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Market Re-forecasts - Beauty and Personal Care - UK - March 2009

Mintel's re-forecasting puts markets in realistic light

In less than nine months, the UK has changed from booming, overheated economy to an economy in crisis. In a fast-developing environment, up-to-date market and consumer data is more critical than ever.

It takes time for changes in macro-economic variables to have an impact on consumer spending. But it is now clear that consumers’ expectations, attitudes and beliefs have changed dramatically in the past six months. As a result, Mintel’s market size estimates and forecasts based on different consumer expectations warrant revision. For the first time in its near-40 years of delivering market and consumer insights, Mintel has conducted an exhaustive mid-cycle re-evaluation of consumer market forecasts published in 2007 & 2008.

The macro-economic changes

Since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, crisis upon crisis has hit the UK financial services sector with several key players having to be rescued from the threat of insolvency. The consequences for the UK economy have been dramatic as the government and markets have reacted to unfolding events. Some of the falls include:

  • interest rates from 5% to 0.5% (Oct. ’08 to Mar ‘09)

  • the sterling/dollar exchange rate from $2 to the pound to $1.45 (Jun. ‘08 to Feb ’09)

  • the sterling/euro exchange rate from 1.25 euros to the pound to a low of 1.01 euros (most of ’08 to Jan. ’09)

  • the retail price index (RPI) from 5% to 0.1% (Sept. ’08 to Jan ’09)

  • the consumer price index (CPI) from over 5% to 3% (Sept. ’08 to Jan ’09 – less dramatic than RPI primarily as it excludes mortgage interest payments and housing depreciation).

The significance of these changes

Mintel has tracked UK consumer expenditure for almost 40 years, including the recessions of the seventies, 1980-81 and 1991-92.

Mintel market size estimates combine historic data trends with the most current consumer data, published data and trade insight. Using a range of economic variables, primarily consumer-related, such as consumer expenditure, personal disposable income and the consumer price index, we have re-estimated and re-forecast the market data in more than 300 of our UK reports.

This work will enable us to understand better which sectors are suffering most in the current economic crisis. How are consumers likely to spend their incomes in the coming years? Which sectors will suffer and benefit most? How should suppliers react in the short-, medium- and long-term?

The worst impact of recession is skewed towards certain sectors where big ticket, discretionary purchases are the norm: automotive; any sector where there is a close correlation with house purchasing (eg brown & white goods, floor coverings), technology and travel. But within each sector, there are winners and losers. Are car-buyers switching from new to used cars? Is the after-sales market benefiting as car owners delay purchases? When will an upturn take place?

Are consumers trading up to better quality products, trading down, or trading over? Each segment of each sector has to be analysed separately and in comparison with others.

Presentation of data

Mintel’s revised data is presented in an easy-to-use manner:

  • relevant commentary about the sector, with discussion of pertinent changes in the sector and an overall assessment of the current state of the market

  • a chart of the previous estimates and forecasts for a sector alongside the revised data

  • tables for the period 2002-2012 or 2003-2013, incorporating

  • previous and revised estimates & forecasts at current prices

  • the absolute value of the change to the market forecast

  • index numbers to show percentage changes

  • In most cases, we have added a further paragraph bringing to the attention of users of a scenario based on a more pessimistic forecast of economic circumstances in 2009. This is based on February ONS (Office of National Statistics) data. This should be seen as indicative of the impact of further economic decline: a worse case (but not worst case) scenario.

What next?

Aggregated and revised data, including forecasts to 2014 will be published in British Lifestyles 2009: consumers in crisis at the beginning of April 2009.

A further review of the changes in the markets surveyed by Mintel, consumers’ expenditure plans, and economic forecasts will take place July 2009 and, if necessary, a further set of revised forecasts with commentary will be published in July 2009.

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Table of contents

  1. Key Findings

    • Beauty and Personal Care
    • Introduction

      • Mintel’s re-forecasting puts markets in realistic light
        • The macro-economic changes
          • The significance of these changes
            • Presentation of data
              • What next?
                • Methodology
                  • Differences
                  • Babies’ and Children’s Toiletries

                      • Figure 1: UK babies’ and children’s toiletries market size, 2002-12
                      • Figure 2: UK babies’ and children’s toiletries market size, 2002-12
                    • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                      • Factors used in forecast
                      • Beauty Supplements

                          • Figure 3: UK beauty supplements market size, 2002-12
                          • Figure 4: UK beauty supplements market size, 2002-12
                        • Segment performance
                          • Skincare supplements
                            • Figure 5: UK skincare supplements market size, 2002-12
                            • Figure 6: UK skincare supplements market size, 2002-12
                          • Multi benefit supplements
                            • Figure 7: UK multi benefit supplements market size, 2002-12
                            • Figure 8: UK multi benefit supplements market size, 2002-12
                          • Haircare supplements
                            • Figure 9: UK haircare supplements market size, 2002-12
                            • Figure 10: UK haircare supplements market size, 2002-12
                          • Other supplements
                            • Figure 11: UK other supplements market size, 2002-12
                            • Figure 12: UK other supplements market size, 2002-12
                          • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                            • Factors used in forecast
                            • Cosmeceuticals

                                • Figure 13: UK cosmeceuticals market size, 2002-12
                                • Figure 14: UK cosmeceuticals market size, 2002-12
                              • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                • Factors used in forecast
                                • Cosmetic Dental Surgery

                                    • Figure 15: UK cosmetic dental surgery market size, 2005-12
                                    • Figure 16: UK cosmetic dental surgery market size, 2005-12
                                  • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                    • Factors used in forecast
                                    • Cosmetic Surgery

                                        • Figure 17: UK cosmetic surgery market size, 2002-12
                                        • Figure 18: UK cosmetic surgery market size, 2002-12
                                      • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                        • Factors used in forecast
                                        • Electrical Haircare

                                            • Figure 19: Value sales of the UK electrical haircare market, 2003-13
                                            • Figure 20: The UK electrical haircare market, 2003-13
                                          • Segment performance
                                            • Hairdryers
                                              • Figure 21: UK value sales of hairdryers, 2003-13
                                              • Figure 22: UK value sales of hairdryers, 2003-13
                                              • Figure 23: UK volume sales of hairdryers, 2003-13
                                              • Figure 24: UK volume sales of hairdryers, 2003-13
                                            • Hair styling appliances
                                              • Figure 25: UK hair styling appliances, 2003-13
                                              • Figure 26: UK value sales of hair styling appliances, 2003-13
                                              • Figure 27: UK volume sales of hair styling appliances, 2003-13
                                              • Figure 28: UK volume sales of hair styling appliances, 2003-13
                                            • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                              • Factors used in forecast
                                              • Electronic Beauty Aids

                                                  • Figure 29: UK value sales of beauty aids, 2002-12
                                                  • Figure 30: UK value sales of beauty aids, 2002-12
                                                • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                  • Factors incorporated in the forecast
                                                  • Ethnic Cosmetics and Toiletries

                                                      • A note of explanation
                                                        • Standard scenario
                                                          • Figure 31: UK ethnic cosmetics and toiletries market size, 2002-12
                                                          • Figure 32: UK ethnic cosmetics and toiletries market size, 2002-12
                                                        • Greater availability scenario
                                                          • Figure 33: UK ethnic cosmetics and toiletries market size, 2002-12
                                                          • Figure 34: UK ethnic cosmetics and toiletries market size, 2002-12
                                                        • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                          • Factors used in forecast
                                                          • Facial Skincare

                                                              • Figure 35: Value sale of UK facial skincare market, 2003-13
                                                              • Figure 36: The UK facial skincare market, 2003-13
                                                            • Segment performance
                                                              • Moisturisers
                                                                • Figure 37: UK value sales of moisturisers, 2003-13
                                                                • Figure 38: UK value sales of moisturisers, 2003-13
                                                              • Cleansers
                                                                • Figure 39: UK value sales of cleansers, 2003-13
                                                                • Figure 40: UK value sales of cleansers, 2003-13
                                                              • Toners and astringents and fresheners
                                                                • Figure 41: UK value sales of toners, astringents and fresheners, 2003-13
                                                                • Figure 42: UK value sales of toners, astringents and fresheners, 2003-13
                                                              • Other
                                                                • Figure 43: UK value sales of other i.e. multifunctional products, area specific treatments, 2003-13
                                                                • Figure 44: UK value sales of other i.e. multifunctional products, area specific treatments, 2003-13
                                                              • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                • Factors used in forecast
                                                                • Hair Colourants and Home Perms

                                                                      • Figure 45: Value sales of the UK hair colourants and home perms market, 2002-12
                                                                      • Figure 46: The UK hair colourants and home perms market, 2002-12
                                                                    • Segment performance
                                                                      • Hair colourants
                                                                        • Figure 47: Value sales of the UK hair colourants market, 2002-12
                                                                        • Figure 48: Value sales of the UK hair colourants, 2002-12
                                                                      • Highlights
                                                                        • Figure 49: Value sales of the UK highlighters market, 2002-12
                                                                        • Figure 50: Value sales of the UK highlighters market, 2002-12
                                                                      • Perms and relaxers
                                                                        • Figure 51: Value sales of the UK perms and relaxers market, 2002-12
                                                                        • Figure 52: Value sales of the UK perms and relaxers market, 2002-12
                                                                      • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                        • Factors used in forecast
                                                                        • Hair Salon Products

                                                                            • Figure 53: Value sales of UK hair salon products, 2003-13
                                                                            • Figure 54: Value sales of UK hair salon products, 2003-13
                                                                          • Segment performance
                                                                            • Salon shampoos
                                                                              • Figure 55: Value sales of UK hair salon shampoos, 2003-13
                                                                              • Figure 56: Value sales of UK hair salon shampoos, 2003-13
                                                                            • Salon conditioners
                                                                              • Figure 57: Value sales of UK hair salon conditioners, 2003-13
                                                                              • Figure 58: Value sales of UK hair salon conditioners, 2003-13
                                                                            • Salon styling agents
                                                                              • Figure 59: Value sales of UK hair salon styling agents, 2003-13
                                                                              • Figure 60: Value sales of UK hair salon styling agents, 2003-13
                                                                            • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                              • Factors used in forecast
                                                                              • Health and Beauty Treatments

                                                                                  • Figure 61: UK health and beauty treatments market size, 2001-11
                                                                                  • Figure 62: UK health and beauty treatments market size, 2001-11
                                                                                • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                  • Factors used in forecast
                                                                                  • Make-up

                                                                                        • Figure 63: UK value sales of make-up, 2003-13
                                                                                        • Figure 64: UK value sales of make-up, 2003-13
                                                                                      • Segment performance
                                                                                        • Face make-up
                                                                                          • Figure 65: UK value sales of face make-up, 2003-13
                                                                                          • Figure 66: UK value sales of face make-up, 2003-13
                                                                                        • Eyes
                                                                                          • Figure 67: UK value sales of eye make-up, 2003-13
                                                                                          • Figure 68: UK value sales of eye make-up, 2003-13
                                                                                        • Lips
                                                                                          • Figure 69: UK Value sales of lip make-up, 2003-13
                                                                                          • Figure 70: UK Value sales of lip make-up, 2003-13
                                                                                        • Nails
                                                                                          • Figure 71: UK Value sales of nail make-up, 2003-13
                                                                                          • Figure 72: UK Value sales of nail make-up, 2003-13
                                                                                        • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                          • Factors used in forecast
                                                                                          • Men’s Fragrances

                                                                                              • Figure 73: UK men’s fragrances market size, 2002-12
                                                                                              • Figure 74: UK men’s fragrances market size, 2002-12
                                                                                            • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                              • Factors used in forecast
                                                                                              • Men’s Toiletries

                                                                                                  • Figure 75: The UK men’s toiletries market, 2002-12
                                                                                                  • Figure 76: The UK men’s toiletries market, 2002-12
                                                                                                • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                  • Factors used in forecast
                                                                                                  • Optical Goods and Eyecare

                                                                                                      • Figure 77: The UK optical goods and eyecare market, 2003-13
                                                                                                      • Figure 78: The UK optical goods and eyecare market, 2003-13
                                                                                                    • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                      • Factors used in forecast
                                                                                                      • Shampoos and Conditioners

                                                                                                            • Figure 79: UK shampoos and conditiioners market size, 2002-12
                                                                                                            • Figure 80: UK shampoos and conditiioners market size, 2002-12
                                                                                                          • Segment performance
                                                                                                            • Shampoos
                                                                                                              • Figure 81: UK shampoos market size, 2002-12
                                                                                                              • Figure 82: UK shampoos market size, 2002-12
                                                                                                            • Conditioners
                                                                                                              • Figure 83: UK conditiioners market size, 2002-12
                                                                                                              • Figure 84: UK conditiioners market size, 2002-12
                                                                                                            • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                              • Factors used in forecast
                                                                                                              • Soap, Bath and Shower Products

                                                                                                                  • Figure 85: Value sales of the UK soap, bath and shower products market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                  • Figure 86: Value sales of the UK soap, bath and shower products market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                • Segment performance
                                                                                                                  • Shower products
                                                                                                                    • Figure 87: Value sales of the UK shower products market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                    • Figure 88: Value sales of the UK shower products market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                  • Bath additives
                                                                                                                    • Figure 89: Value sales of the UK bath additives market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                    • Figure 90: Value sales of the UK bath additives market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                  • Bar soap
                                                                                                                    • Figure 91: Value sales of the UK bar soap market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                    • Figure 92: Value sales of the UK bar soap market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                  • Liquid soap
                                                                                                                    • Figure 93: Value sales of the UK liquid soap market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                    • Figure 94: Value sales of the UK liquid soap market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                  • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                    • Factors used in forecast
                                                                                                                    • Suncare Preparations

                                                                                                                          • Figure 95: Value sales of the UK suncare preparations market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                          • Figure 96: Value sales of the UK suncare preparations market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                        • Segmentation
                                                                                                                          • Sun protection
                                                                                                                            • Figure 97: Value sales of UK sun protection products, 2003-13
                                                                                                                            • Figure 98: Value sales of UK sun protection products, 2003-13
                                                                                                                          • After sun products
                                                                                                                            • Figure 99: Value sales of UK after sun products, 2003-13
                                                                                                                            • Figure 100: Value sales of UK after sun products, 2003-13
                                                                                                                          • Self-tan products
                                                                                                                            • Figure 101: Value sales of UK self-tan products, 2003-13
                                                                                                                            • Figure 102: Value sales of UK self-tan products, 2003-13
                                                                                                                          • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                            • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                                                            • Women’s Fragrances

                                                                                                                                • Figure 103: UK women’s fragrances market size, 2002-12
                                                                                                                                • Figure 104: UK women’s fragrances market size, 2002-12
                                                                                                                              • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                                • Factors used in forecast

                                                                                                                                Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                Market Re-forecasts - Beauty and Personal Care - UK - March 2009

                                                                                                                                £1,000.00 (Excl.Tax)