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Ice Cream - UK - July 2012

“Marketing single-serve products around the notion of a one-off permissible treat should allow brands and own-label players to appeal to the growing proportion of one-person households who are both short on storage space and are reducing their consumption of ice cream for health reasons.”

– Amy Price, Senior Food and Drink Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • How can the category stay ahead in the dessert occasion?
  • How much of a threat does own-label pose to leading brands?
  • How can NPD help to engage consumers in one-person households?
  • How can the market attract the growing group of older consumers?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Figure 1: Market size and forecast for UK value sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, 2007-17
            • The future
              • Market factors
                • Discretionary spending comes under consumer reassessment
                  • A growing need to engage the older population and one-person households
                    • Potential for healthier variants
                      • Companies, brands and innovation
                        • Unilever brands dominate the market
                          • Figure 2: Brand shares in the UK tubs and blocks ice cream market, 2011
                        • NPD continues to drive the market
                          • Unilever dominates ad investment, despite decline in spend
                            • The consumer
                              • Penetration stands at more than eight in ten
                                • Figure 3: Types of ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt purchased, March 2012
                              • Treating is the most popular driver to consumption
                                • Figure 4: Occasions when ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt eaten in the last 3 months, March 2012
                              • The majority are adventurous on flavours
                                • Figure 5: Attitudes towards ice cream, March 2012
                              • What we think
                              • Issues in the Market

                                  • How can the category stay ahead in the dessert occasion?
                                    • How much of a threat does own-label pose to leading brands?
                                      • How can NPD help to engage consumers in one-person households?
                                        • How can the market attract the growing group of older consumers?
                                        • Future Opportunities

                                            • A Simple Balance for Health
                                              • Power of One
                                                • Brand Intervention
                                                • Internal Market Environment

                                                  • Key points
                                                    • Health vs indulgence
                                                      • Figure 6: Trends in lifestyle statements, 2007-11
                                                      • Figure 7: Agreement with health-related lifestyle statements, 2007-11
                                                    • Cost savings replace brand loyalty for the majority
                                                      • Figure 8: Agreement with cost-related lifestyle statements, 2007-11
                                                    • Sunshine hours remain above long-term average
                                                      • Figure 9: Summer sunshine and rainfall trends, 2006-11
                                                    • Storage space could be an issue
                                                      • Figure 10: Ownership of freezer and combined fridge/freezer, 2007-11
                                                  • Broader Market Environment

                                                    • Key points
                                                      • The 2012 recession is expected to be shallow…
                                                        • Figure 11: Consumer expenditure at constant 2012 prices, 2007-17
                                                      • …but consumer pockets will remain under pressure
                                                        • Figure 12: Consumers’ perceptions of their financial situation, February 2009-April 2012
                                                      • Demographic drivers
                                                        • Families’ strong position provides a boost to the sector
                                                          • Figure 13: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2007-17
                                                        • Rise in ABs bodes well for future growth
                                                          • Figure 14: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2007-17
                                                      • Competitive Context

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • Ice cream competes with other heavyweight snacking markets
                                                            • Figure 15: Performance of selected markets competing with ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, 2007-11
                                                          • Opportunities for in-home occasions
                                                            • Health remains an important consideration
                                                            • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                              • Strengths
                                                                • Weaknesses
                                                                • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Innovation focuses on dairy-based products
                                                                      • Figure 16: NPD in ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by type, 2008-11
                                                                    • Branded players lead NPD, but private label is catching up
                                                                        • Figure 17: NPD in ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt – branded vs. own-label, 2008-11
                                                                        • Figure 18: Top ten companies in ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt market, by NPD, 2009-12*
                                                                      • Flavour trends
                                                                        • Figure 19: Top three flavours used in ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt market, 2008-11
                                                                      • Children’s ice lollies
                                                                        • Ice cream challenges the dessert market
                                                                          • Ethical products and mini formats are a focus
                                                                          • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                            • Key points
                                                                              • Inflation continues to affect the market
                                                                                  • Figure 20: Market volume and value size and forecast for the total UK ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, 2007-17
                                                                                • The future
                                                                                  • Figure 21: Market size and forecast for UK retail volume sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, 2007-17
                                                                                  • Figure 22: Market size and forecast for UK value sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, 2007-17
                                                                                • Forecast methodology
                                                                                • Segment Performance

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Ice cream sector dominates
                                                                                      • Figure 23: UK retail value sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by type, 2009-11
                                                                                    • Tubs and blocks remain the preferred ice cream format
                                                                                      • Figure 24: UK retail value sales of ice cream, by format, 2009-11
                                                                                  • Market Share

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • Tubs market dominated by Unilever’s Ben & Jerry’s and Carte D’Or
                                                                                        • Figure 25: Leading brands’ value shares in retail sales of tubs/blocks of ice cream, 2009-11
                                                                                      • Unilever maintains strong position in handheld
                                                                                        • Figure 26: Leading brands’ value shares in retail handheld ice cream, 2009-11
                                                                                    • Companies and Products

                                                                                      • Fredericks Dairies
                                                                                        • General Mills (Häagen-Dazs)
                                                                                          • Green & Black’s
                                                                                            • Mars
                                                                                              • R&R
                                                                                                • Unilever
                                                                                                • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Advertisers cut back expenditure
                                                                                                      • Figure 27: Total advertising expenditure in the ice cream market, 2008-11
                                                                                                      • Figure 28: Advertising expenditure, by sub-category, 2010 and 2011
                                                                                                    • Unilever dominates adspend, but supermarkets invest more
                                                                                                      • Figure 29: Advertising expenditure, by top five advertisers, 2010 and 2011
                                                                                                    • Advertisers increase investment in press advertising
                                                                                                      • Premium brands invest in broad multimedia campaigns
                                                                                                        • Figure 30: Advertising expenditure, by top five brands, 2011
                                                                                                    • Brand Research

                                                                                                      • Brand map
                                                                                                          • Figure 31: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the ice cream sector, May 2012
                                                                                                        • Correspondence analysis
                                                                                                          • Brand attitudes
                                                                                                            • Figure 32: Attitudes, by ice cream brand, May 2012
                                                                                                          • Brand personality
                                                                                                            • Figure 33: Ice cream brand personality – macro image, May 2012
                                                                                                            • Figure 34: Ice cream brand personality – micro image, May 2012
                                                                                                          • Brand experience
                                                                                                            • Figure 35: Ice cream brand usage, May 2012
                                                                                                            • Figure 36: Satisfaction with various ice cream brands, May 2012
                                                                                                            • Figure 37: Consideration of ice cream brands, May 2012
                                                                                                            • Figure 38: Consumer perceptions of current ice cream brand performance, May 2012
                                                                                                            • Figure 39: Ice cream brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, May 2012
                                                                                                          • Brand index
                                                                                                            • Figure 40: Ice cream brand index, May 2012
                                                                                                            • Figure 41: Ice cream brand index vs. recommendation, May 2012
                                                                                                          • Target group analysis
                                                                                                            • Figure 42: Target groups, May 2012
                                                                                                            • Figure 43: Ice cream brand usage, by target groups, May 2012
                                                                                                          • Group One – Conformists
                                                                                                            • Group Two – Simply the Best
                                                                                                              • Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
                                                                                                                • Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
                                                                                                                  • Group Five – Individualists
                                                                                                                  • Channels to Market

                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                      • The grocery chains dominate the market
                                                                                                                        • Figure 44: UK retail sales of the ice cream market, 2009-11
                                                                                                                    • Consumer – Usage of Ice Cream, Sorbet and Frozen Yogurt

                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                        • Penetration stands at more than eight in ten
                                                                                                                            • Figure 45: Types of ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt bought, March 2012
                                                                                                                          • Consumption is geared towards light usage
                                                                                                                            • Figure 46: Usage of ice cream in tubs and blocks in the last 12 months, 2009-11
                                                                                                                            • Figure 47: Usage of ice cream bars, cones, tubs and sticks (including mini versions) in the last 12 months, 2009-11
                                                                                                                          • Families and larger households have above-average consumption…
                                                                                                                            • Figure 48: Purchasing habits of ice cream, by presence of own children and household size, March 2012
                                                                                                                          • …as do ABs and higher earners
                                                                                                                            • Figure 49: Purchasing habits of ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt, by type, by socio-economic group and annual household income, March 2012
                                                                                                                          • Sorbet and frozen yogurt appeal to the 16-24s
                                                                                                                            • Figure 50: Purchasing habits of sorbet and frozen yogurt, by age, March 2012
                                                                                                                        • Consumer – Purchasing Habits

                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                            • More than nine in ten buy ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt from a supermarket
                                                                                                                                • Figure 51: Locations from which ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt has been purchased, March 2012
                                                                                                                              • Potential to increase on-the-go consumption
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 52: Types of ice cream purchased by those who have bought ice cream from a restaurant, March 2012
                                                                                                                              • Consumer – Occasions

                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                  • Treating is the most popular driver to consumption
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 53: Occasions when ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt eaten in the last 3 months, March 2012
                                                                                                                                    • Women and the under-35s are more engaged with most ice cream occasions
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 54: Occasions when eaten ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt eaten in the last 3 months, by gender and age, March 2012
                                                                                                                                      • In-home meal occasions pose a lucrative marketing opportunity
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 55: Average amount spent on occasions in the home when food and drink has been purchased, December 2011
                                                                                                                                      • Consumer – Behaviour

                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                          • A sizeable minority of consumers are brand-loyal…
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 56: Agreement with statements on ice cream, March 2012
                                                                                                                                            • …although switching is commonplace when brands are on promotion
                                                                                                                                              • The freezer cabinet does not seem to pose a barrier to purchase
                                                                                                                                                • Space is a restriction for the smallest and largest households
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 57: Agreement with the statement ‘It’s hard to fit ice cream in my freezer’, by household size, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                • Premium varieties struggle to justify their higher price points
                                                                                                                                                  • Appealing to health-conscious consumers could help
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 58: Index of agreement with selected statements on ice cream, by age (average = 100), March 2012
                                                                                                                                                  • Consumer – Attitudes Towards Ice Cream

                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                      • The majority are adventurous on flavours
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 59: Attitudes towards ice cream, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 60: Index of agreement with the statements ‘I would like to try new flavours/limited edition flavours’ and ‘I would like to try new flavours from a brand I typically buy’, by age (average = 100), March 2012
                                                                                                                                                        • Competing with other ‘indulgent’ categories
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 61: Agreement with the statement ‘Ice cream is less indulgent than other desserts (eg chocolate fondant)’, by age, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 62: Agreement with the statement ‘Ice cream in board packaging (eg Häagen-Dazs) is of better quality than that in plastic tubs’, by annual household income, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Health is not a concern for the sizeable minority
                                                                                                                                                          • Consumer – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                              • Four target groups
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 63: Target groups based on attitudes towards ice cream, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Disengaged (29%)
                                                                                                                                                                • Health-Conscious (23%)
                                                                                                                                                                  • Discerning (28%)
                                                                                                                                                                    • On A Budget (20%)
                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Internal Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 64: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 65: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 66: Body Mass Index among adults in England, 2005-10*
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 67: Ownership of freezer and combined fridge/freezer, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Broader Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 68: Consumer Confidence Index, January 2008-January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 69: Trends in statements on price/brand, 2007-11
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 70: Trends and projections in the UK population, by age group, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 71: Best- and worst-case forecasts for ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by value, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 72: Best- and worst-case forecasts for ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by volume, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 73: Advertising expenditure, by media type, 2009-11
                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 74: Brand usage, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 75: Brand commitment, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 76: Brand momentum, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 77: Brand diversity, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 78: Brand satisfaction, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 79: Brand recommendation, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 80: Brand attitude, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 81: Brand image – macro image, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 82: Brand image – micro image, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 83: Profile of target groups, by demographics, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 84: Psychographic segmentation, by target groups, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 85: Brand usage, by target groups, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand index
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 86: Brand index, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Consumer Usage of Ice Cream, Sorbet and Frozen Yogurt

                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 87: Most popular purchasing habits of ice cream, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 88: Next most popular purchasing habits of ice cream, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 89: Other purchasing habits of ice cream, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 90: Usage of ice cream in tubs and blocks in the last 12 months, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 91: Usage of ice cream bars, cones, tubs and sticks (including mini versions) in the last 12 months, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Consumer – Purchasing Habits

                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 92: Most popular locations from which ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt has been purchased, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 93: Next most popular locations from which ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt has been purchased, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 94: Locations from which ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt has been purchased, by most popular purchasing habits of ice cream, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 95: Locations from which ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt has been purchased, by next most popular purchasing habits of ice cream, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Consumer – Occasions

                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 96: Most popular occasions when eaten ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt eaten in the last 3 months, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 97: Next most popular occasions when eaten ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt eaten in the last 3 months, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 98: Grocery shopping habits, by demographics, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Consumer – Behaviour

                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 99: Agreement with most popular statements on ice cream, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 100: Agreement with next most popular statements on ice cream, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 101: Agreement with other statements on ice cream, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Attitudes Towards Ice Cream

                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 102: Agreement with the statements ‘I would like to try new flavours/limited edition flavours’ and ‘I would like to try new flavours from a brand I typically buy’, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 103: Agreement with the statements ‘Ice cream is less indulgent than other desserts’ and ‘I prefer ice cream cones/sticks to big tubs because they are more convenient’, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 104: Agreement with the statements ‘Ice cream in board packaging is of better quality than that in plastic tubs’ and ‘Mini formats of ice cream allow me to indulge on a more frequent basis’, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 105: Agreement with the statements ‘I worry about health when eating ice cream’ and ‘I like the taste of 'light' variants’, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 106: Target groups, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 107: Purchasing habits of ice cream, by target groups, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 108: Locations from which ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt has been purchased, by target groups, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 109: Agreement with statements on ice cream, by target groups, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 110: Occasions when eaten ice cream/sorbet/frozen yogurt in the last 3 months, by target groups, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 111: Attitudes towards statements on ice cream, by target groups, March 2012

                                                                                                                                                                    Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                    • Ben & Jerry's (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                    • Britvic Soft Drinks
                                                                                                                                                                    • Cadbury Schweppes Plc
                                                                                                                                                                    • Del Monte Foods
                                                                                                                                                                    • Fredericks Dairies
                                                                                                                                                                    • General Mills Inc
                                                                                                                                                                    • Green & Black's Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                    • Häagen-Dazs
                                                                                                                                                                    • J. Sainsbury
                                                                                                                                                                    • Kraft Foods UK
                                                                                                                                                                    • Mars Incorporated
                                                                                                                                                                    • Nestlé UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                    • Tangerine Confectionery Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                    • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                                    • Thorntons Plc
                                                                                                                                                                    • Unilever Plc
                                                                                                                                                                    • Vimto Soft Drinks

                                                                                                                                                                    Ice Cream - UK - July 2012

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