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House Building - UK - December 2016

“The housebuilding industry is enjoying a period of strong growth and rising profitability, though output remains low compared with historic levels despite that growth. The real issue is that annual house completions are running at about half the 250,000 figure the government identifies as necessary to meet future housing demand, with major obstacles to overcome to bridge that gap.”
– Terry Leggett, Senior Analyst

This Report answers the following key questions:

  • Will the February 2017 government White Paper address the housing shortage? 
  • Are first-time buyers being priced out of the market?
  • Housebuilding is cyclical, so would a slowing economy reduce output despite demand?

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Table of contents

  1. Executive Summary

      • The market
        • Figure 1: UK housebuilding completions, 1970-2016
        • Figure 2: Housebuilding market in Great Britain, 2012-16 and forecast 2017-21
        • Figure 3: Comparison of private and public housing construction output in Great Britain, 2012-16
        • Figure 4: Country segmentation of private sector housing completions in the UK, 2015-16
      • Market factors
        • Figure 5: House price index, 2016-17
        • Figure 6: Residential property transactions in the UK, 2007-16
        • Figure 7: Residential mortgages in the UK, 2007-16
      • Consumer research
        • Figure 8: Preferences for new build versus previously owned, August 2016
        • Figure 9: Available choices with new build, August 2016
      • Companies
        • What we think
        • Key Insights

            • Will the February 2017 government White Paper address the housing shortage?
              • Are first-time buyers being priced out of the market?
                • Housebuilding is cyclical, so would a slowing economy reduce output despite demand?
                • Introduction

                  • Issues in the market
                    • Definitions
                      • Methodology
                        • Abbreviations
                          • Market positioning
                          • UK Economy

                            • Overview
                              • Figure 10: UK GDP quarterly development, 2003-16
                              • Figure 11: UK GDP in economic downturns and recoveries since 1979
                            • Inflation
                              • Interest rates
                                • House prices
                                  • Figure 12: UK House price changes, 2006-16
                                • Consumer spending
                                  • Manufacturing
                                    • Figure 13: UK manufacturing, 2014-16
                                  • Business investment
                                    • Figure 14: UK GFCF 2003-16
                                  • Imports
                                    • Exports
                                    • Market Size

                                      • Key points
                                        • Market size
                                          • Figure 15: Housebuilding market in Great Britain, 2012-16
                                          • Figure 16: UK housebuilding completions, 1970-2016
                                      • Market Segmentation

                                        • Key points
                                          • Market segmentation
                                            • Private housebuilding dominates the market
                                              • Figure 17: Analysis of private housing construction output in Great Britain, 2012-16
                                              • Figure 18: Private new housing starts and completions in England, 2011-16
                                              • Figure 19: UK private sector housing completions, by sector, 1978-2016
                                              • Figure 20: Analysis of new public housing construction output in Great Britain, 2012-16
                                              • Figure 21: Public housing starts and completions in England, 2011-16
                                              • Figure 22: UK public sector housing completions, by sector, 1978-2016
                                              • Figure 23: Additional affordable homes provided in England, by tenure, 2011-16
                                            • Seasonal analysis
                                              • Figure 24: Seasonality of public housing output in Great Britain, 2012-16
                                              • Figure 25: Seasonality of private housing output in Great Britain, 2012-16
                                            • Regional analysis
                                              • Figure 26: Regional public housing construction output in Great Britain, 2012-16
                                              • Figure 27: Country segmentation of local authority housing completions in the UK, 2015-16
                                              • Figure 28: Country segmentation of housing association completions in the UK, 2015-16
                                              • Figure 29: Regional private housing construction output, 2012-16
                                              • Figure 30: Country segmentation of private sector housing completions in the UK, 2015-16
                                          • Market Factors

                                            • Key points
                                              • Market factors
                                                • Economy
                                                  • Demand for housing
                                                    • Figure 31: House price index, 2016-17
                                                  • Government initiatives
                                                    • Figure 32: Stamp duty rates after December 2014
                                                  • Mortgage availability and property transactions
                                                    • Figure 33: Residential property transactions in the UK, 2007-16
                                                    • Figure 34: Residential mortgages in the UK, 2007-16
                                                  • Skilled labour
                                                    • Residential land
                                                    • Industry Structure

                                                      • Key points
                                                        • Industry development
                                                          • Figure 35: Number of businesses classified to housebuilding, 2010-15
                                                          • Figure 36: Employment profile of businesses classified to housebuilding, 2015
                                                        • Company profiles
                                                        • Barratt Developments

                                                            • Figure 37: Financial analysis of Barratt Developments, 2011-16
                                                            • Figure 38: Types of houses completed by Barratt Developments, 2016
                                                            • Figure 39: Customer analysis of Barratt Developments houses, 2016
                                                            • Figure 40: Geographic analysis of Barratt Developments houses, 2016
                                                          • Company strategy
                                                          • Bellway

                                                              • Figure 41: Financial analysis of Bellway, 2012-16
                                                              • Figure 42: House sales analysis of Bellway, 2016
                                                              • Figure 43: Geographic analysis of Bellway house sales, 2016
                                                            • Company strategy
                                                            • Berkeley Group

                                                                • Figure 44: Financial analysis of The Berkeley Group, 2012-16
                                                              • Company strategy
                                                              • Bovis Homes Group

                                                                  • Figure 45: Financial analysis of Bovis Homes Group, 2011-15
                                                                  • Figure 46: Geographic analysis of Bovis Homes house completions, 2015
                                                                  • Figure 47: Types of houses completed by Bovis Homes, 2015
                                                                  • Figure 48: Construction of houses completed by Bovis Homes, 2011-15
                                                                • Company strategy
                                                                • Countryside Properties

                                                                    • Figure 49: Financial analysis of Countryside Properties (UK), 2011-15
                                                                  • Company strategy
                                                                  • Crest Nicholson Holdings

                                                                      • Figure 50: Financial analysis of Crest Nicholson Holdings, 2012-16
                                                                      • Figure 51: Segmentation of Crest Nicholson homes constructed, 2016
                                                                    • Company strategy
                                                                    • Galliford Try

                                                                          • Figure 52: Financial analysis of Galliford Try, 2012-16
                                                                          • Figure 53: Turnover segmentation of Galliford Try, 2016
                                                                          • Figure 54: House completion segmentation of Linden Homes, 2016
                                                                          • Figure 55: Geographic house completion segmentation of Linden Homes, 2016
                                                                        • Company strategy
                                                                        • Morris Homes

                                                                            • Figure 56: Financial analysis of Morris Homes, 2011-15
                                                                          • Company strategy
                                                                          • Persimmon

                                                                              • Figure 57: Financial analysis of Persimmon, 2011-15
                                                                              • Figure 58: Revenue breakdown of Persimmon, 2015
                                                                              • Figure 59: Geographic breakdown of Persimmon, 2015
                                                                            • Company strategy
                                                                            • Redrow

                                                                                  • Figure 60: Financial analysis of Redrow, 2012-16
                                                                                • Company strategy
                                                                                • Taylor Wimpey

                                                                                    • Figure 61: House completion profile for Taylor Wimpey, North Division, 2015
                                                                                    • Figure 62: House completion profile for Taylor Wimpey, Central and South West Division, 2015
                                                                                    • Figure 63: House completion profile for Taylor Wimpey, London and South East Division, 2015
                                                                                    • Figure 64: Financial analysis of Taylor Wimpey, 2011-15
                                                                                  • Company strategy
                                                                                  • Consumer Research

                                                                                    • Purchasing activity
                                                                                        • Figure 65: Sale and purchase of residential property, August 2016
                                                                                      • Type of property bought
                                                                                          • Figure 66: Type of property bought, August 2016
                                                                                        • Available choices with new build
                                                                                            • Figure 67: Available choices with new build, August 2016
                                                                                          • Perceived advantages of new build
                                                                                              • Figure 68: Perceived advantages of new build, August 2016
                                                                                            • Preferences for new build versus previously owned
                                                                                                • Figure 69: Preferences for new build versus previously owned, August 2016
                                                                                            • Forecast

                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                • The Government White Paper
                                                                                                  • Speeding up housebuilding
                                                                                                    • Diversifying the market
                                                                                                      • Homeowners
                                                                                                        • Affordable Rent and Rent to Buy
                                                                                                          • Renters
                                                                                                            • Green belt
                                                                                                              • Empty homes
                                                                                                                • Leasehold
                                                                                                                  • Reactions to the White Paper
                                                                                                                    • Content
                                                                                                                      • Build to rent
                                                                                                                        • Modular construction
                                                                                                                          • Encouraging small builders
                                                                                                                            • The market
                                                                                                                              • Figure 70: Forecast private housing output in Great Britain, 201721
                                                                                                                              • Figure 71: Forecast public housing output in Great Britain, 2017-21
                                                                                                                          • Further Sources & Contacts

                                                                                                                            • Trade Associations
                                                                                                                              • Housebuilders Federation
                                                                                                                                • National Council of Building Material Producers
                                                                                                                                  • National Housebuilding Council
                                                                                                                                    • National Housing Federation
                                                                                                                                      • Chartered Institute of Building (CIOB)
                                                                                                                                        • Construction Industry Research & Information Association
                                                                                                                                          • Trade magazines
                                                                                                                                            • The Builder
                                                                                                                                              • Builder & Engineer
                                                                                                                                                • Building
                                                                                                                                                  • Building Design
                                                                                                                                                    • Building Design & Construction
                                                                                                                                                      • Building News
                                                                                                                                                        • Construction Europe
                                                                                                                                                          • Construction News
                                                                                                                                                            • Housebuilder
                                                                                                                                                              • Housebuilder & Developer
                                                                                                                                                                • Housing Active
                                                                                                                                                                  • International Construction
                                                                                                                                                                    • Local Authority Building & Maintenance
                                                                                                                                                                      • Professional Builder
                                                                                                                                                                        • Professional Builders Merchant
                                                                                                                                                                          • Professional Housebuilder & Property Developer
                                                                                                                                                                            • Show House
                                                                                                                                                                              • UK Construction
                                                                                                                                                                                • Trade exhibitions
                                                                                                                                                                                  • 100% Design 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Affordable Home Ownership and Intermediate Housing Conference and Exhibition 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Annual Conference and Social Housing Exhibition 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Community Land Trusts Conference and Exhibition 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Conference and Exhibition for Smaller Housing Associations 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Housing Development Conference and Exhibition 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Housing Finance Conference and Exhibition 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                • National Homebuilding & Renovating Show 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Northern Homebuilding & Renovating Show 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Scottish Homebuilding & Renovating Show 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Social Housing Exhibition
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Southern Homebuilding & Renovating Show 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • South-West Homebuilding & Renovating Show 2013

                                                                                                                                                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                          To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                                                                          House Building - UK - December 2016

                                                                                                                                                                                                          US $1,321.06 (Excl.Tax)