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Ice Cream - US - April 2017

Retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties reached $12.8 billion in 2016, reflecting a 3.6% year-over-year increase. Market growth has been driven by positive sales performance in the two largest segments: ice cream/frozen dessert and frozen novelties. These segments are seen as offering rich, indulgent treats that can satisfy sweet cravings. Premium brands with natural ingredients and innovative flavors have been strong performers. In contrast, smaller segments – frozen yogurt and sherbet, sorbet and ices – have struggled in recent years and both posted sales declines in 2016.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • Positive growth seen in 2016 and forecast through 2021
          • Figure 1: Total US retail sales and fan forecast of frozen novelties, at current prices, 2011-21
        • The issues
          • Obesity is high and traditional ice cream is seen as high fat, sugar and calorie
            • Figure 2: Perceptions of Frozen treats in terms of calories, sugar, and fat, February 2017
          • Frozen yogurt and sherbet/sorbet/ices struggle, fail to grow sales
            • Figure 3: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy and sherbet/sorbet/ices, at current prices, 2011-21
          • In 2016, volume sales are still well below level seen in 2012
            • Figure 4: MULO volume sales of frozen treats, by millions of units, 2011-16
          • The opportunities
            • High engagement from younger consumers, parents, and Hispanics
              • Figure 5: purchasing of ice cream and frozen yogurt, by type and select demographics, December 2016
            • Many opportunities for usage and promotion of ice cream and treats
              • Figure 6: Reasons for Frozen treat purchase, for iGeneration, Millennials, and parents, February 2017
            • Cultivating loyalty, expanding reach
              • Figure 7: Purchase drivers, for iGeneration and millennials, February 2017
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Positive growth seen in 2016, with sales reaching $12.8 billion
                • Opportunities in premium, healthier fare and with demographic focus
                  • In-store usage strong, competition still present from many sides
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Positive growth seen in 2016 and forecast through 2021
                      • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and fan forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2011-21
                      • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at current prices, 2011-21
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • Together ice cream and frozen novelties comprise 96% of sales
                      • Figure 10: Market share of ice cream and frozen novelties, 2016
                      • Figure 11: Total US retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
                    • Gelato sales fall in 2016, but are likely to stabilize
                      • Figure 12: Total retail sales of gelato and gelato-based novelties, at current prices, 2011-16
                    • The forecast for frozen yogurt and sherbet/sorbet remains poor
                      • Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
                    • Volume sales decline in all segments at MULO
                      • Figure 14: MULO volume sales of frozen treats, by millions of units, 2011-16
                    • From 2015-16, volume increase highest in ice cream/frozen dairy dessert
                      • Figure 15: MULO volume sales of frozen treats, by segment, by millions of units/packages, 2015 and 2016
                  • Market Perspective

                    • In-store purchase outpaces foodservice
                      • Figure 16: frozen treat purchase, by location of purchase, February 2017
                    • Ice cream shops can lead perception of premium, support brands
                      • Figure 17: Ben & Jerry’s cereal flashback, March 2017
                    • Other treats can compete with – or complement – frozen treats
                      • Non-frozen yogurt offers sweet, dairy-based treat, with healthy profile
                        • Frozen blended coffeehouse drinks are popular with young generations
                        • Market Factors

                          • Obesity epidemic may dampen ice cream sales, boost call for healthier treats
                            • Parents, who will be more racially diverse, also key to market
                              • Figure 18: frozen treat purchase, by parental status, February 2017
                              • Figure 19: frozen treat purchase, by Hispanic origin, February 2017
                              • Figure 20: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2012-22
                              • Figure 21: Hispanic share of population, by generation, 2017
                          • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                            • Two leading suppliers lose share in diversified supply landscape
                              • Ben & Jerry’s, Talenti & Häagen-Dazs stand out in ice cream segment
                                • Premium frozen novelties with grown-up appeal perform well
                                  • Frozen yogurt and sherbets/sorbets/ices segments struggle
                                    • Key trends are natural ingredients, nutritious treats, small servings
                                    • Company and Brand Sales of Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties

                                      • Four leading suppliers command about half of the market
                                        • Private label struggles, while “other” companies build sales and share
                                          • Sales of ice cream and frozen novelties by company
                                            • Figure 22: Sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by company, rolling 52 weeks, 2015 and 2016
                                        • What’s Working?

                                          • Indulgent ice cream with high quality, natural ingredients performs well
                                            • Ben & Jerry’s and Talenti perform well, boost sales for Unilever
                                              • Ben & Jerry’s: social activism…and mix-in super indulgence
                                                • Figure 23: Ben & Jerry’s Join the Climate Movement ad, July 2016
                                              • Talenti Gelato’s message of indulgence, quality ingredients and lower fat resonate
                                                • Häagen-Dazs, messaging purity + pleasure shines for Nestlé’s premium brand
                                                  • Figure 24: MULO sales of ice cream, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                • Frozen novelties’ sales growth slow, but some standout successes
                                                  • Unilever's Magnum is stand-out success with double-dip bars
                                                    • Figure 25: magnum double caramel, ad, may 2016
                                                    • Figure 26: Magnum double ice cream with Kendall Jenner ad, may 2016
                                                  • Other indulgent and candy-centered treats outperform the segment
                                                    • Figure 27: MULO sales of frozen novelties, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                • What’s Struggling?

                                                  • Frozen yogurt struggles, one or two bright spots
                                                      • Figure 28: MULO sales of frozen yogurt, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                    • MULO sales fall for sherbet, sorbet and ices, a few make gains
                                                      • Figure 29: MULO sales sherbet, sorbet and ices, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                  • What’s Next?

                                                    • The expansion of premium offerings with natural, simpler formulations
                                                      • Seasonal, coffee, or tea inspired, and unusual flavors
                                                        • More nutritious, probiotic, protein, and vitamin enriched offerings
                                                          • For small suppliers, original flavors tie to TV shows, sports teams, icons
                                                            • Nostalgic tastes and kid-friendly, candy and cake inspired offerings
                                                              • Smaller sizes, including bite-sized confectionary-inspired treats
                                                              • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                • Ice cream is the most widely purchased, followed by frozen novelties
                                                                  • Satisfying a craving and snacking drives consumption
                                                                    • Most engaged consumers seek range of formats and brands
                                                                      • Consumers seek favorite flavors, want indulgence over healthfulness
                                                                        • Health and safety concerns unlikely to thwart consumption.
                                                                          • Dairy-based ice cream and frozen novelties enjoy positive associations
                                                                          • Frozen Treat Purchase

                                                                            • Ice cream is top purchase, with frozen novelties in second
                                                                              • Figure 30: Frozen treat purchase, by type of treat and where eaten, February 2017
                                                                            • Younger generations relish treats beyond basic ice cream
                                                                              • Figure 31: In-store frozen treat purchase, by generation, February 2017
                                                                            • Kids love frozen treats…and parents, understandably, buy more!
                                                                              • Figure 32: In-store frozen treat purchase, by parental status, February 2017
                                                                              • Figure 33: Type of in-store frozen treat purchase, by parental status February 2017
                                                                            • Hispanics are key consumers, buying wide range of frozen treats
                                                                              • Figure 34: In-store frozen treat purchase, by Hispanic origin, February 2017
                                                                              • Figure 35: Type of in-store frozen treat purchase, by Hispanic origin, February 2017
                                                                          • Reasons for Purchase

                                                                            • Satisfying sweet cravings and snacking drive purchases
                                                                              • Figure 36: Reasons for frozen treat purchase, February 2017
                                                                            • Younger generations eat frozen treats to satisfy craving or snack
                                                                              • Figure 37: Reasons for frozen treat purchase, Part I, by generation, February 2017
                                                                            • Younger consumers find a range of secondary reasons to indulge
                                                                              • Figure 38: Reasons for frozen treat purchase, Part II, by generation, February 2017
                                                                            • A wide range of reasons propel parents to buy frozen treats
                                                                              • Figure 39: Reasons for frozen treat purchase, by parental status, February 2017
                                                                            • Hispanics above all seek frozen treats to satisfy carving or as snack
                                                                              • Figure 40: Reasons for Frozen treat purchase, by Hispanic origin, February 2017
                                                                          • Frozen Treat Formats

                                                                            • Half-gallon packages lead, but smaller formats still widely used
                                                                              • Figure 41: Packaging size for frozen treat purchases, February 2017
                                                                            • Single-flavor products most popular, followed by mix-ins
                                                                              • Figure 42: Flavors and product qualities, February 2017
                                                                            • Younger buyers use smaller packages, more varied and indulgent treats
                                                                              • Figure 43: Packaging size for frozen treat purchases, by generation, February 2017
                                                                              • Figure 44: Flavors and product qualities, by generation, February 2017
                                                                            • Parents seek variety packs and use gamut of brands
                                                                              • Figure 45: Reasons for frozen treat purchase, February 2017
                                                                            • Expanding packaging options builds accessibility
                                                                              • Figure 46: TURF Analysis – Frozen treat formats, February 2017
                                                                              • Figure 47: Table - TURF Analysis – Frozen treat formats, February 2017
                                                                          • Purchase Drivers

                                                                            • Favorite flavor is the top driver, though value also shapes choices
                                                                              • Figure 48: Purchase drivers, February 2017
                                                                            • For consumers of all ages, favorite flavor is a central driver
                                                                              • Figure 49: Purchase drivers, part i, by generations, February 2017
                                                                            • Millennials are more likely to seek new flavors and premium brands
                                                                              • Figure 50: Purchase drivers, part ii, by generations, February 2017
                                                                            • Parents seek new flavors, premium offerings, and more natural ingredients
                                                                              • Figure 51: purchase drivers, by parental status, February 2017
                                                                            • Household income shapes importance of price, sales, and brand quality
                                                                              • Figure 52: purchase drivers, by household income, February 2017
                                                                          • Attitudes Towards Frozen Treats

                                                                            • A third eat treats weekly; national brands widely seen as better tasting
                                                                              • Figure 53: Attitudes related to consumption level and brand, February 2017
                                                                            • Safety or health concerns rarely drive down consumption
                                                                              • Figure 54: Attitudes related to health and safety, February 2017
                                                                            • Younger consumers less likely to let health concerns limit consumption
                                                                              • Figure 55: Select attitudes towards frozen treats, by generation, February 2017
                                                                            • Despite greater safety concerns, parents stock, buy and eat more treats
                                                                              • Figure 56: Reasons for frozen treat purchase, by parental status, February 2017
                                                                          • Perceptions of Frozen Treats

                                                                            • Dairy-based ice cream viewed as indulgent, but delicious and satisfying
                                                                              • Figure 57: Correspondence Analysis – Perceptions of frozen treats, February 2017
                                                                              • Figure 58: Perceptions of frozen treats, February 2017
                                                                            • iGeneration posts positive perceptions of treats beyond ice cream
                                                                              • Figure 59: Perceptions of ice cream, by generation, February 2017
                                                                              • Figure 60: Perceptions of frozen novelties, by generation, February 2017
                                                                              • Figure 61: Perceptions of frozen yogurt, by generation, February 2017
                                                                              • Figure 62: Perceptions of non-dairy frozen dessert, by generation, February 2017
                                                                            • Parents see range of treats beyond novelty items as appropriate for kids
                                                                              • Figure 63: Perceptions of which products are for kids and adults, by parental status, February 2017
                                                                          • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                            • Data sources
                                                                              • Sales data
                                                                                • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                  • Consumer survey data
                                                                                    • TURF methodology
                                                                                      • Correspondence analysis methodology
                                                                                        • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                          • Abbreviations
                                                                                          • Appendix – Market

                                                                                              • Figure 64: Total US sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                                              • Figure 65: Total US sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen desserts, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                                              • Figure 66: Total US sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen desserts, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                                              • Figure 67: Total US sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                                              • Figure 68: Total US sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                                              • Figure 69: Total US sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                                              • Figure 70: Total US sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                                              • Figure 71: Total US sales and forecast of sherbet, sorbet and ices, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                                              • Figure 72: Total US sales and forecast of sherbet, sorbet and ices, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                                              • Figure 73: Total US retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties,, by retail channel, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                                              • Figure 74: Average household size, by race and Hispanic origin, 2016
                                                                                              • Figure 75: Distribution of generations by race and Hispanic origin, 2017
                                                                                              • Figure 76: Median household income, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2015

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                                                                                          Ice Cream - US - April 2017

                                                                                          US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)