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Market Re-forecasts - Household - UK - March 2009

Mintel's re-forecasting puts markets in realistic light

In less than nine months, the UK has changed from booming, overheated economy to an economy in crisis. In a fast-developing environment, up-to-date market and consumer data is more critical than ever.

It takes time for changes in macro-economic variables to have an impact on consumer spending. But it is now clear that consumers’ expectations, attitudes and beliefs have changed dramatically in the past six months. As a result, Mintel’s market size estimates and forecasts based on different consumer expectations warrant revision. For the first time in its near-40 years of delivering market and consumer insights, Mintel has conducted an exhaustive mid-cycle re-evaluation of consumer market forecasts published in 2007 & 2008.

The macro-economic changes

Since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, crisis upon crisis has hit the UK financial services sector with several key players having to be rescued from the threat of insolvency. The consequences for the UK economy have been dramatic as the government and markets have reacted to unfolding events. Some of the falls include:

  • interest rates from 5% to 0.5% (Oct. ’08 to Mar ‘09)

  • the sterling/dollar exchange rate from $2 to the pound to $1.45 (Jun. ‘08 to Feb ’09)

  • the sterling/euro exchange rate from 1.25 euros to the pound to a low of 1.01 euros (most of ’08 to Jan. ’09)

  • the retail price index (RPI) from 5% to 0.1% (Sept. ’08 to Jan ’09)

  • the consumer price index (CPI) from over 5% to 3% (Sept. ’08 to Jan ’09 – less dramatic than RPI primarily as it excludes mortgage interest payments and housing depreciation).

The significance of these changes

Mintel has tracked UK consumer expenditure for almost 40 years, including the recessions of the seventies, 1980-81 and 1991-92.

Mintel market size estimates combine historic data trends with the most current consumer data, published data and trade insight. Using a range of economic variables, primarily consumer-related, such as consumer expenditure, personal disposable income and the consumer price index, we have re-estimated and re-forecast the market data in more than 300 of our UK reports.

This work will enable us to understand better which sectors are suffering most in the current economic crisis. How are consumers likely to spend their incomes in the coming years? Which sectors will suffer and benefit most? How should suppliers react in the short-, medium- and long-term?

The worst impact of recession is skewed towards certain sectors where big ticket, discretionary purchases are the norm: automotive; any sector where there is a close correlation with house purchasing (eg brown & white goods, floor coverings), technology and travel. But within each sector, there are winners and losers. Are car-buyers switching from new to used cars? Is the after-sales market benefiting as car owners delay purchases? When will an upturn take place?

Are consumers trading up to better quality products, trading down, or trading over? Each segment of each sector has to be analysed separately and in comparison with others.

Presentation of data

Mintel’s revised data is presented in an easy-to-use manner:

  • relevant commentary about the sector, with discussion of pertinent changes in the sector and an overall assessment of the current state of the market

  • a chart of the previous estimates and forecasts for a sector alongside the revised data

  • tables for the period 2002-2012 or 2003-2013, incorporating

  • previous and revised estimates & forecasts at current prices

  • the absolute value of the change to the market forecast

  • index numbers to show percentage changes

  • In most cases, we have added a further paragraph bringing to the attention of users of a scenario based on a more pessimistic forecast of economic circumstances in 2009. This is based on February ONS (Office of National Statistics) data. This should be seen as indicative of the impact of further economic decline: a worse case (but not worst case) scenario.

What next?

Aggregated and revised data, including forecasts to 2014 will be published in British Lifestyles 2009: consumers in crisis at the beginning of April 2009.

A further review of the changes in the markets surveyed by Mintel, consumers’ expenditure plans, and economic forecasts will take place July 2009 and, if necessary, a further set of revised forecasts with commentary will be published in July 2009.

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Table of contents

  1. Key Findings

    • Household
    • Introduction

      • Mintel’s re-forecasting puts markets in realistic light
        • The macro-economic changes
          • The significance of these changes
            • Presentation of data
              • What next?
                • Methodology
                  • Differences
                  • Bathroom Furniture and Accessories August 2007

                      • Figure 1: UK retail sales of bathroom furniture and accessories, 2002-12
                      • Figure 2: UK retail sales of bathroom furniture and accessories, 2002-12
                      • Figure 3: UK retail sales of bathroom furniture, 2002-12
                      • Figure 4: UK retail sales of bathroom furniture, 2002-12
                      • Figure 5: UK retail sales of bathroom accessories, 2002-12
                      • Figure 6: UK retail sales of bathroom accessories, 2002-12
                    • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                      • Factors used in the forecast
                      • Batteries

                          • Figure 7: UK consumer retail sales of dry-cell batteries (including rechargeables) by volume 2003-13
                          • Figure 8: UK consumer retail sales of dry-cell batteries, by value, 2003-13
                        • Factors used in forecast
                        • Bedroom Furniture

                            • Figure 9: UK retail sales of bedroom furniture, excluding beds and mattresses, 2002-12
                            • Figure 10: UK retail sales of bedroom furniture, excluding beds and mattresses, 2002-12
                            • Figure 11: UK retail sales of beds and mattresses, 2002-12
                            • Figure 12: UK retail sales of beds and mattresses, 2002-12
                          • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                            • Factors used in the forecast
                            • Carpets and Floorcoverings

                                • Figure 13: Total retail value sales of carpets and smooth floorcoverings, 2003-13
                                • Figure 14: Total retail value sales of carpets and smooth floorcoverings, 2003-13
                              • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                • Factors used in the forecast
                                • China and Earthenware

                                    • Figure 15: UK retail sales of china and earthenware, 2003-13
                                    • Figure 16: UK retail sales of china and earthenware, 2003-13
                                  • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                    • Factors used in the forecast
                                    • Cookware

                                        • Figure 17: UK market for cookware, 2003-13
                                        • Figure 18: UK market for cookware, 2003-13
                                      • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                        • Factors used in the forecast
                                        • Dining Room Furniture

                                            • Figure 19: UK retail sales of dining room furniture, 2002-12
                                            • Figure 20: UK retail sales of dining room furniture, 2002-12
                                          • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                            • Factors used in the forecast
                                            • DIY Retailing

                                                • Figure 21: UK DIY retailer sales (excluding VAT), 2002-12
                                                • Figure 22: UK DIY retailer sales (excluding VAT), 2002-12
                                              • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                              • DIY Review

                                                  • Figure 23: UK DIY retailer sales, 2003-13
                                                  • Figure 24: UK DIY retailer sales, 2002-12
                                                • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                • Electrical Retailing

                                                    • Figure 25: UK electrical specialists’ sales, 2003-12
                                                    • Figure 26: UK electrical specialists’ and photographic and optical sales, 2003-13
                                                • Fridges and Freezers

                                                    • Figure 27: Total refrigeration and freezer appliances market, 2001-11
                                                    • Figure 28: Total refrigeration and freezer appliances market, 2001-11
                                                    • Figure 29: Fridge-freezers market, 2001-11
                                                    • Figure 30: Fridge-freezers market, 2001-11
                                                    • Figure 31: Fridges market, 2001-11
                                                    • Figure 32: Fridges market, 2001-11
                                                    • Figure 33: Freezers market, 2001-11
                                                    • Figure 34: Freezers market, 2001-11
                                                  • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                    • Factors used in the forecast
                                                    • Furniture Retailing

                                                        • Figure 35: UK retail sales through furniture and carpet specialists, 2002-12
                                                        • Figure 36: UK retail sales through furniture and carpet specialists, 2002-12
                                                        • Figure 37: UK retail sales through furniture specialists, 2002-12
                                                        • Figure 38: UK retail sales through furniture specialists, 2002-12
                                                        • Figure 39: UK retail sales through carpet specialists, 2002-12
                                                        • Figure 40: UK retail sales through carpet specialists, 2002-12
                                                      • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                      • Garden Products Retailing

                                                          • Figure 41: Estimated household spend on garden products, 2003-13
                                                          • Figure 42: Estimated household spend on garden products, 2003-13
                                                        • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                          • Factors used in the forecast
                                                          • Gardening Review

                                                              • Figure 43: Estimated household spend on garden products, 2002-12
                                                              • Figure 44: Estimated household spend on garden products, 2002-12
                                                            • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                              • Factors used in the forecast
                                                              • Gas and Electric Cookers

                                                                  • Figure 45: UK retail sales of gas and electric cookers, 2002-12
                                                                  • Figure 46: UK retail sales of gas and electric cookers, 2002-12
                                                                • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                  • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                  • Glassware

                                                                      • Figure 47: UK retail sales of glassware, 2002-12
                                                                      • Figure 48: UK retail sales of glassware, 2002-12
                                                                    • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                      • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                      • Greetings Cards

                                                                          • Figure 49: Size and forecast of the greetings cards market, 2002-12
                                                                          • Figure 50: Size and forecast of the greetings cards market, 2002-12
                                                                        • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                          • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                          • Home Office Furniture

                                                                              • Figure 51: UK home office furniture market, 2002-12
                                                                              • Figure 52: UK home office furniture market, 2001-11
                                                                            • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                              • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                              • Household Linens

                                                                                  • Figure 53: UK value sales of household linens, 2002-12
                                                                                  • Figure 54: UK value sales of household linens, 2002-12
                                                                                  • Figure 55: UK value sales of bed products, 2002-12
                                                                                  • Figure 56: UK value sales of bed products, 2002-12
                                                                                  • Figure 57: UK value sales of bathroom textiles, 2002-12
                                                                                  • Figure 58: UK value sales of bathroom textiles, 2002-12
                                                                                  • Figure 59: UK value sales of other linens, 2002-12
                                                                                  • Figure 60: UK value sales of other linens, 2002-12
                                                                                • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                  • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                  • Household Paper Products

                                                                                      • Figure 61: UK retail sales of household paper products*, 2003-13
                                                                                      • Figure 62: UK retail sales of household paper products*, 2003-13
                                                                                    • Toilet tissue
                                                                                      • Figure 63: UK retail sales of toilet tissues, 2003-13
                                                                                      • Figure 64: UK retail sales of toilet tissue, 2003-13
                                                                                    • Kitchen towels
                                                                                      • Figure 65: UK retail sales of kitchen towels, 2003-13
                                                                                      • Figure 66: UK retail sales of kitchen towels, 2003-13
                                                                                    • Facial tissues
                                                                                      • Figure 67: UK retail sales of facial tissues, 2003-13
                                                                                      • Figure 68: UK retail sales of facial tissues, 2003-13
                                                                                    • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                      • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                      • Houseplants and Cut Flowers

                                                                                          • Figure 69: UK retail sales of cut flowers and houseplants, 2003-13
                                                                                          • Figure 70: UK retail sales of cut flowers and houseplants, 2003-13
                                                                                          • Figure 71: UK retail sales of cut flowers, 2003-13
                                                                                          • Figure 72: UK retail sales of cut flowers, 2003-13
                                                                                          • Figure 73: UK retail sales of houseplants, 2003-13
                                                                                          • Figure 74: UK retail sales of houseplants, 2003-13
                                                                                        • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                          • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                          • Housewares Retailing

                                                                                              • Figure 75: UK market size and forecast for household textiles, 2002-12
                                                                                              • Figure 76: UK market size and forecast for household texiles, 2002-12
                                                                                              • Figure 77: UK market size and forecast for glasswares, tablewares and household utensils, 2002-12
                                                                                              • Figure 78: UK market size and forecast for glasswares, tablewares and household utensils, 2002-12
                                                                                            • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                              • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                              • Irons

                                                                                                  • Figure 79: Market size and forecast of the irons market, 2002-12
                                                                                                  • Figure 80: Market size and forecast of the irons market, 2002-12
                                                                                                • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                  • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                                  • Kitchen Furniture

                                                                                                      • Figure 81: UK retail sales of kitchen furniture, 2002-12
                                                                                                      • Figure 82: UK retail sales of kitchen furniture, 2002-12
                                                                                                    • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                      • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                                      • Laundry and Dishwasher Appliances

                                                                                                          • Figure 83: UK market for laundry and dishwasher appliances, 2002-12
                                                                                                          • Figure 84: UK market for laundry and dishwasher appliances, 2002-12
                                                                                                          • Figure 85: UK market for washing machines, 2002-12
                                                                                                          • Figure 86: UK market for washing machines, 2002-12
                                                                                                          • Figure 87: UK market for clothes dryers, 2002-12
                                                                                                          • Figure 88: UK market for clothes dryers, 2002-12
                                                                                                          • Figure 89: UK market for dishwashers, 2002-12
                                                                                                          • Figure 90: UK market for dishwashers, 2002-12
                                                                                                        • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                          • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                                          • Living Room Furniture

                                                                                                              • Figure 91: UK retail sales of living room furniture, 2002-12
                                                                                                              • Figure 92: UK retail sales of living room furniture, 2002-12
                                                                                                            • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                              • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                                              • Microwaves

                                                                                                                  • Figure 93: Market size and forecast of the microwaves market, 2002-12
                                                                                                                  • Figure 94: Market size and forecast of the microwaves market, 2002-12
                                                                                                                • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                  • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                                                  • Small Kitchen Appliances – Food Preparation

                                                                                                                      • Figure 95: Market size of small kitchen appliances for food preparation, 2001-11
                                                                                                                      • Figure 96: Market size of small kitchen appliances for food preparation, 2001-11
                                                                                                                    • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                      • Factors incorporated in the forecast
                                                                                                                      • Small Kitchen Appliances – Table-Top Cooking

                                                                                                                          • Figure 97: Market size of table-top appliances, 2001-11
                                                                                                                          • Figure 98: Market size of table-top appliances, 2001-11
                                                                                                                        • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                          • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                                                          • Toys and Games

                                                                                                                              • Figure 99: UK sales of toys and games, 2003-13
                                                                                                                              • Figure 100: UK sales of toys and games, 2003-13
                                                                                                                            • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                              • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                                                              • Vacuum Cleaners

                                                                                                                                  • Figure 101: Retail sales of vacuum cleaners in the UK, 2003-13
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 102: Retail sales of vacuum cleaners in the UK, 2003-13
                                                                                                                                • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                                  • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                                                                  • Window Furnishings and Accessories

                                                                                                                                      • Figure 103: Market size for window furnishings and accessories, 2001-11
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 104: Market size for window furnishings and accessories, 2001-11
                                                                                                                                    • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                                      • Factors used in the forecast

                                                                                                                                      Companies Covered

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                                                                                                                                      Market Re-forecasts - Household - UK - March 2009

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