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Lager - UK - November 2009

  • Since 2004, lager value sales fell by 11% to reach £11.4bn in 2009. Nevertheless, it remains the largest selling alcohol drink.
  • While the trade defines premium lager as having an ABV (alcohol content) of around 5% and above, only one in ten regular lager drinkers think that stronger lager is better quality.
  • Since 2003, standard lager (usually an ABV of around 4%) has become increasingly popular compared to premium, and now accounts for three out of every five pints drunk.
  • The two biggest selling brands (Carling and Foster’s) are both standard lagers and have benefitted from the popularity of their extra cold draught among younger drinkers. Stella Artois is the third largest brand, despite being market leader in the off-trade.
  • Whether lager is served extra cold is the greatest motivator when choosing between brands, influencing 4m regular lager drinkers/potential drinkers. Second is provenance, with 3m being influenced by whether a lager brand is from a traditional beer making country e.g. Czech Republic.
  • In 2009, twice as many men (32m) drunk lager as women (16m). This is a challenge for the market as in-home drinking is increasingly taking over from pub drinking, meaning a compromise purchase between genders is vital.

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Table of contents

  1. Issues in the Market

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Future Opportunities

            • ‘Mature and full-bodied, with a hint of fruit…’
              • Whatever your mood… or your appetite
                • As stylish as a Cosmo, as suave as champagne?
                  • Stylishly sexy
                    • An ‘It’ beer?
                      • Beer without the beer belly
                        • The healthy lifestyle angle
                        • Market in Brief

                          • A market with problems…
                            • …as well as huge opportunities
                              • The importance of attracting women…
                                • …and a broader demographic in general
                                  • Standard lager is outperforming premium
                                    • A big opportunity for low ABV and low calorie lager
                                    • Internal Market Environment

                                      • Key points
                                        • The population is drinking less alcohol
                                          • Figure 1: Trends in alcohol drinking in Great Britain, 2005-09
                                        • A shift towards in-home consumption
                                          • Figure 2: Trends for in-home and out-of-home alcoholic consumption, 2005-09
                                          • Figure 3: Real prices for off-trade alcoholic drinks compared to all consumer items, (2003-100), 2000-08
                                        • Alcohol consumption increasingly driven by older consumers
                                          • Figure 4: Volume Index Importance (VII)* of alcohol drinkers, by age, 2005-09
                                        • Lager fails to attract women
                                            • Figure 5: Calories contained in typical serves of different alcohol types, 2009
                                          • Pubs are being forced to change
                                            • Figure 6: Trends in visiting a pub/bar for a meal/drink in the last 12 months, 2004-09
                                          • People are drinking stronger content
                                            • Figure 7: Trend for average ABV content of beer and total alcohol*, 1990-2008
                                          • Premium beer is becoming de-valued by supermarket pricing
                                            • Figure 8: Trends in agreement with ‘it is worth paying more for better quality beer’, 2004-09
                                        • Broader Market Environment

                                          • Key points
                                            • Government takes a tougher line
                                              • Figure 9: Duty increase, by alcohol type, 2003-09
                                            • Consumer confidence picking up
                                              • Figure 10: UK Consumer confidence index, January 2008-September 2009
                                              • Figure 11: Relationship between lager penetration, consumer confidence and seasonality, 2007-09
                                            • An ageing population
                                              • Figure 12: Structure of the UK 18+ population, by age, 2004-14
                                            • Population trends favour growth of premium and lower ABV lager
                                              • Figure 13: Changes in UK adult population, by socio-economic group, 2004-14
                                          • Competitive Context

                                            • Key points
                                              • Lager declines in line with market
                                                • Figure 14: Trends in penetration of lager drinkers versus other alcoholic drinks, 2005-09
                                                • Figure 15: Market share in value sales of alcohol market, by alcohol type, 2008
                                              • Lacking the versatility of competitors
                                                • Cider has been better at attracting women
                                                  • Ale leverages local provenance
                                                  • Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market

                                                    • Strengths
                                                      • Weaknesses
                                                      • Who’s Innovating?

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • Alcohol-free lager launches a comeback
                                                            • Female lagers look to gain a foothold in market
                                                              • Strong lager dominates new product development
                                                                • Figure 16: Lager products launched, categorised by ABV, January 2008-September 2009
                                                              • The new premium 4% category
                                                                • The return of the swing top
                                                                  • Extra cold still going strong in on-trade
                                                                    • Targeting the young and adventurous
                                                                    • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                      • Key points
                                                                        • Market will continue to decline
                                                                          • Figure 17: Forecast of volume and value sales of the total lager market, 2004-14
                                                                        • Recession is a catalyst, not a cause
                                                                          • Off-trade to drive majority of sales by 2013
                                                                            • Figure 18: Forecast of volume and value sales of the on-trade lager market, 2004-14
                                                                            • Figure 19: Forecast of volume and value sales of the off-trade lager market, 2004-14
                                                                          • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                          • Segment Performance

                                                                            • Key points
                                                                              • Standard lager replaces premium as main driver of sales
                                                                                • Figure 20: Volume sales of lager, by alcohol strength, 2004-09
                                                                                • Figure 21: Proportion of volume sales of total lager market, by alcohol strength, 1999-2009
                                                                              • Draught lager in long-term decline
                                                                                • Figure 22: Volume sales of lager, packaging, 2004-09
                                                                                • Figure 23: Proportion of volume sales of total lager market, by packaging, 1999-2009
                                                                            • Market Share

                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                • Continued consolidation
                                                                                  • Figure 24: Estimated volume share of lager market, by company, 2008
                                                                                • Standard lager brands are the major winners
                                                                                  • Figure 25: Estimated trends for value share of total lager market, by brands, 2004-08
                                                                                • Eastern promise
                                                                                  • Stella Artois’ off-trade sales benefit from 4% sister brand
                                                                                    • Figure 26: Estimated trends for value share of off-trade lager market, by brands, 2007-09
                                                                                • Companies and Products

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Anheuser-Busch InBev
                                                                                        • Figure 27: AB InBev’s brand portfolio, UK lager market, 2009
                                                                                      • Carlsberg UK
                                                                                        • Figure 28: Carlsberg major brands, UK lager market, 2009
                                                                                      • Molson Coors
                                                                                        • Figure 29: Molson Coors major brands, UK lager market, 2009
                                                                                      • Heineken UK
                                                                                        • Figure 30: Heineken’s major brands, UK lager market, 2009
                                                                                      • Miller Brands UK
                                                                                        • Figure 31: Miller brands’ major brands, UK lager market, 2009
                                                                                      • Wells & Young’s Brewing Company Ltd
                                                                                        • Figure 32: Wells & Young’s major brands, UK lager market, 2009
                                                                                      • Budweiser Budvar
                                                                                        • Figure 33: Budweiser Budvar’s major brands, UK lager market, 2009
                                                                                      • C & C Group PLC
                                                                                      • Channels to Market

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • Decline of pubs has major impact on lager
                                                                                            • Figure 34: UK distribution of lager in the on-trade, 2004-08
                                                                                          • Increased power of the supermarkets creates problems for the market
                                                                                            • Figure 35: UK distribution of lager in the off-trade, 2004-08
                                                                                        • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                            • High ad spend unable to stabilise the market
                                                                                              • Figure 36: Above-the-line advertising spend, compared to volume sales, for the overall lager market, 2005-08
                                                                                            • Are lager brands finally moving away from TV?
                                                                                              • Figure 37: Lager above-the-line advertising spend, by media type, 2007-09*
                                                                                            • Anheuser-Busch InBev dominates above-the-line brand spend
                                                                                              • Figure 38: Top ten lager companies, by advertising spend, 2007-09*
                                                                                              • Figure 39: Top ten lager brands, by spend, 2007-09
                                                                                            • Increased ethical branding, but will it work?
                                                                                              • Lager has a strong festival presence
                                                                                                • A rise in responsible drinking campaigns
                                                                                                  • Figure 40: Overall COI spend on alcohol campaigns, 2006-09
                                                                                              • Brand Elements

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Brand map
                                                                                                        • Figure 41: Attitudes towards and usage of lager brands, April 2009
                                                                                                      • Brand qualities of lager brands
                                                                                                        • Figure 42: Personalities of various lager brands, April 2009
                                                                                                      • Experience of lager brands
                                                                                                        • Carling has most ‘regulars,’ but Stella most popular
                                                                                                          • Figure 43: Consumer usage of various lager brands, April 2009
                                                                                                        • Brand intentions for lager brands
                                                                                                          • Stella has best retention, Hoegaarden and Leffe have potential
                                                                                                            • Figure 44: Consideration of various lager brands, April 2009
                                                                                                          • Brand satisfaction for lager brands
                                                                                                            • Stella, Bud and Kronenbourg most satisfying
                                                                                                              • Figure 45: Satisfaction with various lager brands, April 2009
                                                                                                            • Brand commitment to lager brands
                                                                                                              • Stella top for loyalty, Foster’s divides opinion
                                                                                                                • Figure 46: Commitment to various lager brands, April 2009
                                                                                                              • Foster’s
                                                                                                                • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                  • Figure 47: Attitudes towards the Foster’s brand, April 2009
                                                                                                                • Heineken
                                                                                                                  • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                    • Figure 48: Attitudes towards the Heineken brand, April 2009
                                                                                                                  • Hoegaarden
                                                                                                                    • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                      • Figure 49: Attitudes towards the Hoegaarden brand, April 2009
                                                                                                                    • Carling
                                                                                                                      • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                        • Figure 50: Attitudes towards the Carling brand, April 2009
                                                                                                                      • Stella Artois
                                                                                                                        • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                          • Figure 51: Attitudes towards the Stella Artois brand, April 2009
                                                                                                                      • Consumer Usage

                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                          • Lager remains very much a man’s drink
                                                                                                                            • Consumption falls dramatically among over-35s
                                                                                                                                • Figure 52: Volume importance index* of drinking lager (canned, bottled and draught), 2005-09
                                                                                                                              • 25-34s move away from draught lager
                                                                                                                                • Figure 53: Volume importance index* for lager users, by age group, 2009
                                                                                                                            • Consumer Motivations for Purchasing

                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                • A hierarchy of lager needs
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 54: Factors which influence lager drinkers/potential drinkers to buy a specific brand of lager, August 2009
                                                                                                                                  • Extra cold is the key motivator
                                                                                                                                    • What women want
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 55: Factors influencing purchase of lager brands, by gender, August 2009
                                                                                                                                    • Can provenance mean British as well as continental?
                                                                                                                                      • Older consumers more concerned with provenance
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 56: Factors influencing purchase of lager brands, by 18-34s and 35+ age groups, August 2009
                                                                                                                                        • Food for thought
                                                                                                                                        • Consumer Attitudes to ABV

                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                            • Consumers do not link higher ABV with higher quality
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 57: Effect of alcohol strength on lager drinking, August 2009
                                                                                                                                              • Attraction of 4% lager is in the taste, not health concerns
                                                                                                                                                • The timings look right for low-alcohol lager launches
                                                                                                                                                • Targeting Consumers Attitudinally

                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 58: Attitudinal groups for lager, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                    • Traditionalists
                                                                                                                                                      • The new wave
                                                                                                                                                        • Ice Cool
                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix

                                                                                                                                                          • Consumer research
                                                                                                                                                            • ACORN
                                                                                                                                                              • Advertising data
                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Broader Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 59: Trends in PDI and consumer expenditure, 2004-14
                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Brand Communication

                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 60: Top ten lager companies, by spend, 2007-09*
                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Consumer Usage

                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 61: Alcoholic drink types drunk in past year, by demographics, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 62: Frequency of drinking lager, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Motivations for Purchasing

                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 63: factors influencing purchasing of a specific lager brand, by demographics, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 64: factors influencing purchasing of a specific lager brand, by demographics, August 2009 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Consumer Attitudes to ABV

                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 65: Affect of alcohol strength on lager drinking, by demgoraphics, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 66: Affect of alcohol strength on lager drinking, by demgoraphics, August 2009 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Targeting Consumers Attitudinally

                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 67: Factors influence to buy a specific brand of lager, by target groups, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 68: Target groups, by demographics, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 69: Statements on lager drinking habits, by target groups, August 2009

                                                                                                                                                              Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                              • Advertising Standards Authority
                                                                                                                                                              • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                              • Asia Pacific Breweries Ltd
                                                                                                                                                              • Baltic Beverages Holding
                                                                                                                                                              • British Beer and Pub Association
                                                                                                                                                              • British Market Research Bureau (BMRB)
                                                                                                                                                              • C&C Group plc
                                                                                                                                                              • CACI Limited
                                                                                                                                                              • Carlsberg UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                              • Cobra Beer
                                                                                                                                                              • Coors Brewers Ltd (UK)
                                                                                                                                                              • Daily Express
                                                                                                                                                              • Daily Mail
                                                                                                                                                              • Daily Star (The)
                                                                                                                                                              • Diageo UK
                                                                                                                                                              • Different World Drinks Company
                                                                                                                                                              • Gfk NOP
                                                                                                                                                              • Guinness
                                                                                                                                                              • InBev
                                                                                                                                                              • Interbrew UK
                                                                                                                                                              • J. Sainsbury
                                                                                                                                                              • JD Wetherspoon
                                                                                                                                                              • Kellogg Company of GB Limited
                                                                                                                                                              • Miller Brands (UK) Ltd
                                                                                                                                                              • Molson Coors Brewing Company
                                                                                                                                                              • Office for National Statistics
                                                                                                                                                              • Outdoor Advertising Association of Great Britain
                                                                                                                                                              • Scottish & Newcastle Plc
                                                                                                                                                              • Somerfield
                                                                                                                                                              • Stella McCartney
                                                                                                                                                              • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                              • The Sun
                                                                                                                                                              • Tsingtao Brewery
                                                                                                                                                              • Union of European Football Association (UEFA)
                                                                                                                                                              • Wagamama Ltd
                                                                                                                                                              • Waitrose
                                                                                                                                                              • Weight Watchers Ltd. (UK)
                                                                                                                                                              • Wells & Young's Brewing Company Ltd
                                                                                                                                                              • Wm Morrison Supermarkets

                                                                                                                                                              Lager - UK - November 2009

                                                                                                                                                              £1,995.00 (Excl.Tax)