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Hot and Cold Cereal - US - August 2015

The hot and cold cereals market continues to see sales declines similar to recent years, mostly driven by the cold cereal segment, with many consumers believing offerings are too processed and not convenient enough. The only growth occurring is in hot cereal, albeit from a small base. To grow the category, manufacturers will need to focus on developing more natural, better-for-you offerings that can be prepared and consumed easily on the go.

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Real sustenance needed
  • Convenience is key
  • Nostalgic nourishment

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Real sustenance needed
            • Figure 1: Attitudes toward cereal, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
          • Convenience is key
            • Figure 2: Attitudes toward cereal, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
          • Nostalgic nourishment
            • Figure 3: Attitudes toward cereal, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
          • The opportunities
            • More filling options are key for growth
              • Figure 4: Cereal consumption, May 2015
            • Consider customization
              • Figure 5: Cereal behaviors, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
            • Don’t limit to breakfast
              • Figure 6: Attitudes toward cereal, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Chilling performance overall
                • Cold cereal takes an icy blow
                  • Hot cereal continues to warm up
                  • Cereal Sales Get Soggy

                    • Declines in cold cereal sales cause category slump
                      • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of hot and cold cereals, at current prices, 2010-20
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • Future of cold cereal sours from not-so-healthful image
                      • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereals, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20, in $ millions
                    • Nourishment for hot cereal sales
                      • Figure 9: Percent change in sales of hot and cold cereal, 2011-20
                    • Other retail channels having success
                      • Figure 10: Total US retail sales of hot and cold cereals by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015, in $ millions
                      • Figure 11: Natural supermarket sales of cereals, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 4/21/13 and 4/19/15, in $ millions
                  • Market Perspective

                    • Protein-, fiber-rich items pose threat
                      • Figure 12: Number of people purchasing high-fiber and high-protein foods while watching diet, 2013-15
                    • Competition from frozen, foodservice
                      • Figure 13: Reasons for eating less cereal, any agree, by generation, May 2015
                  • Market Factors

                    • Sugary reputation still a concern
                      • Figure 14: Cereal consumption - eating more only, by important nutritional factors, April-March 2015
                    • “Baby bounce” expected to impact market
                      • Figure 15: US households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
                  • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                    • More of a good thing
                      • Everything old is new again
                        • Fiber alone not enough
                          • Committing to convenience
                          • Manufacturer Sales of Hot and Cold Cereals

                            • In cold, the large companies struggle most
                              • Figure 16: MULO sales of cold cereal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                            • PepsiCo leads in hot cereal
                              • Figure 17: MULO sales of hot cereal/oatmeal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                          • What’s Working?

                            • More convenience, portability desired
                              • Figure 18: MULO sales of Dole Fruit & Oatmeal, 52 weeks ending April 19, 2015
                            • Gluten-free continues to make gains
                              • Figure 19: MULO sales of Chex Gluten-Free Oatmeal, 52 weeks ending April 19, 2015
                            • Brands working in more health, wellness benefits
                              • Figure 20: MULO sales of Cheerios Protein, 52 weeks ending April 19, 2015
                            • Consumer nostalgia leads to throwback products, packaging
                              • Figure 21: MULO sales of French Toast Crunch, 52 weeks ending April 19, 2015
                          • What’s Struggling?

                            • Sweetened cereals see sales declines
                              • Figure 22: MULO sales of Krave, 52 weeks ending April 19, 2015
                            • High fiber alone isn’t enough
                              • Figure 23: MULO sales of Grape Nuts, 52 weeks ending April 19, 2015
                          • What’s Next?

                            • GMO-free claims keep growing
                              • Removal of artificial ingredients continues
                                • Figure 24: Claims consumers would like to see more, by generation, February 2015
                              • Opportunity for private label innovation is strong
                              • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                • More healthy attributes wanted
                                  • On-the-go options appeal
                                    • Cereal’s snack-worthiness could lead to new opportunities
                                      • Personalization is critical
                                      • Cereal Attitudes

                                        • Sugary cold cereals increasingly get passed up
                                          • Figure 25: Cold cereal consumption, by frequency, May 2015
                                          • Figure 26: Cold cereal consumption, by frequency, compared to previous year, May 2015
                                      • Cereal’s Sweet Spot

                                        • Consumers continue warming up to hot cereal
                                          • Figure 27: Hot cereal consumption, by frequency, compared to previous year, May 2015
                                          • Figure 28: Cereal Consumption, May 2015
                                      • Cereal and Healthfulness

                                        • They’re making smarter choices
                                          • Figure 29: Agreement with attitudes toward food packaging, top five, March 2014
                                      • Cereal Preferences

                                        • People want to personalize
                                          • Figure 30: Cereal behaviors, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
                                      • Cereal Convenience

                                        • On-the-go options important to busy consumers
                                          • Figure 31: Attitudes toward cereal, by demographics, any agree May 2015
                                      • Cereal Satisfaction

                                        • Filling, energizing cereals wanted
                                          • Figure 32: Attitudes toward cereal, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
                                      • Cereal Occasions

                                        • Cereal is a snack-worthy option
                                          • Figure 33: Attitudes toward cereal, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
                                      • Cereal and the Past

                                        • Consumers fondly remember brands from their childhood
                                          • Figure 34: Attitudes toward cereal, any agree, by demographics, May 2015
                                      • Cereal and Private Label

                                        • Store brands are finding favor
                                          • Figure 35: Attitudes toward Cereal, by demographics, May 2015
                                      • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                        • Data sources
                                          • Sales data
                                            • Fan chart forecast
                                              • Consumer survey data
                                                • Abbreviations and terms
                                                  • Abbreviations
                                                    • Terms
                                                    • Appendix – The Market

                                                        • Figure 36: Total US retail sales and forecast of Hot and Cold Cereals, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                        • Figure 37: Total US retail sales and forecast of Hot and Cold Cereals, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                        • Figure 38: Total US retail sales and forecast of Hot and Cold Cereals, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                        • Figure 39: Total US retail sales of Hot and Cold Cereals, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
                                                        • Figure 40: Total US retail sales and forecast of cold cereal, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                        • Figure 41: Total US retail sales and forecast of cold cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                        • Figure 42: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot cereal, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                        • Figure 43: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                        • Figure 44: Total US retail sales of Hot and Cold Cereals, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
                                                        • Figure 45: Natural supermarket sales of cereals, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 4/21/13 and 4/19/15
                                                        • Figure 46: Natural supermarket sales of cold cereals, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 4/21/13 and 4/19/15
                                                        • Figure 47: Natural supermarket sales of hot cereals, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 4/21/13 and 4/19/15
                                                        • Figure 48: Natural supermarket sales of cereals, by gluten-free certification or labeling, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 4/21/13 and 4/19/15
                                                        • Figure 49: Natural supermarket sales of cereals, by organic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 4/21/13 and 4/19/15
                                                        • Figure 50: Natural supermarket sales of cereals, by ancient grains claim, rolling 52 weeks ending 4/21/13 and 4/19/15
                                                    • Appendix – Key Players

                                                        • Figure 51: MULO sales of cereal, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                        • Figure 52: MULO sales of cold cereal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                        • Figure 53: MULO sales of hot cereal/oatmeal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015

                                                    Companies Covered

                                                    • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                    Hot and Cold Cereal - US - August 2015

                                                    £3,174.67 (Excl.Tax)