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Inbound Tourism - UK - November 2012

“Amongst Olympic visitors, the European proportion was slightly lower than the ‘normal’ inbound visitor profile, the North American proportion was significantly higher than normal and the proportion from other countries also higher. The Games, relatively speaking, gave more of a boost to inbound long-haul travel. This may offer UK tourism authorities a future opportunity to capitalise on the increased level of interest from non-European visitors, tempting them back for further trips or engaging them as brand ambassadors for the UK.”

– John Worthington, Senior Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • Could the Pound’s partial recovery against the euro change the game for inbound leisure travel?
  • What other forms of accommodation, apart from hotels, have benefited from rising inbound holiday demand?
  • Are APD tax rises having an impact on inbound leisure tourism?
  • How can the ‘inbound tourism jam’ be spread more widely through the UK?
  • Many overseas consumers prefer Italy or Spain as holiday destinations, so how can the UK compete?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Figure 1: Volume forecast of inbound holiday visits, 2007-17
              • Figure 2: Value* forecast of inbound holidays, 2007-17
            • Olympics disrupt a decade of leisure travel growth
              • Market factors
                • Taxing matters
                  • Figure 3: International tourist arrivals, 2011
                • Pound perks up
                  • Figure 4: Monthly average exchange rates for Sterling against the US Dollar and euro, January 2007-August 2012
                • Eurozone troubles
                  • Companies, brands and innovation
                    • Capitalising on the Games
                      • Wild Scotland
                        • City tourism in Northern Ireland
                          • London calling Chinese
                            • Eastern promise
                              • Shift towards tunnel
                                • Figure 5: Overseas residents’ holiday visits to UK, by mode of transport, percentage change 2007-11
                              • The consumer
                                • Figure 6: Previous experience of holidays in the UK and future intentions to visit, September 2012
                              • Italy/Spain first-time visitor potential
                                • London vs the rest
                                  • Figure 7: Interest in visiting the UK, September 2012
                                • Seeking the real UK
                                  • Landscape lovers
                                    • Figure 8: Attractions of the UK for holidays, September 2012
                                  • Cost, weather, food put people off most
                                    • Figure 9: Reasons why people don't want to visit the UK, September 2012
                                  • Italy is main competition
                                    • Figure 10: European holiday destinations preferred to the UK, September 2012
                                  • What we think
                                  • Issues in the Market

                                      • Could the Pound’s partial recovery against the euro change the game for inbound leisure travel?
                                        • What other forms of accommodation, apart from hotels, have benefited from rising inbound holiday demand?
                                          • Are APD tax rises having an impact on inbound leisure tourism?
                                            • How can the ‘inbound tourism jam’ be spread more widely through the UK?
                                              • Many overseas consumers prefer Italy or Spain as holiday destinations, so how can the UK compete?
                                              • Trend Application

                                                  • Trend: Accentuate The Negative
                                                    • Trend: Boomerang Generation
                                                      • 2015: Old Gold
                                                      • Market Drivers

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • Inbound tourism compass tilts towards leisure
                                                            • Figure 11: Overseas residents’ visits to the UK, by purpose of visit, 2007-11
                                                          • Olympic impact
                                                            • Net loss of 290,000 visitors?
                                                              • Figure 12: Overseas residents’ spending* in the UK, by purpose of visit, 2007-11
                                                            • UK holiday boom years
                                                              • Games spending double the average
                                                                • Figure 13: Overseas residents’ average spending* in the UK, by purpose of visit, 2007-11
                                                              • Hoteliers benefit most from leisure growth
                                                                • Figure 14: Type of accommodation used by inbound holiday visitors staying in the UK for at least one night, 2007-11
                                                              • APD rises
                                                                • Figure 15: Air Passenger Duty, September 2012
                                                                • Figure 16: Annual average exchange rates for Sterling, 2007-12
                                                              • Currency advantage lost
                                                                • Figure 17: Monthly average exchange rates for Sterling against the US Dollar and euro, January 2007-August 2012
                                                              • Inflation hits three-year low but price risks remain
                                                                • Figure 18: UK consumer price index, retail price index and VAT rate, 2007-12
                                                              • Worldwide web population growing
                                                                • Figure 19: Top 20 countries, by number of internet users, June 2012
                                                                • Figure 20: Internet penetration of top 20 countries (by number of internet users), 2010 and 2012
                                                              • Inbound market economies
                                                                • Pre-Games slump followed by bonanza for London hotels
                                                                  • Figure 21: Hotel chain performance statistics, June-September 2012
                                                                • UK visa restrictions
                                                                  • New funding for Chinese visitors
                                                                    • Airport capacity up in the air
                                                                      • Tourism downgrade fears
                                                                      • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                        • Key points
                                                                          • Mexican wave
                                                                            • Shaken but not stirred
                                                                              • Mother of the free
                                                                                • London’s your Oyster
                                                                                  • UK tourism apps
                                                                                    • Derry calling
                                                                                      • New routes to the East
                                                                                      • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • A decade of annual growth
                                                                                            • Figure 22: Overseas residents’ holiday visits to/spending in the UK, 2007-17
                                                                                          • Olympic disruption
                                                                                            • Market stabilises and may slow
                                                                                              • Over four fifths travel independently
                                                                                                • Figure 23: Overseas residents’ holiday visits to the UK – inclusive tours and independent visits, 2007-11
                                                                                                • Figure 24: Overseas residents’ holiday spend* in the UK – inclusive tours and independent visits, 2007-11
                                                                                              • Four in ten trips are short breaks
                                                                                                • Figure 25: Overseas residents’ holiday visits to the UK – short breaks vs longer holidays, 2007-11
                                                                                                • Figure 26: Overseas residents’ holiday expenditure* in the UK – short breaks vs longer holidays, 2007-11
                                                                                              • Forecast
                                                                                                • Figure 27: Volume forecast of inbound holiday visits, 2007-17
                                                                                                • Figure 28: Value* forecast of inbound holidays, 2007-17
                                                                                              • Forecast methodology
                                                                                              • Segment Performance

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • Shift in long-haul segment
                                                                                                    • Figure 29: Overseas residents’ holiday visits to UK, by region of origin, 2007-11
                                                                                                    • Figure 30: Overseas residents’ holiday spend* in the UK, by region of origin, 2007-11
                                                                                                  • French connection deepens…
                                                                                                    • Figure 31: Top ten source markets, by holiday visits, 2007-11
                                                                                                  • …but US still the highest value market
                                                                                                    • Figure 32: Top ten source markets, by holiday spend*, 2007-11
                                                                                                  • Norwegian spend rises
                                                                                                    • South American surge
                                                                                                      • Figure 33: Top 15 fastest-growing inbound holiday markets, by volume, 2010 and 2011
                                                                                                    • Chindia growth potential
                                                                                                      • Figure 34: Projected growth in UK inbound tourism, by source market, 2011-20
                                                                                                    • Modal shift
                                                                                                      • Figure 35: Overseas residents’ holiday visits to UK, by mode of transport, 2007-11
                                                                                                    • Scotland loses out…
                                                                                                      • Figure 36: Holiday visits* from overseas to areas of the UK, 2007-11
                                                                                                    • …but Edinburgh is second most popular city
                                                                                                      • Figure 37: Top ten UK towns for inbound holidaymakers, by number of visits, 2009-11
                                                                                                    • Long-haul London
                                                                                                      • Figure 38: Number of UK regional visits*, by region of origin, 2011
                                                                                                  • Market Share

                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                      • The UK pipped by Turkey
                                                                                                        • Figure 39: International tourist arrivals market share, 2007-11
                                                                                                      • UK global revenue share falls
                                                                                                        • Figure 40: International tourist expenditure market share, 2007-11
                                                                                                    • Companies and Products

                                                                                                        • VisitBritain
                                                                                                          • Overview
                                                                                                            • Financial performance
                                                                                                              • Figure 41: Grant-in-aid allocation to British Tourist Authority, 2011-15
                                                                                                              • Figure 42: Key financials for British Tourist Authority, 2011 and 2012
                                                                                                              • Figure 43: Breakdown of British Tourist Authority’s revenue, by location of sales offices, 2011 and 2012
                                                                                                            • Marketing campaigns
                                                                                                              • Strategy for 2012/13
                                                                                                                • VisitScotland
                                                                                                                  • Overview
                                                                                                                    • Inbound breakdown
                                                                                                                      • Figure 44: Top ten origins of international holiday visitors to Scotland, 2011
                                                                                                                    • Financial information
                                                                                                                      • Figure 45: Key financials for VisitScotland, 2010 and 2011
                                                                                                                    • Marketing campaigns
                                                                                                                      • Strategy for 2012/13
                                                                                                                        • Visit Wales
                                                                                                                          • Overview
                                                                                                                            • Inbound breakdown
                                                                                                                              • Figure 46: Top ten origins of international holiday visitors to Wales, 2011
                                                                                                                            • Marketing campaigns
                                                                                                                              • Northern Ireland Tourism Board
                                                                                                                                • Overview
                                                                                                                                  • Inbound breakdown
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 47: Top five origins of international holiday visitors to Northern Ireland, 2011
                                                                                                                                  • Financial information
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 48: Key financials for Northern Ireland Tourist Board, 2010 and 2011
                                                                                                                                  • Strategy for 2012/13
                                                                                                                                    • London & Partners
                                                                                                                                      • Overview
                                                                                                                                        • Inbound breakdown
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 49: Top ten origins of international holiday visitors to London, 2011
                                                                                                                                        • Strategy
                                                                                                                                          • UKinbound
                                                                                                                                            • Financial information
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 50: Key financials for UKinbound Ltd, 2010 and 2011
                                                                                                                                            • Recent activity
                                                                                                                                              • British Airways
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 51: Key financials for British Airways Plc, 2010 and 2011
                                                                                                                                                • New routes
                                                                                                                                                  • easyJet
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 52: Key financials for easyJet Plc, 2010 and 2011
                                                                                                                                                  • New routes
                                                                                                                                                    • Ryanair
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 53: Key financials for Ryanair Holdings Plc, 2011 and 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • New routes
                                                                                                                                                      • Eurostar
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 54: Key financials for Eurostar International Ltd, 2009 and 2010
                                                                                                                                                      • Experience and Intentions of Holidaying in the UK

                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 55: Previous experience of holidays in the UK and future intentions to visit, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Europe
                                                                                                                                                            • Italy and Spain have highest new growth potential
                                                                                                                                                              • US
                                                                                                                                                                • One in four Americans have holidayed in the UK
                                                                                                                                                                • Interest in Visiting the UK

                                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 56: Interest in visiting the UK, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                    • Europe
                                                                                                                                                                      • Germans are biggest countryphiles/Spanish are biggest cityphiles
                                                                                                                                                                        • Italians and Spanish seek English lessons
                                                                                                                                                                          • Olympic influence
                                                                                                                                                                            • The US
                                                                                                                                                                              • Major tourist attractions more important
                                                                                                                                                                                • Previous visitors vs first-timers
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 57: Interest in visiting the UK, by previous experience of holidays in the UK and future intentions to visit, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                              • Attractions of the UK as a Holiday Destination

                                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 58: Attractions of the UK for holidays, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Landscape is major draw
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Scenery
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 59: Agreement with the statement ‘I am attracted to the UK by its scenery’, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Heritage
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 60: Agreement with the statement ‘I am fascinated by the UK’s heritage (eg royal family, historic buildings etc)’, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Culture
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 61: Agreement with the statement ‘I am attracted to the UK by its culture (eg theatre, music etc)’, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Multiculturalism
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 62: Agreement with the statement ‘The UK’s multiculturalism appeals to me’, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Pubs
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 63: Agreement with the statement ‘I am fascinated by the UK’s pubs’*, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Shopping
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 64: Agreement with the statement ‘I am attracted to the UK for its shopping’, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Humour
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 65: Agreement with the statement ‘I am attracted to the UK by the British sense of humour’, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Nightlife
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 66: Agreement with the statement ‘I am attracted to the UK for its nightlife’, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Reasons For Not Holidaying in the UK

                                                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Cost, weather and food are biggest deterrents
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 67: Reasons why people don't want to visit the UK, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Europe
                                                                                                                                                                                        • The US
                                                                                                                                                                                        • European Countries Preferred to the UK as a Holiday Destination

                                                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 68: European holiday destinations preferred to the UK, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Southern Europe is biggest threat to UK
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 69: Forecasts for inbound holidays volume, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 70: Forecasts for inbound holidays value, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Experience and Intentions of Holidaying in the UK

                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 71: Previous experience of holidays in the UK and future intentions to visit, by demographics – France, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 72: Previous experience of holidays in the UK and future intentions to visit, by demographics – Germany, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 73: Previous experience of holidays in the UK and future intentions to visit, by demographics – Italy, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 74: Previous experience of holidays in the UK and future intentions to visit, by demographics – Spain, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 75: Previous experience of holidays in the UK and future intentions to visit, by demographics – US, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Interest in Visiting the UK

                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 76: Most popular agreements with visiting the UK, by demographics – France, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 77: Next most popular agreements with visiting the UK, by demographics – France, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 78: Most popular agreements with visiting the UK, by demographics – Germany, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 79: Next most popular agreements with visiting the UK, by demographics – Germany, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 80: Most popular agreements with visiting the UK, by demographics – Italy, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 81: Next most popular agreements with visiting the UK, by demographics – Italy, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 82: Agreements with visiting the UK, by demographics – Spain, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 83: Agreements with visiting the UK, by demographics – Spain, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 84: Agreements with most popular visiting the UK, by demographics – US, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 85: Agreements with next most popular visiting the UK, by demographics – US, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Attractions of the UK as a Holiday Destination

                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 86: Agreement with most popular statements regarding UK attractions, by demographics – France, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 87: Agreement with next most popular statements regarding UK attractions, by demographics – France, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 88: Agreement with most popular statements regarding UK attractions, by demographics – Germany, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 89: Agreement with next most popular statements regarding UK attractions, by demographics – Germany, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 90: Agreement with next most popular statements regarding UK attractions, by demographics – Germany, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 91: Agreement with most popular statements regarding UK attractions, by demographics – Italy, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 92: Agreement with next most popular statements regarding UK attractions, by demographics – Italy, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 93: Agreement with most popular statements regarding UK attractions, by demographics – Spain, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 94: Agreement with next most popular statements regarding UK attractions, by demographics – Spain, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 95: Agreement with most popular statements regarding UK attractions, by demographics – US, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 96: Agreement with next most popular statements regarding UK attractions, by demographics – US, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Reasons for Not Holidaying in the UK

                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 97: Reasons why people don't want to visit the UK, by demographics – US, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – European Countries Preferred to the UK as a Holiday Destination

                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 98: Most popular European holiday destinations preferred to the UK, by demographics – France, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 99: Next most popular European holiday destinations preferred to the UK, by demographics – France, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 100: Most popular European holiday destinations preferred to the UK, by demographics – Germany, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 101: Next most popular European holiday destinations preferred to the UK, by demographics – Germany, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 102: Other European holiday destinations preferred to the UK, by demographics – Germany, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 103: Most popular European holiday destinations preferred to the UK, by demographics – Italy, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 104: Next most popular European holiday destinations preferred to the UK, by demographics – Italy, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 105: Other European holiday destinations preferred to the UK, by demographics – Italy, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 106: Most popular European holiday destinations preferred to the UK, by demographics – Spain, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 107: Next most popular European holiday destinations preferred to the UK, by demographics – Spain, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 108: Other European holiday destinations preferred to the UK, by demographics – Spain, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 109: Most popular European holiday destinations preferred to the UK, by demographics – US, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 110: Next most popular European holiday destinations preferred to the UK, by demographics – US, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 111: Other European holiday destinations preferred to the UK, by demographics – US, September 2012

                                                                                                                                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                          • AMR Corporation (American Airlines)
                                                                                                                                                                                          • British Airways Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                          • British Incoming Tour Operators Association (The)
                                                                                                                                                                                          • British Midland Airways Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Cathay Pacific Airways Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Civil Aviation Authority
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Commonwealth Games Federation
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Competition Commission
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Department for Culture Media and Sport
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Deutsche Bahn
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Deutsche Lufthansa AG
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Emirates
                                                                                                                                                                                          • English Heritage
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Eurostar UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Expedia.co.uk
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Finnair Oyj
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Foreign and Commonwealth Office [FCO]
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Google UK
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Heritage Lottery Fund
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Historic Royal Palaces
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Iberia, Líneas Aéreas de España SA
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Japan Airlines Corporation [JAL]
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Lan Airlines S.A.
                                                                                                                                                                                          • London & Continental Stations & Property Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                          • London & Partners
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Macdonald Hotels and Resorts
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Merlin Entertainments Group Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                          • National Geographic Society
                                                                                                                                                                                          • National Trust (Enterprises) Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Northern Ireland Tourist Board,
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Qantas Airways Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Ryanair Holdings plc
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Société Nationale des Chemins de Fer Français
                                                                                                                                                                                          • STA Travel
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Tate Modern
                                                                                                                                                                                          • The British Tourist Authority
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Time Out London
                                                                                                                                                                                          • UKinbound
                                                                                                                                                                                          • United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Virgin Atlantic Airways Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                          • VisitBritain
                                                                                                                                                                                          • VisitEngland
                                                                                                                                                                                          • VisitScotland
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Welsh Tourist Board
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Yahoo! UK & Ireland

                                                                                                                                                                                          Inbound Tourism - UK - November 2012

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