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- Innovation on the Menu: Flavor Trends - US - August 2011
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Terms used in the report:
Casual Dining – Full-service restaurant chains with average checks of $8-20 per entrée. Restaurants frequently carry beer and wine licenses. With an appetizer, beverage, and dessert, checks frequently come to $20 per person, though lunch specials less than $10 for an entire meal are also common. Examples of chains included in this segment are Chili’s, Applebee’s, and Red Lobster.
Chain – Chains are multi-unit foodservice concepts operating under a single brand name, such as McDonald’s or Pizza Hut. A restaurant chain consists of two or more restaurants owned by one person or company. Usually, all restaurants in a chain have similar décor and serve the same food.
Consumer Unit – A consumer unit is defined as either 1. all members of a particular household who are related by blood, marriage, adoption, or other legal arrangements; 2. a person living alone or sharing a household with others or living as a roomer in a private home or lodging house or in permanent living quarters in a hotel or motel, but who is financially independent; or 3. two or more persons living together who pool their incomes to make joint expenditure decisions. Financial independence is determined by the three major expense categories: housing, food, and other living expenses. To be considered financially independent, a respondent must fulfill at least two of the three major expense categories.
Full-service restaurant - Full-service restaurants are, by definition, establishments that provide table service. Food is ordered at the table and is paid for at the end of the meal. The segment is composed of several subsegments, differentiated primarily by check size. These include family/midscale restaurants and casual dining restaurants.
Scope and Themes
What you need to know
Data sources
Mintel Menu Insights
Consumer survey data
Advertising creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
Executive Summary
The general economy influences menu and flavor development
Government plays a greater role in foodservice
New media provide new opportunities
Look out below, flavor trends fall from above
Ingredient familiarity and ingredient interest diverge
I trust you won’t lead me astray
Finally, a definition of comfort food
Insights and Opportunities
Local goes beyond ingredients
Communicate flavor
Figure 1: Means of learning about new flavors and ingredients, April 2011
Step away from the price promotion
Build on what you do well
Figure 2: Independents outperform chains, March 2011
Address areas for improvement
Figure 3: Chains outperform independents, March 2011
Look upstream
Inspire Insights
Trend—The Real Thing
Trend—Mood to Order
Figure 4: Comfort food defined, April 2011
Market Drivers
Key points
Economic factors
Unemployment and underemployment recovery rate is slow and tenuous
Figure 5: Unemployment and underemployment rates, January 2007-July 2011
Operator confidence waning
Figure 6: Restaurant Performance Index, January 2009-June 2011
Disposable income flat but consumer confidence sinking
Figure 7: U.S. real disposable personal income growth, January 2007-June 2011
Figure 8: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, March 2007-July 2011
Commodity costs hamper innovation
Figure 9: Retail commodity prices, July 2010-June 2011
Figure 10: Consumer Price Index for food at home and food away from home, 2009-11
A changing demographic
Figure 11: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
Salt—The next frontier
Marketing Strategies
Overview
Cheap but not easy: Social networking sites
Figure 12: Social media usage, by age, September 2010
Wendy’s
Chili’s
Do you have my email?
Figure 13: Arby’s Jamocha email, 2011
Figure 14: Applebee’s stacked, stuffed & topped email, 2011
Television still rules
Figure 15: Subway TV ad, 2011
Figure 16: Popeyes TV ad, 2011
Figure 17: Taco Bell Cantina Taco ad, 2011
Figure 18: Taco Bell real beef ad, 2011
Figure 19: Domino’s TV ad, 2010
Figure 20: Olive Garden TV ad, 2011
Menu Insights Analysis: Cuisine Types
Overview
Figure 21: Top 10 cuisine types on restaurant menus, Q2 2008-Q2 2011
Figure 22: Top 10 cuisine types on fine dining restaurant menus, Q2 2008-Q2 2011
American menus take on regional flavors
Italian fare favors regions and traditions
Mexican makes some waves
Pan Asian picks up
Opportunities for menu development
Menu Insights Analysis: Top Food Flavors
Overview
Figure 23: Top 10 flavors on restaurant menus, Q2 2008-Q2 2011
Figure 24: Top 10 flavors on fine dining restaurant menus, Q2 2008-Q2 2011
Garlic has global appeal
Spicy heats up
Herbs bring fresh flavors
Smoked sends flavorful signals
Sweet flavors stay the course
Opportunities for menu development
Menu Insights Analysis: Beverage Flavors
Nonalcoholic drinks
Figure 25: Top 10 nonalcoholic beverage flavors on restaurant menus, by incidence, Q2 2008-Q2 2011
Alcoholic drinks
Figure 26: Top 10 alcoholic beverage flavors on restaurant menus, by incidence, Q2 2008-Q2 2011
Opportunities for menu development
Restaurant Flavor Ratings
Key points
Fine dining leads in flavorfulness
Figure 27: Restaurant segment flavor ratings, by gender, April 2011
Figure 28: Restaurant segment flavor ratings, by household income, April 2011
Figure 29: Restaurant segment flavor ratings, by race/ethnicity, April 2011
Cuisine Interest
Key points
Traditional ethnic still holds appeal
Figure 30: Cuisine type interest, by age, April 2011
Figure 31: Cuisine type interest, by household income, April 2011
Figure 32: Cuisine type interest, by race/ethnicity, April 2011
Interest in and Acceptance of New Flavors
Key points
We know the ingredients we use
Figure 33: Ingredient/flavor familiarity, by gender, April 2011
Figure 34: Ingredient/flavor familiarity, by age, April 2011
Figure 35: Ingredient/flavor familiarity, by household income, April 2011
Figure 36: Ingredient/flavor familiarity, by race/ethnicity, April 2011
Figure 37: Ingredient/flavor familiarity and interest, April 2011
Figure 38: New ingredient/flavor interest, by gender, April 2011
Figure 39: New ingredient/flavor interest, by household income, April 2011
Figure 40: New ingredient/flavor interest, by race/ethnicity, April 2011
Learning About New Flavors and Ingredients
Key points
Friends, family, and the name on the cover
Figure 41: Means of learning about new flavors and ingredients, by gender, April 2011
Figure 42: Means of learning about new flavors and ingredients, by age, April 2011
Figure 43: Means of learning about new flavors and ingredients, by household income, April 2011
Comfort Food Defined
Key points
Comfort food is meant to be enjoyed
Figure 44: Comfort food defined, by gender, April 2011
Figure 45: Comfort food defined, by age, April 2011
Figure 46: Comfort food defined, by race/ethnicity, April 2011
Attitudes Toward Restaurants and Flavorings
Key points
For new flavors, get them while they’re young
Figure 47: Attitudes toward restaurants and flavorings, by gender, April 2011
Figure 48: Attitudes toward restaurants and flavorings, by age, April 2011
Figure 49: Attitudes toward restaurants and flavorings, by race/ethnicity, April 2011
Cluster Analysis
Cookbook Flavor Seekers
Characteristics
Demographics
Opportunity
Chocolate, Chicken Comforted
Characteristics
Demographics
Opportunity
Flavor Flaunters
Characteristics
Demographics
Opportunity
Cluster characteristic tables
Figure 50: Menu innovation clusters, April 2011
Figure 51: Cuisine type interest, by clusters, April 2011
Figure 52: Means of learning about new flavors and ingredients, by clusters, April 2011
Figure 53: Attitudes toward restaurants and flavorings, by clusters, April 2011
Figure 54: Comfort food defined, by clusters, April 2011
Cluster demographic tables
Figure 55: Menu innovation clusters, by gender, April 2011
Figure 56: Menu innovation clusters, by age, April 2011
Figure 57: Menu innovation clusters, by household income, April 2011
Figure 58: Menu innovation clusters, by race, April 2011
Figure 59: Menu innovation clusters, by Hispanic origin, April 2011
Cluster methodology
Custom Groups: Light, Medium, Heavy
Figure 62: New ingredient/flavor interest, by usage, April 2011
Figure 63: Attitudes toward restaurants and flavorings, by usage, April 2011
Appendix: Trade Associations
- Absolut Spirits Company (USA)
- AFC Enterprises Inc.
- Applebee's International Inc.
- Arby's Restaurant Group
- Bob Evans Farms Inc.
- Brinker International Inc.
- Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.
- Coca-Cola Company (The) (USA)
- Cold Stone Creamery
- Darden Restaurants Inc.
- Denny's Corporation
- Domino's Pizza LLB
- Dr Pepper Snapple Group, Inc.
- Elmer's Restaurants Inc.
- Facebook, Inc.
- Food and Drug Administration
- Food Distributors International
- Hardee's Food Systems, Inc.
- International Food Service Executives Association (IFSEA)
- International Foodservice Distributors Association (IFDA)
- International Foodservice Manufacturers Association (IFMA)
- International Franchise Association (IFA)
- International Hotel and Restaurants Association (IH&RA)
- McCormick & Schmick's Seafood Restaurants, Inc.
- McDonald's Corporation
- MySpace.com
- National Council of Chain Restaurants (NCCR)
- National Restaurant Association (NRA)
- National Retail Federation (NRF)
- P.F. Chang's China Bistro Inc.
- Papa John's International, Inc.
- Pizza Hut Inc
- Qdoba Restaurant Corporation
- Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc.
- Reuters Group PLC
- Ruby Tuesday Inc.
- Schlotzsky's Inc.
- Sonic Corp.
- Starbucks Corporation
- Subway
- Taco Bell Corp.
- TGI Friday's
- The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
- The Wendy's Company
- Twitter, Inc.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- U.S. Bureau of the Census
- U.S. Department of Agriculture
- University of Michigan, The
- Whataburger Restaurants LP
- Zaxby's Franchising, Inc.
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