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Lunch Meat - US - May 2011

This report builds on the analysis presented in Mintel’s Lunch Meat—U.S., December 2009, Breakfast and Sandwich Meat—U.S., April 2007, as well as Breakfast and Sandwich Meats—U.S., October 2005, and Packaged Breakfast and Sandwich Meats—U.S., August 2002.

For the purposes of this report, the lunch meat market has been segmented as follows:

  • Refrigerated, sliced lunch meat including, but not limited to: ham, turkey, salami, pastrami, bologna, chicken, corned beef. Generally used primarily for everyday consumption.
  • Refrigerated non-sliced lunch meat including, but not limited to: specialty salami, ham, wursts, and turkey. Generally more premium specialty products, potentially more consumed for special occasions such as holidays. Generally more limited selection than sliced meat.
  • Deli lunch meat – found in the supermarket’s deli department.

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer survey data
              • Abbreviations and terms
                • Abbreviations
                  • Terms
                  • Executive Summary

                    • Market at a glance
                      • Consumers seek lunch meat to save money, but eating healthy is also important
                        • Pricing and product perception part of the competitive environment
                          • Competition from school meal programs and specialty sandwich shops
                            • Supermarkets find themselves in front of the lunch meat line
                              • Lunch meat marketers may want to say “cheese”
                                • Promoting lunch meat usage outside of lunchtime
                                  • Innovations focused on better-for-you and premium products
                                    • Lunch meat marketers easing into social media
                                      • Usage of most lunch meat is challenged by market saturation
                                        • Lunch meat usage is fairly consistent across racial/ethnic groups
                                          • Kids and teens are big lunch meat consumers
                                          • Insights and Opportunities

                                            • Co-packaging with cheese products
                                              • Promoting lunch meat usage throughout the day
                                                • Adopting a two-tier pricing strategy for lunch meat
                                                  • Developing more natural products to stay relevant to younger shoppers
                                                    • Offering vegetarian versions of lunch meat
                                                      • Labeling deli counter lunch meat products to appeal to health-conscious consumers
                                                      • Inspire Insights

                                                          • Inspire Trend: Extend my Brand
                                                          • Market Size and Forecast

                                                            • Key points
                                                              • Lunch meat surpasses $8 billion mark in 2010
                                                                • Figure 1: U.S. FDMx sales of lunch meat, at current prices, 2005-15
                                                                • Figure 2: U.S. FDMx sales of lunch meat, at inflation-adjusted* prices, 2005-15
                                                              • Fan-chart forecast
                                                                  • Figure 3: FDMx sales and fan forecast of lunch meat products, at current prices, 2005-15
                                                                • Walmart sales
                                                                • Market Drivers

                                                                  • Recession-weary consumers still seeking value
                                                                    • Interest in healthier eating will favor lunch meat with better-for-you nutritional characteristics
                                                                      • Forecasted population patterns provide mixed results for lunch meat
                                                                        • Figure 4: Population by age, 2006-16
                                                                    • Competitive Context

                                                                      • Key points
                                                                        • Deli lunch meat enjoys better quality perception relative to prepackaged lunch meat
                                                                          • National school lunch program may pose a threat to lunch meat
                                                                            • Convenience stores’ emphasis on fresh food makes them a lunchtime destination
                                                                              • Growth of specialty restaurants tapping into consumers’ interest in variety
                                                                                • Private label small but growing
                                                                                • Segment Performance

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • All lunch meat segments posted sales gains through FDMx between 2008 and 2010
                                                                                      • Figure 5: U.S. FDMx sales of lunch meat, by segment, 2008 and 2010
                                                                                  • Segment Performance—Deli Lunch Meat

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • Slow but steady growth for the deli lunch meat segment
                                                                                        • Figure 6: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of deli lunch meat, at current prices, 2005-15
                                                                                    • Segment Performance—Sliced Lunch Meat

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • Segment showing signs of maturity as growth comes slowly
                                                                                          • Sales and forecast of sliced lunch meats
                                                                                            • Figure 7: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of sliced lunch meat, at current prices, 2005-15
                                                                                        • Segment Performance—Non-sliced Lunch Meat

                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                            • Lack of convenience, fewer products hampering segment
                                                                                              • Figure 8: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of non-sliced lunch meat, at current prices, 2005-15
                                                                                          • Retail Channels

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • Supermarkets remain the dominant channel
                                                                                                • Figure 9: U.S. FDMx sales of lunch meat, by channel, 2008 and 2010
                                                                                            • Retail Channels—Supermarkets

                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                • A slow and steady approach seems to be working for supermarkets
                                                                                                  • Figure 10: U.S. supermarket sales of lunch meat, at current prices, 2005-10
                                                                                              • Retail Channels—Other FDMx Channels

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • Other FDMx channels’ growth is impressive but market share still very small
                                                                                                    • Figure 11: U.S. “other” FDMx sales of lunch meat, at current prices, 2005-10
                                                                                                • Leading Companies

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Change is in the air for many lunch meat companies
                                                                                                      • Figure 12: FDMx manufacturer sales of sliced and non-sliced lunch meats in the U.S., 2009* and 2010*
                                                                                                  • Brand Share—Sliced Lunch Meat

                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                      • Companies’ emphasis on deli-like packaged lunch meat leads to mixed outcomes
                                                                                                        • Manufacturer and brand sales of sliced lunch meat
                                                                                                          • Figure 13: FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of sliced lunch meat in the U.S., 2009* and 2010*
                                                                                                      • Brand Share—Non-sliced Lunch Meat

                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                          • Small and fragmented segment generates a competitive environment
                                                                                                              • Figure 14: FDMx Manufacturer and brand sales of non-sliced lunch meat in the U.S., 2009* and 2010*
                                                                                                          • Innovations and Innovators

                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                              • Better-for-you
                                                                                                                • Deli style
                                                                                                                  • Premium
                                                                                                                    • Private Label
                                                                                                                    • Marketing Strategies

                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                        • Kraft Foods offers strong marketing support for its Oscar Mayer lunch meats
                                                                                                                          • Kraft Foods launches most ambitious Oscar Mayer campaign in 2010
                                                                                                                            • Land O’Moms builds sense of community
                                                                                                                              • Overview of traditional advertising
                                                                                                                                • TV advertising
                                                                                                                                  • Boar’s Head takes on sandwich shops
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 15: Boar’s Head EverRoast chicken breast, TV ad, April 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Oscar Mayer offers holiday time year-round
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 16: Oscar Mayer Carving Board, TV ad, March 2011
                                                                                                                                  • Hillshire Farm plays nice with kids
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 17: Hillshire Farm Deli Select Ultra Thin, TV ad, July 2010
                                                                                                                                • Lunch Meat Usage and Usage Frequency

                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                    • Lunch meat market is near saturation
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 18: Household consumption of cold cuts, by presence of children and household income, July 2009-September 2010
                                                                                                                                    • Monthly household consumption in pounds is at its highest since 2002
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 19: Pounds of Lunch Meat eaten by household, 2002-10
                                                                                                                                    • 35 to 64 year olds use lunch meat the most
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 20: Lunch meat consumption, by gender and age, January 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Lunch is the most common occasion for eating lunch meat
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 21: Lunch meat household and personal consumption, by day part occasion, January 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Ham and turkey are the most popular types of lunch meat
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 22: Household consumption of cold cuts, by type of meat and by presence of children, July 2009-September 2010
                                                                                                                                    • Lunch meat is most often eaten as part of a sandwich
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 23: Usage of lunch meat by type of meat, by carrier and by age, January 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Home is where most people make their sandwiches
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 24: Location where the sandwich is personally prepared/bought by respondent, by age, January 2011
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 25: Location where sandwich prepared by household income, January 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Lunch meat bought most frequently by the 18 to 34 age group
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 26: Frequency of Lunch meat purchases, by age, January 2011
                                                                                                                                  • Purchase Drivers of Lunch Meat: Health

                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                      • More younger consumers look for natural lunch meat
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 27: Lunch meat purchase drivers, health related attributes, by gender and age, January 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Value Perceptions of Lunch Meat

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                        • Younger shoppers are more price sensitive
                                                                                                                                          • Most consumers purchase lunch meat and cheese at the same time
                                                                                                                                            • Majority of consumers believe deli meat is fresher than packaged lunch meat
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 28: Lunch meat purchase drivers, value related attributes, by gender and age, January 2011
                                                                                                                                          • Race and Hispanic Origin

                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                              • Asians are not big consumers of lunch meat
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 29: Lunch meat consumption, by race/hispanic origin, January 2011
                                                                                                                                              • More black and Hispanic children under 6 eat lunch meat
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 30: Children lunch meat consumption, by race/hispanic origin, January 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Lunch is the most common time for eating lunch meat
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 31: Lunch Meat usage by day part occasion, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Turkey and ham the most popular types of lunch meat
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 32: Household usage of lunch meat by type of meat, by carrier and by race/Hispanic orgin, January 2011
                                                                                                                                              • The majority of respondents, regardless of race, purchase lunch meat one to three times a month
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 33: Purchase frequency of lunch meat by race/Hispanic origin, January 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Healthy attributes are important to all ethnic lunch meat consumers
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 34: Purchase drivers, health-related attributes, by race/ethnicity, January 2011.
                                                                                                                                              • Majority of all racial/ethnic groups would buy more lunch meat if it was less expensive
                                                                                                                                                • More blacks buy lunch meat and cheese at the same time
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 35: Purchase drivers, value related, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Kids and Teens

                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                  • Young consumers have an appetite for lunch meat
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 36: Consumption of cold cuts in the last 30 days for kids ages 6-11, by gender, July 2009-September 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 37: Consumption and frequency of consumption of cold cuts usage in the last 30 days for teens 12-17, by gender, July 2009-September 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 38: Consumption of cold cuts in the last 30 days for teens 12-17, by type of meat and gender, July 2009-September 2010
                                                                                                                                                • Cluster Analysis

                                                                                                                                                    • Attribute Averse
                                                                                                                                                      • Demographics
                                                                                                                                                        • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                                          • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                            • Uninformed Purchasers
                                                                                                                                                              • Demographics
                                                                                                                                                                • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                  • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                                    • Fresh and Frequent
                                                                                                                                                                      • Demographics
                                                                                                                                                                        • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                          • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                                            • Cluster characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 39: Lunch and deli meat purchaser clusters, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 40: Frequency of lunch meat purchases, by purchaser clusters, January 2011
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 41: Lunch meat purchase drivers, health related attributes, by purchaser clusters, January 2011
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 42: Lunch meat purchase drivers, value related attributes, by purchaser clusters, January 2011
                                                                                                                                                                            • Cluster demographics
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 43: Lunch and deli meat purchaser clusters, by gender, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 44: Lunch and deli meat purchaser clusters, by age, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 45: Lunch and deli meat purchaser clusters, by household income, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 46: Lunch and deli meat purchaser clusters, by race, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 47: Lunch and deli meat purchaser clusters, by Hispanic origin, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 48: Lunch and deli meat purchaser clusters, by marital status, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 49: Lunch and deli meat purchaser clusters by employment, February 2011
                                                                                                                                                                            • Cluster methodology
                                                                                                                                                                            • Custom Consumer Groups

                                                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                • Experian Simmons Food Lifestyle segments provide additional insights regarding lunch meat consumers
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 50: Consumption of cold cuts, by Experian Simmons lifestyle segment, July 2009-September 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 51: Consumption of cold cuts, by type of meat, by Experian Simmons lifestyle segment, July 2009-September 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 52: Consumption of cold cuts in last 30 days, by Experian Simmons lifestyle segment, July 2009-September 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                • IRI/Builders Panel Data—Key Households Purchase Measures: Luncheon meats—U.S.

                                                                                                                                                                                    • Overview
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Refrigerated sliced lunch meat
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Consumer insights on key purchase measures—refrigerated sliced lunch meat
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 53: Brand map, selected brands of refrigerated sliced lunch meat buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 54: Key purchase measures for the top brands of refrigerated sliced lunch meat, by household penetration, 2010*
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Refrigerated non-sliced lunch meat
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Consumer insights on key purchase measures—refrigerated non-sliced lunch meat
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 55: Brand map, selected brands of refrigerated non-sliced lunch meat buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 56: Key purchase measures for the top brands of refrigerated non-sliced lunch meat, by household penetration, 2010*
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 57: Children lunch meat consumption, by gender and household income, January 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 58: Frequency of Lunch meat purchases, by gender and household income, January 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 59: Lunch meat purchase drivers, health-related attributes, by household income, January 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 60: Location where sandwich prepared, by race/ethnicity, January 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix: IRI/Builders Panel Data Definitions

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • IRI Consumer Network Metrics
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix: Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                                                                      Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • 7-Eleven (North America)
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • ABP Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Aldi (USA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • American Association of Meat Processors (AAMP)
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • American Heart Association, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • American Meat Institute (AMI)
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Cadbury Adams USA LLC
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Coca-Cola Company (The) (USA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • ConAgra Foods, Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Food and Drug Administration
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Food Marketing Institute
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Food Products Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Grocery Manufacturers Association (GMA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Grocery Manufacturers of America (GMA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Hormel
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • International Dairy·Deli·Bakery Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Jennie-O Turkey Store, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Kraft Foods Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • National Meat Association (NMA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Natural Products Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Panera Bread Company
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Private Label Manufacturers Association (PLMA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Procter & Gamble USA
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Safeway Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Sara Lee Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Sara Lee Food & Beverage
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Smithfield Foods Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Subway
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The Quiznos Master LLC
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The Vegetarian Resource Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Twitter, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • U.S. Bureau of the Census
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • U.S. Department of Agriculture
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • US Department of Commerce
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Walmart Stores (USA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Weight Watchers International Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • YouTube, Inc.

                                                                                                                                                                                                      Lunch Meat - US - May 2011

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