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Market Re-forecasts - Leisure Pursuits - UK - March 2009

Mintel's re-forecasting puts markets in realistic light

In less than nine months, the UK has changed from booming, overheated economy to an economy in crisis. In a fast-developing environment, up-to-date market and consumer data is more critical than ever.

It takes time for changes in macro-economic variables to have an impact on consumer spending. But it is now clear that consumers’ expectations, attitudes and beliefs have changed dramatically in the past six months. As a result, Mintel’s market size estimates and forecasts based on different consumer expectations warrant revision. For the first time in its near-40 years of delivering market and consumer insights, Mintel has conducted an exhaustive mid-cycle re-evaluation of consumer market forecasts published in 2007 & 2008.

The macro-economic changes

Since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, crisis upon crisis has hit the UK financial services sector with several key players having to be rescued from the threat of insolvency. The consequences for the UK economy have been dramatic as the government and markets have reacted to unfolding events. Some of the falls include:

  • interest rates from 5% to 0.5% (Oct. ’08 to Mar ‘09)

  • the sterling/dollar exchange rate from $2 to the pound to $1.45 (Jun. ‘08 to Feb ’09)

  • the sterling/euro exchange rate from 1.25 euros to the pound to a low of 1.01 euros (most of ’08 to Jan. ’09)

  • the retail price index (RPI) from 5% to 0.1% (Sept. ’08 to Jan ’09)

  • the consumer price index (CPI) from over 5% to 3% (Sept. ’08 to Jan ’09 – less dramatic than RPI primarily as it excludes mortgage interest payments and housing depreciation).

The significance of these changes

Mintel has tracked UK consumer expenditure for almost 40 years, including the recessions of the seventies, 1980-81 and 1991-92.

Mintel market size estimates combine historic data trends with the most current consumer data, published data and trade insight. Using a range of economic variables, primarily consumer-related, such as consumer expenditure, personal disposable income and the consumer price index, we have re-estimated and re-forecast the market data in more than 300 of our UK reports.

This work will enable us to understand better which sectors are suffering most in the current economic crisis. How are consumers likely to spend their incomes in the coming years? Which sectors will suffer and benefit most? How should suppliers react in the short-, medium- and long-term?

The worst impact of recession is skewed towards certain sectors where big ticket, discretionary purchases are the norm: automotive; any sector where there is a close correlation with house purchasing (eg brown & white goods, floor coverings), technology and travel. But within each sector, there are winners and losers. Are car-buyers switching from new to used cars? Is the after-sales market benefiting as car owners delay purchases? When will an upturn take place?

Are consumers trading up to better quality products, trading down, or trading over? Each segment of each sector has to be analysed separately and in comparison with others.

Presentation of data

Mintel’s revised data is presented in an easy-to-use manner:

  • relevant commentary about the sector, with discussion of pertinent changes in the sector and an overall assessment of the current state of the market

  • a chart of the previous estimates and forecasts for a sector alongside the revised data

  • tables for the period 2002-2012 or 2003-2013, incorporating

  • previous and revised estimates & forecasts at current prices

  • the absolute value of the change to the market forecast

  • index numbers to show percentage changes

  • In most cases, we have added a further paragraph bringing to the attention of users of a scenario based on a more pessimistic forecast of economic circumstances in 2009. This is based on February ONS (Office of National Statistics) data. This should be seen as indicative of the impact of further economic decline: a worse case (but not worst case) scenario.

What next?

Aggregated and revised data, including forecasts to 2014 will be published in British Lifestyles 2009: consumers in crisis at the beginning of April 2009.

A further review of the changes in the markets surveyed by Mintel, consumers’ expenditure plans, and economic forecasts will take place July 2009 and, if necessary, a further set of revised forecasts with commentary will be published in July 2009.

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

    • Mintel’s re-forecasting puts markets in realistic light
      • The macro-economic changes
        • The significance of these changes
          • Presentation of data
            • What next?
              • Methodology
                • Differences
                • Betting Shops

                    • Figure 1: Expenditure in UK betting shops, 2002-12
                    • Figure 2: Expenditure in UK betting shops, 2002-12
                  • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                    • Factors used in the forecast
                    • Bingo

                          • Figure 3: Bingo admissions, 2002-12
                          • Figure 4: Bingo admissions, 2002-12
                          • Figure 5: Bingo club turnover, 2002-12
                          • Figure 6: Bingo club turnover, 2002-12
                        • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                          • Factors used in the forecast
                          • Broadcast Sponsorship

                              • Figure 7: Estimates and forecast of expenditure on UK television programme sponsorship, 2002-12
                              • Figure 8: Estimates and forecast of expenditure on UK television programme sponsorship, 2002-12
                              • Figure 9: Trends and forecasts in expenditure on radio programme sponsorship and promotions by UK companies, 2002-12
                              • Figure 10: Trends and forecasts in expenditure on radio programme sponsorship and promotions by UK companies, 2002-12
                            • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                              • Factors incorporated in the forecast
                              • Casinos (including Online)

                                  • Figure 11: Total expenditure in UK casinos, 2003-13
                                  • Figure 12: Total expenditure in UK casinos, 2003-13
                                • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                  • Factors used in the forecast
                                  • Cinemas

                                      • Figure 13: UK cinema market, by admissions, 2003-13
                                      • Figure 14: UK cinema market, by admissions, 2003-13
                                      • Figure 15: UK cinema market, by value*, 2003-13
                                      • Figure 16: UK cinema market, by value*, 2003-13
                                    • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                      • Factors used in the forecast
                                      • DIY Review

                                          • Figure 17: UK DIY retailer sales, 2003-13
                                          • Figure 18: UK DIY retailer sales, 2002-12
                                        • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                        • Dog and Horse Racing

                                            • Figure 19: Consumer expenditure on dog and horse racing, on-course only, 2002-12
                                            • Figure 20: Consumer expenditure on dog and horse racing, on-course only, 2002-12
                                          • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                            • Factors used in the forecast
                                            • Experience Days Out

                                                • Figure 21: Estimated value of the experience days out market, 2001-11
                                                • Figure 22: Estimated value of the experience days out market, 2001-11
                                                • Figure 23: Estimated volume of the experience days out market (number of days out taken), 2001-11
                                                • Figure 24: Estimated volume of the experience days out market (number of days out taken), 2001-11
                                              • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                              • Fitness Classes

                                                    • Figure 25: Consumer expenditure on fitness classes, 2002-12
                                                    • Figure 26: Consumer expenditure on fitness classes, 2002-12
                                                  • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                    • Factors incorporated in the forecast
                                                    • The Football Business

                                                        • Figure 27: Attendances of English professional football clubs, 2003/04-2013/14
                                                        • Figure 28: Attendances of English professional football clubs, 2003/04-2013/14
                                                        • Figure 29: Income of English professional football clubs, 2003/04-2013/14
                                                        • Figure 30: Income of English professional football clubs, 2003/04-2013/14
                                                      • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                        • Factors used in forecast
                                                        • Gaming Machines

                                                            • Figure 31: UK gaming machines installed base, 2003-13
                                                            • Figure 32: UK gaming machines installed base, 2003-13
                                                            • Figure 33: UK gaming machines net expenditure, 2003-13
                                                            • Figure 34: UK gaming machines net expenditure, 2003-13
                                                            • Figure 35: UK gaming machines new injections, 2003-13
                                                            • Figure 36: UK gaming machines new injections, 2003-13
                                                          • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                            • Factors used in the forecast
                                                            • Gardening Review

                                                                • Figure 37: Estimated household spend on garden products, 2002-12
                                                                • Figure 38: Estimated household spend on garden products, 2002-12
                                                              • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                • Golf

                                                                    • All golfers
                                                                      • Figure 39: Total number of adult golfers in Great Britain, 2001-11
                                                                      • Figure 40: Total number of adult golfers in Great Britain, 2001-11
                                                                    • Regular golfers
                                                                      • Figure 41: Number of regular adult golfers in Great Britain, 2001-11
                                                                      • Figure 42: Number of regular adult golfers in Great Britain, 2001-11
                                                                    • Occasional golfers
                                                                      • Figure 43: Number of occasional adult golfers in Great Britain, 2001-11
                                                                      • Figure 44: Number of occasional adult golfers in Great Britain, 2001-11
                                                                    • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                      • Factors incorporated in the forecast
                                                                      • Health and Beauty Treatments

                                                                          • Figure 45: UK health and beauty treatments market size, 2001-11
                                                                          • Figure 46: UK health and beauty treatments market size, 2001-11
                                                                        • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                          • Factors used in forecast
                                                                          • Health and Fitness Clubs

                                                                              • Figure 47: Membership numbers of UK health and fitness clubs, 2002-12
                                                                              • Figure 48: Membership numbers of UK health and fitness clubs, 2002-12
                                                                              • Figure 49: Revenues of UK health and fitness clubs, 2002-12
                                                                              • Figure 50: Revenues of UK health and fitness clubs, 2002-12
                                                                            • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                              • Factors incorporated in the forecast
                                                                              • High Street Pubs and Bars

                                                                                  • Figure 51: UK original and re-forecast retail sales of high street pubs and bars, by value, 2003-13
                                                                                  • Figure 52: UK original and re-forecast retail sales of high street pubs and bars, by value, 2003-13
                                                                                • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                  • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                  • Historic and Cultural Visitor Attractions

                                                                                      • Figure 53: Average visits per UK historical and cultural attraction, 2003-13
                                                                                      • Figure 54: Average visits per UK historical and cultural attraction, 2003-13
                                                                                    • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                      • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                      • Independent Pubs

                                                                                          • Figure 55: UK independent pub market, by turnover, 2002-12
                                                                                          • Figure 56: UK independent pub market by turnover, 2002-12
                                                                                          • Figure 57: UK Independent pub outlets, 2002-12
                                                                                          • Figure 58: UK Independent pub outlets, 2002-12
                                                                                        • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                          • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                          • Leisure Centres and Swimming Pools

                                                                                              • Figure 59: The UK leisure centres and swimming pools market, by admissions, 2003-13
                                                                                              • Figure 60: The UK leisure centres and swimming pools market, by admissions, 2003-13
                                                                                              • Figure 61: The UK leisure centres and swimming pools market, by value, 2003-13
                                                                                              • Figure 62: The UK leisure centres and swimming pools market, by value, 2003-13
                                                                                            • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                              • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                              • Music Concerts and Festivals

                                                                                                  • Figure 63: Estimated numbers of concert goers in the UK, 2003-13
                                                                                                  • Figure 64: Estimated numbers of concert goers in the UK, 2003-13
                                                                                                  • Figure 65: Estimated numbers of pop/rock concert goers in the UK, 2003-13
                                                                                                  • Figure 66: Estimated numbers of pop/rock concert goers in the UK, 2003-13
                                                                                                  • Figure 67: Estimated numbers of classical concert goers in the UK, 2003-13
                                                                                                  • Figure 68: Estimated numbers of classical concert goers in the UK, 2003-13
                                                                                                  • Figure 69: Estimated numbers of jazz concert goers in the UK, 2003-13
                                                                                                  • Figure 70: Estimated numbers of jazz concert goers in the UK, 2003-13
                                                                                                  • Figure 71: Estimated numbers of opera concert goers in the UK, 2003-13
                                                                                                  • Figure 72: Estimated numbers of opera concert goers in the UK, 2003-13
                                                                                                • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                  • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                                  • Nightclubs

                                                                                                        • Figure 73: Trends in nightclub admissions, 2003-13
                                                                                                        • Figure 74: Trends in nightclub admissions, 2003-13
                                                                                                        • Figure 75: Trends in nightclub turnover, 2003-13
                                                                                                        • Figure 76: Trends in nightclub turnover, 2003-13
                                                                                                      • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                        • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                                        • Performing Arts

                                                                                                            • Figure 77: Trends in theatre admissions in central London, 2003-13
                                                                                                            • Figure 78: Trends in theatre admissions in central London, 2003-13
                                                                                                            • Figure 79: Trends in theatre box office revenue in central London, 2003-13
                                                                                                            • Figure 80: Trends in theatre box office revenue in central London, 2003-13
                                                                                                          • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                            • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                                            • Pub Visiting

                                                                                                                • Figure 81: Total pub market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                • Figure 82: Total pub market, 2003-13
                                                                                                              • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                                                • Radio

                                                                                                                    • Figure 83: Radio listening, Quarter 3, 2002-12
                                                                                                                    • Figure 84: Radio listening, Quarter 3, 2002-12
                                                                                                                  • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                                                  • Satellite and Cable TV

                                                                                                                        • Figure 85: Trends in take-up of satellite and cable TV in the UK, 2002-12
                                                                                                                        • Figure 86: Trends in take-up of satellite and cable TV in the UK, 2002-12
                                                                                                                      • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                        • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                                                        • Sports Participation

                                                                                                                              • Figure 87: Estimated consumer expenditure on sports participation, 2002-12
                                                                                                                              • Figure 88: Estimated consumer expenditure on sports participation, 2002-12
                                                                                                                            • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                              • Factors incorporated in the forecast
                                                                                                                              • Tenpin Bowling

                                                                                                                                    • Figure 89: The tenpin bowling market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 90: The tenpin bowling market, 2003-13
                                                                                                                                  • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                                    • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                                                                    • The Lottery

                                                                                                                                        • Figure 91: National Lottery sales trends and forecast, 2002/03-2012/13
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 92: National Lottery sales trends and forecast, 2002/03-2012/13
                                                                                                                                      • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                                        • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                                                                        • Theme Parks

                                                                                                                                              • Figure 93: UK theme parks market, by admissions, 2002-12
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 94: UK theme parks market, by admissions, 2002-12
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 95: UK theme parks market, by value, 2002-12
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 96: UK theme parks market, by value, 2002-12
                                                                                                                                            • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                                              • Factors used in the forecast

                                                                                                                                              Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                              To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                              Market Re-forecasts - Leisure Pursuits - UK - March 2009

                                                                                                                                              £1,500.00 (Excl.Tax)