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Market Re-forecasts - Fashion High Street - UK - March 2009

Mintel's re-forecasting puts markets in realistic light

In less than nine months, the UK has changed from booming, overheated economy to an economy in crisis. In a fast-developing environment, up-to-date market and consumer data is more critical than ever.

It takes time for changes in macro-economic variables to have an impact on consumer spending. But it is now clear that consumers’ expectations, attitudes and beliefs have changed dramatically in the past six months. As a result, Mintel’s market size estimates and forecasts based on different consumer expectations warrant revision. For the first time in its near-40 years of delivering market and consumer insights, Mintel has conducted an exhaustive mid-cycle re-evaluation of consumer market forecasts published in 2007 & 2008.

The macro-economic changes

Since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, crisis upon crisis has hit the UK financial services sector with several key players having to be rescued from the threat of insolvency. The consequences for the UK economy have been dramatic as the government and markets have reacted to unfolding events. Some of the falls include:

  • interest rates from 5% to 0.5% (Oct. ’08 to Mar ‘09)

  • the sterling/dollar exchange rate from $2 to the pound to $1.45 (Jun. ‘08 to Feb ’09)

  • the sterling/euro exchange rate from 1.25 euros to the pound to a low of 1.01 euros (most of ’08 to Jan. ’09)

  • the retail price index (RPI) from 5% to 0.1% (Sept. ’08 to Jan ’09)

  • the consumer price index (CPI) from over 5% to 3% (Sept. ’08 to Jan ’09 – less dramatic than RPI primarily as it excludes mortgage interest payments and housing depreciation).

The significance of these changes

Mintel has tracked UK consumer expenditure for almost 40 years, including the recessions of the seventies, 1980-81 and 1991-92.

Mintel market size estimates combine historic data trends with the most current consumer data, published data and trade insight. Using a range of economic variables, primarily consumer-related, such as consumer expenditure, personal disposable income and the consumer price index, we have re-estimated and re-forecast the market data in more than 300 of our UK reports.

This work will enable us to understand better which sectors are suffering most in the current economic crisis. How are consumers likely to spend their incomes in the coming years? Which sectors will suffer and benefit most? How should suppliers react in the short-, medium- and long-term?

The worst impact of recession is skewed towards certain sectors where big ticket, discretionary purchases are the norm: automotive; any sector where there is a close correlation with house purchasing (eg brown & white goods, floor coverings), technology and travel. But within each sector, there are winners and losers. Are car-buyers switching from new to used cars? Is the after-sales market benefiting as car owners delay purchases? When will an upturn take place?

Are consumers trading up to better quality products, trading down, or trading over? Each segment of each sector has to be analysed separately and in comparison with others.

Presentation of data

Mintel’s revised data is presented in an easy-to-use manner:

  • relevant commentary about the sector, with discussion of pertinent changes in the sector and an overall assessment of the current state of the market

  • a chart of the previous estimates and forecasts for a sector alongside the revised data

  • tables for the period 2002-2012 or 2003-2013, incorporating

  • previous and revised estimates & forecasts at current prices

  • the absolute value of the change to the market forecast

  • index numbers to show percentage changes

  • In most cases, we have added a further paragraph bringing to the attention of users of a scenario based on a more pessimistic forecast of economic circumstances in 2009. This is based on February ONS (Office of National Statistics) data. This should be seen as indicative of the impact of further economic decline: a worse case (but not worst case) scenario.

What next?

Aggregated and revised data, including forecasts to 2014 will be published in British Lifestyles 2009: consumers in crisis at the beginning of April 2009.

A further review of the changes in the markets surveyed by Mintel, consumers’ expenditure plans, and economic forecasts will take place July 2009 and, if necessary, a further set of revised forecasts with commentary will be published in July 2009.

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Table of contents

  1. Key Findings

    • Fashion
    • Introduction

      • Mintel’s re-forecasting puts markets in realistic light
        • The macro-economic changes
          • The significance of these changes
            • Presentation of data
              • What next?
                • Methodology
                  • Differences
                  • Back to School

                      • Figure 1: Total back to school market, 2002-12
                      • Figure 2: The back to school market, 2002-12
                    • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                      • Factors used in forecast
                      • Children’s Clothing

                            • Figure 3: Total childrenswear sales, 2002-12
                            • Figure 4: The Total childrenswear market, 2002-12
                            • Figure 5: The girls clothing market, 2002-12
                            • Figure 6: The boys clothing market, 2002-12
                            • Figure 7: The infants clothing market, 2002-12
                            • Figure 8: The childrens underwear market, 2002-12
                          • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                            • Factors used in forecast
                            • Childrenswear Retailing

                                • Figure 9: Total childrenswear sales, 2002-12
                                • Figure 10: The childrenswear market, 2002-13
                              • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                • Factors used in forecast
                                    • Figure 11: Total clothing and footwear market, 2003-13
                                    • Figure 12: Total clothing specialists market, 2003-13
                                    • Figure 13: Forecast of total spend on clothing & footwear, and specialists at current prices, 2008-13
                                  • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                    • Factors used in forecast
                                    • Clothing Retailing

                                        • Figure 14: Total clothing and footwear market, 2003-13
                                        • Figure 15: Total clothing specialists market, 2003-13
                                        • Figure 16: Forecast of total spend on clothing & footwear, and specialists at current prices, 2008-13
                                      • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                        • Factors used in forecast
                                        • Costume Jewellery

                                            • Figure 17: Costume jewellery market, 2002-12
                                            • Figure 18: The costume jewellery market, 2002-12
                                          • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                            • Factors used in forecast
                                            • Designer Clothing

                                                • Figure 19: Total designer clothing market, 2003-13
                                                • Figure 20: The designer clothing market, 2003-13
                                              • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                • Factors used in forecast
                                                • Factory Outlets

                                                    • Figure 21: Total factory outlets market, 2003-13
                                                    • Figure 22: Forecast of retail sales of UK outlet centres (non-food) excl. VAT, 2003-13
                                                  • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                    • Factors used in forecast
                                                    • Fashion Accessories

                                                        • Figure 23: Total fashion accessories market, 2003-13
                                                        • Figure 24: The fashion accessories market, 2003-13
                                                      • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                        • Factors used in forecast
                                                        • Fashion Advertising

                                                            • Figure 25: Fashion advertising market, 2003-12
                                                            • Figure 26: The fashion advertising market, 2003-12
                                                          • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                            • Factors used in forecast
                                                            • Fashion Online

                                                                • Figure 27: Total fashion online market, 2003-13
                                                                • Figure 28: Market size and forecast of online retail sales of clothing and footwear, 2003-13
                                                              • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                • Factors used in forecast
                                                                • Footwear

                                                                    • Figure 29: Total footwear market, 2003-13
                                                                    • Figure 30: The footwear market, 2003-13
                                                                  • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                    • Factors used in forecast
                                                                    • Hosiery

                                                                        • Figure 31: Total hosiery market, 2002-12
                                                                        • Figure 32: The hosiery market, 2002-12
                                                                      • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                        • Factors used in forecast
                                                                        • Jeans

                                                                            • Figure 33: Forecast of total jeans market, 2002-12
                                                                            • Figure 34: Forecast of the market for men’s jeans, 2002-12
                                                                            • Figure 35: Forecast of the market for women’s jeans, 2002-12
                                                                            • Figure 36: Forecast of the market for children’s jeans, 2002-12
                                                                            • Figure 37: Total jeans market, 2002-12
                                                                            • Figure 38: Forecast of the men’s jeans market, 2002-12
                                                                            • Figure 39: Forecast of the women’s jeans market, 2002-12
                                                                            • Figure 40: Forecast of the children’s jeans market, 2002-12
                                                                          • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                            • Factors used in forecast
                                                                            • Lingerie

                                                                                • Figure 41: Total lingerie market, 2002-12
                                                                                • Figure 42: The lingerie market, 2002-12
                                                                              • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                • Factors used in forecast
                                                                                • Luggage

                                                                                    • Figure 43: Total luggage market, 2003-13
                                                                                    • Figure 44: Hard suitcase market, 2003-13
                                                                                    • Figure 45: Soft suitcase market, 2003-13
                                                                                    • Figure 46: Holdall market, 2003-13
                                                                                    • Figure 47: Rucksack market, 2003-13
                                                                                    • Figure 48: Laptop bags/briefcase market, 2003-13
                                                                                    • Figure 49: Market size and forecast of UK retail sales of luggage, by type, at current prices, 2003-13
                                                                                    • Figure 50: Market size and forecast of UK retail sales of luggage, by type, at 2008 prices, 2003-13
                                                                                    • Figure 51: Market size and forecast of UK retail sales of luggage, by type, at current prices, 2003-13
                                                                                    • Figure 52: Market size and forecast of UK retail sales of luggage, by type, at 2008 prices, 2003-13
                                                                                  • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                    • Factors used in forecast
                                                                                    • Maternitywear

                                                                                        • Figure 53: Total maternitywear sales, 2002-12
                                                                                        • Figure 54: The maternitywear market, 2003-13
                                                                                      • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                        • Factors used in forecast
                                                                                        • Men’s Outerwear

                                                                                            • Figure 55: Men’s outerwear market, 2002-11
                                                                                            • Figure 56: Men’s outerwear market, 2002-12
                                                                                          • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                            • Factors used in forecast
                                                                                            • Men’s Ties and Accessories

                                                                                                • Figure 57: Total men’s ties and accessories market, 2002-11
                                                                                                • Figure 58: Men’s tie market, 2002-11
                                                                                                • Figure 59: Men’s belt market, 2002-11
                                                                                                • Figure 60: Men’s hat market, 2002-12
                                                                                                • Figure 61: Men’s gloves market, 2002-11
                                                                                                • Figure 62: Men’s scarf market, 2002-11
                                                                                                • Figure 63: The total men’s ties and accessories market, 2002-12
                                                                                                • Figure 64: Men’s ties market, 2002-12
                                                                                                • Figure 65: Men’s belt market, 2002-12
                                                                                                • Figure 66: Men’s hat market, 2002-12
                                                                                                • Figure 67: Men’s gloves market, 2002-12
                                                                                                • Figure 68: Men’s scarves market, 2002-12
                                                                                              • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                • Factors used in forecast
                                                                                                • Men’s Underwear

                                                                                                    • Figure 69: Men’s underwear market, 2003-13
                                                                                                    • Figure 70: Forecast of UK retail sales of men’s underpants, by value and volume, 2003-13, at current and constant 2008 prices
                                                                                                  • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                    • Factors used in forecast
                                                                                                    • Menswear Retailing

                                                                                                        • Figure 71: Total menswear market, 2002-12
                                                                                                        • Figure 72: Forecast of total menswear market, 2002-12
                                                                                                      • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                        • Factors used in forecast
                                                                                                        • Nightwear

                                                                                                            • Figure 73: Total nightwear market, 2003-13
                                                                                                            • Figure 74: The nightwear market, 2003-13
                                                                                                          • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                            • Factors used in forecast
                                                                                                            • Precious Metal Jewellery

                                                                                                                • Figure 75: Total precious metals market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                • Figure 76: The precious metals market, 2003-13
                                                                                                              • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                • Factors used in forecast
                                                                                                                • Retail Store Design

                                                                                                                    • Figure 77: Total UK shopfitting market, 2002-12
                                                                                                                    • Figure 78: The UK shop fitting market, 2002-12
                                                                                                                  • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                    • Factors used in forecast
                                                                                                                    • Size Matters

                                                                                                                        • Figure 79: Total plus size (18+) market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                        • Figure 80: Total petite market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                        • Figure 81: Total tall market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                        • Figure 82: The size matters market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                        • Figure 83: Forecast of plus-size, petite and tall womenswear at current prices, 2003-13
                                                                                                                        • Figure 84: Forecast of plus, petite and tall sizes womenswear at constant 2008 prices, 2003-13
                                                                                                                      • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                        • Factors used in forecast
                                                                                                                        • Sunglasses

                                                                                                                            • Figure 85: The UK sunglasses market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                            • Figure 86: The UK sunglasses market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                          • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                            • Factors used in forecast
                                                                                                                            • Underwear Retailing

                                                                                                                                • Figure 87: Total women’s underwear market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                                • Figure 88: Total men’s underwear market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                                • Figure 89: Total underwear market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                                • Figure 90: Forecast of UK retail sales of adult underwear – men, women and total, at current prices, 2003-13
                                                                                                                                • Figure 91: Forecast of UK retail sales of adult underwear – men, women and total, at current prices, 2003-13
                                                                                                                              • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                                • Factors used in forecast
                                                                                                                                • Value Clothing Retailing

                                                                                                                                    • Figure 92: Total value clothing market, 2002-12
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 93: The value clothing market, at current prices, 2002-12
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 94: The value clothing market, at constant prices, 2002-12
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 95: The value clothing market, at current prices, 2003-12
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 96: The value clothing market, at constant prices, 2003-12
                                                                                                                                  • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                                    • Factors used in forecast
                                                                                                                                    • Watches

                                                                                                                                        • Figure 97: Total watches market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 98: The watches market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                                      • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                                        • Factors used in forecast
                                                                                                                                        • Women’s Accessories

                                                                                                                                            • Figure 99: Women’s accessories market, 2002-12
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 100: The Women’s accessories market, 2002-13
                                                                                                                                          • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                                            • Factors used in forecast
                                                                                                                                            • Womenswear

                                                                                                                                                • Figure 101: Womenswear market, 2002-12
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 102: The womenswear market, 2002-13
                                                                                                                                              • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                                                • Factors used in forecast
                                                                                                                                                • Womenswear Retailing

                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 103: Total womenswear retailing market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 104: The womenswear retailing market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                                                  • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                                                    • Factors used in forecast

                                                                                                                                                    Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                    To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                    Market Re-forecasts - Fashion High Street - UK - March 2009

                                                                                                                                                    £2,000.00 (Excl.Tax)