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Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties - Canada - May 2016

Canadians love ice cream. Some 90% of Canadians claim to eat single flavoured ice cream during the warmer months and with the exception of gelato, more than half of Canadians claim to eat ice cream at some point. Even with ice cream and frozen treats’ relatively high penetration, the market has softened, falling to 6.8 litres per capita in 2015 from 7.7 in 2008, a trend that is occurring across many mature markets. An aging population heightening the importance of nutritional concerns is certainly factoring into the decline. In the face of demographic pressures, this Report identifies opportunities and what considerations are more likely to resonate with different segments to inform targeted innovation and messaging strategies.

This report examines the following issues:

  • Ice cream sales have experienced long-term declining trend
  • Aging population creates headwinds for growth
  • Concerns exist around sugar, but perspective is required

For the purposes of this Report, Mintel has used the following definitions in soliciting consumer feedback:

Types

  • Single flavour ice cream (eg chocolate, vanilla)
  • Ice cream with mix-ins (eg caramel swirl, fruit, nuts, cake bits)
  • Premium/luxury ice cream (eg Häagen-Dazs)
  • Frozen treats (eg ice cream bars/sandwiches, popsicles)
  • Gelato
  • Frozen Yogurt
  • Sherbet, sorbet and ices

Packaging formats

  • Hand held (eg cone, on a stick, sandwich)
  • From a large format package (eg tub, box)
  • From an ice cream shop
  • From an individually sized cup
  • As beverage (eg milkshake, float)

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Types
          • Packaging formats
          • Executive Summary

            • The issues
              • Ice cream sales have experienced long-term declining trend
                • Figure 1: Canadian retail volume sales for ice cream market, 2010-15
              • Aging population creates headwinds for growth
                • Figure 2: Usage of ice cream and frozen novelties by type and by age (any use), March 2016
              • Concerns exist around sugar, but perspective is required
                • Figure 3: Concerns over sugar in ice cream, by age and gender, March 2016
              • The opportunities
                • Canadians show clear interest in artisan and handmade offerings
                  • Figure 4: Top areas of interest in ice cream and frozen treats, March 2016
                • Internationally inspired formats can help stimulate growth in an increasingly diverse country
                  • Figure 5: Interest in ethnically-inspired flavours and international formats, March 2016
                • Younger consumers show higher demand for flavour innovation
                  • Figure 6: Interest in new flavours, by age group, March 2016
                • What it means
                • The Market – What You Need to Know

                  • Market forces fuelling softness
                    • Family pack offerings to support forecasted volume sales growth
                      • Aging Canadian population poses challenge for ice cream growth
                      • Market Size and Forecast

                        • Volume sales projected to grow in-line with population growth
                          • Figure 7: Forecast of Canadian retail value sales and forecast ice cream market, at current prices, 2010-20
                          • Figure 8: Forecast of Canadian retail value sales and forecast ice cream market, at current prices, 2010-20
                          • Figure 9: Forecast of Canadian retail volume sales and forecast ice cream market, 2010-20
                          • Figure 10: Forecast of Canadian retail volume sales and forecast ice cream market, 2010-20
                        • Family pack offerings to support volume sales growth
                          • Figure 11: Forecast of Canadian retail volume sales and forecast ice cream family packs, 2010-20
                          • Figure 12: Forecast of Canadian retail volume sales and forecast ice cream multipacks, 2010-20
                          • Figure 13: Forecast of Canadian retail volume sales and forecast ice cream individually wrapped, 2010-20
                      • Market Factors

                        • Immigration fuelling Canada’s population growth
                          • Figure 14: Foreign-born share of population by G8 country and Australia
                        • Focus on health and weight management to continue
                          • Figure 15: Body mass index, self-reported rate of being overweight or obese among Canadian adults, by gender, 2010-14
                        • Canada’s aging population represents a challenge for ice cream and frozen novelty consumption
                          • Figure 16: Population aged 65 years and over in Canada, historical and projected (% of total), 1971-2061
                      • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                        • Sophistication growing among ice cream consumers
                          • Concerns around sugar serve as a hurdle for growth
                            • Opportunity to capitalize on preference for international foods
                            • What’s Working?

                              • Ice cream consumers are becoming more sophisticated
                                • Figure 17: Chapman’s Amaretto Biscotti Gelato and Sour Cherry Tango Gelato (Canada), September 2015
                                • Figure 18: Breyers Gelato Indulgences, fudge truffle and vanilla caramel (Canada) , May 2016
                            • What’s Struggling?

                              • Concerns over sugar impact consumption among older consumers
                              • What’s Next?

                                • Dairy-free ice cream opens up new options for consumers
                                  • Figure 19: Ben & Jerry’s Non-Dairy Chocolate Fudge Brownie and P.B. & Cookies ice cream, April 2016 (USA)
                                  • Figure 20: Share of annual frozen/chilled desert* launches that include the claims coconut derived and coconut oil derived, 2011-15
                                • Opportunity for ice cream to capitalize on growing acceptance of international foods
                                  • Figure 21: Little Moons Matcha Green Tea Mochi Ice Cream, October 2015 (Germany)
                                  • Figure 22: Heritage Tasty Kulfi, December 2015 (India)
                                  • Figure 23: Kulfi Karma Ice Cream, January 2012 (Canada)
                              • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                • Canadians show interest in artisan/premium options
                                  • Gelato associated with quality and health
                                    • Older consumers less interested in flavour innovation; responding to quality instead
                                      • Chinese Canadians represent an opportunity for category innovation
                                        • “Fun” matures to “indulgence” with age
                                        • Ice Cream and Frozen Treat Usage

                                          • Nearly all Canadians eat ice cream and/or frozen treats
                                            • Figure 24: Ice cream and frozen treat usage by type (any use), March 2016
                                          • Opportunity to drive frequency through less commonly eaten options
                                            • Figure 25: Ice cream and frozen treat usage, by format and frequency, March 2016
                                            • Figure 26: Weekly Ice cream usage, by type and age, March 2016
                                          • ‘Hand-held’ format used by the most Canadians
                                            • Figure 27: Ice cream and frozen treat usage by format (any use), March 2016
                                            • Figure 28: Weekly Ice cream usage, by package format and age, March 2016
                                          • ‘Large’ and ‘hand-held’ formats used most often by Canadians
                                            • Figure 29: Ice cream and frozen treat usage, by format and frequency, March 2016
                                            • Figure 30: Ben & Jerry’s Son of a… ‘Wich, April 2016 (Netherlands)
                                            • Figure 31: The Decadent Peanut Butter Chocolate Chunk Cookie Ice Cream Sandwiches, June 2012 (Canada)
                                            • Figure 32: PC Black Label Madagascar Bourbon Vanilla Ice Cream Bars, May 2014 (Canada)
                                            • Figure 33: Chocoholic Moments Ice Cream, April 2014 (Singapore)
                                            • Figure 34: Chunk-Lovers Collections, September 2014 (Singapore)
                                            • Figure 35: Classic Honeycomb Crunch Assorted Ice Cream, April 2015 (Malaysia)
                                        • Factors that Influence Ice Cream Purchase

                                          • Quality and price tied as the most important considerations for consumers
                                            • Figure 36: Factors behind ice cream and frozen treat selection, March 2016
                                            • Figure 37: Price vs quality as factors behind ice cream and frozen treat selection, by age, March 2016
                                          • ‘Health’ is a lower consideration when choosing ice cream and frozen treats
                                            • Ingredients can be positioned as a point of differentiation, particularly among gelato
                                              • Younger consumers more likely to be influenced by unique flavours
                                                • Figure 38: Importance of new and unique flavours/toppings when choosing ice cream or frozen treats, by age, March 2016
                                            • Associations with Ice Cream and Frozen Treats

                                              • Consumers associate different drivers with different frozen treats
                                                • Figure 39: Characteristics associated with ice cream and frozen treat categories plus yogurt, March 2016
                                              • “Fun” matures to “indulgence” with age
                                                • Figure 40: Associated of indulgence and fun with ice cream, by age group, March 2016
                                            • Innovation Opportunities

                                              • Artisanal positioning resonates with Canadians
                                                • Figure 41: Top areas of interest in ice cream and frozen treats, March 2016
                                                • Figure 42: Emporio La Rosa Orange and Ginger Ice Cream (Chile), November 2015
                                                • Figure 43: Savoy Sorbet Ginger Lemongrass Sorbet (USA), December 2015
                                                • Figure 44: La Belle Aude Lemon Sorbet (France), August 2015
                                              • Exploring flavour variety
                                                • Figure 45: Agreement with being open to new and different ice cream flavours by, gender and age, March 2016
                                                • Figure 46: Top 10 ice cream flavours launched in 2015 (global)
                                              • Room for maturity and sophistication in ice cream/frozen treats
                                                • Figure 47: Baileys Original Custard, January 2016 (Australia)
                                                • Figure 48: Häagen-Dazs Baileys Flavoured Ice Cream, February 2014 (Austria)
                                              • Concerns around sugar can be addressed with a diversified portfolio
                                                • A fifth of Canadians show interest in non-dairy ice cream
                                                  • Figure 49: Percent of Canadians who are interested by dairy-free ice cream, by age, March 2016
                                                • Ice cream can pack a protein punch
                                                  • Figure 50: Percentage of Canadians who are interested ice cream high in protein, by age and gender, March 2016
                                              • Consumers Groups

                                                • Chinese Canadians are avid ice cream and frozen treat consumers
                                                  • Figure 51: Ice cream and frozen treat usage (any use), Chinese Canadians vs overall population, March 2016
                                                • British Columbia and Quebec hold unique characteristics towards ice cream
                                                  • US appears to hold more positive associations with ice cream versus Canadians
                                                    • Figure 52: Ice cream retail market consumption per capita, Canada vs US, 2008-15
                                                    • Figure 53: No/low characteristics associated with ice cream, Canada vs US, March 2016 and April 2015
                                                    • Figure 54: Characteristics associated with gelato, Canada vs US, March 2016 and April 2015
                                                • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                  • Data sources
                                                    • Sales data
                                                      • Fan chart forecast
                                                        • Consumer survey data
                                                          • Abbreviations and terms
                                                            • Abbreviations

                                                            Companies Covered

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                                                            Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties - Canada - May 2016

                                                            £3,199.84 (Excl.Tax)