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Lotteries - UK - February 2016

“Recent changes to Lotto pricing and formats look positive for market value growth, but operators are still trailing all other gambling sectors online. Instant wins could get them back in the game.”
– David Walmsley, Senior Leisure Analyst

This report answers the following questions:

  • Have new Lotto formats changed the game?
  • How can lotteries be a bigger draw for the young?
  • Are lotteries losing out online?

The UK lottery market returned to growth in 2014/15 thanks to the first full year of the £2 Lotto ticket, a continuing boom in scratchcard sales and positive trends in the society sector.

Where value and volume trends head next will depend on consumer reaction to Lotto changes that lengthen jackpot odds but deliver larger rollovers and create more millionaires more often – but the initial impression is positive for regular and occasional players alike.

The ongoing challenge for operators in all segments is to grow the participation base among younger people and online, with Instant Win Games (IWGs) and mobile platforms potentially best placed to achieve that.

This report covers all the products offered by the National Lottery, the Health Lottery and other society, charity and local lotteries.

Only the National Lottery and lotteries regulated by the Gambling Commission fall within the scope of this report, although other lottery-type games are considered where they impact directly on the market.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Covered in this report
      • Executive Summary

          • Lotto changes look good for growth
            • Figure 1: UK lottery sales, 2010/11-2020/21
          • Scratchcards at home in culture of instant wins
            • Figure 2: National Lottery sales, by segment, 2010/11-2014/15
          • Expanding society sector trims National Lottery’s lead
            • Figure 3: UK lottery sales, by operator share, 2010/11-2014/15
          • Innovation steps up to stem participation decline
            • Figure 4: Participation in lottery games, November 2015
          • Younger players exhibit commitment issues
            • Figure 5: Participation in lottery games on a monthly or more frequent basis, November 2015
          • Corner shops give way to supermarkets
            • Figure 6: Methods of purchasing lottery products, November 2015
          • Impulse play getting stronger
            • Figure 7: Lottery game purchasing habits, November 2016
          • Winners dream of saving big
            • Figure 8: Top spending priority after a £10,000 lottery game win, November 2016
          • What we think
          • Issues and Insights

            • Have new Lotto formats changed the game?
              • The facts
                • The implications
                  • How can lotteries be a bigger draw for the young?
                    • The facts
                      • The implications
                        • Are lotteries losing out online?
                          • The facts
                            • The implications
                            • The Market – What You Need to Know

                              • New Lotto format looks positive for growth
                                • Instant-win culture keeps scratchcard sales booming
                                  • Lottery demographics keep retail dominant
                                    • Numbers betting an ongoing threat
                                    • Market Size and Forecast

                                      • Market enjoys ticket price rise
                                        • Figure 9: UK lottery sales, 2010/11-2020/21
                                      • Forecast
                                        • Figure 10: Forecast of UK lottery sales, 2010/11-2020/21
                                    • Segment Performance

                                      • Instant wins remain the long-term success story
                                          • Figure 11: National Lottery sales, by segment, 2010/11-2014/15
                                      • Market Drivers

                                        • Lottery still at gambling’s softer edge
                                          • Figure 12: Participation in gambling activities, by participation in other gambling activities, March 2015
                                        • Longer odds at the top, better chances at the bottom
                                            • Figure 13: National Lottery Lotto draw sales (Saturday and Wednesday combined), by value and volume, 2011-15
                                          • Instant wins set pace for growth online
                                              • Figure 14: National Lottery sales, by channel, 2010/11-2014/15
                                            • Numbers betting business sees a dip
                                              • Figure 15: Numbers betting market, 2010/11-2014/15
                                            • Regulatory change on the cards
                                              • Cultivating the culture of instant win
                                                  • Figure 16: Sales of National Lottery scratchcards and IWGs online, 2010/11-2014/15
                                              • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                                                • Leader’s share slips in face of society growth
                                                  • People’s Postcode Lottery challenges for second spot
                                                    • Lotto changes offer two chances for growth
                                                      • Cutting prices fails to offer a shortcut to success
                                                        • Leading players take differing promotional routes
                                                        • Market Share

                                                          • Market structure
                                                            • Rapid growth carves societies a bigger niche
                                                              • Figure 17: UK lottery sales, by operator share, 2010/11-2014/15
                                                          • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                            • New Lotto format fights on two fronts
                                                              • Low-cost lottery cuts its losses
                                                                • Camelot moves to shift retail players online
                                                                  • Faster payments a smarter option for mobile play
                                                                    • Scratchcards spread along the high street
                                                                      • Brand focus moves towards good-cause contributions
                                                                      • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                        • Major players step up promotional push
                                                                          • Figure 18: UK lottery operators’ main monitored media advertising spend, 2013-15
                                                                        • National games turn to TV, local schemes keep personal touch
                                                                            • Figure 19: UK lottery operators’ main monitored media advertising spend, by media type, 2013-15
                                                                        • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                          • Participation rates stuck on downward path
                                                                            • Those who stay are happy to commit
                                                                              • Supermarkets top of the lottery shopping list
                                                                                • Impulse play appeals to the young
                                                                                  • Winners ready to save as much as spend
                                                                                  • Lottery Games Played

                                                                                    • Lotto price rises, participation rates fall...
                                                                                      • Figure 20: Participation in lottery games, November 2015
                                                                                    • ...but new format can drive up occasional play
                                                                                      • Figure 21: Participation in selected National Lottery games, 2013-15
                                                                                    • Instant wins – Have younger players scratched that itch?
                                                                                      • Figure 22: Participation in National Lottery scratchcard games, by age, 2013-15
                                                                                  • Frequency of Lottery Play

                                                                                    • Lottery play a frequent habit
                                                                                      • Figure 23: Participation in lottery games on a monthly or more frequent basis, November 2015
                                                                                    • Subscriptions offer a shortcut to giving
                                                                                      • Figure 24: Participation in lottery games on a monthly or more frequent basis, by age, November 2015
                                                                                  • Lottery Purchasing Patterns

                                                                                    • Supermarkets sweep past corner shops
                                                                                      • Figure 25: Methods of purchasing lottery products, November 2015
                                                                                    • Mobile fails to dent retail preferences
                                                                                        • Figure 26: Repertoire of locations lottery products purchased from, November 2015
                                                                                    • Lottery Purchasing Habits

                                                                                      • New technologies to regularise the impulsive
                                                                                          • Figure 27: Lottery game purchasing habits, November 2016
                                                                                        • Spreading scratchcard impulse beyond the store
                                                                                            • Figure 28: Lottery games played, by purchasing habits, November 2015
                                                                                          • Digital shopping can put lotteries on the list
                                                                                            • Figure 29: Purchasing lottery products in supermarkets, by lottery game purchasing habits, November 2015
                                                                                        • Lottery Prize Spending Preferences

                                                                                          • Spend, spend, spend? Save, save, save actually
                                                                                              • Figure 30: Top spending priority after a £10,000 lottery game win, November 2016
                                                                                            • Holidays for the impulsive, savings for regulars
                                                                                              • Figure 31: Purchasing of National Lottery scratchcards, by top spending priority after a £10,000 lottery game win, November 2015
                                                                                          • Appendix

                                                                                            • Data sources
                                                                                              • Abbreviations
                                                                                                • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                                    • Figure 32: Forecast of UK lottery sales, 2015/16-2020/21

                                                                                                Companies Covered

                                                                                                To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                Lotteries - UK - February 2016

                                                                                                US $2,672.70 (Excl.Tax)