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Market Re-forecasts - Leisure - UK - March 2009

Mintel's re-forecasting puts markets in realistic light

In less than nine months, the UK has changed from booming, overheated economy to an economy in crisis. In a fast-developing environment, up-to-date market and consumer data is more critical than ever.

It takes time for changes in macro-economic variables to have an impact on consumer spending. But it is now clear that consumers’ expectations, attitudes and beliefs have changed dramatically in the past six months. As a result, Mintel’s market size estimates and forecasts based on different consumer expectations warrant revision. For the first time in its near-40 years of delivering market and consumer insights, Mintel has conducted an exhaustive mid-cycle re-evaluation of consumer market forecasts published in 2007 & 2008.

The macro-economic changes

Since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, crisis upon crisis has hit the UK financial services sector with several key players having to be rescued from the threat of insolvency. The consequences for the UK economy have been dramatic as the government and markets have reacted to unfolding events. Some of the falls include:

  • interest rates from 5% to 0.5% (Oct. ’08 to Mar ‘09)

  • the sterling/dollar exchange rate from $2 to the pound to $1.45 (Jun. ‘08 to Feb ’09)

  • the sterling/euro exchange rate from 1.25 euros to the pound to a low of 1.01 euros (most of ’08 to Jan. ’09)

  • the retail price index (RPI) from 5% to 0.1% (Sept. ’08 to Jan ’09)

  • the consumer price index (CPI) from over 5% to 3% (Sept. ’08 to Jan ’09 – less dramatic than RPI primarily as it excludes mortgage interest payments and housing depreciation).

The significance of these changes

Mintel has tracked UK consumer expenditure for almost 40 years, including the recessions of the seventies, 1980-81 and 1991-92.

Mintel market size estimates combine historic data trends with the most current consumer data, published data and trade insight. Using a range of economic variables, primarily consumer-related, such as consumer expenditure, personal disposable income and the consumer price index, we have re-estimated and re-forecast the market data in more than 300 of our UK reports.

This work will enable us to understand better which sectors are suffering most in the current economic crisis. How are consumers likely to spend their incomes in the coming years? Which sectors will suffer and benefit most? How should suppliers react in the short-, medium- and long-term?

The worst impact of recession is skewed towards certain sectors where big ticket, discretionary purchases are the norm: automotive; any sector where there is a close correlation with house purchasing (eg brown & white goods, floor coverings), technology and travel. But within each sector, there are winners and losers. Are car-buyers switching from new to used cars? Is the after-sales market benefiting as car owners delay purchases? When will an upturn take place?

Are consumers trading up to better quality products, trading down, or trading over? Each segment of each sector has to be analysed separately and in comparison with others.

Presentation of data

Mintel’s revised data is presented in an easy-to-use manner:

  • relevant commentary about the sector, with discussion of pertinent changes in the sector and an overall assessment of the current state of the market

  • a chart of the previous estimates and forecasts for a sector alongside the revised data

  • tables for the period 2002-2012 or 2003-2013, incorporating

  • previous and revised estimates & forecasts at current prices

  • the absolute value of the change to the market forecast

  • index numbers to show percentage changes

  • In most cases, we have added a further paragraph bringing to the attention of users of a scenario based on a more pessimistic forecast of economic circumstances in 2009. This is based on February ONS (Office of National Statistics) data. This should be seen as indicative of the impact of further economic decline: a worse case (but not worst case) scenario.

What next?

Aggregated and revised data, including forecasts to 2014 will be published in British Lifestyles 2009: consumers in crisis at the beginning of April 2009.

A further review of the changes in the markets surveyed by Mintel, consumers’ expenditure plans, and economic forecasts will take place July 2009 and, if necessary, a further set of revised forecasts with commentary will be published in July 2009.

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Table of contents

  1. Key Findings

    • Leisure
    • Introduction

      • Mintel’s re-forecasting puts markets in realistic light
        • The macro-economic changes
          • The significance of these changes
            • Presentation of data
              • What next?
                • Methodology
                  • Differences
                  • Betting Shops

                      • Figure 1: Expenditure in UK betting shops, 2002-12
                      • Figure 2: Expenditure in UK betting shops, 2002-12
                    • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                      • Factors used in the forecast
                      • Bicycles

                            • Figure 3: Forecast of UK volume of bicycle sales, 2002-12 (millions of units)
                            • Figure 4: Forecast of UK value of bicycle sales, at current 2008 prices, 2003-12
                          • Factors used in forecast
                            • Figure 5: Forecast of UK value of bicycle sales, at current 2008 prices, 2002-12
                          • Factors used in this forecast
                          • Bingo

                                • Figure 6: Bingo admissions, 2002-12
                                • Figure 7: Bingo admissions, 2002-12
                                • Figure 8: Bingo club turnover, 2002-12
                                • Figure 9: Bingo club turnover, 2002-12
                              • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                • Factors used in the forecast
                                • Casinos (including Online)

                                    • Figure 10: Total expenditure in UK casinos, 2003-13
                                    • Figure 11: Total expenditure in UK casinos, 2003-13
                                  • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                    • Factors used in the forecast
                                    • Cinemas

                                        • Figure 12: UK cinema market, by admissions, 2003-13
                                        • Figure 13: UK cinema market, by admissions, 2003-13
                                        • Figure 14: UK cinema market, by value*, 2003-13
                                        • Figure 15: UK cinema market, by value*, 2003-13
                                      • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                        • Factors used in the forecast
                                        • Dog and Horse Racing

                                            • Figure 16: Consumer expenditure on dog and horse racing, on-course only, 2002-12
                                            • Figure 17: Consumer expenditure on dog and horse racing, on-course only, 2002-12
                                          • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                            • Factors used in the forecast
                                            • Experience Days Out

                                                • Figure 18: Estimated value of the experience days out market, 2001-11
                                                • Figure 19: Estimated value of the experience days out market, 2001-11
                                                • Figure 20: Estimated volume of the experience days out market (number of days out taken), 2001-11
                                                • Figure 21: Estimated volume of the experience days out market (number of days out taken), 2001-11
                                              • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                              • Fitness Classes

                                                    • Figure 22: Consumer expenditure on fitness classes, 2002-12
                                                    • Figure 23: Consumer expenditure on fitness classes, 2002-12
                                                  • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                    • Factors incorporated in the forecast
                                                    • The Football Business

                                                        • Figure 24: Attendances of English professional football clubs, 2003/04-2013/14
                                                        • Figure 25: Attendances of English professional football clubs, 2003/04-2013/14
                                                        • Figure 26: Income of English professional football clubs, 2003/04-2013/14
                                                        • Figure 27: Income of English professional football clubs, 2003/04-2013/14
                                                      • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                        • Factors used in forecast
                                                        • Gaming Machines

                                                            • Figure 28: UK gaming machines installed base, 2003-13
                                                            • Figure 29: UK gaming machines installed base, 2003-13
                                                            • Figure 30: UK gaming machines net expenditure, 2003-13
                                                            • Figure 31: UK gaming machines net expenditure, 2003-13
                                                            • Figure 32: UK gaming machines new injections, 2003-13
                                                            • Figure 33: UK gaming machines new injections, 2003-13
                                                          • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                            • Factors used in the forecast
                                                            • Golf

                                                                • All golfers
                                                                  • Figure 34: Total number of adult golfers in Great Britain, 2001-11
                                                                  • Figure 35: Total number of adult golfers in Great Britain, 2001-11
                                                                • Regular golfers
                                                                  • Figure 36: Number of regular adult golfers in Great Britain, 2001-11
                                                                  • Figure 37: Number of regular adult golfers in Great Britain, 2001-11
                                                                • Occasional golfers
                                                                  • Figure 38: Number of occasional adult golfers in Great Britain, 2001-11
                                                                  • Figure 39: Number of occasional adult golfers in Great Britain, 2001-11
                                                                • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                  • Factors incorporated in the forecast
                                                                  • Health and Fitness Clubs

                                                                      • Figure 40: Membership numbers of UK health and fitness clubs, 2002-12
                                                                      • Figure 41: Membership numbers of UK health and fitness clubs, 2002-12
                                                                      • Figure 42: Revenues of UK health and fitness clubs, 2002-12
                                                                      • Figure 43: Revenues of UK health and fitness clubs, 2002-12
                                                                    • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                      • Factors incorporated in the forecast
                                                                      • Historic and Cultural Visitor Attractions

                                                                          • Figure 44: Average visits per UK historical and cultural attraction, 2003-13
                                                                          • Figure 45: Average visits per UK historical and cultural attraction, 2003-13
                                                                        • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                          • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                          • Leisure Centres and Swimming Pools

                                                                              • Figure 46: The UK leisure centres and swimming pools market, by admissions, 2003-13
                                                                              • Figure 47: The UK leisure centres and swimming pools market, by admissions, 2003-13
                                                                              • Figure 48: The UK leisure centres and swimming pools market, by value, 2003-13
                                                                              • Figure 49: The UK leisure centres and swimming pools market, by value, 2003-13
                                                                            • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                              • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                              • Music Concerts and Festivals

                                                                                  • Figure 50: Estimated numbers of concert goers in the UK, 2003-13
                                                                                  • Figure 51: Estimated numbers of concert goers in the UK, 2003-13
                                                                                  • Figure 52: Estimated numbers of pop/rock concert goers in the UK, 2003-13
                                                                                  • Figure 53: Estimated numbers of pop/rock concert goers in the UK, 2003-13
                                                                                  • Figure 54: Estimated numbers of classical concert goers in the UK, 2003-13
                                                                                  • Figure 55: Estimated numbers of classical concert goers in the UK, 2003-13
                                                                                  • Figure 56: Estimated numbers of jazz concert goers in the UK, 2003-13
                                                                                  • Figure 57: Estimated numbers of jazz concert goers in the UK, 2003-13
                                                                                  • Figure 58: Estimated numbers of opera concert goers in the UK, 2003-13
                                                                                  • Figure 59: Estimated numbers of opera concert goers in the UK, 2003-13
                                                                                • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                  • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                  • Nightclubs

                                                                                        • Figure 60: Trends in nightclub admissions, 2003-13
                                                                                        • Figure 61: Trends in nightclub admissions, 2003-13
                                                                                        • Figure 62: Trends in nightclub turnover, 2003-13
                                                                                        • Figure 63: Trends in nightclub turnover, 2003-13
                                                                                      • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                        • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                        • Performing Arts

                                                                                            • Figure 64: Trends in theatre admissions in central London, 2003-13
                                                                                            • Figure 65: Trends in theatre admissions in central London, 2003-13
                                                                                            • Figure 66: Trends in theatre box office revenue in central London, 2003-13
                                                                                            • Figure 67: Trends in theatre box office revenue in central London, 2003-13
                                                                                          • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                            • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                            • Sports Goods Retailing

                                                                                                • Figure 68: UK consumer expenditure on sports goods, 2003-13
                                                                                                • Figure 69: UK consumer expenditure on sports goods, 2003-13
                                                                                              • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                                • Sports Participation

                                                                                                      • Figure 70: Estimated consumer expenditure on sports participation, 2002-12
                                                                                                      • Figure 71: Estimated consumer expenditure on sports participation, 2002-12
                                                                                                    • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                      • Factors incorporated in the forecast
                                                                                                      • Tenpin Bowling

                                                                                                            • Figure 72: The tenpin bowling market, 2003-13
                                                                                                            • Figure 73: The tenpin bowling market, 2003-13
                                                                                                          • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                            • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                                            • The Lottery

                                                                                                                • Figure 74: National Lottery sales trends and forecast, 2002/03-2012/13
                                                                                                                • Figure 75: National Lottery sales trends and forecast, 2002/03-2012/13
                                                                                                              • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                                                • Theme Parks

                                                                                                                      • Figure 76: UK theme parks market, by admissions, 2002-12
                                                                                                                      • Figure 77: UK theme parks market, by admissions, 2002-12
                                                                                                                      • Figure 78: UK theme parks market, by value, 2002-12
                                                                                                                      • Figure 79: UK theme parks market, by value, 2002-12
                                                                                                                    • Impact of the latest macro-economic data
                                                                                                                      • Factors used in the forecast

                                                                                                                      Companies Covered

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                                                                                                                      Market Re-forecasts - Leisure - UK - March 2009

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