Sorry for interrupting, this website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Learn more
Accept & Close

Market Re-forecasts - Drink - UK - March 2009

Mintel's re-forecasting puts markets in realistic light

In less than nine months, the UK has changed from booming, overheated economy to an economy in crisis. In a fast-developing environment, up-to-date market and consumer data is more critical than ever.

It takes time for changes in macro-economic variables to have an impact on consumer spending. But it is now clear that consumers’ expectations, attitudes and beliefs have changed dramatically in the past six months. As a result, Mintel’s market size estimates and forecasts based on different consumer expectations warrant revision. For the first time in its near-40 years of delivering market and consumer insights, Mintel has conducted an exhaustive mid-cycle re-evaluation of consumer market forecasts published in 2007 & 2008.

The macro-economic changes

Since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, crisis upon crisis has hit the UK financial services sector with several key players having to be rescued from the threat of insolvency. The consequences for the UK economy have been dramatic as the government and markets have reacted to unfolding events. Some of the falls include:

  • interest rates from 5% to 0.5% (Oct. ’08 to Mar ‘09)

  • the sterling/dollar exchange rate from $2 to the pound to $1.45 (Jun. ‘08 to Feb ’09)

  • the sterling/euro exchange rate from 1.25 euros to the pound to a low of 1.01 euros (most of ’08 to Jan. ’09)

  • the retail price index (RPI) from 5% to 0.1% (Sept. ’08 to Jan ’09)

  • the consumer price index (CPI) from over 5% to 3% (Sept. ’08 to Jan ’09 – less dramatic than RPI primarily as it excludes mortgage interest payments and housing depreciation).

The significance of these changes

Mintel has tracked UK consumer expenditure for almost 40 years, including the recessions of the seventies, 1980-81 and 1991-92.

Mintel market size estimates combine historic data trends with the most current consumer data, published data and trade insight. Using a range of economic variables, primarily consumer-related, such as consumer expenditure, personal disposable income and the consumer price index, we have re-estimated and re-forecast the market data in more than 300 of our UK reports.

This work will enable us to understand better which sectors are suffering most in the current economic crisis. How are consumers likely to spend their incomes in the coming years? Which sectors will suffer and benefit most? How should suppliers react in the short-, medium- and long-term?

The worst impact of recession is skewed towards certain sectors where big ticket, discretionary purchases are the norm: automotive; any sector where there is a close correlation with house purchasing (eg brown & white goods, floor coverings), technology and travel. But within each sector, there are winners and losers. Are car-buyers switching from new to used cars? Is the after-sales market benefiting as car owners delay purchases? When will an upturn take place?

Are consumers trading up to better quality products, trading down, or trading over? Each segment of each sector has to be analysed separately and in comparison with others.

Presentation of data

Mintel’s revised data is presented in an easy-to-use manner:

  • relevant commentary about the sector, with discussion of pertinent changes in the sector and an overall assessment of the current state of the market

  • a chart of the previous estimates and forecasts for a sector alongside the revised data

  • tables for the period 2002-2012 or 2003-2013, incorporating

  • previous and revised estimates & forecasts at current prices

  • the absolute value of the change to the market forecast

  • index numbers to show percentage changes

  • In most cases, we have added a further paragraph bringing to the attention of users of a scenario based on a more pessimistic forecast of economic circumstances in 2009. This is based on February ONS (Office of National Statistics) data. This should be seen as indicative of the impact of further economic decline: a worse case (but not worst case) scenario.

What next?

Aggregated and revised data, including forecasts to 2014 will be published in British Lifestyles 2009: consumers in crisis at the beginning of April 2009.

A further review of the changes in the markets surveyed by Mintel, consumers’ expenditure plans, and economic forecasts will take place July 2009 and, if necessary, a further set of revised forecasts with commentary will be published in July 2009.

What you get

What's included

Why buy from us?

Succeed

Our reports will provide you with market data, consumer research and competitive intelligence to succeed in your market.

Instant Access

Buy now and you'll have instant access to the information you need to make the right decisions.

Opportunities

Find out what's next in the markets that matter to you: where opportunities lie and what challenges you will face.

Trusted

A business Superbrand, Mintel is a source you can trust. We have been defining and refining the Market Intelligence mix since 1972.

Table of contents

  1. Key Findings

    • Drink
    • Introduction

      • Mintel’s re-forecasting puts markets in realistic light
        • The macro-economic changes
          • The significance of these changes
            • Presentation of data
              • What next?
                • Methodology
                  • Differences
                  • Alcoholic Mixables

                      • Figure 1: UK sales of alcoholic mixables, both on- and off-trade, by value, 2003-13
                      • Figure 2: UK sales of alcoholic mixables, both on- and off-trade, by value, 2003-13
                    • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                      • Factors used in the forecast
                      • Ales and Stouts

                          • Figure 3: UK value sales of ales and stouts, both on- and off-trade, 2003-13
                          • Figure 4: UK value sales of ales and stouts, both on- and off-trade, by value, 2003-13
                        • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                          • Factors used in the forecast
                          • Bottled Water

                              • Figure 5: UK retail value sales of bottled water, 2002-12
                              • Figure 6: UK retail value sales of bottled water, 2002-12
                            • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                              • Factors used in the forecast
                              • Champagne

                                    • Figure 7: UK value sales of champagne, both on- and off-trade, 2002-12
                                    • Figure 8: UK value sales of champagne, both on- and off-trade, 2002-12
                                  • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                    • Factors used in the forecast
                                    • Cider

                                        • Figure 9: UK value sales of cider, both on- and off-trade, 2003-13
                                        • Figure 10: UK value sales of cider, both on- and off-trade, 2003-13
                                      • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                        • Factors used in the forecast
                                        • Dark Rum and Brandy

                                            • Figure 11: UK value sales of dark spirits, both on- and off-trade, 2002-12
                                            • Figure 12: UK value sales of dark spirits, both on- and off-trade, 2002-12
                                            • Figure 13: UK volume sales of dark spirits, both on- and off-trade, 2002-12
                                            • Figure 14: UK volume sales of dark spirits, both on- and off-trade, 2002-12
                                          • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                            • Factors used in the forecast
                                            • Flavoured Alcoholic Beverages

                                                • Figure 15: UK retail value sales of FABs, 2002-12
                                                • Figure 16: UK retail value sales of FABs, 2002-12
                                                • Figure 3: UK retail volume sales of FABs, 2002-12
                                                • Figure 4: UK retail volume sales of FABs, 2002-12
                                              • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                • Factors used in the forecast
                                                • Fruit Juice and Juice Drinks

                                                    • Figure 17: UK original and re-forecast retail sales of fruit juice and juice drinks both on- and off-trade, by value, 2003-13
                                                    • Figure 18: UK original and re-forecast retail sales of fruit juice and juice drinks both on- and off-trade, by value, 2003-13
                                                  • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                    • Factors used in the forecast
                                                    • High Street Pubs and Bars

                                                        • Figure 19: UK original and re-forecast retail sales of high street pubs and bars, by value, 2003-13
                                                        • Figure 20: UK original and re-forecast retail sales of high street pubs and bars, by value, 2003-13
                                                      • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                        • Factors used in the forecast
                                                        • Hot Chocolate

                                                            • Figure 21: UK retail value sales of hot chocolate, 2003-13
                                                            • Figure 22: UK retail value sales of hot chocolate, 2003-13
                                                          • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                            • Factors used in the forecast
                                                            • Independent Pubs

                                                                • Figure 23: UK independent pub market by turnover, 2002-12
                                                                • Figure 24: UK independent pub market by turnover, 2002-12
                                                                • Figure 25: UK independent pub outlets, 2002-12
                                                                • Figure 26: UK independent pub outlets, 2002-12
                                                              • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                • Lager

                                                                    • Figure 27: UK value sales of lager, boith on- and off-trade, 2002-12
                                                                    • Figure 28: UK value sales of lager, boith on- and off-trade, 2002-12
                                                                    • Figure 29: UK volume sales of lager, boith on- and off-trade, 2002-12
                                                                    • Figure 30: UK volume sales of lager, boith on- and off-trade, 2002-12
                                                                  • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                    • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                    • Liqueurs

                                                                        • Figure 31: UK value sales of liqueurs, both on- and off-trade, 2003-13
                                                                        • Figure 32: UK value sales of liqueurs, both on- and off-trade, 2003-13
                                                                      • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                        • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                        • Milk and Cream

                                                                            • Figure 33: UK original and re-forecast retail sales of milk and cream both, by value, 2003-13
                                                                            • Figure 34: UK original and re-forecast retail sales of milk and cream, by value, 2003-13
                                                                          • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                            • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                            • Premium Soft Drinks

                                                                                • Figure 35: UK original and re-forecast retail sales of premium soft drinks, by value, 2002-12
                                                                                • Figure 36: UK original and re-forecast retail sales of premium soft drinks by value, 2002-12
                                                                              • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                • Pub Visiting

                                                                                    • Figure 37: Total pub market, 2003-13
                                                                                    • Figure 38: Total pub market, 2003-13
                                                                                  • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                    • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                    • Smoothies

                                                                                        • Figure 39: UK original and re-forecast retail sales of smoothies, by value, 2003-13
                                                                                        • Figure 40: UK original and re-forecast retail sales of smoothies, by value, 20013
                                                                                      • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                        • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                        • Sports and Energy Drinks

                                                                                            • Figure 41: UK retail value sales of sports and energy drinks, 2002-12
                                                                                            • Figure 42: UK retail value sales of sports and energy drinks, 2002-12
                                                                                            • Figure 43: UK retail value sales of sports drinks, 2002-12
                                                                                            • Figure 44: UK retail value sales of sports drinks, 2002-12
                                                                                            • Figure 45: UK retail value sales of energy drinks, 2002-12
                                                                                            • Figure 46: UK retail value sales of energy drinks, 2002-12
                                                                                          • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                            • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                            • Squashes and Cordials

                                                                                                • Figure 47: UK retail value sales of squashes and cordials, 2003-13
                                                                                                • Figure 48: UK retail value sales of squashes and cordials, 2003-13
                                                                                              • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                                • Whisky

                                                                                                    • Figure 49: UK value sales of whiskies, both on- and off-trade, 2003-13
                                                                                                    • Figure 50: UK value sales of whiskies, both on- and off-trade, 2003-13
                                                                                                  • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                    • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                                    • Wine

                                                                                                        • Figure 51: UK value sales of wine, both on- and off-trade, 2002-12
                                                                                                        • Figure 52: UK value sales of wine, both on- and off-trade, 2002-12
                                                                                                        • Figure 53: UK volume sales of wine, both on- and off-trade, 2002-12
                                                                                                        • Figure 54: UK volume sales of wine, both on- and off-trade, 2002-12
                                                                                                      • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                        • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                                        • Wine Retailing

                                                                                                            • Figure 55: UK retail value sales of still wine in the off-trade, 2002-12
                                                                                                            • Figure 56: UK retail value sales of still wine in the off-trade, 2002-12
                                                                                                          • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                            • Factors used in the forecast

                                                                                                            Companies Covered

                                                                                                            To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                            Market Re-forecasts - Drink - UK - March 2009

                                                                                                            £1,500.00 (Excl.Tax)