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In-store Bakeries - US - June 2015

"In-store bakeries will continue their recent pattern of sustained, if not spectacular, sales growth, particularly as innovation in baked items deliver healthier indulgences and more convenient breakfast baked goods. With a fairly sizable portion of consumers not even thinking of their in-store bakery as an option for breads and other baked goods, retailers should concentrate on improving product quality and introducing consumers to the available products. Furthermore, mass merchandisers and natural food stores are likely to increase their attention on their in-store bakeries and present greater competition to supermarkets, particularly in the area of natural/organic and allergen-free baked goods."

This report covers the following issues:

  • Increased growth expected for in-store bakeries
  • Desserts dominate in-store bakeries
  • In-store bakeries face competition from their own stores

The potential for in-store bakeries is strong, particularly for retailers able to merge consumer desires for convenience and health in breakfast options. While specialty cakes resonate most strongly with larger households, the overall trend is toward smaller households, suggesting in-store bakeries should focus their efforts on more portion-controlled options that meet or exceed consumer health demands.

 

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Increased growth expected for in-store bakeries
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2010-20
          • Desserts dominate in-store bakeries
            • Figure 2: Total estimated 2015 US retail sales of in-store bakery products, by segment, at inflation-adjusted prices, in millions (% change from 2013)
          • In-store bakeries face competition from their own stores
            • Figure 3: Purchase of bakery items, March 2015
          • The opportunities
            • Ethnic options could lure younger consumers to the in-store bakery
              • Figure 4: Products for in-store bakeries, by generation, March 2015
            • Portion control presents potential for in-store bakeries
              • Figure 5: Products for in-store bakeries, by presence/age of children in household, March 2015
            • Local resonates most strongly with Millennials
              • Figure 6: Important features of in-store bakeries, any important, by generation, March 2015
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • In-store bakeries projected to grow through 2020
                • Desserts dominate in in-store bakeries
                  • Breakfast starts strong
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Increased growth rate projected for in-store bakeries
                      • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2010-20
                      • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • Desserts continue category dominance
                      • Figure 9: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, by segment, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                    • Beginning with breakfast
                      • Figure 10: Total estimated 2015 US retail sales of in-store bakery products, by segment, at inflation-adjusted prices, in millions (% change from 2013)
                    • In-store bakeries rise along with sales
                      • Figure 11: Total number of in-store bakeries and average weekly sales per store, 2008-13
                  • Market Perspective

                    • Battling stand-alone bakeries’ higher quality perception
                      • Figure 12: Purchase of bakery items, March 2015
                    • At-home baking offers less-expensive, though somewhat less-convenient alternative
                      • Figure 13: Types of baking/dessert mixes used – Once a month or more, by age, June 2014
                  • Market Factors

                    • In-store for households with children
                      • Figure 14: US households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
                    • Income for in-store
                      • Figure 15: Real disposable personal income, updated March 10, 2015
                  • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                    • Scratch-made options add fresher appeal
                      • Health translates into less gluten, sugar, and portion size
                        • Organic growth
                        • What’s Working?

                          • Scratch-made at Costco
                            • Figure 16: Reason for purchase from in-store bakeries, by generations, March 2015
                          • Health cues prompt Wegmans’ bakery additions
                            • Figure 17: Reason for purchase from in-store bakeries, by age groups, March 2015
                          • Fresh & Easy organic options
                            • Figure 18: Reason for purchase from in-store bakeries, by age groups, March 2015
                        • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                          • In-store bakeries resonate with larger households
                            • Natural, mass merchandisers have room to grow their in-store bakeries
                              • In-store bakery insights of interest to consumers
                              • In-store Bakeries More Popular than Stand-alone Bakeries

                                • In-store bakeries still fall short of supermarket aisle sales
                                  • Figure 19: Purchase of bakery items, March 2015
                              • Family Size and In-store Bakery Purchase

                                • Larger households turn to in-store bakeries
                                  • Figure 20: Purchase of bakery items, by number of children under age 18 in household, March 2015
                                  • Figure 21: Reason for purchase from in-store bakeries, by number of children under 18 in household, March 2015
                              • Freshness Differentiates In-store Bakeries from the Supermarket Aisle

                                • Fresh appeal for in-store bakeries
                                  • Figure 22: Reason for purchase from in-store bakeries, by generations, March 2015
                              • Room for Growth in Non-supermarket In-store Bakeries

                                • Natural, mass merchandisers fall short of supermarket in-store bakeries
                                  • Figure 23: Purchase location for select bakery items, March 2015
                              • Unique Items’ Potential as a Draw

                                • New and different items could lure those who do not think about the in-store bakery
                                  • Figure 24: Reasons for not purchasing from in-store bakeries, March 2015
                                  • Figure 25: Reasons for not purchasing from in-store bakeries, March 2015
                              • Breakfast, Ethnic Items of Particular Interest to Millennials

                                • Breakfast offerings will have to bear value/price in mind, however
                                  • Figure 26: Products for in-store bakeries, by generation, March 2015
                              • In-store Bakery Product Needs

                                • High fiber and portion control would help consumers help themselves
                                  • Figure 27: Products for in-store bakeries, by presence/age of children in household, March 2015
                              • Health of Relatively Little Importance among In-store Bakery Offerings

                                • Can in-store bakeries merge health, convenience, and indulgence?
                                  • Figure 28: Products for in-store bakeries, by household income, March 2015
                                  • Figure 29: Products for in-store bakeries, by generation, March 2015
                              • Bakery Personnel Can Be an In-store Bakery Selling Point

                                • Consumers looking for in-store bakery insight
                                  • Figure 30: Important features of in-store bakeries, any important, by race and Hispanic origin, March 2015
                              • Features of the Ideal In-store Bakery

                                • Locally sourced ingredients resonate with more than half of all consumers
                                  • Figure 31: Important features of in-store bakeries, any important, by generation, March 2015
                              • Consumer Segmentation

                                  • Figure 32: Consumers of in-store bakeries, March 2015
                                • Group one: Seeking something special
                                  • Opportunities
                                      • Figure 33: Reason for purchase from in-store bakeries, any important, by target group, March 2015
                                    • Group two: All about indulgence
                                      • Opportunities
                                          • Figure 34: Important features of in-store bakeries, any important, by target groups, March 2015
                                        • Group three: Getting guidance
                                          • Opportunities
                                              • Figure 35: Important features of in-store bakeries, any important, by target groups, March 2015
                                            • Group four: Happily healthy
                                              • Opportunities
                                                • Figure 36: Important features of in-store bakeries, any important, by target groups, March 2015
                                            • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                              • Data sources
                                                • Sales data
                                                  • Fan chart forecast
                                                    • Consumer survey data
                                                      • Abbreviations and terms
                                                        • Abbreviations
                                                          • Terms
                                                          • Appendix – The Market

                                                              • Figure 37: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                              • Figure 38: Number of in-store bakeries and average weekly sales per store, 2008-13
                                                              • Figure 39: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, by segment, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013 and 2015
                                                              • Figure 40: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery desserts, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                              • Figure 41: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery desserts, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                              • Figure 42: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breads and rolls, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                              • Figure 43: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breads and rolls, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                              • Figure 44: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breakfast bakery products, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                              • Figure 45: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breakfast bakery products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                              • Figure 46: Total US retail sales and forecast of other in-store bakery products, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                              • Figure 47: Total US retail sales and forecast of other in-store bakery products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20

                                                          Companies Covered

                                                          • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                          In-store Bakeries - US - June 2015

                                                          £3,199.84 (Excl.Tax)