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In-store Bakeries - US - August 2009

In-store bakeries or on-site bakeries located in grocery stores, mass merchandisers or other food stores, are an important channel for the sale of breads, cakes and other baked goods and will generate over $13 billion in revenue in 2009, according to Mintel estimates. This report will provide in-depth perspectives and recommended strategies for success in the ISB market, including:

  • Market size and segmentation
  • Competing retailers and products, such as coffee shops and convenience stores as well as prepared and frozen dough products
  • Strategies ISBs can adopt to remain competitive in the market
  • Retail channels and key players
  • Marketing and merchandising strategies of how companies are positioning their products and brands today
  • Market drivers: Primary factors impacting the ISB market will be analyzed, including the impact the current severe recession will have on ISBs
  • Consumer behavior and needs

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer survey data
              • Abbreviations and terms
                • Abbreviations
                  • Terms
                  • Executive Summary

                    • Growing sales mask real concerns
                      • ISB for breakfast?
                        • Small, local are important new trends
                          • Tough economy drives change
                            • Marketing initiatives focus on in-store
                              • Women, seniors prime audiences for ISBs
                                • Breads most popular, but sweet tooths abound
                                  • Consumers changing behavior in the new economy
                                  • Insights and Opportunities

                                    • Think small
                                      • Think local
                                        • Consider eating in (store)
                                        • Inspire Insights

                                            • Dial-a-Brunch
                                              • What we’ve seen
                                                • Implications and thoughts
                                                  • Baker Tweet
                                                    • What we’ve seen
                                                      • Implications and thoughts
                                                        • That’s Cake, America
                                                          • What we’ve seen
                                                            • Implications and thoughts
                                                              • Snacks for a Snack Society
                                                                • What we’ve seen
                                                                  • Implications and thoughts
                                                                  • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                    • Key points
                                                                      • Stable growth slows with the recession
                                                                        • Figure 1: Number of in-store service bakeries and average weekly sales per store, 2001-08
                                                                      • A changing customer base
                                                                        • Figure 2: Trended incidence of purchase at ISBs, by household income, 2005-09
                                                                      • Overall sales of ISBs
                                                                        • Figure 3: Total U.S. sales and forecast of ISB products, at current prices, 2004-14
                                                                        • Figure 4: Total U.S. sales and forecast of ISB products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-14
                                                                    • Competitive Context

                                                                      • The bread aisle
                                                                        • Sandwich, coffee and donut shops
                                                                          • C-Stores sell baked goods
                                                                          • Segment Performance

                                                                            • Key points
                                                                              • Desserts lead the category
                                                                                • Strong growth for breakfast
                                                                                  • Sales of ISBs by segment
                                                                                    • Figure 5: Sales of selected ISB products at current prices, by segment, 2007 and 2009
                                                                                • Segment Performance—Desserts

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Recession slows robust growth
                                                                                      • Continued opportunity in “everyday indulgences”
                                                                                        • ISB dessert sales
                                                                                          • Figure 6: Sales of ISB desserts, at current prices, 2004-09
                                                                                          • Figure 7: Sales of ISB desserts, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-09
                                                                                      • Segment Performance—Breads and Rolls

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • Solid growth following the Atkins trend
                                                                                            • Opportunity in artisan, health-oriented breads
                                                                                              • ISB bread and roll sales
                                                                                                • Figure 8: Sales of ISB breads and rolls, at current prices, 2004-09
                                                                                                • Figure 9: Sales of ISB breads and rolls, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-14
                                                                                            • Segment Performance—Bakery/Breakfast

                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                • Hispanic sweet goods, dining at home fuel growth
                                                                                                  • Serious dough in donuts
                                                                                                    • ISB bakery/breakfast sales
                                                                                                      • Figure 10: Sales of ISB bakery/breakfast products, 2004-09
                                                                                                      • Figure 11: Sales of ISB bakery/breakfast products, at inflation- adjusted prices, 2004-09
                                                                                                  • Retail Channels

                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                      • Mass merchandisers and club stores pose a threat
                                                                                                        • Figure 12: Number of conventional supermarkets and supercenters ($2 million or more), 2003-08
                                                                                                      • Supermarkets still currently prevail
                                                                                                        • Figure 13: Types of stores from which ISB purchases have been made in past year, 2007-09
                                                                                                    • Market Drivers

                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                        • A difficult economy
                                                                                                          • Figure 14: U.S. unemployment, October 2008-June 2009
                                                                                                          • Figure 15: Disposable personal income and personal consumption, October 2009-May 2009
                                                                                                        • The need for speed
                                                                                                          • Growing Hispanic population
                                                                                                            • Figure 16: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2004-14
                                                                                                            • Figure 17: U.S. population ages 34 and below, by race/Hispanic origin, 2008
                                                                                                          • Production costs remain high
                                                                                                          • Brand Qualities

                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                • Costco
                                                                                                                  • Market of Choice
                                                                                                                    • Publix
                                                                                                                      • Whole Foods
                                                                                                                      • Innovation and Innovators

                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                          • Health, gluten and the trans fats scare
                                                                                                                            • Figure 18: New product launches of trans fat-free products, by sector 2004-09
                                                                                                                            • Figure 19: Change in new product launches of trans fat-free products, by sector, 2004-08
                                                                                                                            • Figure 20: New product launches of gluten-free products, by sector, 2004-09
                                                                                                                          • The natural approach
                                                                                                                            • Other innovations
                                                                                                                            • Advertising and Promotion

                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                • In-store merchandising and displays
                                                                                                                                  • Print advertising
                                                                                                                                    • Online initiatives
                                                                                                                                    • Usage of In-store Bakeries

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                        • Overall use of ISBs
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 21: Incidence of buying bread or bakery items from in-store bakery, by key demographics, May 2009
                                                                                                                                        • ISBs used by type of store
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 22: Types of stores from which ISB purchases have been made in past year, by gender, May 2009
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 23: Types of stores from which ISB purchases have been made in past year, by age, May 2009
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 24: Types of stores from which ISB purchases have been made in past year, by household income, May 2009
                                                                                                                                      • Share of Purchases by Type of Outlet

                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                          • Gender bias favors ISBs
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 25: Estimated share of spend on bread and bakery products from various types of stores, by gender, May 2009
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 26: Estimated share of spend on bread and bakery products from various types of stores, by age, May 2009
                                                                                                                                          • ISBs skew higher income
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 27: Estimated share of spend on bread and bakery products from various types of stores, by household income, May 2009
                                                                                                                                        • Incidence of Using Various Outlets for Bread and Bakery—Normal Home Consumption vs. For Special Occasions

                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                            • Supermarket aisle and ISBs dominate
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 28: Source of bread and other baked goods for normal home consumption, by product type, May 2009
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 29: Source of bread and other baked goods for a special event or meal, by product type, May 2009
                                                                                                                                          • Products Bought at ISBs

                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                              • Bread or roll purchase from ISBs by ingredient addition/omission
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 30: Purchase from ISB of bread or rolls with specific added, low or no ingredients, by gender, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 31: Purchase from ISB of bread or rolls with specific added, low or no ingredients, by age, May 2009
                                                                                                                                              • Types of product bought from ISB in last month
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 32: Types of products bought from ISB in past month, by gender, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 33: Types of products bought from ISB in past month, by age, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 34: Types of products bought from ISB in past month, by household income, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 35: Types of products bought from ISB in past month, by number of people in household, May 2009
                                                                                                                                              • ISB services and options tried or interested in
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 36: Interest in trying new or different ISB products and services, May 2009
                                                                                                                                            • Changes in Shopping and Eating Habits

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • Changes in use of ISBs
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 37: Change in use of ISBs as a result of the current economic climate, by gender, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 38: Change in use of ISBs as a result of the current economic climate, by age, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 39: Change in use of ISBs as a result of the current economic climate, by household income, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                • Changes in eating and cooking habits
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 40: Change in eating and cooking habits as a result of the current economic climate, by gender, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 41: Change in eating and cooking habits as a result of the current economic climate, by age, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 42: Change in eating and cooking habits as a result of the current economic climate, by household income, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                • Changes in grocery bill
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 43: Change in grocery bill as a result of the current economic climate, by gender, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 44: Change in grocery bill as a result of the current economic climate, by age, May 2009
                                                                                                                                              • Impact of Race/Hispanic Origin

                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 45: Incidence of buying bread or bakery items from in-store bakery, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 46: Estimated share of spend on bread and bakery products from various types of stores, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 47: Types of products bought from ISB in past month, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 48: Change in eating and cooking habits as a result of the current economic climate, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2009
                                                                                                                                              • Cluster Analysis

                                                                                                                                                  • Grocers
                                                                                                                                                    • Who they are
                                                                                                                                                      • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                        • Specialists
                                                                                                                                                          • Who they are
                                                                                                                                                            • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                              • Generalists
                                                                                                                                                                • Who they are
                                                                                                                                                                  • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                                    • Cluster characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 49: In-store bakery clusters, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 50: Types of stores from which ISB purchases have been made in past year, by in-store bakery clusters, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 51: Purchase from ISB of bread or rolls with specific added, low or no ingredients, by in-store bakery clusters, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 52: Estimated share of spend on bread and bakery products from various types of stores, by in-store bakery clusters, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 53: Types of products bought from ISB in past month, by in-store bakery clusters, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 54: Change in use of ISBs as a result of the current economic climate, by in-store bakery clusters, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                    • Cluster demographics
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 55: In-store bakery clusters, by gender, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 56: In-store bakery clusters, by age, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 57: In-store bakery clusters, by household income, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 58: In-store bakery clusters, by race, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 59: In-store bakery clusters, by Hispanic origin, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                    • Cluster methodology
                                                                                                                                                                    • Custom Consumer Groups

                                                                                                                                                                      • Rates of ISB purchase—kids drive sales, but not by much?
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 60: Incidence of buying bread or bakery items from in-store bakery, by gender and children, gender and age, and BMI, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 61: Estimated share of spend on bread and bakery products from various types of stores, by marital status and presence of children, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 62: Estimated share of spend on bread and bakery products from various types of stores, by age and gender, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Product selection—health for grownups, treats for kids
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 63: Purchase from ISB of bread or rolls with specific added, low or no ingredients, by gender and presence of children, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 64: Types of products bought from ISB in past month, by gender and presence of children, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 65: Types of products bought from ISB in past month, by Hispanic origin and household income, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                        • The economy—families, women buckle down
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 66: Change in use of ISBs as a result of the current economic climate, by gender and presence of children, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 67: Change in use of ISBs as a result of the current economic climate, by gender and age, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 68: Change in eating and cooking habits as a result of the current economic climate, by gender and presence of children, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables

                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 69: Purchase from ISB of bread or rolls with specific added, low or no ingredients, by household income, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 70: Purchase from ISB of bread or rolls with specific added, low or no ingredients, by marital status, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 71: Types of products bought from ISB in past month, by gender and age, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 72: Change in use of ISBs as a result of the current economic climate, by marital status and presence of children, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 73: Change in grocery bill as a result of the current economic climate, by household income, May 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix: Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                                        Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                        • ABP Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                        • Albertsons Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                        • American Bakers Association (ABA)
                                                                                                                                                                        • American Institute of Baking (AIB)
                                                                                                                                                                        • American Society of Baking (ASB)
                                                                                                                                                                        • Atkins Nutritionals, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                        • Baking Industry Suppliers Association (BEMA)
                                                                                                                                                                        • Bashas' Inc
                                                                                                                                                                        • BB&T Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                        • BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc
                                                                                                                                                                        • Bureau of Economic Analysis
                                                                                                                                                                        • Costco Wholesale Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                        • Dunkin' Brands
                                                                                                                                                                        • Einstein Noah Restaurant Group Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                        • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                        • Food Marketing Institute
                                                                                                                                                                        • General Mills Inc
                                                                                                                                                                        • Giant Eagle
                                                                                                                                                                        • Grain Foods Foundation
                                                                                                                                                                        • Greenfield Online
                                                                                                                                                                        • Grupo Bimbo S.A.
                                                                                                                                                                        • International Dairy·Deli·Bakery Association
                                                                                                                                                                        • Kmart Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                        • Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                        • La Brea Holdings, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                        • North American Millers' Association (NAMA)
                                                                                                                                                                        • Panera Bread Company
                                                                                                                                                                        • Pathmark Stores, Inc
                                                                                                                                                                        • Peapod
                                                                                                                                                                        • Pepperidge Farm Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                        • Publix Super Markets
                                                                                                                                                                        • Retail Bakers of America (RBA)
                                                                                                                                                                        • Rich Products Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                        • Safeway Inc
                                                                                                                                                                        • SAM's Club
                                                                                                                                                                        • Sara Lee Bakery Group
                                                                                                                                                                        • Sheetz, Inc
                                                                                                                                                                        • Starbucks Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                        • Stew Leonard's
                                                                                                                                                                        • Target Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                        • Tesco (US)
                                                                                                                                                                        • The Kroger Co.
                                                                                                                                                                        • Thriftway
                                                                                                                                                                        • Tortilla Industry Association (TIA)
                                                                                                                                                                        • Twitter, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                        • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
                                                                                                                                                                        • U.S. Bureau of the Census
                                                                                                                                                                        • U.S. Department of Agriculture
                                                                                                                                                                        • Unilever USA
                                                                                                                                                                        • US Department of Labor
                                                                                                                                                                        • Walmart Stores (USA)
                                                                                                                                                                        • Wheat Foods Council (WFC)
                                                                                                                                                                        • Whole Foods Market Inc

                                                                                                                                                                        In-store Bakeries - US - August 2009

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