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Juice and Juice Drinks - US - October 2016

“Like other non-alcoholic beverage leaders, including CSDs and dairy milk, the category is losing share to other beverage types that offer flavor variety and functional innovation, some with lower sugar/calorie totals. The importance of diversifying consumption occasions can be seen in the growth of snack-friendly smoothies and decline of 100% juice, which is often pigeonholed for breakfast.”
- Beth Bloom, Senior Food & Drink Analyst

This Report discusses the following topics:

  • Category stagnation continues
  • 100% juice struggles
  • Morning leads as breakfast occasion; juice drinks/smoothies are versatile

For the purposes of this Report, Mintel has used the following definitions:

  • 100% juice: fruit and vegetable juices, mixes, and concentrates, with no other ingredients added; includes both 100% juice blends and 100% pure juice of a single kind
  • Juice drinks: juices, mixes, and concentrates, containing ingredients other than fruit and/or vegetable juice, such as corn syrup or other sweeteners and flavorings
  • RTD (ready-to-drink) smoothies: drinks made with fruit and/or juice with some kind of thickener, such as fruit puree or milk

Fruit and vegetable juice and juice drinks covered here include those sold in a number of formats:

  • Aseptic (boxed), canned, or bottled
  • Shelf-stable, refrigerated, or frozen

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Category stagnation continues
            • Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, at current prices, 2011-21
          • 100% juice struggles
            • Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
          • Morning leads as breakfast occasion; juice drinks/smoothies are versatile
            • Figure 3: Consumption occasion – Daypart, by drink type, July 2016
          • The opportunities
            • More than a quarter of category participants purchase organic products
              • Figure 4: Types purchased – Claims, by segment, July 2016
            • 100% juice pack size decreases; smoothies grow
              • Figure 5: 100% juice, juice drink, and smoothie launches, by average launch size, 2012-16*
            • Retail placement has a strong impact on product perception
              • Figure 6: Correspondence analysis – Juice and juice drinks, July 2016
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Category stagnation continues
                • Smoothies take dollar share away from 100% juice
                  • 100% juice struggles
                    • Supermarkets lose share to convenience stores and other channels
                      • Updated nutrition facts panel could help 100% juice
                      • Market Size and Forecast

                        • Category stagnation continues
                          • Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, at current prices, 2011-21
                          • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, at current prices, 2011-21
                          • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                      • Market Breakdown

                        • Smoothies take dollar share away from 100% juice
                          • Figure 10: Total US retail sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, at current prices, by segment, 2011 and 2016 (est)
                        • 100% juice struggles
                          • Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
                          • Figure 12: MULO volume sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by segment, 2010 and 2015
                        • Supermarkets lose share to convenience stores and other channels
                          • Figure 13: Total US retail sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by channel, at current prices, 2011-16
                        • Category continues strong growth across natural channels
                          • Figure 14: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks July 13, 2014-July 10, 2016
                      • Market Perspective

                        • The non-alcoholic beverage market is highly competitive
                          • Figure 15: Non-alcoholic beverage consumption, November 2015
                          • Figure 16: Percent change in sales non-alcoholic drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2014-15
                        • If you can’t beat ‘em, mimic them
                          • Figure 17: Correspondence analysis – Juice and juice drinks, October 2016
                          • Figure 18: Juice and juice drinks, October 2016
                      • Market Factors

                        • Consumers see the benefit of healthy eating
                          • Figure 19: Important to achieve good health – Any top three rank, May 2015
                        • …but close to a third of consumers don’t have time for healthy meals
                          • Figure 20: Attitudes toward health – Agree
                        • Taste leads non-alcoholic beverage purchase decision
                          • Figure 21: Beverage purchase factors – Any rank, April 2016
                        • Government guidelines crack down on added sugar
                        • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                          • MULO sales are highly fragmented
                            • Juice drink brands with natural positioning continue to thrive
                              • 100% juice pack size decreases; smoothies grow
                                • Tropical flavors grow among launches, traditional flavors decline
                                • Leading Company Sales of 100% Juice, Juice Drinks and Smoothies

                                  • MULO sales are highly fragmented
                                    • Brand sales of 100% juice, juice drinks and smoothies
                                      • Figure 22: MULO sales of 100% juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by leading companies, 52 weeks ending May 15, 2016
                                      • Figure 23: MULO sales of 100% juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                  • What’s Working?

                                    • Juice drink brands with natural positioning continue to thrive
                                      • Coca-Cola brands aim at adult audience, even for kid-focused products
                                        • Figure 24: “Simply Limeade® | How To Make A Spicy Pineapple Frozen Margarita,” online video, June 2016
                                        • Figure 25: “Tea Party with Dad & Mr. Bentley | Minute Maid Premium Fruit Punch Commercial,” online video, July 2016
                                      • Ocean Spray aims to expand appeal through function
                                        • Figure 26: “Ocean Spray® PACt® Cranberry Extract Water – A Better Water for a Better You,” online video, July 2016
                                        • Figure 27: MULO sales of juice drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                      • Smoothies see 6% dollar sales growth at MULO
                                        • Figure 28: MULO sales of smoothies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                      • 100% juice pack sizes decrease; smoothies grow
                                        • Figure 29: 100% juice, juice drink, and smoothie launches, by average launch size, 2012-16*
                                      • A third of smoothie launches in the past year carried an organic claim
                                        • Figure 30: 100% juice, juice drink, and smoothie launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
                                      • Tropical flavors grow among launches, traditional flavors decline
                                        • Figure 31: 100% juice, juice drink, and smoothie launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
                                        • Figure 32: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by flavor, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
                                      • Sales of stevia-sweetened products double from 2014-16 in natural channels
                                        • Figure 33: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by presence of alternative sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
                                    • What’s Struggling?

                                      • Florida’s Natural and V8 Fusion stumble
                                        • Figure 34: “Welch’s 100% Grape Juice has Something for Everyone,” online video, September 2016
                                        • Figure 35: MULO sales of 100% juice, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                      • Shelf stable launches decline
                                        • Figure 36: 100% juice, juice, drink and smoothie launches, by storage type, 2012-16*
                                    • What’s Next?

                                      • Going beyond fruit and veg
                                        • Don’t be so sweet
                                          • Focus on function to diversify consumption occasions
                                            • Bulking up
                                              • Give ‘em a shot
                                              • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                • 85% of consumers purchase products in the category; 100% juice leads
                                                  • The category performs well for taste
                                                    • Morning leads as breakfast occasion; juice drinks/smoothies are versatile
                                                      • Retail placement has strong impact on product perception
                                                        • Close to half of smoothie buyers purchase single-serving containers
                                                          • More than a quarter of category participants purchase organic products
                                                          • 100% Juice, Juice Drink, and Smoothie Purchase

                                                            • 85% of consumers purchase products in the category; 100% juice leads
                                                              • Figure 37: Purchase, July 2016
                                                            • A quarter of shoppers are purchasing products for children
                                                              • Figure 38: Purchase – For a child under the age of 18, July 2016
                                                            • Asian shoppers are strong targets for smoothie purchase
                                                              • Figure 39: Purchase, by race, July 2016
                                                          • Reasons for Purchase

                                                            • The category performs well for flavor
                                                              • Figure 40: Reasons for purchase, July 2016
                                                            • The category hits the mark for iGens
                                                              • Figure 41: Reasons for purchase – Enjoyment, by generation, July 2016
                                                            • Health appeals to older consumers, Millennials look for other function
                                                              • Figure 42: Reasons for purchase – Function, by generation, July 2016
                                                            • Variety appeals to younger shoppers
                                                              • Figure 43: Reasons for purchase – Other, by generation, July 2016
                                                            • Juice drinks lead for refreshment
                                                              • Figure 44: Reasons for purchase, by type consumed, July 2016
                                                          • Consumption Occasions

                                                            • Three quarters of adults drink products in the category
                                                              • Figure 45: Consumption, July 2016
                                                            • 100% juice does the best job of retaining consumers as they age
                                                              • Figure 46: Consumption, by generation, July 2016
                                                            • Hispanics are significantly more likely than non-Hispanics to drink juice drinks and smoothies
                                                              • Figure 47: Consumption, by Hispanic origin, July 2016
                                                            • Morning leads as consumption occasion; juice drinks/smoothies are versatile
                                                              • Figure 48: Consumption occasion – Daypart, by drink type, July 2016
                                                            • Room exists for diversifying occasions
                                                                • Figure 49: Consumption occasion, by drink type, July 2016
                                                            • Retail Placement

                                                              • Retail placement has a strong impact on product perception
                                                                • Figure 50: Correspondence analysis – Juice and juice drinks, July 2016
                                                                • Figure 51: Juice and juice drinks, July 2016
                                                              • The highest percentage of consumers purchase products in refrigerated dairy case
                                                                • Figure 52: Retail placement – Something I buy, July 2016
                                                              • iGens exhibit the largest range of in-store purchase locations
                                                                • Figure 53: Retail placement – Something I buy, by generation, July 2016
                                                              • Shelf stable may appeal for affordability
                                                                • Figure 54: Retail placement – Something I buy, by HH income, July 2016
                                                              • Smoothies do well at checkout
                                                                • Figure 55: Retail placement – Something I buy, by type, July 2016
                                                            • Types Purchased

                                                              • Packaging
                                                                • Close to half of smoothie buyers purchase single-serving containers
                                                                  • Figure 56: Types purchased – Size, by segment, July 2016
                                                                • Single-serve formats appeal to younger shoppers
                                                                  • Figure 57: Types purchased – Size, by generation, July 2016
                                                                • Plastic containers/jugs lead juice usage
                                                                  • Figure 58: Juice and juice drink forms used, July 2016
                                                                • Storage
                                                                  • Use of refrigerated juice continues to lead
                                                                    • Figure 59: Juice and juice drink storage formats used, 2012 and 2016
                                                                  • Claims
                                                                    • More than a quarter of category participants purchase organic products
                                                                      • Figure 60: Types purchased – Claims, by segment, July 2016
                                                                    • iGens and Millennials are strong targets for product claims
                                                                      • Figure 61: Types purchased – Claims, by generation, July 2016
                                                                    • Flavor
                                                                      • Orange still leads HH consumption by a large margin
                                                                        • Figure 62: Juice and juice drink flavors used, 2016
                                                                      • Kids drive the popularity of certain flavors
                                                                        • Figure 63: Juice and juice drink flavors used, by presence of children, 2016
                                                                      • Close to a third of consumers purchase products made with vegetables
                                                                        • Figure 64: Types purchased – Select flavors, July 2016
                                                                        • Figure 65: Types purchased – Select flavors, by generation, July 2016
                                                                      • Concentrate
                                                                        • Consumers are slightly less likely to purchase juices made from concentrate
                                                                          • Figure 66: Types purchased – Concentrate, July 2016
                                                                      • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                        • Data sources
                                                                          • Sales data
                                                                            • Fan chart forecast
                                                                              • Consumer survey data
                                                                                • Correspondence analysis methodology
                                                                                  • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                    • Abbreviations
                                                                                    • Appendix – Market

                                                                                        • Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice drinks, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                                        • Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                                        • Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of 100% juice, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                                        • Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of 100% juice, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                                        • Figure 71: Total US retail sales and forecast of smoothies, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                                        • Figure 72: Total US retail sales and forecast of smoothies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                                        • Figure 73: MULO volume sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by segment, 2010 and 2015
                                                                                        • Figure 74: US supermarket sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, at current prices, 2011-16
                                                                                        • Figure 75: US convenience store sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, at current prices, 2011-16
                                                                                        • Figure 76: US sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies through other retail channels, at current prices, 2011-16
                                                                                        • Figure 77: Smoothie launches, by store type, 2012-16*
                                                                                    • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                                        • Figure 78: MULO sales of 100% juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                                                        • Figure 79: 100% juice, juice drink, and smoothie launches, by average launch size, 2012-16*
                                                                                        • Figure 80: 100% juice launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
                                                                                        • Figure 81: Juice drink launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
                                                                                        • Figure 82: Smoothie launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
                                                                                        • Figure 83: 100% juice launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
                                                                                        • Figure 84: Juice drink launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
                                                                                        • Figure 85: Smoothie launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
                                                                                        • Figure 86: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by presence of alternative sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
                                                                                        • Figure 87: 100% juice launches, by storage type, 2012-16*
                                                                                        • Figure 88: Juice drink launches, by storage type, 2012-16*
                                                                                        • Figure 89: Smoothie launches, by storage type, 2012-16*
                                                                                        • Figure 90: Sales of 100% juice, by storage, at current prices, 2011-16 (est)
                                                                                        • Figure 91: Sales of juice drinks, by storage, at current prices, 2011-16 (est)
                                                                                        • Figure 92: Sales of 100% juice, by format, at current prices, 2011-16 (est)
                                                                                        • Figure 93: Sales of juice drinks, by format, at current prices, 2011-16 (est)
                                                                                        • Figure 94: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks July 13, 2014-July 10, 2016
                                                                                        • Figure 95: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
                                                                                        • Figure 96: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by flavor, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
                                                                                        • Figure 97: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 7/13/14 and 7/10/16
                                                                                        • Figure 98: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by gluten-free labelling/certification, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
                                                                                        • Figure 99: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by GMO ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
                                                                                        • Figure 100: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by "natural" labeling or perception, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
                                                                                        • Figure 101: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by packaging, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
                                                                                        • Figure 102: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by prebiotic and probiotic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending July 13, 2014 and July 10, 2016
                                                                                    • Appendix – Consumer

                                                                                        • Figure 103: Juice and juice drink forms used, 2012-16
                                                                                        • Figure 104: Juice and juice drink forms used, by HH with children, 2016
                                                                                        • Figure 105: Juice and juice drink storage formats used, 2012-16
                                                                                        • Figure 106: Juice and juice drink flavors used, 2012-16
                                                                                        • Figure 107: Juice and juice drink flavors used, by presence of children, 2016
                                                                                        • Figure 108: Juice and juice drink flavors used, by race and Hispanic origin, 2016
                                                                                        • Figure 109: Orange juice kinds used, 2012-16

                                                                                    Companies Covered

                                                                                    • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                                                    Juice and Juice Drinks - US - October 2016

                                                                                    £3,199.84 (Excl.Tax)