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Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties - US - July 2016

"As volume sales in the saturated category decline, dollar gains have cooled. While health leads reasons for cutting back, sales of traditionally health-focused products (including low- fat/calories) struggle, and indulgence appears as a strong purchase driver. Category players can aim at health through cues such as natural, premium, and whole, positioning the products as being both good tasting and good for you."

-Beth Bloom, Senior Food & Drink Analyst

This report discusses the following key topics:

  • Dollar sales hold as volume sales decline
  • 22% of frozen treat buyers are buying less
  • Frozen yogurt brands are experiencing a meltdown

This Report examines retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties (often referred to as “frozen treats” in combination for the sake of brevity). For the purposes of this Report, the ice cream and frozen novelties market has been segmented as follows:

  • Ice cream/frozen dairy dessert (including gelato)
  • Frozen novelties (eg, ice cream bars, sandwiches, cones, popsicles, and the like, all with the advantage of hand-held convenience, single portions/portion control, and snack friendliness)
  • Frozen yogurt and dairy alternatives (including non-dairy items made from soy or other dairy alternatives)
  • Sherbet, sorbet, and ices.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Dollar sales hold as volume sales decline
            • Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen treats, at current prices, 2011-21
          • 22% of frozen treat buyers are buying less
            • Figure 2: Frozen treat statements – Change in consumption, April 2016
          • Frozen yogurt brands are experiencing a meltdown
            • Figure 3: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen treats, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
          • The opportunities
            • A focus on quality can appeal to both the taste and health interests of key consumers
              • Figure 4: Frozen treat statements – Premium – Agree, by generation, April 2016
            • Smaller formats appeal to target consumers
              • Figure 5: Frozen treat types – Format, by generation April 2016
            • Variety can boost engagement
              • Figure 6: Frozen treat statements – Flavor – Agree, by generation, April 2016
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Volume sales decline by 5% 2011-15, little dollar sales change
                • Ice cream makes up half of category sales
                  • Frozen yogurt brands are experiencing a meltdown
                    • Foodservice offerings have higher perception of premium
                    • Market Size and Forecast

                      • Volume sales decline by 5% 2011-15, little dollar sales change
                        • Figure 7: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of frozen treats, at current prices, 2011-21
                        • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen treats, at current prices, 2011-21
                        • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen treats, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                        • Figure 10: MULO volume sales of frozen treats, 2011-15
                    • Market Breakdown

                      • Ice cream makes up half of category sales
                        • Figure 11: Total US retail sales of frozen treats, by segment, at current prices, 2016
                      • Gelato continues to grow, but strong growth patterns may soon thaw
                        • Figure 12: Total retail sales of gelato and gelato-based novelties, at current prices, 2011-16
                        • Figure 13: Frozen treat launches, by gelato, 2012-16
                      • Sherbet segment sees overall declines
                        • Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen treats, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
                      • Volume sales decline in all segments at MULO
                        • Figure 15: MULO volume sales of frozen treats, by segment, 2011-15
                    • Market Perspective

                      • Store purchase outpaces foodservice
                        • Figure 16: Purchase location, April 2016
                      • Ice cream shops lead perception of premium
                        • Figure 17: Perceptions of premium, April 2016
                      • 22% of frozen treat buyers are buying less
                        • Figure 18: Frozen treat statements – Change in purchase, April 2016
                      • Half of consumers who are buying less are doing so for health reasons
                        • Figure 19: Frozen treat statements – Change in purchase, by purchasing less, April 2016
                      • Health categories make a play for indulgence
                      • Market Factors

                        • Health concerns remain top of mind with consumers
                          • Figure 20: Important to achieve good health – Any top three rank, May 2015
                        • Most adults believe it’s better to eat well than use diet products
                          • Figure 21: Agreement that well-rounded diet is better than diet products, current diet status, July 2015
                        • FDA reveals updated nutrition facts panel
                          • Safety concerns creep in among key consumer groups
                            • Figure 22: Frozen treat statements – Safety, by generation, April 2016
                            • Figure 23: Frozen treat statements – Safety, by generation and Hispanic origin, April 2016
                            • Figure 24: Frozen treat statements – Safety, by parental status, April 2016
                          • Non-dairy may be one solution to easing fears
                            • Figure 25: Frozen treat statements – Safety, by non-dairy purchase, April 2016
                        • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                          • Unilever maintains the top spot in MULO sales of frozen treats
                            • Blue Bell disappears from the leader board
                              • Indulgence performs well in novelties
                                • Sorbet to the rescue
                                • Company Sales of Frozen Treats

                                  • Unilever maintains the top spot
                                    • Nestlé also sees sales gains
                                      • Blue Bell disappears from the leader board
                                        • Dean Foods boosts ice cream investment
                                          • Company sales of frozen treats
                                            • Figure 26: Company sales of frozen treats, 52-weeks ending March 20, 2016
                                          • Leading companies strengthen their lead
                                            • Figure 27: Company sales of frozen treats, 52-weeks ending March 20, 2016
                                        • What’s Working?

                                          • Unilever brands continue to gain steam
                                              • Figure 28: “Häagen-Dazs, ‘äah Vanilla,’” online video, April 2016
                                              • Figure 29: “Tweets to the Dairy – ‘She looks like a tub of Mint Chocolate Chip,’” online video, April 2016
                                              • Figure 30: “‘It's Complicated’ – Turkey Hill makes life simpler for complicated Facebook users,” online video, October 2015
                                              • Figure 31: MULO sales of ice cream/frozen dairy dessert by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                            • Indulgence performs well in frozen novelties segment
                                              • Figure 32: MULO sales of frozen novelties, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                            • Organic comes close to surpassing nonorganic in natural channels
                                              • Figure 33: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
                                              • Figure 34: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by fat content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
                                              • Figure 35: Ice cream consumption, by type, 2011-15
                                              • Figure 36: Frozen yogurt consumption, by type, 2011-15
                                          • What’s Struggling?

                                            • Sherbet, sorbet, ices segment declines; sorbet to the rescue
                                              • Figure 37: MULO sales of sherbet, sorbets, and ices, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                            • Flavor innovation may also help the segment
                                              • Figure 38: Sherbet, sorbet, ices launches, by leading flavors, 2016*
                                            • Frozen yogurt brands experience a meltdown, non-dairy could put the freeze on losses
                                                • Figure 39: MULO sales of frozen yogurt and non-dairy, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                              • Frozen dairy desserts decline
                                                • Figure 40: Total retail sales of ice cream/frozen dairy dessert, by type, at current prices, 2011-16
                                              • Non-dairy makes up more than a quarter of natural channel sales
                                                • Figure 41: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending April 17, 2016
                                            • What’s Next?

                                              • Implying health without restriction
                                                • Fresh
                                                  • Clean
                                                    • Taking the focus off of sugar
                                                      • Function
                                                        • Sense of place
                                                          • Doubling down on indulgence
                                                            • Buttermilk mentions are on the rise
                                                              • Encouraging trial through new flavors and formats
                                                              • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                • Category experiences high consumer penetration
                                                                  • Premium positioning is more likely to imply good taste than health
                                                                    • The majority of frozen treat buyers are doing so in half-gallon sizes
                                                                      • Flavor dominates purchase drivers
                                                                        • Health plays a role for 19% of frozen treat buyers
                                                                        • Frozen Treat Purchase

                                                                          • Category experiences high consumer penetration
                                                                            • Figure 42: Frozen treat purchase – Any purchase location – Nets, April 2016
                                                                          • Ice cream leads purchase, some change in participation seen
                                                                            • Figure 43: Frozen treat purchase – Any purchase location, April 2016
                                                                          • Younger adults are key targets
                                                                            • Figure 44: Frozen treat purchase – Any purchase location, by generation, April 2016
                                                                          • Hispanics are more likely than non-Hispanics to purchase all products
                                                                            • Figure 45: Frozen treat purchase – Any purchase location, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
                                                                          • Gelato appears most cost prohibitive
                                                                            • Figure 46: Frozen treat purchase – Any purchase location, by HH income, April 2016
                                                                          • Parents are significantly more likely to purchase frozen treats
                                                                            • Figure 47: Frozen treat purchase – Any purchase location, by parental status, April 2016
                                                                            • Figure 48: Frozen treat consumption – Kids (aged 6-11), 2011-15
                                                                            • Figure 49: Frozen treat consumption – Teens (aged 12-17), 2011-15
                                                                        • Frozen Treat Types

                                                                          • Close to a third of frozen treat buyers purchase store brands
                                                                            • Low-/no- claims falling out of favor
                                                                              • Non-dairy purchase small, but growing
                                                                                • Figure 50: Frozen treat types, April 2016
                                                                              • Millennials appear most likely to accept store brands as premium
                                                                                • Figure 51: Frozen treat types, by generation, April 2016
                                                                              • Health-focused options retain strength among Hispanics
                                                                                • Figure 52: Frozen treat types, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
                                                                              • Premium positioning is more likely to imply good taste than health
                                                                                • Figure 53: Frozen treat statements – Premium – Agree, April 2016
                                                                              • …but key consumers are more likely to associate premium with health
                                                                                • Figure 54: Frozen treat statements – Premium – Agree, by generation, April 2016
                                                                                • Figure 55: Frozen treat statements – Premium – Agree, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
                                                                              • Key driver analysis: Premium purchase
                                                                                  • Figure 56: Key drivers of premium/luxury frozen treat purchase format, April 2016
                                                                              • Frozen Treat Flavor

                                                                                • The majority of frozen treat buyers purchase single flavors
                                                                                  • Figure 57: Frozen treat types – Flavor, April 2016
                                                                                • Consumers are open to variety
                                                                                  • Figure 58: Frozen treat statements – Flavor – Agree, April 2016
                                                                                • Variety particularly appeals to Millennials
                                                                                  • Figure 59: Frozen treat statements – Flavor – Agree, by generation, April 2016
                                                                                • Hispanics are ripe for frozen treat introductions
                                                                                  • Figure 60: Frozen treat statements – Flavor – Agree, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
                                                                                • Lower-income earners stick with what they know
                                                                                  • Figure 61: Frozen treat statements – Flavor – Agree, by HH income, April 2016
                                                                                • Snackers are open to variety
                                                                                  • Figure 62: Frozen treat statements – Flavor – Agree, by occasion, April 2016
                                                                              • Frozen Treat Format

                                                                                • The majority of frozen treat buyers are doing so in half-gallon sizes
                                                                                  • Figure 63: Frozen treat types – Format, April 2016
                                                                                • Smaller formats appeal to younger shoppers
                                                                                  • Figure 64: Frozen treat types – Format, by generation April 2016
                                                                                • Pints don’t have strong appeal among Hispanics
                                                                                  • Figure 65: Frozen treat types – Format, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
                                                                                • Small sizes particularly appeal to premium shoppers
                                                                                  • Figure 66: Frozen treat types – Format, by presence of children, April 2016
                                                                                • Variety appeals to parents
                                                                                  • Figure 67: Frozen treat types – Format, by presence of children, April 2016
                                                                                • Small formats give consumers a helping hand
                                                                                  • Figure 68: Frozen treat statements – Small format, April 2016
                                                                              • Frozen Treat Purchase Drivers

                                                                                • Flavor dominates purchase decision, indulgence outperforms health
                                                                                  • Rethinking health
                                                                                    • Figure 69: Frozen treat purchase drivers, April 2016
                                                                                  • Flavor is of particular appeal to older shoppers
                                                                                    • Figure 70: Frozen treat purchase drivers, by generation, April 2016
                                                                                  • Hispanics are less influenced by price, more interested in natural
                                                                                    • Figure 71: Frozen treat purchase drivers, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
                                                                                  • Interest in premium directly correlates with income
                                                                                    • Figure 72: Frozen treat purchase drivers, by HH income, April 2016
                                                                                  • Parents prioritize quality over price
                                                                                    • Figure 73: Frozen treat purchase drivers, by presence of children, April 2016
                                                                                  • Store brand buyers are price conscious
                                                                                    • Figure 74: Frozen treat purchase drivers, by type, April 2016
                                                                                  • A third of frozen treat buyers are willing to pay more for natural
                                                                                    • Figure 75: Frozen treat statements – Natural, April 2016
                                                                                  • …even more so among Millennials and Hispanics
                                                                                    • Figure 76: Frozen treat statements – Natural, by generation, April 2016
                                                                                    • Figure 77: Frozen treat statements – Natural, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
                                                                                  • Natural products appeal to those with safety concerns
                                                                                    • Figure 78: Frozen treat purchase drivers, by safety statements, April 2016
                                                                                  • Local lacks a strong draw
                                                                                    • Figure 79: Frozen treat statements – Local, April 2016
                                                                                • Frozen Treat Consumption

                                                                                  • 40% of frozen treat buyers eat the products weekly
                                                                                    • Figure 80: Frozen treat statements – Agree – Weekly consumption, April 2016
                                                                                  • Variety ties to consumption frequency
                                                                                    • Figure 81: Frozen treat format – Any purchase, by consumption frequency, April 2016
                                                                                    • Figure 82: Frozen treat statements, by consumption frequency, April 2016
                                                                                  • Dessert leads consumption occasion, snack consumption grows
                                                                                    • Figure 83: Frozen treat consumption occasion, April 2016
                                                                                    • Figure 84: Frozen treat format – Any purchase, by consumption occasion, April 2016
                                                                                  • Dessert seekers want indulgence and natural products
                                                                                    • Figure 85: Frozen treat purchase drivers, by consumption occasion, April 2016
                                                                                • Role of Health

                                                                                  • Health plays a role for 19% of frozen treat buyers
                                                                                    • Figure 86: Frozen treat statements – Role of health, April 2016
                                                                                  • Millennials are most likely to say health factors into purchase decision
                                                                                    • Figure 87: Frozen treat statements – Role of health, by generation, April 2016
                                                                                  • Health plays a role for nearly a third of Hispanics
                                                                                    • Figure 88: Frozen treat statements – Role of health, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
                                                                                  • Health plays a stronger role in the purchase decision of higher earners
                                                                                    • Figure 89: Frozen treat statements – Role of health, by HH income, April 2016
                                                                                  • A quarter of parents consider health in frozen treat purchase
                                                                                    • Figure 90: Frozen treat statements – Role of health, by parental status, April 2016
                                                                                  • Hispanic parents are twice as likely to consider health in their purchase
                                                                                    • Figure 91: Frozen treat statements – Role of health, by Hispanic origin and parental status, April 2016
                                                                                • Appendix: Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                                  • Data sources
                                                                                    • Sales data
                                                                                      • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                        • Consumer survey data
                                                                                          • Key Driver Analysis
                                                                                              • Figure 92: Key drivers of premium/luxury frozen treat purchase format – Key driver output, April 2016
                                                                                            • Abbreviations
                                                                                              • Abbreviations
                                                                                              • Appendix: Market

                                                                                                  • Figure 93: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream/frozen dairy dessert, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                                                  • Figure 94: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream/frozen dairy dessert, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                                                  • Figure 95: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                                                  • Figure 96: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                                                  • Figure 97: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                                                  • Figure 98: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                                                  • Figure 99: Total US retail sales and forecast of sherbet/sorbet/ices, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                                                  • Figure 100: Total US retail sales and forecast of sherbet/sorbet/ices, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                                                  • Figure 101: MULO volume sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, 2011-15
                                                                                                  • Figure 102: MULO volume sales of ice cream and frozen dairy desserts, 2011-15
                                                                                                  • Figure 103: MULO volume sales frozen novelties, 2011-15
                                                                                                  • Figure 104: MULO volume sales frozen yogurt/non-dairy, 2011-15
                                                                                                  • Figure 105: MULO volume sales sherbet/sorbet/ices, 2011-15
                                                                                                  • Figure 106: US supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2011-16
                                                                                                  • Figure 107: US convenience store sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2011-16
                                                                                                  • Figure 108: US sales of ice cream and frozen novelties through other retail channels, at current prices, 2011-16
                                                                                                  • Figure 109: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
                                                                                                  • Figure 110: Natural supermarket sales of organic ice cream, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
                                                                                                  • Figure 111: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by gluten-free labeling/certification, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
                                                                                                  • Figure 112: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by gluten-free labeling/certification, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
                                                                                                  • Figure 113: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by GMO ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
                                                                                                  • Figure 114: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by “natural” labeling or perception, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
                                                                                                  • Figure 115: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by presence of alternative sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
                                                                                                  • Figure 116: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by probiotic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
                                                                                              • Appendix: Key Players

                                                                                                  • Figure 117: Manufacturer sales of frozen treats, 52-weeks ending March 20, 2016
                                                                                                  • Figure 118: Total retail sales of gelato and gelato-based novelties, at current prices, 2011-16
                                                                                                  • Figure 119: Frozen treat launches, by gelato, 2012-16
                                                                                                  • Figure 120: Ice cream launches, by leading claims, 2012-16
                                                                                                  • Figure 121: Ice cream launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16
                                                                                                  • Figure 122: Frozen novelty launches, by leading claims, 2012-16
                                                                                                  • Figure 123: Frozen novelty launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16
                                                                                                  • Figure 124: Frozen yogurt launches, by leading claims, 2012-16
                                                                                                  • Figure 125: Frozen yogurt launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16
                                                                                                  • Figure 126: Sherbet, sorbet, ices launches, by leading claims, 2012-16
                                                                                                  • Figure 127: Sherbet, sorbet, ices launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16
                                                                                                  • Figure 128: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
                                                                                                  • Figure 129: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
                                                                                                  • Figure 130: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by fat content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
                                                                                                  • Figure 131: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by lactose-free labeling, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
                                                                                                  • Figure 132: Total retail sales of ice cream and frozen dairy desserts, by type, at current prices, 2011-16
                                                                                                  • Figure 133: Ice cream consumption, by type, 2011-15
                                                                                                  • Figure 134: Frozen yogurt consumption, by type, 2011-15
                                                                                              • Appendix: Consumer

                                                                                                  • Figure 135: Mean quarts of ice cream/sherbet consumed, 2011-15
                                                                                                  • Figure 136: Frozen treat consumption – Teens (aged 12-17), 2011-15
                                                                                                  • Figure 137: Frozen treat consumption – Kids (aged 6-11), 2011-15

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                                                                                              Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties - US - July 2016

                                                                                              US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)