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Juice, Juice Drinks and Smoothies - US - November 2015

"Total US retail sales of 100% juice, juice drinks, and smoothies are estimated to grow by less than 1% in 2015, continuing the flatlining seen in recent years. Strong growth in the small, smoothies segment, driven by positive health perception and consumer interest in healthy snacking, has tempered losses seen in the much larger 100% juice segment, and the stagnation of juice drink sales."

- Beth Bloom, Food & Drink Analyst

This report looks at the following issues:

  • Category sales stay flat in 2015; 4% growth 2010-15
  • Juice drinks and 100% juice lose share to smoothies
  • Indulgent kid-focused drinks see declines

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Category sales stay flat in 2015; 4% growth 2010-15
            • Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at current prices, 2010-20
          • Juice drinks and 100% juice lose share to smoothies
            • Figure 2: Segment share of total US retail sales of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, 2010-20
          • Indulgent kid-focused drinks see declines
            • The opportunities
              • A move away from shelf stable may boost juice drink/smoothie appeal
                • Figure 3: Share of segment sales, by storage, 2010-15
              • Clean label claims see strong growth
                • Figure 4: Smoothie launches, by top 10 leading claims, 2010-15*
              • Occasion-specific smoothie positioning may be in order
                • Figure 5: Share of smoothie launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-15*
              • What it means
              • The Market – What You Need to Know

                • Category sales stay flat in 2015; 4% growth 2010-15
                  • Smoothie sales grow 120% 2010-15
                    • Move away from shelf stable may be boosting juice drink/smoothie appeal
                      • Juice/juice drink consumption on the decline
                        • Retail smoothies compete with foodservice and homemade
                        • Market Size and Forecast

                          • Category sales stay flat in 2015; grow 4% overall 2010-15
                            • Figure 6: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at current prices, 2010-20
                        • Market Breakdown

                          • Juice drinks and 100% juice lose share to smoothies
                            • Figure 7: Segment share of total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, 2010-20
                          • Smoothie sales grow 120% 2010-15
                            • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
                          • A move away from shelf stable may boost juice drink/smoothie appeal
                            • Figure 9: Share of segment sales, by storage, 2010-15
                          • Convenience stores and natural channels see strong category growth
                            • Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
                        • Market Perspective

                          • Juice/juice drink consumption on the decline
                            • Figure 11: Household consumption of juice/juice drinks, by type, 2011-2015
                          • A range of non-alcoholic beverage categories experienced year-over-year growth in consumption
                            • Figure 12: Any consumption in the past three months, by drink type, June 2014 and June 2015
                          • Nutritional drinks see strong growth
                            • Figure 13: Statements related to smoothies -- Meal, September 2015
                          • Retail smoothies compete with foodservice and homemade
                            • Figure 14: Smoothie purchase location (nets*), September 2015
                        • Market Factors

                          • 2015 dietary guidelines link lack of vitamins/minerals to a rise in chronic diseases in the US
                            • A healthy diet is seen as better than supplements for vitamin intake
                              • Figure 15: Select attitudes toward vitamins, minerals, and supplements – any agree*, June 2015
                            • Overweight/obesity rates remain an issue
                              • Figure 16: National percent of adults aged 18+ who are obese or overweight, 2011-13
                              • Figure 17: National percent of students in grades 9-12 who are obese or overweight, 2001-13
                            • Snack habits can help drive category growth
                              • Figure 18: Daily snacking frequency, January 2015
                            • Households with children are important to the category, but wider appeal should be sought
                              • Figure 19: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
                          • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                            • Top three companies lose slight share, Coca-Cola stays on top
                              • Clean label claims see growth
                                • Indulgent kid-focused drinks see declines
                                  • Vegetable/savory flavors may broaden consumption occasion
                                  • Manufacturer Sales of Juice, Juice Drinks and Smoothies

                                    • Top three companies lose slight share, Coca-Cola stays on top
                                      • Figure 20: Share of sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                  • What’s Working?

                                    • Clean label claims see strong growth
                                      • Figure 21: Smoothie launches, by top 10 leading claims, 2010-15*
                                      • Figure 22: MULO sales of juice drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                    • Pepsico makes up half of smoothie sales and growing
                                      • Figure 23: MULO sales of smoothies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                    • Coconut water continues to perform well
                                      • Figure 24: MULO sales of 100% juice, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                    • Stevia sees strong growth as juice drinks sweetener in natural channels
                                      • Figure 25: Share of natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by type of sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
                                    • Probiotic claims on the rise
                                      • Figure 26: Share of natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by prebiotic and probiotic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
                                    • Vegetable flavors up in 100% juice
                                      • Figure 27: Share of 100% juice launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-15*
                                  • What’s Struggling?

                                    • Indulgent kid-focused drinks see declines
                                      • Shelf-stable launches down
                                        • Figure 28: Share of 100% juice, juice drink and smoothie launches, by storage type, 2010-15*
                                      • Natural claims down in 100% juice
                                        • Figure 29: Share of 100% juice launches, by top 10 claims, 2010-15*
                                      • Traditional flavors lose share in natural channels
                                        • Figure 30: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by flavor, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
                                    • What’s Next?

                                      • Occasion-specific smoothie positioning
                                        • Figure 31: Share of smoothie launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-15*
                                      • Savory flavors may appeal for lunch/dinner
                                        • International flavors and formats
                                          • Alcohol positioning can boost adult feel
                                          • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                            • 100% juice leads consumption
                                              • Breakfast rules consumption occasion; opportunity for snack positioning/breakfast smoothies
                                                • A quarter of smoothie drinkers are interested in chunky mix-ins
                                                  • Category may represent convenient health for parents
                                                  • Consumption Occasion

                                                    • 100% juice leads as part of breakfast; opportunity for snack positioning
                                                      • Figure 32: Select juice, juice drink, smoothie consumption occasions, September 2015
                                                    • Millennials appear as a target across 100% juice occasions
                                                      • Figure 33: Select 100% juice consumption occasions, by generation groups, September 2015
                                                    • iGens look to juice drinks as snacks
                                                      • Figure 34: Select juice drink consumption occasions, by generation groups, September 2015
                                                    • Opportunity exists for stronger smoothie breakfast positioning
                                                      • Figure 35: Select smoothie consumption occasions, by generation groups, September 2015
                                                    • Hispanics view 100% juice as versatile
                                                      • Figure 36: Select juice, juice drink, smoothie consumption occasions, by Hispanic, September 2015
                                                  • Smoothie Format

                                                    • Single-serving smoothies are most popular
                                                      • Figure 37: Smoothie statements – Format, September 2015
                                                    • Single-serving smoothies may appear as an affordable option
                                                      • Figure 38: Smoothie statements – Format, by household income September 2015
                                                    • Hispanics are more likely than average to drink shelf-stable smoothies
                                                      • Figure 39: Smoothie statements – Format, by Hispanic origin, September 2015
                                                    • Multi-serving smoothies popular for breakfast drinkers
                                                      • Figure 40: Smoothie statements – Format, by consumption occasion, September 2015
                                                  • Opinions toward Juice, Juice Drinks, and Smoothies

                                                    • Juice drinks and shelf-stable smoothies suffer from poor health perceptions
                                                      • Figure 41: Correspondence Analysis – Opinions toward juice, juice drinks and smoothies, September 2015
                                                      • Figure 42: Opinions toward juice, juice drinks and smoothies, September 2015
                                                    • Smoothies should aim at convenience positioning to target Millennials
                                                      • Figure 43: Millennial opinions toward juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, September 2015
                                                  • Smoothie Purchase Location

                                                    • Mass leads retail purchase location
                                                      • Figure 44: Smoothie purchase location, September 2015
                                                    • Millennials less likely to make smoothies at home
                                                      • Figure 45: Smoothie purchase location, by generation group, September 2015
                                                    • Hispanics less likely to purchase smoothies at foodservice
                                                      • Figure 46: Smoothie purchase location, by Hispanic origin, September 2015
                                                    • Breakfast drinkers make smoothies at home; foodservice is for snacking
                                                      • Figure 47: Smoothie purchase location, by consumption occasion, September 2015
                                                  • Ideal Smoothie

                                                    • Strawberries lead smoothie ingredients of interest
                                                      • Figure 48: Ideal smoothie*, September 2015
                                                    • More vegetables show up in Millennial smoothies, but so do indulgent mix-ins
                                                      • Figure 49: Ideal smoothie* - Millennials, September 2015
                                                    • Functional benefits, such as high protein, important among Hispanics
                                                      • Figure 50: Ideal smoothie* - Hispanics, September 2015
                                                    • Interest in function appears among consumers building healthy smoothies
                                                      • Figure 51: Ideal smoothie* - Healthy smoothie, September 2015
                                                    • Fruit of interest even among indulgent smoothie seekers
                                                      • Figure 52: Ideal smoothie* - Indulgent smoothie, September 2015
                                                    • Functionality desired for breakfast smoothies
                                                      • Figure 53: Ideal smoothie* - breakfast smoothie, September 2015
                                                  • Smoothie Innovation of Interest

                                                    • A quarter of smoothie drinkers interested in chunky mix-ins
                                                      • Figure 54: Statements related to smoothies – Innovation of interest, September 2015
                                                    • International flavors may appeal to Millennial smoothie drinkers
                                                      • Figure 55: Statements related to smoothies – Innovation of interest, by generation, September 2015
                                                    • Chunky smoothies appeal for breakfast
                                                      • Figure 56: Statements related to smoothies – Innovation of interest, by consumption occasion, September 2015
                                                  • Custom Consumer Group: Households with Children

                                                    • Parents significantly more likely than average to drink juice drinks and smoothies
                                                      • Figure 57: Juice, juice drink, smoothie consumption, by households with children, September 2015
                                                    • Category may represent convenient health for parents
                                                        • Figure 58: Parent opinions toward juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, September 2015
                                                      • Focus on convenience seen in parental smoothie purchase habits
                                                          • Figure 59: Smoothie purchase location, by households with children, September 2015
                                                        • Vitamin/mineral delivery may appeal to parents
                                                            • Figure 60: Ideal smoothie* -- For giving to a child, September 2015
                                                        • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                          • Data sources
                                                            • Sales data
                                                              • Fan chart forecast
                                                                • Consumer survey data
                                                                  • Consumer qualitative research
                                                                    • Correspondence map methodology
                                                                      • CHAID methodology
                                                                        • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                          • Abbreviations
                                                                          • Appendix – The Market

                                                                              • Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                              • Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                                              • Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of 100% juice, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                              • Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of 100% juice, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                                              • Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice drinks, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                              • Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                                              • Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of smoothies, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                              • Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of smoothies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                                              • Figure 69: Sales of 100% juice, by storage, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                              • Figure 70: Sales of 100% juice, by format, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                              • Figure 71: Sales of juice drinks, by storage, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                              • Figure 72: Sales of juice drinks, by format, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                              • Figure 73: Sales of smoothies, by storage, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                              • Figure 74: US supermarket sales of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at current prices, 2010-15
                                                                              • Figure 75: US convenience store sales of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at current prices, 2010-15
                                                                              • Figure 76: US sales of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15
                                                                              • Figure 77: Household consumption of juice/juice drinks, by type, 2011-2015
                                                                              • Figure 78: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks September 2013-September 2015
                                                                              • Figure 79: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by form, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
                                                                              • Figure 80: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by brand positioning, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
                                                                              • Figure 81: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by packaging, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
                                                                              • Figure 82: Any consumption in the past three months, by drink type, June 2014 and June 2015
                                                                          • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                              • Figure 83: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by type of sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
                                                                              • Figure 84: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by organic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
                                                                              • Figure 85: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by prebiotic and probiotic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
                                                                              • Figure 86: Natural supermarket sales of juice/juice drinks, by flavor, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
                                                                              • Figure 87: sales of juice, juice drinks and smoothies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                                              • Figure 88: Share of 100% juice, juice drink and smoothie launches, by storage type, 2010-15*
                                                                              • Figure 89: Share of smoothie launches, by top 10 claims, 2010-15*
                                                                              • Figure 90: Share of 100% juice launches, by top 10 claims, 2010-15*
                                                                              • Figure 91: Share of juice drink launches, by top 10 claims, 2010-15*
                                                                              • Figure 92: Share of juice drink launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-15*
                                                                              • Figure 93: Share of smoothie launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-15*
                                                                              • Figure 94: Share of 100% juice launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-15*

                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                          To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                          Juice, Juice Drinks and Smoothies - US - November 2015

                                                                          £3,174.67 (Excl.Tax)