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- US Mobile Phone Market - February 2011
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- which new technologies will inspire upgrades in 2011
- which demographics carry the most Android momentum
- which distribution channels are stealing share from carrier stores
- how manufacturer brands are positioning themselves for key demographics.
Insights are supported by exclusive Mintel consumer research, which delves into topics such as:
- how much resistance to smartphone adoption still exists
- which smartphone functionalities have become mainstream
- which characteristics of BlackBerry, Android, and iPhone help them differentiate
- what level of interest exists in 4G and video calling.
Scope and Themes
What you need to know
Definition
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Advertising
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
Executive Summary
Smartphone sales account for nearly three-fourths of market
Smartphone adoption and regular replacers drive market growth
Groundbreaking technologies give consumers reason to upgrade
Tablet PCs offer alternative but hybrid products are unlikely
Major manufacturers vie for tech leadership in smartphones
Android leaps ahead of Apple and Microsoft
Innovations increase smartphone display, speed, and role as data center
Television ads reflect various differentiation strategies
Internet channel accounts for a third of mobile phone purchases
Smartphone adoption shows momentum as well as resistance
Wide range of smartphone uses show substantial adoption
Purchase considerations reveal platform differentiation
Varying consumer attitudes reflect platform weaknesses
Interest in video calling and 4G phones strongest among under-35s
Insights and Opportunities
Young parents deserve more attention from marketers
Thinking ahead to Boomers as a source of sales growth
Figure 1: U.S. population without smartphones, by age, 2011
BlackBerry and Microsoft must defend with stronger brand identities
Inspire Insights
Trend—Affection
Competitive Context
Tablet PCs show sales momentum but phone functionality unlikely
Figure 2: Smartphone and tablet PC ownership and intent to buy, November 2010
Market Size and Forecast
Growing importance of mobile technology renders market recession-proof
Sales and forecast of market
Figure 3: U.S. factory sales and forecast of mobile phones, at current prices, 2006-12
Figure 4: U.S. factory sales and forecast of mobile phones, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-12
Fan-chart forecast
Figure 5: Fan-chart forecast at 50-95% confidence levels, 2006-14
Market Drivers
Upgrades and replacements drive most purchases
Smartphone adoption
Figure 6: Mobile phone ownership and intent to buy, November 2010
Replacement cycle
Figure 7: Attitudes toward mobile phone replacement, by age, November 2010
Groundbreaking new functionalities drive new purchases and upgrades
4G speeds
Video calling
Larger screens
GPS services
Ownership driven by need for social connectivity
Figure 8: Attitudes toward social uses of mobile phones, by age, November 2010
Segment Performance
Smartphone growth more than compensates for standard phone decline
Sales by segment
Figure 9: U.S. factory sales of mobile phones, by type, 2008 and 2010
Figure 10: U.S. factory sales of mobile phones, by type, 2006-14
Segment Performance—Smartphones
Smartphone utility drives upgrades despite recession
Smartphone sales and forecast
Figure 11: U.S. factory sales and forecast of smartphones, at current prices, 2006-14
Figure 12: U.S. factory unit sales of smartphones, at current prices, 2006-10
Segment Performance—Standard Mobile Phones
Factory sales of standard phones shrink but unit sales remain dominant
Standard mobile phone sales and forecast
Figure 13: U.S. factory sales and forecast of standard mobile phones, at current prices, 2006-14
Figure 14: U.S. factory unit sales of standard mobile phones, at current prices, 2006-10
Leading Manufacturers
User share shifts toward leading smartphone manufacturers
Figure 15: User share of top mobile phone manufacturers, Dec 2009-Nov 2010
Top manufacturers vie for position in the new 4G smartphone market
Figure 16: Specifications of Android phones to be released in 2011, January 2011
Smartphone Platforms
Google leaps ahead as RIM and Microsoft tumble
Figure 17: User share of smartphone platforms, Dec 2009-Nov 2010
Apple and Android see highest market momentum
Figure 18: Penetration and desirability of smartphone platforms, November 2010
Apple leads among respondents 24-34 while Android nabs 18-24
Figure 19: Penetration and desirability of smartphone platforms, by age, November 2010
Apple to maintain lead among higher-earners
Figure 20: Penetration and desirability of smartphone platforms, by household income, November 2010
iPhone release on Verizon could boost Apple share
BlackBerry’s lead greatest among large families
Figure 21: Penetration and desirability of smartphone platforms, by presence of children, November 2010
Windows 7 launch makes little impact on top three
Innovation and Innovators
Smartphone becomes modular control center
Oxygen Audio turns smartphone into car stereo
Multi-core processors hit the market in 2011
Displays continue to improve in resolution and brightness
Marketing Strategies
Television advertising
Apple
Figure 22: Apple iPhone 4—Grandfather Video Call, television ad, July 2010
BlackBerry
Figure 23: BlackBerry Style—Urban professions, television ad, November 2010
Motorola (Android)
Figure 24: Motorola Droid Pro—Work phone, television ad, November 2010
Samsung (Android)
Figure 25: Samsung Galaxy S—Avatar on the phone, television ad, July 2010
LG (Android)
Figure 26: LG Vortex—Restoring carousel, television ad, November 2010
HTC (Android)
Figure 27: HTC HD2—Morales family, television ad, October 2010
T-Mobile (Android)
Figure 28: T-Mobile MyTouch 4G—Video call comparison, television ad, December 2010
Online advertising
Inventive social media campaigns complement traditional advertising
Retail Distribution
Bricks-and-mortar loses ground to the internet
Figure 29: Share of mobile phone purchases, by type of distribution channel, 2009 and 2010
National chains and web-only retailers gain share
Walmart
Best Buy
Web-only retailers
Figure 30: Share of mobile phone purchases, by distribution channel/retailer, 2009 and 2010
Ownership and Intent to Buy
Smartphone penetration poised to for significant growth
Figure 31: Mobile phone ownership and intent to buy, November 2010
Boomers show greater resistance to smartphone ownership
Figure 32: Smartphone ownership and intent to buy, by age, November 2010
Smartphones owned by more than half of highest-earners
Figure 33: Smartphone ownership and intent to buy, by household income, November 2010
Decision Factors
Smartphone buyers look for functionality over form
Figure 34: Considerations in the phone purchase decision, November 2010
Purchase considerations reflect differentiation among platforms
Figure 35: Considerations in the phone purchase decision, by smartphone platform, November 2010
Smartphone Apps and Activities
Wide range of smartphone uses show substantial adoption
Figure 36: Usage of smartphone functionalities, November 2010
Women more likely to use smartphone for social networking
Figure 37: Usage of smartphone functionalities, by gender, November 2010
Under-35s most active smartphone users
Figure 38: Usage of smartphone functionalities, by age, November 2010
iPhone users more likely to use mobile commerce
Figure 39: Usage of smartphone functionalities, by smartphone platform, November 2010
Only a quarter of downloaded apps are paid
Figure 40: Number of apps downloaded and paid for, by key demographics, November 2010
Attitudes Toward Mobile Phones
A quarter of cell phone owners replace every other year
Figure 41: Attitudes toward mobile phones, November 2010
Under-45s more likely to replace
Figure 42: Attitudes toward mobile phones, by age, November 2010
Smartphone platforms offer different strengths
Figure 43: Attitudes toward mobile phones, by smartphone platform, November 2010
Other Attitudes Toward Mobile Phones
Interest in video calling strongest among under-35s
Figure 44: Attitudes toward video calling, by age, November 2010
Resistance to mobile internet usage strongest over age 45
Figure 45: Attitudes toward mobile internet, by age, November 2010
Half of parents see mobile phones as good gifts for teens
Figure 46: Attitudes toward mobile phones for kids, by children in the household, November 2010
Attitudes Toward Next-Generation Data Networks
4G phones desired by a quarter of 25-34 year olds and high-earners
Figure 47: Attitudes toward next generation data networks, November 2010
Impact of Race and Hispanic Origin
Asian respondents more likely own smartphones and use certain features
Figure 48: Smartphone ownership and intent to buy, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2010
Figure 49: Usage of smartphone functionalities, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2010
Asian respondents less likely to replace on a regular basis
Figure 50: Attitudes toward mobile phones, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2010
Figure 51: Attitudes toward video calling, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2010
Cluster Analysis
Simplists
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Enthusiasts
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Good-enoughs
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Cluster characteristics
Figure 52: Cell phone clusters, November 2010
Figure 53: Attitudes toward mobile phones, by cell phone cluster, November 2010
Figure 54: Attitudes toward video calling, by cell phone cluster, November 2010
Figure 55: Attitudes toward mobile phones for kids, by cell phone cluster, November 2010
Figure 56: Considerations in the purchase decision, by cell phone cluster, November 2010
Figure 57: Attitudes toward mobile internet, by cell phone cluster, November 2010
Figure 58: Attitudes toward next generation data networks, by cell phone cluster, November 2010
Cluster demographics
Figure 59: Cell phone clusters, by gender, November 2010
Figure 60: Cell phone clusters, by age, November 2010
Figure 61: Cell phone clusters, by household income, November 2010
Figure 62: Cell phone clusters, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2010
Cluster methodology
Custom Consumer Groups
Dads constitute distinct subsegment of younger males
Smartphone ownership
Figure 63: Smartphone ownership and intent to buy, by gender and children in the household, November 2010
Smartphone platforms
Figure 64: Penetration and desirability of smartphone platforms, by gender and children in the household, November 2010
Usage of smartphone functionalities
Figure 65: Usage of smartphone functionalities, by gender and children in the household, November 2010
Attitudes toward mobile phones
Figure 66: Attitudes toward mobile phones, by gender and children in the household, November 2010
Figure 67: Other attitudes toward mobile phones, by gender and children in the household, November 2010
App downloading
Figure 68: Attitudes toward mobile phones, by gender and children in the household, November 2010
Appendix—Other Useful Consumer Tables
By gender
Figure 69: Considerations in the phone purchase decision, by gender, November 2010
Figure 70: Attitudes toward video calling, by gender, November 2010
Figure 71: Attitudes toward next generation data networks, by gender, November 2010
Figure 72: Penetration and desirability of smartphone platforms, by gender, November 2010
By household income
Figure 73: Attitudes toward next generation data networks, by household income, November 2010
Appendix—Trade Associations
- Adobe Systems Incorporated
- Apple, Inc
- CDMA Development Group (CDG)
- Cellular Telecommunications and Internet Association (CTIA)
- Consumer Electronics Association
- Craigslist
- Dell Inc.
- Electronic Industries Alliance
- Enterprise Wireless Alliance (EWA)
- Foursquare
- Garmin International Inc.
- Google, Inc.
- GSM Association (GSMA)
- HTC
- LG Electronics Inc (USA)
- Microsoft Corporation
- Microsoft USA
- Motorola Mobility Holdings
- National Telecommunications and Information Association (NTIA)
- Research In Motion Limited
- Rural Cellular Association (RCA)
- Samsung Electronics (USA)
- Sony Corporation of America
- T-Mobile USA
- Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA)
- The Carphone Warehouse Ltd
- Twitter, Inc.
- U.S. Bureau of the Census
- US Department of Commerce
- Verizon Communications Inc.
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