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Ice Cream - UK - July 2011

  • What local and global factors are affecting the ice cream market?
  • What new product developments has the market seen in recent years?
  • What do demographic changes mean for the ice cream market?

"The consumer research for this report suggests opportunities for brands to engage consumers through factors other than price. While there is only limited interest in the low-fat and low-calorie proposition, added health sparks an interest among a sizeable minority. Flavour development can also play a role in engaging consumers, with nearly half of users reporting to like to try exotic and unusual flavours."

– Kiti Soininen, Head of UK Food and Drink Research

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Price inflation fuels value growth despite falling volume sales
                • Tubs are still the largest segment
                  • Forecast
                    • Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by value, 2006-16
                  • Market factors
                    • Conflicting attitudes to healthy eating pose challenges and opportunities
                      • Local and global factors affect ice cream
                        • Demographic changes set to support demand for ice cream
                          • Companies, brands and innovation
                            • Unilever leads in both tubs and handhelds
                              • Figure 2: Leading brands’ value shares in tubs and pots segment, 2010
                              • Figure 3: Leading brands’ value shares in handheld ice cream, 2010
                            • Brands dominate new product development
                              • Ad spend posts rapid growth in 2009 and 2010
                                • Figure 4: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on ice cream, 2006-10
                              • The consumer
                                • Handheld formats see usage rise
                                  • Supermarkets are key channel for ice cream purchases
                                    • Ice cream is first and foremost eaten as a treat
                                      • Figure 5: Occasions for eating ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, May 2011
                                    • Favourite flavour holds the lead among choice factors
                                      • Figure 6: Choice factors in buying ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, May 2011
                                    • Half of users stock up on ice cream on promotion
                                      • Figure 7: Attitudes towards ice cream, sorbets and frozen yogurt, May 2011
                                    • What we think
                                    • Issues in the Market

                                        • How can brands compete on grounds other than price?
                                          • How much potential is there for frozen yogurt in the retail channel?
                                            • Can 'light' variants help to drive demand?
                                              • What factors are most important to consumers when choosing ice cream?
                                              • Future Opportunities

                                                  • Trend: Simple Balance for Health
                                                    • Trend: Brand Review
                                                    • Internal Market Environment

                                                      • Key points
                                                        • Impulse sector reliant on warm weather
                                                          • Figure 8: Summer sunshine and rainfall trends, 2004-10
                                                        • Recession boosts indulgent eating
                                                          • Figure 9: Trends in eating desserts/treats, 2006-10
                                                        • Rise in obesity levels keeps healthy eating on the nation’s agenda
                                                          • Figure 10: Trends in obesity, 2006-10
                                                          • Figure 11: Trends in healthy lifestyles and eating habits, 2006-10
                                                      • Broader Market Environment

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • The definition of ice cream dampens NPD in lighter variants
                                                            • Rising commodity prices put pressure on manufacturers
                                                              • Figure 12: UK farmgate price of milk, UK, January 2008-February 2011
                                                              • Figure 13: Price of refined granulated sugar, UK, January 2007-February 2011
                                                            • Storage space is growing with more fridge freezers
                                                              • Figure 14: Household ownership of freezers (separate from refrigerator) and combined fridge/freezers, 2006-10
                                                            • No rebound in consumer confidence in the short term
                                                              • Figure 15: GFK NOP consumer confidence index, January 2006-April 2011
                                                            • Premium ice cream set to benefit from the rising number of ABs
                                                              • Figure 16: Projected trends in the UK population, by socio-economic group, 2011-16
                                                            • Growth in the number of 5-9-year-olds will support demand
                                                              • Figure 17: Projected trends in the UK population, by age group, 2011-16
                                                          • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                            • Strengths
                                                              • Weaknesses
                                                              • Competitive Context

                                                                • Key point
                                                                  • Ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt face competition from healthier and indulgent treats
                                                                    • Figure 18: UK retail value sales in current terms for selected categories competing with ice cream, 2006-10
                                                                  • Growth in fresh fruit sales fuelled by rising prices
                                                                    • Healthy eating trend is putting pressure on chocolate consumption
                                                                      • Biscuits offer a cheap treat
                                                                        • Yogurt enjoys a rare position as a healthy treat
                                                                        • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • Ice cream desserts dominates new product launches
                                                                              • Figure 19: NPD in ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by type, 2006-11*
                                                                            • Branded players lead in NPD
                                                                              • Figure 20: NPD in ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt – branded vs. own label, 2006-11*
                                                                              • Figure 21: Top ten companies in ice cream sorbet and frozen yogurt, by NPD, 2008-11*
                                                                            • Vegetarian, no additives/preservatives and environmentally friendly packaging feature strongly among new launches
                                                                              • Figure 22: Most common claims in NPD in ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, January 2010-June 2011
                                                                            • Allergen-free launches become increasingly common
                                                                              • Smaller portion sizes cater for moderation
                                                                                • 100% natural ingredients
                                                                                  • Chocolate brands continue to extend into the ice cream market
                                                                                    • What’s your flavour?
                                                                                      • Figure 23: NPD in ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, launches by flavour, top 8, 2006-11**
                                                                                  • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • Ice cream suppliers pass on commodity price rises onto consumer
                                                                                        • Figure 24: UK retail value and volume sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, 2006-11
                                                                                      • Forecast
                                                                                        • Figure 25: Forecast of UK retail sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by value, 2006-16
                                                                                        • Figure 26: UK retail value sales and forecast of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, 2006-16
                                                                                      • Forecast methodology
                                                                                      • Segment Performance

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • Ice cream sector dominates total market
                                                                                            • Figure 27: UK retail value sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by type, 2008-10
                                                                                          • Tubs lead the way
                                                                                            • Figure 28: UK retail value sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by format, 2008-10
                                                                                        • Market Share

                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                            • Unilever’s Ben & Jerry’s and Carte D’Or lead in tubs market
                                                                                              • Figure 29: Leading brands’ value shares in tubs of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by brand, 2008-10
                                                                                            • Unilever’s Magnum is the big hitter in the handheld market
                                                                                              • Figure 30: Leading brands’ value shares in handheld ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, 2008-10
                                                                                          • Companies and Products

                                                                                            • Manufacturers and brands
                                                                                              • Figure 31: Selected leading companies in the ice cream market in the UK and their brands, 2010
                                                                                            • Fredericks Dairies
                                                                                              • General Mills
                                                                                                • Green & Black’s
                                                                                                  • Mars
                                                                                                    • R&R
                                                                                                      • Unilever
                                                                                                      • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                          • Adspend on ice cream grows rapidly since 2008
                                                                                                            • Figure 32: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on ice cream, 2006-10
                                                                                                            • Figure 33: Advertising expenditure in the UK ice cream market, by product category, 2008-10
                                                                                                          • TV dominates adspend
                                                                                                            • Figure 34: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on ice cream, by medium, 2008-10
                                                                                                          • Unilever leads in adspend
                                                                                                            • Figure 35: Advertising expenditure in the UK ice cream market, by company, 2008-10
                                                                                                          • General Mills’ Häagen-Dazs was biggest ice cream advertiser in 2010
                                                                                                              • Figure 36: Advertising expenditure in the UK ice cream market, by top ten brands, 2008-10
                                                                                                            • Adspend is seasonal and mirrors new product launches
                                                                                                              • Figure 37: Average monthly NPD and adspend for ice cream, cumulative 2008-11*
                                                                                                          • Brand Research

                                                                                                                • Figure 38: Attitudes towards and usage of ice cream brands, April 2011
                                                                                                              • Brand attitudes
                                                                                                                • Figure 39: Attitudes by ice cream brand, April 2011
                                                                                                              • Correspondence analysis
                                                                                                                • Brand personality
                                                                                                                  • Figure 40: Ice cream brand personality – macro image, April 2011
                                                                                                                  • Figure 41: Ice cream brand personality – micro image, April 2011
                                                                                                                • Brand experience
                                                                                                                  • Figure 42: Ice cream brand usage, April 2011
                                                                                                                  • Figure 43: Satisfaction with various ice cream brands, April 2011
                                                                                                                  • Figure 44: Consideration of ice cream brands, April 2011
                                                                                                                  • Figure 45: Consumer perceptions of current ice cream brand performance, April 2011
                                                                                                                • Net promoter score
                                                                                                                    • Figure 46: Ice cream brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, April 2011
                                                                                                                  • Brand index
                                                                                                                    • Figure 47: Ice cream brand index, April 2011
                                                                                                                    • Figure 48: Ice cream brand index vs. recommendation, April 2011
                                                                                                                  • Target group analysis
                                                                                                                    • Figure 49: Target groups, April 2011
                                                                                                                    • Figure 50: Ice cream brand usage, by target groups, April 2011
                                                                                                                  • Group One – The Conformists
                                                                                                                    • Group Two – Simply the Best
                                                                                                                      • Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
                                                                                                                        • Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
                                                                                                                          • Group Five – The Individualists
                                                                                                                          • Channels to Market

                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                              • Multiples dominate the take-home market
                                                                                                                                • Figure 51: UK retail value sales of take-home ice cream, by outlet type, 2008-10
                                                                                                                              • CTNs lead in impulse ice cream
                                                                                                                                • Figure 52: UK retail value sales of wrapped impulse ice cream, by outlet type, 2008-10
                                                                                                                            • The Consumer – Trends in Usage of Ice Cream

                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                • Tubs and blocks
                                                                                                                                  • Usage declines in 2010
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 53: Trends in frequency of use of ice cream in tubs and blocks, 2009-10
                                                                                                                                  • Tubs appeal to older consumers
                                                                                                                                    • Bars, cones, sticks and mini tubs
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 54: Trends in frequency of eating ice cream bars, cones, sticks and tubs (including mini versions), 2006-10
                                                                                                                                    • The Consumer – Usage of Ice Cream, Sorbet and Frozen Yogurt by Type

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                        • Standard tubs are top choice
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 55: Usage of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by type, May 2011
                                                                                                                                        • The Consumer – Purchase of Ice Cream, Sorbet and Frozen Yogurt by Location

                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                            • Supermarkets are the main purchase channel
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 56: Purchases of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by location, May 2011
                                                                                                                                              • A visit to the ice cream van appeals to families
                                                                                                                                                • The food service channel plays a small role in ice cream
                                                                                                                                                • The Consumer – Usage of Ice Cream, Sorbet and Frozen Yogurt by Occasion

                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                    • Ice cream is first and foremost a treat
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 57: Occasions for eating ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • …but enjoys limited appeal for serving on special occasions and to guests
                                                                                                                                                      • The Consumer – Choice Factors in Buying Ice Cream, Sorbet and Frozen Yogurt

                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                          • Favourite flavour is key choice factor for two in three
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 58: Choice factors in buying ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • Flavour comes first
                                                                                                                                                              • Price and promotions play a key role in the market
                                                                                                                                                                • Brands matter to a sizeable minority, low-fat is of niche interest
                                                                                                                                                                • The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Ice Cream, Sorbet and Frozen Yogurt

                                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                    • Quality trumps calories for half the nation
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 59: Attitudes towards ice cream, sorbets and frozen yogurt, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                      • Nearly half of users stock up on ice cream on promotion
                                                                                                                                                                        • Half of users are interested in new flavours
                                                                                                                                                                          • Quality of ingredients trumps calories for half of users
                                                                                                                                                                          • Consumer – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                              • Five target groups
                                                                                                                                                                                • Loyalists (20%)
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Price Conscious (22%)
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Quality Enthusiasts (17%)
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Weight Watchers (24%)
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Purists (17%)
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Internal Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 60: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 61: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 62: Ownership of freezer/combined fridge/freezer, by demographics, 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 63: UK retail value sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, best and worst case forecast, 2011-16
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 64: UK retail volume sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt (litres), 2006-16
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 65: UK retail volume sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, 2006-16
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 66: UK retail volume sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, best and worst case forecast, 2011-16
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 67: Brand usage, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 68: Brand commitment, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 69: Brand momentum, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 70: Brand diversity, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 71: Brand satisfaction, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 72: Brand recommendation, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 73: Brand attitude, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 74: Brand image – Macro image, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 75: Brand image – Micro image, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 76: Profile of target groups, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 77: Psychographic segmentation, by target groups, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 78: Brand usage, by target groups, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Brand index
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 79: Brand index, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – The Consumer – Usage of Ice Creams

                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 80: Frequency of use of ice cream in tubs and blocks, by demographics, 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 81: Trends in frequency of eating ice cream bars, cones, tubs and sticks (including mini versions), 2006-10
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 82: Frequency of eating ice cream bars, cones, tubs and sticks (including mini versions), by demographics, 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – The Consumer – Usage of Ice Cream, Sorbet and Frozen Yogurt by Type

                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 83: Most popular types of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 84: Next most popular types of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – The Consumer – Purchase of Ice Cream, Sorbet and Frozen Yogurt by Location

                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 85: Most popular locations to purchase ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 86: Next most popular locations to purchase ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – The Consumer – Usage of Ice Cream, Sorbet and Frozen Yogurt by Occasion

                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 87: Most popular usage of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt by occasion, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 88: Next most popular usage of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt by occasion, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – The Consumer – Choice Factors in Buying Ice Cream, Sorbet and Frozen Yogurt

                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 89: Most popular choice factors in buying ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 90: Next most popular choice factors in buying ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Ice Cream, Sorbet and Frozen Yogurt

                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 91: Agreement with the statements ‘I stock up on ice cream when it’s on promotion’ and ‘I usually buy whichever brand is on offer’, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 92: Agreement with the statements ‘I have switched to a cheaper brand/own-label ice cream to save money’ and ‘I like to try new flavours rather than stick to one all the time’, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 93: Agreement with the statements ‘I’m interested in exotic/unusual flavours’ and ‘I would buy products with superfood ingredients (eg baobab, green tea etc)’, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 94: Agreement with the statements ‘I would buy products with added health benefits (eg probiotic, antioxidants etc)’ and ‘I pay attention to calories when buying ice cream’, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 95: Agreement with the statements ‘High quality ingredients are more important than calories’ and ‘“Light” ice cream doesn’t taste as good as regular’, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 96: Agreement with the statements ‘I’d like to see a bigger selection of frozen yogurts at the supermarket’ and ‘I’d like to see a bigger selection of sorbets at the supermarket’, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 97: Target groups, by demographics, May 2011

                                                                                                                                                                                        Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Advertising Standards Authority
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Aldi Stores Ltd (UK & Ireland)
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Amazon.co.uk
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                        • ASOS (UK retail sales)
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Bank of England
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Beechdean Dairies
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Ben & Jerry's (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                        • British Market Research Bureau (BMRB)
                                                                                                                                                                                        • British Sky Broadcasting Group plc (BSkyB)
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Cadbury Schweppes Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Cream o' Galloway Dairy Company Ltd.
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Del Monte Foods
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Department of Health
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Fairtrade Foundation (The)
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Fayrefield Foods
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Food Standards Agency
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Frank's Ice Cream
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Frederick's Dairies
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Freeview
                                                                                                                                                                                        • General Mills Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Gfk NOP
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Government Actuary's Department (GAD)
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Green & Black's Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Häagen-Dazs
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Heston Blumenthal
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Ice Cream Alliance
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Innocent Drinks Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                        • J. Sainsbury
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Kantar Media
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Kraft Foods UK
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Lidl (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                        • LOVEFiLM International Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Mackie's Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Marks & Spencer
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Mars Incorporated
                                                                                                                                                                                        • mmO2 plc
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Nandos UK
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Nestle Rowntree
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Nestlé UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Netto Foodstores Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Oaktree Capital Management Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Office for National Statistics
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Orange plc (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Paramount Pictures Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Pillsbury
                                                                                                                                                                                        • R&R Ice Cream Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Rainforest Alliance
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Richmond Ice Cream Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Styles Farmhouse Ice Cream
                                                                                                                                                                                        • T-Mobile (UK) Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Tate & Lyle
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Thorntons Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Unilever Bestfoods UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                        • United Biscuits
                                                                                                                                                                                        • United Nations
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Vimto Soft Drinks
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Virgin Media Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Virgin Mobile
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Vodafone Group Plc (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Waitrose
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Wall's
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Weight Watchers Ltd. (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Wm Morrison Supermarkets
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Wrigley Company (UK) Limited (The)
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Yeo Valley Farms (Production) Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Yorkshire Dales Ice Cream

                                                                                                                                                                                        Ice Cream - UK - July 2011

                                                                                                                                                                                        £1,995.00 (Excl.Tax)