                                  • Consumers show less concern over packaging design
                                                                                                                                    • Accommodation is a concern for a third of cereal consumers
                                                                                                                                      • Additives influence a quarter of consumers
                                                                                                                                      • The Consumer – Interest in Hot and Cold Cereal Types

                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                          • New and different flavours and/or texture hold appeal with cereal consumers
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 49: Interest in hot and cold cereal types, May 2015
                                                                                                                                          • Flexibility is key for consumers
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 50: Interest in hot and cold cereal types, attributes related to flexibility, by age, May 2015
                                                                                                                                          • Consumers are looking for transparency and health
                                                                                                                                            • Consumers look beyond what is in the box
                                                                                                                                            • The Consumer – Attitudes towards Hot and Cold Cereal

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • Consumers acknowledge cereal’s versatility
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 51: Summary of attitudes, May 2015
                                                                                                                                                • Opportunity to improve consumer perception around health benefits
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 52: Attitudes around hot and cold cereal, trust in the health benefits cereal promise, by age, May 2015
                                                                                                                                                • Half of Canadians claim to eat one brand of cereal
                                                                                                                                                  • Packaging is a challenge for cereal consumers
                                                                                                                                                    • Consumers see cereal as not being very exciting
                                                                                                                                                    • The Consumer – Hot and Cold Cereal and Chinese Canadians

                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                        • Chinese Canadians eat hot cereal more often
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 53: Hot and cold cereal usage in the last six months (heavy eaters), Chinese Canadians versus overall population, May 2015
                                                                                                                                                        • Chinese Canadians more likely to be influenced nutrient-enriched foods
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 54: Importance of different factors when purchasing hot and/or cold cereal (any rank), Chinese Canadians versus overall population, May 2015
                                                                                                                                                        • Chinese Canadians more likely to show interest in multiple new cereal types
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 55: Interest in hot and cold cereal types, Chinese Canadians versus overall population, May 2015
                                                                                                                                                        • Important to focus on satiation if targeting Chinese Canadians
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 56: Attitudes, Chinese Canadians versus overall population, May 2015
                                                                                                                                                      • The Consumer – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                          • Four target groups
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 57: Target groups hot and cold cereal, May 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Trust Driven (34%)
                                                                                                                                                            • Nostalgic Alternatives (23%)
                                                                                                                                                              • Disengaged (22%)
                                                                                                                                                                • Unconcerned (21%)

                                                                                                                                                                Companies Covered

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                                                                                                                                                                Hot and Cold Cereal - Canada - July 2015

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