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Ice Cream - China - August 2012

“China’s ice cream market grew from 2007-12 with a volume compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.6%, rising to an estimated 3,072.5 million litres in 2012. Value compound annual growth rate rose at 8.1% from 2007-12, growing to an estimated RMB42.4 billion as manufacturers increasingly passed on rising costs of sugar, milk and other raw materials to consumers to alleviate rising cost pressure.”

– Tan Heng Hong – Senior Research Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • In what ways can off-peak consumption be improved, given the dependence on summer sales?
  • What are the prospects for local/exotic flavours?
  • How can packaged ice cream compete with the growing popularity of ice cream specialty stores?
  • Is there a demand for better-for-you ice cream?

 

Report Introduction:

China’s ice cream market grew from 2007-12 with a volume compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.6%, rising to an estimated 3,072.5 million litres in 2012. Value compound annual growth rate rose at 8.1% from 2007-12, growing to an estimated RMB42.4 billion as manufacturers increasingly passed on rising costs of sugar, milk and other raw materials to consumers to alleviate rising cost pressure.

The ice cream sector is largely dependent on summer sales but our survey has found nearly two thirds of respondents in ten cities surveyed for this report are open to the idea of ice cream suitable for all-year-round consumption, which bodes well for companies wishing to reduce the seasonality of their ice cream sales. Consumers continue to prefer the classic flavours of chocolate, vanilla and strawberry as well as milk but their openness to different flavour experience means opportunities for ice cream companies to engage them through new and exotic flavours.

On-trade such as ice cream specialty stores is becoming an increasing threat to the retail sector as on-trade is able to provide customers with a better sensorial experience at a time when income levels are rising. Packaged ice cream makers will need to reengage with these consumers to match their increasing level of sophistication in consumption.

Consumer data and news reports increasingly suggest consumers are concerned about health and food safety issues surrounding ice cream consumption. The lack of ice cream with health-related claims shows manufacturers have yet to respond effectively to the changing needs of consumers, which opens the prospect for better-for-you ice cream.” 

 

Liqueurs - UK - January 2012

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Report structure
        • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Figure 1: Ice cream market sales, by volume and value, 2007-12
          • The forecast
            • Figure 2: Forecast – value sales of ice cream, 2007-17
            • Figure 3: Forecast – volume sales of ice cream, 2007-17
          • Companies
            • Figure 4: Ice cream market share, by value, 2009-11
          • Market segmentation
            • Figure 5: Ice cream sales volume and flavour, by market segment, 2009-12
          • Issues
            • Market struggles with seasonal demand
              • Figure 6: Attitudes towards ice cream for all-year-round consumption, June 2012
            • Flavour holds to key to consumer engagement
              • Figure 7: Attitudes towards trying ice cream with new flavours and buying ice cream with exotic flavours, June 2012
            • Competitive landscape becoming challenging
              • Figure 8: Locations of eating ice cream, by income, June 2012
            • Opportunities in better-for-you ice cream
              • Figure 9: Attitudes towards ice cream, June 2012
          • Market Struggles with Seasonal Demand

            • Issues at a glance
              • Ice cream is dependent on summer sales
                • Figure 10: Top five occasions of eating ice cream, June 2012
                • Figure 11: Average monthly temperature of 31 cities* in China, 2007-10
                • Figure 12: Percentage breakdown of ice cream production volume, by month, 2009-11
              • Consumers open to all-year-round consumption
                • Figure 13: Attitudes towards ice cream for all-year-round consumption, June 2012
                • Figure 14: Attitudes towards ice cream for all-year-round consumption, by city, June 2012
              • Lack of availability is an issue in off-peak consumption
                  • Figure 15: Location of buying ice cream, by retail channel, June 2012
                • Vending machines may improve accessibility during off-season
                  • Figure 16: Attitudes towards buying ice cream from vending machines, by city, June 2012
                • At-home consumption can drive interest during off-season
                  • Figure 17: Location of eating ice cream, June 2012
                  • Figure 18: Attitudes towards always having ice cream in the fridge, June 2012
                  • Figure 19: Household ownership of refrigerators, by urban/rural divide, 2000-10
                  • Figure 20: Leisure activities during weekdays, 2011
                  • Figure 21: Occasions of eating ice cream, June 2012
                • Creating more ice cream moments through special occasions
                  • Figure 22: Occasions of buying chocolate for other people, January 2012
                  • Figure 23: Occasion of eating ice cream, by age and income, June 2012
                • What does it mean?
                • Flavour Holds the Key to Consumer Engagement

                  • Issues at a glance
                    • Flavour is top choice factor when buying ice cream
                      • Figure 24: Top five factors considered when buying ice cream, June 2012
                      • Figure 25: Top five factors considered when buying ice cream, China, US and the UK, June 2012, March 2011 and May 2011
                    • Chocolate, vanilla, strawberry, milk are clear favourites
                      • Figure 26: Top six flavours of ice cream bought, June 2012
                      • Figure 27: New product development in ice cream, launches by flavour, top six, China and global, 2009-first half 2012*
                    • Willingness to try new/exotic flavours provides new engagement opportunities
                      • Figure 28: Attitudes towards trying ice cream with new flavours and buying ice cream with exotic flavours, June 2012
                      • Figure 29: Repertoire of flavours of ice cream bought, June 2012
                    • Local flavours working to narrow the gap with classic favourites
                      • Figure 30: Flavours of ice cream bought, by city, June 2012
                      • Figure 31: New product development in ice cream, launches by top nine local flavours, 2009-first half 2012*
                    • Exotic flavours can keep consumers engaged
                      • Figure 32: New product development in ice cream, launches by top ten exotic flavours, 2009-11
                      • Figure 33: Flavours of ice cream bought, June 2012
                    • What does it mean?
                    • Development in Foodservice Can Drive Overall Market

                      • Issues at a glance
                        • Top ten brands dominated by ‘local’ players
                          • Figure 34: Ice cream market share (value), by foreign and local, 2009-11
                          • Figure 35: Ice cream market share (value), by foreign and local, 2009-11
                          • Figure 36: Brands of ice cream bought, by tier city, June 2012
                          • Figure 37: Brands of ice cream bought, by tier city, June 2012 (continued)
                        • Smaller regional brands start to compete
                          • Figure 38: Brands of ice cream bought, by city, June 2012
                          • Figure 39: Locations of buying ice cream, June 2012
                        • Growing middle class helps drive the on-trade
                          • Figure 40: Locations of eating ice cream, by income, June 2012
                          • Figure 41: Defining the middle class in China, 2000 and 2011
                          • Figure 42: Attitudes towards shopping, top eight by any agree, April 2012
                          • Figure 43: Brands of ice cream bought through the foodservice channel, by income, June 2012
                          • Figure 44: Occasions of eating ice cream, by income, June 2012
                          • Figure 45: Attitudes towards ice cream sold in supermarkets, by income, June 2012
                          • Figure 46: Location of buying ice cream, by income, June 2012
                        • Retail can strengthen premium, exclusive image in off-trade
                          • Figure 47: Frequency of grocery shopping, by outlet type, by income, April 2012
                        • Baxy leads the way
                          • Exotic flavours can enhance appeal of packaged ice cream
                            • Figure 48: Attitudes towards ice cream with new flavours and exotic flavours, by income, June 2012
                            • Figure 49: Buying ice cream through ice cream speciality outlet, by income, June 2012
                            • Figure 50: China’s fresh durian imports, by volume and value, 2009-11
                          • What does it mean?
                          • Opportunities in Better-for-you Ice Cream

                            • Issues at a glance
                              • Food safety/health not key choice factors but concerns remain
                                • Figure 51: Top seven factors considered when buying ice cream, June 2012
                                • Figure 52: Attitudes towards ice cream, June 2012
                              • Health is a growing issue in food and drinks
                                • Fears remain over safety of ice cream
                                  • Dairy industry plagued by scandal
                                    • Underrepresentation of better-for-you ice cream in new retail launches
                                      • Figure 53: Top four health-related claim categories in new product launches, global and China, 2009-first half 2012
                                      • Figure 54: Top seven health-related claims in new product launches, 2009-first half 2012
                                    • Foodservice gelato has upper hand in health image
                                      • Sorbet can fulfil dietary concerns
                                        • Figure 55: Frequencies of eating ice cream, June 2012
                                        • Figure 56: Percentage breakdown by new product launches, by sub-category, 2009-first half of 2012
                                        • Figure 57: Attitudes towards more varieties of sorbet, June 2012
                                        • Figure 58: Top five claims of new sorbet launches worldwide*, 2009-first half 2012
                                      • Quality of healthier lines remains a challenge
                                        • Figure 59: Attitudes towards health attributes in ice cream, by income, June 2012
                                      • Soy-based ice cream can fill a small market niche
                                        • Figure 60: Comparing the nutritional contents of two Double Rainbow Gourmet ice cream
                                        • Figure 61: Tianbao Green Foods ice cream sales, 2008-11
                                      • What does it mean?
                                      • The Future of the Market

                                          • Figure 62: Fan chart forecast for ice cream, at best-, worst-, and central-case scenario, by value, 2007-17
                                          • Figure 63: Fan chart forecast for ice cream, at best-, worst-, and central-case scenario, by volume, 2007-17
                                          • Figure 64: China’s ice cream actual and forecast volume and value, 2007-17
                                        • Methodology
                                        • Appendix – Market Size, Segmentation and Share

                                            • Figure 65: Ice cream market sales, by volume and value, 2007-12
                                            • Figure 66: Ice cream sales volume and flavour, by market segment, 2009-12
                                            • Figure 67: Ice cream market share, by value, 2009-11
                                            • Figure 68: Ice cream value market share, by foreign and local, 2009-11
                                        • Appendix – Market Forecast

                                            • Figure 69: China’s ice cream actual and forecast volume and value, 2007-17
                                        • Appendix – Frequencies of Eating Ice Cream

                                            • Figure 70: Frequencies of eating ice cream, June 2012
                                            • Figure 71: Frequencies of eating ice cream, June 2012
                                            • Figure 72: Most popular frequencies of tubs/pots of premium ice cream, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 73: Next most popular frequencies of tubs/pots of premium ice cream, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 74: Most popular frequencies of tubs/pots of standard ice cream (non-premium), by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 75: Next most popular frequencies of tubs/pots of standard ice cream (non-premium), by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 76: Most popular frequencies of small/individual pots of ice cream, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 77: Next most popular frequencies of small/individual pots of ice cream, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 78: Most popular frequencies of ice cream sticks, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 79: Next most popular frequencies of ice cream sticks, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 80: Most popular frequencies of ice cream cones, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 81: Next most popular frequencies of ice cream cones, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 82: Most popular frequencies of ice lollies, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 83: Next most popular frequencies of ice lollies, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 84: Most popular frequencies of scoop ice cream, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 85: Next most popular frequencies of scoop ice cream, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 86: Most popular frequencies of soft ice cream, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 87: Next most popular frequencies of soft ice cream, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 88: Most popular frequencies of sorbet (made from real juice and does not contain milk), by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 89: Next most popular frequencies of sorbet (made from real juice and does not contain milk), by demographics, June 2012
                                        • Appendix – The Consumer – Location of Eating Ice Cream

                                            • Figure 90: Location of eating ice cream, June 2012
                                            • Figure 91: Location of eating ice cream, by demographics, June 2012
                                        • Appendix – Occasions of Eating Ice Cream

                                            • Figure 92: Occasions of eating ice cream, June 2012
                                            • Figure 93: Most popular occasions of eating ice cream, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 94: Next most popular occasions of eating ice cream, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 95: Other occasions of eating ice cream, by demographics, June 2012
                                        • Appendix – Location of Buying Ice Cream

                                            • Figure 96: Location of buying ice cream, June 2012
                                            • Figure 97: Most popular location of buying ice cream through retail channel, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 98: Next most popular location of buying ice cream through retail channel, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 99: Location of buying ice cream through foodservice, by demographics, June 2012
                                        • Appendix – Brands of Ice Cream Bought

                                            • Figure 100: Brands of ice cream bought, June 2012
                                            • Figure 101: Most popular brands of ice cream bought through retail channel, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 102: Next most popular brands of ice cream bought through retail channel, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 103: Other brands of ice cream bought through retail channel, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 104: Brands of ice cream bought through foodservice, by demographics, June 2012
                                        • Appendix – Brand of Ice Cream Most Bought

                                            • Figure 105: Brand of ice cream most bought, June 2012
                                            • Figure 106: Brand of ice cream most bought, by demographics, June 2012
                                        • Appendix – Flavours of Ice Cream Bought

                                            • Figure 107: Flavours of ice cream bought, June 2012
                                            • Figure 108: Most popular flavours of ice cream bought, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 109: Next most popular flavours of ice cream bought, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 110: Other flavours of ice cream bought, by demographics, June 2012
                                        • Appendix – Number of Flavours Bought

                                            • Figure 111: Repertoire of flavours of ice cream bought, June 2012
                                            • Figure 112: Repertoire of flavours of ice cream bought, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 113: Repertoire of flavours of ice cream bought, by flavours of ice cream bought, June 2012
                                        • Appendix – Factors Considered When Buying Ice Cream

                                            • Figure 114: Factors considered when buying ice cream, June 2012
                                            • Figure 115: Most popular factors considered when buying top ranked ice cream, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 116: Next most popular factors considered when buying top ranked ice cream, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 117: Most popular factors considered when buying second ranked ice cream, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 118: Next most popular factors considered when buying second ranked ice cream, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 119: Most popular factors considered when buying third ranked ice cream, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 120: Next most popular factors considered when buying third ranked ice cream, by demographics, June 2012
                                        • Appendix – Attitudes towards Ice Cream

                                            • Figure 121: Attitudes towards ice cream, June 2012
                                            • Figure 122: Agreement with the statements ‘I am interested in ice cream with added health benefits’ and ‘I pay much attention to calories when buying ice cream’, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 123: Agreement with the statements ‘Low-fat, low-calorie, low-sugar ice cream doesn’t taste as good as regular ice cream’ and ‘Local brand ice cream tastes as good as foreign brands’, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 124: Agreement with the statements ‘I'd like to see more varieties of sorbets’ and ‘I am concerned about health problems associated with eating too much ice cream’, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 125: Agreement with the statements ‘I like to buy ice cream with exotic flavours’ and ‘I think it will be convenient for me to buy ice cream from a vending machine’, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 126: Agreement with the statements ‘I like to try ice cream with new flavours’ and ‘I think ice cream is suitable for all-year-round consumption’, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 127: Agreement with the statements ‘Sometimes it is not easy to find a place to buy better quality ice cream’ and ‘I am concerned about the quality of local brand ice cream’, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 128: Agreement with the statements ‘I always have ice cream in my fridge’ and ‘The quality of ice cream sold in supermarkets is not as good as those sold in ice cream specialty outlets’, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 129: Most popular attitudes towards ice cream (any agree), by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 130: Next most popular attitudes towards ice cream (any agree), by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 131: Other attitudes towards ice cream (any agree), by demographics, June 2012
                                        • Appendix – Number of Brands Bought

                                            • Figure 132: Repertoire of brands of ice cream bought, June 2012
                                            • Figure 133: Repertoire of brands of ice cream bought through retail channel, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 134: Repertoire of brands of ice cream bought through foodservice, by demographics, June 2012
                                            • Figure 135: Repertoire of brands of ice cream bought, by brands of ice cream bought through retail channel, June 2012
                                            • Figure 136: Repertoire of brands of ice cream bought, by brands of ice cream bought through foodservice, June 2012

                                        Companies Covered

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                                        Ice Cream - China - August 2012

                                        £3,273.18 (Excl.Tax)