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Lotteries - UK - March 2014

“The biggest issue facing the lottery industry over the last 12 months has been the impact of the £2 Lotto ticket. Unfavourable economic conditions surrounding its launch mean a true picture will take time to emerge but initial indications are that while around half of players have reassessed their habits, only a small number have stopped spending altogether.”

– David Walmsley, Senior Leisure Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • What has been the impact of the £2 Lotto ticket on playing habits?
  • How can lotteries increase levels of online play and maintain scratchcard growth?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Figure 1: Forecast of consumer expenditure on lotteries, 2008/09-2018/19
            • Scratchcards and EuroMillions the twin engines of market growth
              • Figure 2: Segmentation of UK lottery sales, by segment, 2012/13
            • Market drivers
              • Lotto trades volume for value in doubling up on price
                • Retail networks remain key to access
                  • Companies, brands and innovation
                    • Challenger brands expand range and reach
                      • The consumer
                        • Fewer players at £2 prices
                          • Figure 3: Participation in lottery games, January 2013 and January 2014
                        • Lotto players split down the middle
                          • Figure 4: Frequency of purchasing National Lottery Lotto draw tickets following their increase in price to £2, January 2014
                        • Most eyes still on the prize
                          • Figure 5: Incentives to lottery draw play, January 2014
                        • What we think
                        • Issues and Insights

                            • What has been the impact of the £2 Lotto ticket on playing habits?
                              • The facts
                                • The implications
                                  • How can lotteries increase levels of online play and maintain scratchcard growth?
                                    • The facts
                                      • The implications
                                      • Trend Application

                                          • Trend: Play Ethic
                                            • Trend: Make It Mine
                                              • Trend: Brand Intervention
                                              • Market Drivers

                                                • Key points
                                                  • Lotto doubles up on prices...
                                                    • Figure 6: Stakes, prizes and odds of winning selected UK lottery draw games, January 2014
                                                  • ...with value gains outweighing volume losses
                                                    • Figure 7: Weekly sales of Saturday UK Lotto Draw (£m), August-December 2013
                                                  • Retail readied to spotlight scratchcards
                                                    • Figure 8: National and Health Lottery retail networks, 2014
                                                  • Government still consulting on consultation
                                                    • Figure 9: Lottery returns to good causes, 2012/13
                                                  • Numbers betting begins to add up
                                                    • Figure 10: Numbers betting turnover, 2008/09-2012/13
                                                  • Lottery participation slow to go online – but no slower than most
                                                    • Figure 11: Online participation in selected gambling activities, September 2012
                                                  • Recovery still fragile for lotteries sector
                                                    • Figure 12: GfK NOP consumer confidence Index, January 1988-2013
                                                  • National Lottery a male winner – but women lead elsewhere
                                                    • Figure 13: Past-year participation in lottery games, by gender and age, 2012
                                                  • Squeezed middle a shrinking target
                                                    • Figure 14: Participation in lottery games, by household income, January 2014
                                                • Who’s Innovating?

                                                  • Key points
                                                    • Lottery apps to make playing more social?
                                                      • Variety spices lottery life
                                                        • Health Lottery Plus plays numbers game
                                                          • Travel agents pitch payment holiday
                                                            • Tickets roll over as well as prizes
                                                              • Lottery marketing starts getting personal
                                                              • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                • Key points
                                                                  • Numbers come up for lottery sales
                                                                    • Figure 15: UK lottery sales, 2008/09-2018/19
                                                                  • Forecast
                                                                    • Figure 16: Forecast of consumer expenditure on lotteries, 2008/09-2018/19
                                                                  • Forecast methodology
                                                                  • Market Share and Segmentation

                                                                    • Key points
                                                                      • Society sector continues to grow
                                                                        • Figure 17: Operator shares of UK lottery sales, 2008/09-2012/13
                                                                      • Scratchcards carve out a bigger market niche
                                                                        • Figure 18: National Lottery sales, by sector, 2008/09-2012/13
                                                                      • New Lotto pricing to claw back value losses
                                                                        • Figure 19: Sales of draw-based National Lottery games, by game, 2008/09-2012/13
                                                                    • Companies and Products

                                                                      • Key points
                                                                        • Camelot commands the market’s heights
                                                                          • Camelot Lotteries UK Limited
                                                                              • Figure 20: Camelot financial performance, 2008/09-2012/13
                                                                              • Figure 21: Camelot advertising expenditure, by channel, 2009-13
                                                                            • Health Lottery ELM Limited
                                                                                • Figure 22: Health Lottery ELM Limited financial performance, 2011 and 2012
                                                                                • Figure 23: Health Lottery advertising expenditure, by channel, 2011-13
                                                                              • Postcode Lottery Limited
                                                                                  • Figure 24: People’s Postcode Lottery financial performance, 2011 and 2012
                                                                                  • Figure 25: Postcode Lottery advertising expenditure, by channel, 2009-13
                                                                              • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                  • Leading operators choose different channels
                                                                                    • Figure 26: Trends in lotteries’ main media advertising expenditure, by channel, 2009-13
                                                                                  • Personalisation the next destination?
                                                                                  • The Consumer – Lottery Game Play

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • Decline in £2 play led by more than just price?
                                                                                        • Figure 27: Participation in lottery games, January 2013 and January 2014
                                                                                      • Hardest-pressed giving up on Lotto dream
                                                                                        • Figure 28: Participation in National Lottery Lotto, by socio-economic group, January 2013 and January 2014
                                                                                      • Younger players expect instant results
                                                                                        • Figure 29: Participation in National Lottery scratchcard games, by age, January 2013 and January 2014
                                                                                      • Lotto and EuroMillions make it a two-horse race
                                                                                        • Figure 30: Lottery games played, January 2014
                                                                                    • The Consumer – Lotto Ticket Buying

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • Half of players cut back on tickets
                                                                                            • Figure 31: Purchasing of National Lottery Lotto draw tickets following their increase in price to £2, January 2014
                                                                                          • Jackpots and habits keep Lotto players playing
                                                                                            • Figure 32: Incentives to lottery draw play, by purchasing of National Lottery Lotto draw tickets following their increase in price to £2, January 2014
                                                                                        • The Consumer – Frequency of Lotto Play

                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                            • Cutting back: Won’t play or can’t pay?
                                                                                              • Figure 33: Frequency of purchasing National Lottery Lotto draw tickets following their increase in price to £2, January 2014
                                                                                            • Odds an issue at higher price points
                                                                                              • Figure 34: Agreement with the statement ‘I would rather play a lottery draw that offers a better chance of winning a small prize than one with a slim chance of winning a big one’, by frequency of purchasing National Lottery Lotto draw tickets following their increase in price to £2, January 2014
                                                                                          • The Consumer – Switching Lotto Spend

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • A quarter of Lotto players turn elsewhere
                                                                                                • Figure 35: Switching of Lotto expenditure to other draws and forms of gambling, January 2014
                                                                                              • Younger players quickest to switch
                                                                                                • Figure 36: Switching of Lotto expenditure to other draws and forms of gambling, by age, January 2014
                                                                                              • Switchers strongly sensitive to price
                                                                                                • Figure 37: Incentives to playing lottery draw games, by switching of Lotto expenditure to other draws and forms of gambling, January 2014
                                                                                            • The Consumer – Purchasing Lottery Tickets

                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                • Supermarket shoppers split from corner shop customers
                                                                                                  • Figure 38: Locations lottery tickets or scratchcards purchased from, January 2014
                                                                                                • Online play a turn-off for the young
                                                                                                  • Figure 39: Purchasing lottery tickets or scratchcards online, by age, January 2014
                                                                                                • IWGs only scratching the surface online
                                                                                                  • Figure 40: Purchasing lottery tickets or scratchcards online, by participation in National Lottery scratchcard games, January 2014
                                                                                                • Retail outlets convenient enough for most
                                                                                                  • Figure 41: Repertoire of types of location lottery draw tickets and/or scratchcards/instant wins purchased from, January 2014
                                                                                              • The Consumer – Incentives to Lottery Draw Play

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • Size of jackpot v thickness of wallet
                                                                                                    • Figure 42: Incentives to lottery draw play, January 2014
                                                                                                  • Promotion of mobile can help lotteries get lucky
                                                                                                    • Figure 43: Feeling lucky as an incentive to lottery draw play, by lottery games played, January 2014
                                                                                                  • Women act on impulse
                                                                                                    • Figure 44: Impulse playing of lottery draw games, by gender and socio-economic group, January 2014
                                                                                                  • Charity begins closest to home
                                                                                                    • Figure 45: Importance of charity support as an incentive to lottery draw play, by lottery games played, January 2014
                                                                                                • The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Lottery Games

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Players look beyond the jackpot and weigh up the odds
                                                                                                      • Figure 46: Attitudes towards lottery draw games, January 2014
                                                                                                    • Players prefer retail – but online by no means a closed shop
                                                                                                      • Figure 47: Preferred modes of purchasing lottery draw tickets, January 2014
                                                                                                    • Scratchcards an option to connect society lotteries with the young
                                                                                                      • Figure 48: Agreement with the statement 'Playing scratchcards is more exciting than buying lottery draw tickets’, by lottery games played, January 2014
                                                                                                  • Appendix – Market Drivers

                                                                                                      • Figure 49: Household/personal ownership of consumer technology products, June and September 2013
                                                                                                  • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                      • Figure 50: Forecast of consumer expenditure on lotteries, 2013/14-2018/19
                                                                                                  • Appendix – The Consumer – Lottery Game Play

                                                                                                      • Figure 51: Participation in most popular lottery games, by demographics, January 2014
                                                                                                      • Figure 52: Participation in next most popular lottery games, by demographics, January 2014
                                                                                                      • Figure 53: Participation in lottery games, by participation in lottery games, January 2014
                                                                                                      • Figure 54: Repertoire of participation in lottery games, by demographics, January 2014
                                                                                                      • Figure 55: Participation in lottery games, by repertoire of participation in lottery games, January 2014
                                                                                                  • Appendix – The Consumer – Lotto Ticket Buying

                                                                                                      • Figure 56: Purchasing of National Lottery Lotto draw tickets following their increase in price to £2, by demographics, January 2014
                                                                                                      • Figure 57: Incentives to lottery draw play, by purchasing of National Lottery Lotto draw tickets following their increase in price to £2, January 2014
                                                                                                      • Figure 58: Attitudes towards lottery draw games, by purchasing of National Lottery Lotto draw tickets following their increase in price to £2, January 2014
                                                                                                  • Appendix – The Consumer – Frequency of Lotto Play

                                                                                                      • Figure 59: Frequency of purchasing National Lottery Lotto draw tickets following their increase in price to £2, by demographics, January 2014
                                                                                                      • Figure 60: Incentives to lottery draw play, by frequency of purchasing National Lottery Lotto draw tickets following their increase in price to £2, January 2014
                                                                                                      • Figure 61: Attitudes towards lottery draw games, by frequency of purchasing National Lottery Lotto draw tickets following their increase in price to £2, January 2014
                                                                                                  • Appendix – The Consumer – Switching Lotto Spend

                                                                                                      • Figure 62: Switching of lotto expenditure to other draws and forms of gambling, by demographics, January 2014
                                                                                                      • Figure 63: Incentives to lottery draw play, by switching of lotto expenditure to other draws and forms of gambling, January 2014
                                                                                                      • Figure 64: Attitudes towards lottery draw games, by switching of lotto expenditure to other draws and forms of gambling, January 2014
                                                                                                  • Appendix – The Consumer – Purchasing Lottery Tickets

                                                                                                      • Figure 65: Most popular locations lottery draw tickets purchased from, by demographics, January 2014
                                                                                                      • Figure 66: Next most popular locations lottery draw tickets purchased from, by demographics, January 2014
                                                                                                      • Figure 67: Locations lottery draw tickets purchased from, by locations lottery draw tickets purchased from, January 2014
                                                                                                      • Figure 68: Locations lottery draw tickets purchased from, by participation in lottery games, January 2014
                                                                                                      • Figure 69: Locations lottery draw tickets purchased from, by purchasing of National Lottery Lotto draw tickets following their increase in price to £2, January 2014
                                                                                                      • Figure 70: Locations lottery draw tickets purchased from, by frequency of purchasing National Lottery Lotto draw tickets following their increase in price to £2, January 2014
                                                                                                      • Figure 71: Locations lottery draw tickets purchased from, by switching of lotto expenditure to other draws and forms of gambling, January 2014
                                                                                                      • Figure 72: Repertoire of locations lottery draw tickets purchased from, by demographics, January 2014
                                                                                                      • Figure 73: Locations lottery draw tickets purchased from, by repertoire of locations lottery draw tickets purchased from, January 2014
                                                                                                  • Appendix – The Consumer – Incentives to Lottery Draw Play

                                                                                                      • Figure 74: Most popular incentives to lottery draw play, by demographics, January 2014
                                                                                                      • Figure 75: Next most popular incentives to lottery draw play, by demographics, January 2014
                                                                                                  • Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Lottery Games

                                                                                                      • Figure 76: Most popular attitudes towards lottery draw games, by demographics, January 2014
                                                                                                      • Figure 77: Next most popular attitudes towards lottery draw games, by demographics, January 2014

                                                                                                  Companies Covered

                                                                                                  • Abbott Mead Vickers BBDO Ltd
                                                                                                  • Camelot Group plc
                                                                                                  • Gala Coral Group Ltd
                                                                                                  • Gambling Commission
                                                                                                  • National Lottery Commission
                                                                                                  • Northern & Shell plc
                                                                                                  • Poundland Ltd

                                                                                                  Lotteries - UK - March 2014

                                                                                                  £1,995.00 (Excl.Tax)