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In-store Bakeries - US - September 2011

This report builds on the analysis presented in Mintel’s In-Store Bakeries—U.S., August 2010, August 2009, August 2008, and July 2007.

ISBs are defined as bakeries placed within supermarkets, mass merchandisers, or club stores that offer an assortment of bakery products, such as breads, cakes, pies, bagels, cookies, doughnuts, and muffins. Unlike the bread aisles found in these stores, ISBs generally have a dedicated counter space with staff to assist customers, and often bake products on-site. In addition to the ISBs themselves, where appropriate, leading suppliers to ISBs are also discussed.

With the exception of sections with Mintel’s custom consumer survey data, the following are excluded from this report:

  • retail “stand-alone” bakeries
  • retail bakery specialty stores
  • bakeries in other types of location, such as restaurants or convenience stores
  • in-store cafés.

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer data
              • Abbreviations and terms
                • Abbreviations
                  • Terms
                  • Executive Summary

                    • Robust growth since 2006 continues through economic downturn
                      • ISB segment performance led by desserts
                        • Many opportunities for ISBs to attract new customers
                          • Higher commodity prices likely to hurt ISBs
                            • ISB competition comes from a variety of sources
                              • Some retailers setting themselves apart
                                • Nearly three fourths of shoppers have purchased at ISBs in last month
                                • Insights and Opportunities

                                  • Get consumers in the door first, by whatever means possible
                                    • ISBs can capitalize by emphasizing the fun factor
                                      • Openly courting Hispanic consumers
                                        • Figure 1: Amount spent on groceries in average week by race/Hispanic origin, February 2009-March 2010
                                      • Baking with the “enemy”
                                        • Branching out into new segments
                                          • Kosher
                                            • Gluten-free and sugar-free products
                                              • Pie is the new cupcake
                                                • Tiny treats
                                                • Inspire Insights

                                                    • Trend: Premiumization and Indulgence
                                                      • Trend: Carnivore, Herbivore...Locavore
                                                      • Market Size and Forecast

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • Healthy sales growth for ISBs
                                                            • Sales and forecast of ISBs
                                                              • Figure 2: U.S. retail* sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, at current prices, 2006-16
                                                              • Figure 3: U.S. retail* sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-16
                                                            • Number of ISBs and average weekly sales
                                                              • Figure 4: Number of ISBs and average weekly sales per store*, 2006-11
                                                            • Fan chart forecast
                                                                • Figure 5: U.S. retail* sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakery products, 2006-16
                                                            • Market Drivers

                                                              • Higher commodity prices impacting costs
                                                                • Increasing Hispanic population will have positive impact on ISBs
                                                                  • Figure 6: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
                                                              • Competitive Context

                                                                • Key points
                                                                  • “Grocery aisle” manufacturers becoming more nimble
                                                                    • QSRs stepping up their offerings
                                                                      • Homebaked goods and stand-alone bakeries still play a large role
                                                                        • Young adults and large households eat a variety of baked goods
                                                                          • Figure 7: Bread and baked good household usage, by age, February 2010-March 2011
                                                                          • Figure 8: Bread and baked good household usage, by household size, February 2010-March 2011
                                                                      • Segment Performance

                                                                        • Key points
                                                                          • ISB desserts account for roughly half the market
                                                                            • Figure 9: U.S. retail* ISB sales, by segment, 2009-11
                                                                        • Segment Performance—Desserts

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • Dessert sales growth continues, albeit at a slower pace
                                                                              • Figure 10: U.S. retail* ISB sales of desserts, 2006-16
                                                                          • Segment Performance—Bread and Rolls

                                                                            • Key points
                                                                              • Breads and rolls benefit from being viewed as a staple
                                                                                • Figure 11: U.S. retail* ISB sales of bread and rolls, 2006-16
                                                                            • Segment Performance—Breakfast Bakery

                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                • Breakfast bakery items, especially doughnuts, hold their own
                                                                                  • Figure 12: U.S. retail* ISB sales of breakfast bakery products, 2006-16
                                                                              • Marketing Strategies

                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                  • Some stores taking it up a notch
                                                                                    • Regional differences lead to different marketing approaches
                                                                                      • Stores tailoring their assortment to reflect demographics
                                                                                        • Other ways that supermarkets can drive sales to ISBs
                                                                                        • Bakery and ISB Usage

                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                            • Figure 13: Shopping role in household, by gender, June 2011
                                                                                          • Relatively high incidence of bakery and ISB usage
                                                                                            • Figure 14: Bakery and ISB usage and purchase frequency, June 2011
                                                                                            • Figure 15: Bakery and ISB usage and purchase frequency, by age, June 2011
                                                                                            • Figure 16: Bakery and ISB usage and purchase frequency, by household income, June 2011
                                                                                          • Italian or French bread the most frequent purchases at ISBs
                                                                                            • Figure 17: ISB purchases, by bakery item type, by age, June 2011
                                                                                            • Figure 18: ISB purchases, by bakery item type, by household income, June 2011
                                                                                            • Figure 19: ISB purchases, by bakery item type, by household size, June 2011
                                                                                        • ISB Shopping and Purchase Occasions

                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                            • Supermarkets lead the pack by a substantial margin
                                                                                              • Figure 20: Types of stores where consumers buy ISB items, by age, June 2011
                                                                                              • Figure 21: Types of stores where consumers buy ISB items, by household income, June 2011
                                                                                            • Purchasing behavior varies greatly depending on ISB item
                                                                                              • Figure 22: Where consumers buy ISB items for home consumption, by bakery item type, by age, June 2011
                                                                                            • The impetus for buying ISB baked goods varies dependent on age
                                                                                              • Figure 23: Bakery item purchase occasions, by age, June 2011
                                                                                              • Figure 24: Bakery item purchase occasions, by household income, June 2011
                                                                                              • Figure 25: Bakery item purchase occasions, by household size, June 2011
                                                                                          • Reasons for Shopping at ISBs

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • Fresher products draw ISB users
                                                                                                • Figure 26: Reasons for shopping at ISBs, by age, June 2011
                                                                                                • Figure 27: Reasons for shopping at ISBs, by household income, June 2011
                                                                                            • ISB Products/Services of Importance

                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                • ISBs should hone in on one freshness factor—“made on-site from scratch”
                                                                                                  • Figure 28: Products and services that consumers use, like, or would like from local ISB, June 2011
                                                                                                • Certain amenities more important to younger ISB users
                                                                                                  • Figure 29: Products and services that are important to get from local ISB, by age, June 2011
                                                                                                  • Figure 30: Products and services that are important from local ISB, by household size, June 2011
                                                                                                • The ISB “wish list”
                                                                                                  • ISB users looking for special deals for frequent customers
                                                                                                    • Figure 31: ISB products and services that consumers desire, by age, June 2011
                                                                                                    • Figure 32: ISB products and services that consumers desire, by household income, June 2011
                                                                                                • Impact of Race and Hispanic Origin

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Blacks and Hispanics over index on recent ISB usage
                                                                                                      • Figure 33: Bakery and ISB usage and purchase frequency, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2011
                                                                                                      • Figure 34: Types of stores where consumers buy ISB items, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2011
                                                                                                      • Figure 35: Reasons for shopping at ISBs, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2011
                                                                                                      • Figure 36: Products and services that are important from local ISB, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2011
                                                                                                  • Cluster Analysis

                                                                                                      • Bakery Lovers
                                                                                                        • Demographics
                                                                                                          • Characteristics
                                                                                                            • Opportunity
                                                                                                              • Fresh Treaters
                                                                                                                • Demographics
                                                                                                                  • Characteristics
                                                                                                                    • Opportunity
                                                                                                                      • Tasteless Values
                                                                                                                        • Demographics
                                                                                                                          • Characteristics
                                                                                                                            • Opportunity
                                                                                                                              • Cluster characteristic tables
                                                                                                                                • Figure 37: In-store bakery clusters, June 2011
                                                                                                                                • Figure 38: Bakery purchases by in-store bakery clusters, June 2011
                                                                                                                                • Figure 39: Bakery item purchase occasions by in-store bakery clusters, June 2011
                                                                                                                                • Figure 40: Reasons for shopping at ISBs by in-store bakery clusters, June 2011
                                                                                                                              • Cluster demographic tables
                                                                                                                                • Figure 41: In-store bakery clusters by gender, June 2011
                                                                                                                                • Figure 42: In-store bakery clusters by age, June 2011
                                                                                                                                • Figure 43: In-store bakery clusters by household income, June 2011
                                                                                                                                • Figure 44: In-store bakery clusters by race, June 2011
                                                                                                                                • Figure 45: In-store bakery clusters by Hispanic origin, June 2011
                                                                                                                                • Figure 46: In-store bakery clusters by presence of children in household, June 2011
                                                                                                                              • Cluster methodology
                                                                                                                              • Custom Consumer Groups

                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                  • Usage and attitudes among recent, occasional, and infrequent/nonusers
                                                                                                                                    • ISB purchases, by bakery item type
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 47: ISB purchases, by bakery item type, by custom consumer groups, June 2011
                                                                                                                                      • Types of stores where consumers buy ISB items
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 48: Types of stores where consumers buy ISB items, by custom consumer groups, June 2011
                                                                                                                                      • Reasons for shopping at ISBs
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 49: Reasons for shopping at ISBs, by custom consumer groups, June 2011
                                                                                                                                        • Products and services that are important to consumers
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 50: Products and services that are important, by custom consumer groups, June 2011
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 51: ISB products and services that consumers desire, by custom consumer groups, June 2011
                                                                                                                                        • Appendix—Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                          • American Bakers Association (ABA)
                                                                                                                                          • American Institute of Baking (AIB)
                                                                                                                                          • American Society of Baking (ASB)
                                                                                                                                          • Baking Industry Suppliers Association (BEMA)
                                                                                                                                          • Costco Wholesale Corporation
                                                                                                                                          • Dunkin' Brands
                                                                                                                                          • Grain Foods Foundation
                                                                                                                                          • International Dairy·Deli·Bakery Association
                                                                                                                                          • North American Millers' Association (NAMA)
                                                                                                                                          • Panera Bread Company
                                                                                                                                          • Safeway Inc
                                                                                                                                          • The Great Atlantic and Pacific Tea Company (USA)
                                                                                                                                          • Tortilla Industry Association (TIA)
                                                                                                                                          • Wheat Foods Council (WFC)
                                                                                                                                          • Whole Foods Market Inc

                                                                                                                                          In-store Bakeries - US - September 2011

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