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Mobile Phone Services - US - August 2010

According to the CTIA, 91% of Americans owned a cellphone as of December 2009 - and mobile phone services make up a vast business sector with revenues exceeding $150 billion per year. Wireless networks have become a critical channel for communication, information, entertainment and more, thanks to the incredible proliferation of features and data available through these services.

In spite of these successes, future profits are being threatened by commoditization as consumers embrace new usage models that rely less on voice communication and more on data and applications. Further complicating branding are upgrades to faster and higher-capacity networks that can change the landscape. This report provides in-depth analysis of the mobile phone services market, including:

  • Market size and segmentation: Historic and projected mobile phone services sales will be provided for 2004 through 2014, including segmented sales trends for both voice and data services.
  • Leading companies: Providing a broad nationwide network along with comprehensive customer service is capital-intensive, leading to a highly consolidated market in which four companies, AT&T, Sprint, T-Mobile and Verizon, have over 80% market share. Competitive factors and market strategies will be discussed for each of the four leaders.
  • Market drivers: Key factors driving future growth for mobile phone services will be discussed, including how market maturity and high levels of penetration will impact sector growth; new usage models for cellphone services and how they could impact plan choice; the impact of a severe recession on consumer choices for wireless; and the ongoing launch of next-generation wireless networks, amongst others.
  • Consumer behavior and needs: Based on extensive survey data, Mintel will analyze consumer behavior, attitudes and preferences regarding mobile phone services in detail, including spending, subscribership by brand, feature usage and factors driving product choice. Separate demographic groups will be considered to determine trends in how different groups use mobile phone services.

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer survey data
              • Advertising clips
                • Abbreviations and terms
                  • Abbreviations
                    • Terms
                    • Executive Summary

                      • Growth slows with few new customers to add
                        • Monthly bills stagnate in face of MVNO pricing
                          • Voice dominates revenues, data dictates future growth
                            • Technology shifts outlook for carriers
                              • Family plans and no-contract plans increasing in popularity
                                • Calls and photos still primary usage
                                  • Data plans mainstreaming among under-35s
                                    • Price and confusion barriers to adoption of mobile broadband for laptops
                                      • Mini-generation gaps drive patterns of cell phone use
                                        • Teen boys lag teen girls in cell phone use
                                          • Spend
                                            • Verizon dominant across demographics
                                              • Voice price and quality trump data network when choosing a provider
                                                • T-Mobile scores with minorities
                                                  • Smartphone owners offer a window into future consumer attitudes
                                                  • Insights and Opportunities

                                                    • Advertising: The big unknown
                                                      • Figure 1: Attitudes to ads on cell phones, by age, November 2008-December 2009
                                                    • Wireless spreads beyond phones
                                                    • Inspire Insights

                                                        • Street Games
                                                          • Specific games
                                                            • Implications for cell service providers
                                                            • Market Size and Forecast

                                                              • Key points
                                                                • Slow growth but steady revenue for a mature market
                                                                  • Driving data via “free” streaming content
                                                                    • Sales and forecast for mobile phone service
                                                                      • Figure 2: U.S. sales and forecast for mobile phone service, at current prices, 2005-13
                                                                      • Figure 3: U.S. sales and forecast for mobile phone service, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-13
                                                                    • Average monthly bill stagnates
                                                                      • Figure 4: Average U.S. local* mobile phone bill, at current prices, 2004-09
                                                                      • Figure 5: Average U.S. local* mobile phone bill, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-09
                                                                  • Competitive Context

                                                                    • No-contract gains on contract
                                                                      • Figure 6: Type of mobile phone plan held, 2007-09
                                                                    • Carriers cut out by apps
                                                                      • Wireless triumphs over landlines
                                                                        • Figure 7: U.S. landline ownership, 2006-09
                                                                      • VoIP fails to prevail
                                                                      • Segment Performance

                                                                        • Key points
                                                                          • Voice in decline
                                                                            • Figure 8: U.S. mobile phone service sales at current prices, voice vs. data, 2007 and 2009
                                                                            • Figure 9: Average monthly voice minutes and texts per subscriber, 2007-09
                                                                        • Segment Performance—Voice

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • Voice in decline
                                                                              • Figure 10: U.S. sales of voice service, at current prices, 2005-13
                                                                              • Figure 11: U.S. sales of voice service, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-13
                                                                          • Segment Performance—Data

                                                                            • Key points
                                                                              • Data goes wide
                                                                                • Figure 12: U.S. sales of mobile data service, at current prices, 2005-13
                                                                                • Figure 13: U.S. sales of mobile data service, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-13
                                                                              • Pricing in flux
                                                                                • The content challenge
                                                                                  • Streaming to create more revenue than downloading
                                                                                    • Figure 14: Incidence of cell phone content downloads, by age, March 2010
                                                                                • Retail Channels

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • A key channel for customer relationships
                                                                                      • Figure 15: Number of U.S. stores run by mobile phone service providers, 2010
                                                                                    • Independent retailers also play a role
                                                                                      • Online opportunities
                                                                                      • Market Drivers

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • From talk to text
                                                                                            • Transitioning to 4G
                                                                                              • Figure 16: Planned 4G technologies and projected speeds for major U.S. carriers
                                                                                            • Consumers keep service but move to prepaid plans during recession
                                                                                              • Figure 17: Disposable personal household income and personal consumption, 2006-10
                                                                                            • Increased regulatory scrutiny on the way?
                                                                                            • Leading Companies

                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                • Consolidation continues in the mobile market
                                                                                                    • Figure 18: U.S. mobile phone brand consumer penetration, 2006-09
                                                                                                  • Company overview
                                                                                                    • Figure 19: Revenues and profit margins of leading U.S. wireless carriers, 2009 vs. Q1 2010
                                                                                                    • Figure 20: Subscriptions/users and churn of leading U.S. wireless carriers, 2009 vs. Q1 2010
                                                                                                    • Figure 21: Subscribers shopping for new plans and phones, by carrier, March 2010
                                                                                                  • AT&T
                                                                                                    • Sprint
                                                                                                      • T-Mobile
                                                                                                        • Verizon
                                                                                                          • MetroPCS
                                                                                                            • U.S. Cellular
                                                                                                              • TracFone
                                                                                                              • Innovation and Innovators

                                                                                                                • Bitbop
                                                                                                                  • Pinger
                                                                                                                  • Advertising and Promotion

                                                                                                                    • Overview
                                                                                                                      • Figure 22: Traditional media ad spend by leading mobile phone service providers, 2008 and 2009
                                                                                                                    • Television
                                                                                                                      • AT&T reconnects with emotion
                                                                                                                        • Figure 23: AT&T TV ad, 2010
                                                                                                                      • Sprint keeps it simple
                                                                                                                        • Figure 24: Sprint Nextel TV ad, 2010
                                                                                                                      • T-Mobile focuses on value
                                                                                                                        • Figure 25: T-Mobile TV ad, 2010
                                                                                                                      • Verizon emphasizes benefits
                                                                                                                        • Figure 26: Verizon TV ad, 2010
                                                                                                                      • Online marketing
                                                                                                                        • T-Mobile’s dancing flash mobs hits 43 million views
                                                                                                                          • Figure 27: T-Mobile online marketing link, 2010
                                                                                                                        • T-Mobile leverages BillShrink
                                                                                                                          • Figure 28: T-Mobile online marketing links, 2010
                                                                                                                        • Boost viral takes off from Superbowl
                                                                                                                          • Figure 29: Boost online marketing links, 2010
                                                                                                                        • HTC/Sprint 4G Evo focus on firsts
                                                                                                                          • Figure 30: Boost online marketing links, 2010
                                                                                                                        • Motorola/Verizon “Droid Does” campaign
                                                                                                                          • Figure 31: Droid marketing link, 2010
                                                                                                                        • Print
                                                                                                                          • AT&T thinks global
                                                                                                                            • Figure 32: AT&T print ad, 2010
                                                                                                                          • Sprint stays on point
                                                                                                                            • Figure 33: Sprint print ad, 2010
                                                                                                                          • Verizon looks for an iPhone killer
                                                                                                                            • Figure 34: Verizon print ad, 2010
                                                                                                                        • Phone Ownership

                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                            • Cell phone ownership nearly universal
                                                                                                                              • Figure 35: Trended ownership of mobile phones, 2000-09
                                                                                                                              • Figure 36: Ownership of mobile phones, by age, gender and household income, December 2008-November 2009
                                                                                                                            • Rapid growth in smartphone ownership bodes well for data plan sales
                                                                                                                              • Figure 37: U.S. mobile phone unit sales, by segment, 2008 and 2010
                                                                                                                            • Best targets for conversion: 18-34s and $100,000+s
                                                                                                                              • Figure 38: Cell phone plan purchase intent, by age, gender and household income, March 2010
                                                                                                                          • Type of Plan

                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                              • No-contract and prepaid plans gaining on contract plans
                                                                                                                                • Figure 39: Type of mobile phone service plan, 2007–09
                                                                                                                              • Family plans continue to gain share
                                                                                                                                • Figure 40: Use of family plans vs. individual plans, 2006-09
                                                                                                                              • Contract plans still dominate
                                                                                                                                • Figure 41: Type of mobile phone service plan owned, March 2010
                                                                                                                              • Seniors choose prepaid
                                                                                                                                • Figure 42: Type of mobile phone service plan owned, by age, April 2009-December 2009
                                                                                                                              • Prepaid plans popular with lower-income households
                                                                                                                                • Figure 43: Type of mobile phone service plan, by household income, April 2009-December 2009
                                                                                                                            • Voice, Text and Data Features

                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                • Future of cell phone use in data and text
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 44: Use of text and data services on phones within the last 30 days, 2007-09
                                                                                                                                • Basic calling still dominant for seniors and low-income households
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 45: Use of cell phones for basic calling only vs. for emergencies only, November 2008-December 2009
                                                                                                                                  • Messaging and photography most frequently-used services
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 46: Additional cell phone feature usage, April 2009-December 2009
                                                                                                                                  • Age gap huge for use of text and data services
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 47: Text, data and other cell phone feature usage in past 30 days, by age, April 2009-December 2009
                                                                                                                                    • Picture and video provide gateway to increased data usage for all ages
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 48: Picture and video cell phone feature usage in past 30 days, by age, April 2009-December 2009
                                                                                                                                    • Web and data usage heaviest with higher income groups
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 49: Text, data and other cell phone feature usage in past 30 days, by household income, April 2009-December 2009
                                                                                                                                      • Picture and video offer data opportunities at all price levels
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 50: Picture and video cell phone feature usage in past 30 days, by household income, April 2009-December 2009
                                                                                                                                    • Text, Data and Content Plans

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                        • Age primary driver of web capable phone ownership
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 51: Type of phone owned and availability of advanced capabilities, by age, March 2010
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 52: Type of phone owned and availability of advanced capabilities, by household income, March 2010
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 53: Texting plans and add-on cell phone subscriptions, March 2010
                                                                                                                                        • Add-on services potential drivers of data use
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 54: Texting plans and add-on cell phone subscriptions, by age, March 2010
                                                                                                                                        • Keeping the web simple
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 55: Data plans and web usage on cell phones, by age, March 2010
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 56: Data plans and web usage on phones, by household income, March 2010
                                                                                                                                      • Mobile Broadband

                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                          • Competition, confusion barriers to uptake
                                                                                                                                            • Laptop and hotspot usage hit home with 25-34s and over-$100,000s
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 57: Wireless internet for laptop and use of cell phone as hotspot, by age, March 2010
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 58: Wireless internet for laptop and use of cell phone as hotspot, by household income, March 2010
                                                                                                                                            • Bundling phone access with laptop access
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 59: Wireless internet for laptop and use of cell phone as hotspot, by type of phone, March 2010
                                                                                                                                          • Attitudes and Motivations

                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                              • Mini-generation gaps
                                                                                                                                                • Over-45s vs. under-45s
                                                                                                                                                  • 18-24s have a different outlook from 25-44s
                                                                                                                                                    • Social networking from under-45s may drive over-45s to data
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 60: General attitudes towards cell phones, by age, November 2008-December 2009
                                                                                                                                                    • Web browsing more important to 25-34s than 18-24s
                                                                                                                                                      • Performance important to driving web usage…
                                                                                                                                                        • … but price + performance kills
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 61: Attitudes towards web usage on phones, by age, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                        • Performance primary barrier to web browsing for highest income group
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 62: Attitudes towards web usage on phones, by household income, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                      • Teens and Kids

                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                          • Younger boys lag girls in phone ownership
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 63: Kids and teens ownership of mobile phones, by gender and age, December 2008-November 2009
                                                                                                                                                            • Girls 15-17 key demographic for cell phone providers
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 64: Type of mobile phone contract/plan by teens, by age and gender, November 2008-December 2009
                                                                                                                                                            • Boys 15-17 choose individual plans
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 65: Use of family or individual mobile phone service plan by teens, by age and gender, November 2008-December 2009
                                                                                                                                                            • Opportunities among teen girls
                                                                                                                                                              • Opportunities among teen boys
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 66: Cell phone feature usage by teens, by age and gender, November 2008-December 2009
                                                                                                                                                              • Kids see phones as a gaming platform
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 67: Cell phone feature usage by kids, by gender, November 2008-December 2009
                                                                                                                                                              • Sprint strong in teens
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 68: Cellular service provider, teens vs. adults, November 2008-December 2009
                                                                                                                                                            • Monthly Spend

                                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                • Monthly bill flat from 2007 to 2009
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 69: Amount of monthly cell phone bill, 2007 vs. 2009
                                                                                                                                                                • 18-44s spend twice as much as seniors
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 70: Amount of monthly cell phone bill, by age, April-November 2010
                                                                                                                                                                • Household income most important for gold-plated phone plans
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 71: Amount of monthly cell phone bill, by household income, April-November 2010
                                                                                                                                                                • Attitudes toward cell phones correlated with monthly spend
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 72: Amount of monthly bill, by attitudes towards cell phones, April-November 2010
                                                                                                                                                              • Provider Used

                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                  • Provider shares of cell phone customers stable since 2006
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 73: Cellular service provider used, 2006-09
                                                                                                                                                                  • Young adults flock to data specialists
                                                                                                                                                                    • Jitterbug has room for competition for senior phone plans
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 74: Cellular service provider used, by age, April 2009-December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                    • Prepaid and no-contract specialists lead with lower income consumers
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 75: Cellular service provider used, by household income, April 2009-December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                    • Coverage limits price competition in suburban and rural areas
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 76: Cellular service provider used, urban vs. suburban vs. rural, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                    • Majority of consumers loyal to their providers
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 77: Length of tenure with existing cell service providers, April 2009-December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                    • Carrier Selection

                                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                        • Despite growth of data, voice takes priority in provider choice
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 78: Reasons for choosing a cell service provider, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                        • Voice vs. data age divide reflected in provider selection
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 79: Reasons for choosing a cell service provider, by age, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                        • Network coverage most important to higher-income consumers
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 80: Reasons for choosing a cell service provider, by household income, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                        • Consumer perceptions of providers may not match reality
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 81: Reasons for choosing a cell service provider, by current provider, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                      • Impact of Race/Hispanic Origin

                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                          • Black respondents more likely to avoid contracts
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 82: Type of mobile phone contract/plan, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2009-December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Asians and English-language Hispanics lead in data service
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 83: Data plans and web usage on phones, by race and Hispanic origin, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                          • Asians embrace new ways of using phones
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 84: General attitudes towards cell phones, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2008-December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Black respondents focus on text, Asians seek out best phones
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 85: Reasons for choosing a cell service provider, by race and Hispanic origin, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                          • Provider selection
                                                                                                                                                                            • Verizon lags with minorities
                                                                                                                                                                              • Will T-Mobile hang on to Asians and Hispanics?
                                                                                                                                                                                • Strength in data may help Sprint succeed with Asians
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 86: Cellular service provider used, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2009-December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                • Spanish-speaking Hispanics ripe market with room for growth
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 87: Cellular service provider used, by language spoken among Hispanics, April 2009-December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                              • Cluster Analysis

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Accepters
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Demographics
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Byters
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Demographics
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Callers
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Demographics
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Cluster characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 88: Mobile phone service clusters, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 89: Phone plan, by mobile phone service clusters, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 90: Factors in carrier selection, by mobile phone service clusters, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 91: Data plans, hotspots, mobile broadband, and web surfing on phone, by mobile phone service clusters, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 92: Attitudes and motivations, by mobile phone service clusters, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 93: Operating system on phone, by mobile phone service clusters, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 94: Cellular service provider used, by mobile phone service clusters, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Cluster demographics
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 95: Mobile phone service clusters, by gender, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 96: Mobile phone service clusters, by age group, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 97: Mobile phone service clusters, by household income, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 98: Mobile phone service clusters, by race, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 99: Mobile phone service clusters, by Hispanic origin, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Cluster methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Custom Consumer Groups

                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Focus on smartphone owners
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Smartphone owners to seek free content services
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 100: Text, data and content plans on cell phone, by type of phone, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Coverage, quality, data prices important to smartphone owners
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 101: Reasons for choosing a cell service provider, by type of phone, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Half of smartphone owners access web weekly
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 102: Web usage on cell phones, by type of phone, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Gender differences, by age
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 103: Type of mobile phone service plan used, by gender and age, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 104: Text, data and additional service usage on cell phone in past 30 days, by gender and age, April 2009-December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 105: General attitudes towards cell phones, by household income, November 2008-December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 106: Text and content plans on cell phone, by gender and age, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 107: Data plans and web usage on phones, by presence of children in the household, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix: Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Alliance for Telecommunications Industry Solutions (ATIS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • AT&T Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Boost Mobile, LLC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Bureau of Economic Analysis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Cellular Telecommunications and Internet Association (CTIA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Consumer Electronics Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Electronic Industries Alliance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Enterprise Wireless Alliance (EWA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Federal Communications Commission (FCC)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Global Wireless Education Consortium (GWEC)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Google, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • GSM Association (GSMA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Hewlett-Packard Company
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Microsoft USA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Motorola Mobility Holdings
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • National Association for Stock Car Auto Racing (NASCAR)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • National Football League Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Research In Motion (USA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Rural Cellular Association (RCA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Saatchi & Saatchi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Skype Technologies S.A.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • T-Mobile USA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Twitter, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Verizon Communications Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Walmart Stores (USA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • YouTube, Inc.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Mobile Phone Services - US - August 2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)