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Long-haul Holidays - Is the World Shrinking? - UK - March 2009

The overseas holiday market has enjoyed a decade of sustained growth, but under the impact of recession the number of trips is now expected to decline by around 2% in 2009. In fact, whilst the value of the whole market has grown by 24% over the past five years, almost all of the volume growth has actually occurred in trips beyond the original EU 15 destinations.

Rising living standards have been the bedrock for a growing desire amongst savvy short-haul travellers to spread their wings and explore new cultures in a globalised world where, for some consumers, popular holiday expectations have shifted from Margate to Marbella to the Maldives in the space of three generations.

This report provides an overview of the market for long-haul holidays abroad, investigating the core market factors, strengths and weaknesses, consumer dynamics, and likely future trends.

Key issues

  • Which holiday destinations show the fastest rates of growth? Have certain destinations already benefited from the change in economic climate? Which will benefit in the short and long term?

  • What impact will recession have on the consumer wanderlust and experimentation of recent years? What are the long-term prospects for holidays outside of Europe?

  • Is Europe becoming prohibitively expensive as a destination? Will this benefit long-haul travel despite higher transport costs? Do people look for cheap flights above all else?

  • Can the long-haul, low-cost airline business model ever be truly sustainable?

  • Do opinions regarding long-haul vs short-haul and the cost/convenience of flying change with age? Does having children put people off long haul?

  • What kinds of innovation are we seeing in the long-haul market in terms of destination and holiday type?

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Table of contents

  1. Issues in the Market

      • Key issues
        • Definitions
          • Abbreviations
          • Future Opportunities

            • Reborn in the USA
              • Shrinking world, part one
                • Shrinking world, part two
                • Market in Brief

                  • The far near
                    • Mexican wave
                      • Flight to value
                        • Cheap as chips
                          • Tried and trusted
                            • Price pressures
                              • Holiday one-upmanship
                              • Internal Market Environment

                                • Key points
                                  • Travel recession
                                    • Figure 1: Domestic and overseas holiday volumes, 2003-13
                                  • Aldi effect
                                    • Figure 2: Domestic and overseas holiday expenditure at current values, 2003-13
                                  • New Europe bucks the trends
                                    • Figure 3: Overseas holidays, by region, 2003-08
                                  • Turkey gobbles up Greece
                                    • Figure 4: Top 20 holiday destinations, by estimated number of visits, 2003-08
                                  • Portugal & Poland power ahead
                                    • Budget short-haul
                                      • Figure 5: Scheduled passengers carried, by main low-cost airlines, 2003-08
                                    • Budget long-haul
                                      • Question marks
                                        • APD changes
                                        • Broader Market Environment

                                          • Key points
                                            • Dark days
                                              • Figure 6: GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Index, Jan 2008-Dec 2008
                                              • Figure 7: Trends in personal disposable income and consumer expenditure, 2003-13
                                            • Uncertain oil
                                              • Figure 8: Crude oil prices, 2003-09
                                            • AB growth good for long-haul
                                              • Figure 9: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2003-13
                                            • Age of long-haul travel
                                              • Figure 10: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, by gender, 2003-13
                                            • Euro woes
                                              • Figure 11: Sterling exchange rates against selected currencies at 31 March each year, 2005-08
                                            • Complex picture
                                            • Competitive Context

                                              • Key point
                                                • Figure 12: Long-haul vs short-haul holiday volume and expenditure, at current prices, 2003-08
                                              • Out-performance
                                              • Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market

                                                  • Strengths
                                                    • Weaknesses
                                                    • Who’s Innovating?

                                                      • Key points
                                                        • Next generation aircraft
                                                          • Low-cost long-haul
                                                            • Life in Dubailand
                                                              • Coming in from the cold
                                                                • From backpack to flashpack
                                                                  • Down Mexico way
                                                                    • South Seas come to Spain
                                                                    • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                      • Key points
                                                                        • Figure 13: Long-haul holidays and expenditure, at current and constant prices, 2003-13
                                                                      • Past and present
                                                                        • Future
                                                                          • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                          • Segment Performance

                                                                            • Key points
                                                                              • Rise of the far near
                                                                                • Figure 14: Overseas holidays, by region, 2003-08
                                                                              • US share plummets
                                                                                • Figure 15: Top 10 long-haul holiday destinations, by estimated number of visits, 2003-08
                                                                              • Incredible India
                                                                                • Bargain on the Baht
                                                                                  • The long tail gets shorter
                                                                                    • Go further stay longer
                                                                                      • Figure 16: Nights spent on last holiday, by region, 2008
                                                                                    • Year-round business
                                                                                      • Figure 17: Month last holiday booked, by region, 2008
                                                                                    • Advance planning
                                                                                      • Figure 18: How far in advance last holiday was booked, by region, 2008
                                                                                    • Big spenders
                                                                                      • Figure 19: Cost of last holiday, by region, 2008
                                                                                  • Companies and Products

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • TUI Travel plc
                                                                                          • Figure 20: Key TUI adventure travel holiday brands operating in the UK market, January 2009
                                                                                        • Black Tomato
                                                                                          • Kuoni
                                                                                            • AirAsia X
                                                                                            • Distribution

                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                • Rise of DIY
                                                                                                  • Figure 21: Method used to book last holiday to Europe, 2002-08
                                                                                                • Long-haul warning bell
                                                                                                  • Figure 22: Method used to book last holiday overseas outside Europe, 2002-08
                                                                                              • Overseas Leisure Travel – Who Goes Where?

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • Figure 23: Overseas leisure travel in last 12 months, December 2008
                                                                                                • Mid-haul potential
                                                                                                • Overseas Leisure Travel – How Often and for How Long

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Figure 24: Frequency and length of overseas leisure stays in last 12 months, December 2008
                                                                                                  • Young professionals mix and match
                                                                                                    • But third agers go for longer…
                                                                                                    • Attitudes Towards Overseas Leisure Travel

                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                          • Figure 25: Attitudes towards overseas leisure travel, December 2008
                                                                                                        • Cheapskates are younger
                                                                                                          • Value-conscious families
                                                                                                            • Expensive Europe
                                                                                                              • Euro-jadedness
                                                                                                              • Targeting Opportunities – Is the World Shrinking?

                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                    • Figure 26: Is the world shrinking target groups, December 2008
                                                                                                                    • Figure 27: Target group differentiation on key statements, December 2008
                                                                                                                  • All about price
                                                                                                                    • Comfort not (flying) cost
                                                                                                                      • Savvy globetrotters
                                                                                                                        • Reluctant travellers
                                                                                                                          • Figure 28: Target groups, by attitudinal statements, December 2008
                                                                                                                        • All about price are the most euro-centric
                                                                                                                          • Figure 29: Target groups, by leisure holiday destinations over past 12 months, December 2008
                                                                                                                        • Savvy globe trotters the most prolific travellers
                                                                                                                          • Figure 30: Target groups, by length of leisure travel over the last 12 months, December 2008
                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Overseas Leisure Travel

                                                                                                                          • Figure 31: Overseas leisure travel in last 12 months, by detailed demographics, December 2008
                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Overseas Leisure Travel – How Often and for How Long

                                                                                                                          • Figure 32: Frequency and length of overseas leisure stays in last 12 months, by detailed demographics, December 2008
                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Attitudes Towards Overseas Leisure Travel

                                                                                                                          • Figure 33: Most popular attitudes towards overseas leisure travel, by detailed demographics, December 2008
                                                                                                                          • Figure 34: Least popular attitudes towards overseas leisure travel, by detailed demographics, December 2008
                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Targeting Opportunities

                                                                                                                          • Figure 35: Attitudinal groups, by detailed demographics, December 2008

                                                                                                                      Companies Covered

                                                                                                                      • Adventure Company (The)
                                                                                                                      • Aer Lingus Group Plc
                                                                                                                      • AirAsia
                                                                                                                      • Aldi Stores Ltd (UK & Ireland)
                                                                                                                      • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                      • Association of British Travel Agents (The)
                                                                                                                      • Bloomberg L.P.
                                                                                                                      • British Market Research Bureau (BMRB)
                                                                                                                      • Civil Aviation Authority
                                                                                                                      • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                      • Cox and Kings
                                                                                                                      • Daily Express
                                                                                                                      • Daily Mail
                                                                                                                      • Daily Mirror (The)
                                                                                                                      • easyJet Airline Company Limited
                                                                                                                      • First Choice Holidays & Flights Ltd
                                                                                                                      • Gfk NOP
                                                                                                                      • Giorgio Armani S.p.A.
                                                                                                                      • Government Actuary's Department (GAD)
                                                                                                                      • Hayes & Jarvis (Travel) Ltd
                                                                                                                      • J. Sainsbury
                                                                                                                      • Kirker Travel Ltd
                                                                                                                      • Lidl (UK)
                                                                                                                      • M&C Saatchi Worldwide Ltd
                                                                                                                      • Marks & Spencer
                                                                                                                      • Office for National Statistics
                                                                                                                      • Ryanair Holdings plc
                                                                                                                      • Safeway Stores
                                                                                                                      • Somerfield
                                                                                                                      • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                      • Thomson Holidays
                                                                                                                      • Thomsonfly
                                                                                                                      • Trek America
                                                                                                                      • TUI Travel PLC
                                                                                                                      • Virgin Atlantic Airways Limited
                                                                                                                      • Virgin Holidays
                                                                                                                      • Voyages Jules Verne
                                                                                                                      • Waitrose
                                                                                                                      • Waymark Holidays Ltd.
                                                                                                                      • World Tourism Organisation
                                                                                                                      • Zoom Airlines Ltd

                                                                                                                      Long-haul Holidays - Is the World Shrinking? - UK - March 2009

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