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Long-haul Holidays - UK - September 2016

“Despite a rise in volume in 2015, long-haul destinations lost market share to short-haul destinations. In 2016, long-haul faces even stiffer competition from short-haul. Following the Brexit result and the resultant drop in value of the Pound, many consumers will opt for relatively cheaper destinations within Europe. However, oil is still cheap and this means that airlines can pass on fuel savings to customers in order to stimulate bookings.”
– Fergal McGivney, Travel Analyst

This report examines the following issues:

  • The importance of seniors following the Brexit result
  • Flexible payment options can help stimulate long-haul bookings

This Report examines the habits and attitudes of British holidaymakers concerning long-haul holidays. Long-haul refers to all holidays outside Europe, including holidays involving cruises. A holiday must constitute at least one overnight stay. The business travel market is not reviewed in this Report.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Scope of the report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Strong growth in 2015 but a dip forecast in 2016
              • Figure 1: Forecast volume of long-haul holidays taken by UK residents, 2011-21
              • Figure 2: Forecast value of long-haul holidays taken by UK residents, 2011-21
            • The consumer
              • Proportion of consumers taking long-haul holidays falls
                • Figure 3: Long-haul holidays taken in the past five years, June 2015 versus July 2016
              • Growth in visits to North America but challenges lie ahead
                • Figure 4: Long-haul holiday destinations visited in the last five years, July 2016
              • Expert advice is important when travelling long-haul
                • Figure 5: Long-haul holiday attitudes, July 2016
              • What we think
              • Issues and Insights

                • The importance of seniors following the Brexit result
                  • The facts
                    • The implications
                      • Flexible payment options can help stimulate long-haul bookings
                        • The facts
                          • The implications
                          • The Market – What You Need to Know

                            • Long-haul trips grew in 2015, but 2016 will be a tough year
                              • Growth over the next five years could be curbed by Brexit
                                • Short-haul holidays are growing at a faster rate than long-haul trips
                                  • Holidays in US, the Caribbean and Mexico grow in 2015
                                  • Market Size and Forecast

                                    • Steady growth in 2015 followed by a likely dip in 2016
                                        • Figure 6: Forecast volume and value of long-haul holidays taken by UK residents, 2011-21
                                        • Figure 7: Forecast volume of long-haul holidays taken by UK residents, 2011-21
                                        • Figure 8: Forecast value of long-haul holidays taken by UK residents, 2011-21
                                      • Forecast methodology
                                      • Market Segmentation

                                        • Short-haul holidays growing at a faster rate
                                          • Figure 9: Long-haul versus short-haul holidays, by volume, 2010-15
                                          • Figure 10: Long-haul versus short-haul holidays, by volume, Q1 2015 versus Q1 2016
                                        • Independent bookings on the rise but there is still a place for packages
                                          • Figure 11: Independent vs. non-independent long-haul holidays, by volume, 2010-15
                                          • Figure 12: Independent vs non-independent long-haul holidays, by volume, H1 2015 versus H1 2016
                                        • Nine in ten long-haul trips taken by air
                                          • Figure 13: Long-haul holiday trips taken, by transport type, 2010-15
                                        • US, the Caribbean and Mexico see strong growth
                                          • Figure 14: Top 10 long-haul holiday destinations, by volume 2014-15
                                      • Market Drivers

                                        • Brexit result; consumer caution and possible regulation changes
                                          • A weak Pound is making holidays more expensive
                                            • Figure 15: Average weekly rates for Pound versus selected currencies, post-brexit, 2016
                                          • Post Office World Wide Cost Barometer reveals cheapest destinations
                                            • Figure 16: Post Office Worldwide Cost Barometer 2016
                                          • Low oil prices allowing airlines to keep fares low
                                            • Figure 17: Weekly Europe Brent Spot (Dollars per Barrel), September 2011 to September 2016
                                          • Decision delayed for expanding Heathrow
                                            • APD cuts benefit long-haul trips
                                              • Figure 18: Air Passenger Duty (APD) rates, April 2012-April 2016*
                                            • Some long-haul tour operators are now charging more for trips
                                            • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                                              • Amadeus partners with VE Interactive to solve customer abandonment
                                                • Etihad Airways develops new mobile app
                                                  • Bidding for upgrades on airlines could soon be the norm
                                                    • Ryanair to offer feeder service to long-haul carriers
                                                      • New long-haul routes for Thomas Cook Airlines
                                                        • New app allows passengers to sell their luggage space
                                                        • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                          • Thomas Cook Airlines introduces new routes for summer 2017
                                                            • Ryanair in talks to offer feeder service to long-haul carriers
                                                              • Amadeus to tackle customer abandonment in the booking process
                                                                • Etihad Airways releases new iPhone app
                                                                  • Real-time on-board seat auctions in the pipeline
                                                                    • Extra luggage allowance for hire
                                                                    • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                      • Proportion of consumers taking long-haul trips falls
                                                                        • North America is the most popular long-haul destination
                                                                          • Beach holidays are the most popular long-haul holiday types
                                                                            • Consumers willing to spend on accommodation
                                                                              • Flexible payment options can help younger consumers book more long-haul trips
                                                                              • Long-haul Holiday Taking

                                                                                • Proportion of consumers taking long-haul holidays reduces
                                                                                  • Figure 19: Long-haul holidays taken in the past five years, June 2015 versus July 2016
                                                                                • Which groups have reduced long-haul trips?
                                                                                  • Figure 20: Long-haul holidays taken in the past five years, by age, June 2015 versus July 2016
                                                                                  • Figure 21: Long-haul holidays taken in the past five years, by socio-economic group, June 2015 versus July 2016
                                                                              • Long-haul Destinations

                                                                                • Trips to North American destinations on the increase
                                                                                  • Figure 22: Long-haul holiday destinations visited in the last five years, July 2016
                                                                                  • Figure 23: Spot exchange rate for British Pound against the US and Canadian Dollars, June 2015 to September 2016
                                                                                • Visits to Mexico and the Caribbean grow
                                                                                    • Figure 24: Holiday visits to Mexico and the Caribbean, by Volume 2014-15
                                                                                  • The Caribbean and affluent holidaymakers
                                                                                    • Holidays to South Africa increase but older consumers not so keen
                                                                                    • High Frequency Long-haul Holidaymakers

                                                                                      • 15% of long-haulers are high-frequency holidaymakers
                                                                                        • Figure 25: Long-haul holiday destinations visited in the last five years, July 2016
                                                                                        • Figure 26: Long-haul holiday destinations visited in the last five years, by repertoire of destinations visited, July 2016
                                                                                    • Long-haul Holiday Types

                                                                                      • Beach holidays and city breaks dominate long-haul
                                                                                        • Figure 27: Types of holiday taken in the last five years, July 2016
                                                                                      • Cruises skewed towards over-65s and rural dwellers
                                                                                        • Figure 28: How respondents would describe their financial situation, by age, June 2016
                                                                                        • Figure 29: Consumers’ financial outlook for the coming year, by age, June 2016
                                                                                      • One in ten consumers have been on four or more holiday types
                                                                                        • Figure 30: Types of holiday taken in the last five years, July 2016
                                                                                        • Figure 31: Types of holiday taken in the last five years, by age, July 2016
                                                                                    • Long-haul Transport Methods

                                                                                      • Full-service airlines have competition but budget carriers face a tough task
                                                                                          • Figure 32: Transport method for last long-haul holiday, July 2016
                                                                                        • Cruisers keen on the Caribbean
                                                                                        • Long-haul Accommodation

                                                                                          • Most long-haul travellers splash out on accommodation
                                                                                            • Figure 33: Accommodation used for last long-haul holiday, July 2016
                                                                                          • Distinct differences between older and younger consumers
                                                                                            • Figure 34: Accommodation used for last long-haul holiday, by age, July 2016
                                                                                        • Long-haul Holiday Attitudes

                                                                                          • Expert advice is important for long-haul travellers
                                                                                            • Figure 35: Long-haul holiday attitudes I, July 2016
                                                                                          • Paying for long-haul trips in instalments
                                                                                              • Figure 36: Long-haul holiday attitudes II, July 2016
                                                                                          • Services on a Long-haul Flight

                                                                                            • Premium economy seating most popular long-haul flight service
                                                                                              • Younger travellers willing to pay for on-board food and drink
                                                                                                  • Figure 37: Services willing to pay for on a long-haul flight, July 2016
                                                                                              • CHAID Analysis – Long-haul Holidays

                                                                                                • Methodology
                                                                                                  • Unfussy younger consumers are willing pay for food and drink on a long-haul flight
                                                                                                    • Figure 38: Target group most willing to pay for services on a long-haul flight – CHAID – Tree output, July 2016
                                                                                                    • Figure 39: Target group most willing to pay for services on a long-haul flight – CHAID – Table output, July 2016
                                                                                                • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                    • Abbreviations
                                                                                                    • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                      • Forecast methodology
                                                                                                          • Figure 40: Best- and worst-case forecast for long-haul volume, 2016-21
                                                                                                          • Figure 41: Best- and worst-case forecast for long-haul volume, 2016-21

                                                                                                      Companies Covered

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                                                                                                      Long-haul Holidays - UK - September 2016

                                                                                                      £1,995.00 (Excl.Tax)