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Mobile Phones - US - February 2011

  • which new technologies will inspire upgrades in 2011
  • which demographics carry the most Android momentum
  • which distribution channels are stealing share from carrier stores
  • how manufacturer brands are positioning themselves for key demographics.

Insights are supported by exclusive Mintel consumer research, which delves into topics such as:

  • how much resistance to smartphone adoption still exists
  • which smartphone functionalities have become mainstream
  • which characteristics of BlackBerry, Android, and iPhone help them differentiate
  • what level of interest exists in 4G and video calling.

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Sales data
          • Consumer survey data
            • Advertising
              • Abbreviations and terms
                • Abbreviations
                  • Terms
                  • Executive Summary

                    • Smartphone sales account for nearly three-fourths of market
                      • Smartphone adoption and regular replacers drive market growth
                        • Groundbreaking technologies give consumers reason to upgrade
                          • Tablet PCs offer alternative but hybrid products are unlikely
                            • Major manufacturers vie for tech leadership in smartphones
                              • Android leaps ahead of Apple and Microsoft
                                • Innovations increase smartphone display, speed, and role as data center
                                  • Television ads reflect various differentiation strategies
                                    • Internet channel accounts for a third of mobile phone purchases
                                      • Smartphone adoption shows momentum as well as resistance
                                        • Wide range of smartphone uses show substantial adoption
                                          • Purchase considerations reveal platform differentiation
                                            • Varying consumer attitudes reflect platform weaknesses
                                              • Interest in video calling and 4G phones strongest among under-35s
                                              • Insights and Opportunities

                                                • Young parents deserve more attention from marketers
                                                  • Thinking ahead to Boomers as a source of sales growth
                                                      • Figure 1: U.S. population without smartphones, by age, 2011
                                                    • BlackBerry and Microsoft must defend with stronger brand identities
                                                    • Inspire Insights

                                                        • Trend—Affection
                                                        • Competitive Context

                                                          • Tablet PCs show sales momentum but phone functionality unlikely
                                                            • Figure 2: Smartphone and tablet PC ownership and intent to buy, November 2010
                                                        • Market Size and Forecast

                                                          • Growing importance of mobile technology renders market recession-proof
                                                            • Sales and forecast of market
                                                              • Figure 3: U.S. factory sales and forecast of mobile phones, at current prices, 2006-12
                                                              • Figure 4: U.S. factory sales and forecast of mobile phones, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-12
                                                            • Fan-chart forecast
                                                                • Figure 5: Fan-chart forecast at 50-95% confidence levels, 2006-14
                                                            • Market Drivers

                                                              • Upgrades and replacements drive most purchases
                                                                • Smartphone adoption
                                                                  • Figure 6: Mobile phone ownership and intent to buy, November 2010
                                                                • Replacement cycle
                                                                  • Figure 7: Attitudes toward mobile phone replacement, by age, November 2010
                                                                • Groundbreaking new functionalities drive new purchases and upgrades
                                                                  • 4G speeds
                                                                    • Video calling
                                                                      • Larger screens
                                                                        • GPS services
                                                                          • Ownership driven by need for social connectivity
                                                                            • Figure 8: Attitudes toward social uses of mobile phones, by age, November 2010
                                                                        • Segment Performance

                                                                          • Smartphone growth more than compensates for standard phone decline
                                                                            • Sales by segment
                                                                              • Figure 9: U.S. factory sales of mobile phones, by type, 2008 and 2010
                                                                              • Figure 10: U.S. factory sales of mobile phones, by type, 2006-14
                                                                          • Segment Performance—Smartphones

                                                                            • Smartphone utility drives upgrades despite recession
                                                                              • Smartphone sales and forecast
                                                                                • Figure 11: U.S. factory sales and forecast of smartphones, at current prices, 2006-14
                                                                                • Figure 12: U.S. factory unit sales of smartphones, at current prices, 2006-10
                                                                            • Segment Performance—Standard Mobile Phones

                                                                              • Factory sales of standard phones shrink but unit sales remain dominant
                                                                                • Standard mobile phone sales and forecast
                                                                                  • Figure 13: U.S. factory sales and forecast of standard mobile phones, at current prices, 2006-14
                                                                                  • Figure 14: U.S. factory unit sales of standard mobile phones, at current prices, 2006-10
                                                                              • Leading Manufacturers

                                                                                • User share shifts toward leading smartphone manufacturers
                                                                                  • Figure 15: User share of top mobile phone manufacturers, Dec 2009-Nov 2010
                                                                                • Top manufacturers vie for position in the new 4G smartphone market
                                                                                    • Figure 16: Specifications of Android phones to be released in 2011, January 2011
                                                                                • Smartphone Platforms

                                                                                  • Google leaps ahead as RIM and Microsoft tumble
                                                                                      • Figure 17: User share of smartphone platforms, Dec 2009-Nov 2010
                                                                                    • Apple and Android see highest market momentum
                                                                                      • Figure 18: Penetration and desirability of smartphone platforms, November 2010
                                                                                    • Apple leads among respondents 24-34 while Android nabs 18-24
                                                                                      • Figure 19: Penetration and desirability of smartphone platforms, by age, November 2010
                                                                                    • Apple to maintain lead among higher-earners
                                                                                      • Figure 20: Penetration and desirability of smartphone platforms, by household income, November 2010
                                                                                    • iPhone release on Verizon could boost Apple share
                                                                                      • BlackBerry’s lead greatest among large families
                                                                                        • Figure 21: Penetration and desirability of smartphone platforms, by presence of children, November 2010
                                                                                      • Windows 7 launch makes little impact on top three
                                                                                      • Innovation and Innovators

                                                                                        • Smartphone becomes modular control center
                                                                                          • Oxygen Audio turns smartphone into car stereo
                                                                                            • Multi-core processors hit the market in 2011
                                                                                              • Displays continue to improve in resolution and brightness
                                                                                              • Marketing Strategies

                                                                                                • Television advertising
                                                                                                  • Apple
                                                                                                    • Figure 22: Apple iPhone 4—Grandfather Video Call, television ad, July 2010
                                                                                                  • BlackBerry
                                                                                                    • Figure 23: BlackBerry Style—Urban professions, television ad, November 2010
                                                                                                  • Motorola (Android)
                                                                                                    • Figure 24: Motorola Droid Pro—Work phone, television ad, November 2010
                                                                                                  • Samsung (Android)
                                                                                                    • Figure 25: Samsung Galaxy S—Avatar on the phone, television ad, July 2010
                                                                                                  • LG (Android)
                                                                                                    • Figure 26: LG Vortex—Restoring carousel, television ad, November 2010
                                                                                                  • HTC (Android)
                                                                                                    • Figure 27: HTC HD2—Morales family, television ad, October 2010
                                                                                                  • T-Mobile (Android)
                                                                                                    • Figure 28: T-Mobile MyTouch 4G—Video call comparison, television ad, December 2010
                                                                                                  • Online advertising
                                                                                                    • Inventive social media campaigns complement traditional advertising
                                                                                                    • Retail Distribution

                                                                                                      • Bricks-and-mortar loses ground to the internet
                                                                                                        • Figure 29: Share of mobile phone purchases, by type of distribution channel, 2009 and 2010
                                                                                                      • National chains and web-only retailers gain share
                                                                                                        • Walmart
                                                                                                          • Best Buy
                                                                                                            • Web-only retailers
                                                                                                              • Figure 30: Share of mobile phone purchases, by distribution channel/retailer, 2009 and 2010
                                                                                                          • Ownership and Intent to Buy

                                                                                                            • Smartphone penetration poised to for significant growth
                                                                                                                • Figure 31: Mobile phone ownership and intent to buy, November 2010
                                                                                                              • Boomers show greater resistance to smartphone ownership
                                                                                                                • Figure 32: Smartphone ownership and intent to buy, by age, November 2010
                                                                                                              • Smartphones owned by more than half of highest-earners
                                                                                                                • Figure 33: Smartphone ownership and intent to buy, by household income, November 2010
                                                                                                            • Decision Factors

                                                                                                              • Smartphone buyers look for functionality over form
                                                                                                                • Figure 34: Considerations in the phone purchase decision, November 2010
                                                                                                              • Purchase considerations reflect differentiation among platforms
                                                                                                                • Figure 35: Considerations in the phone purchase decision, by smartphone platform, November 2010
                                                                                                            • Smartphone Apps and Activities

                                                                                                              • Wide range of smartphone uses show substantial adoption
                                                                                                                  • Figure 36: Usage of smartphone functionalities, November 2010
                                                                                                                • Women more likely to use smartphone for social networking
                                                                                                                  • Figure 37: Usage of smartphone functionalities, by gender, November 2010
                                                                                                                • Under-35s most active smartphone users
                                                                                                                  • Figure 38: Usage of smartphone functionalities, by age, November 2010
                                                                                                                • iPhone users more likely to use mobile commerce
                                                                                                                  • Figure 39: Usage of smartphone functionalities, by smartphone platform, November 2010
                                                                                                                • Only a quarter of downloaded apps are paid
                                                                                                                  • Figure 40: Number of apps downloaded and paid for, by key demographics, November 2010
                                                                                                              • Attitudes Toward Mobile Phones

                                                                                                                • A quarter of cell phone owners replace every other year
                                                                                                                  • Figure 41: Attitudes toward mobile phones, November 2010
                                                                                                                • Under-45s more likely to replace
                                                                                                                  • Figure 42: Attitudes toward mobile phones, by age, November 2010
                                                                                                                • Smartphone platforms offer different strengths
                                                                                                                    • Figure 43: Attitudes toward mobile phones, by smartphone platform, November 2010
                                                                                                                • Other Attitudes Toward Mobile Phones

                                                                                                                  • Interest in video calling strongest among under-35s
                                                                                                                    • Figure 44: Attitudes toward video calling, by age, November 2010
                                                                                                                  • Resistance to mobile internet usage strongest over age 45
                                                                                                                    • Figure 45: Attitudes toward mobile internet, by age, November 2010
                                                                                                                  • Half of parents see mobile phones as good gifts for teens
                                                                                                                    • Figure 46: Attitudes toward mobile phones for kids, by children in the household, November 2010
                                                                                                                • Attitudes Toward Next-Generation Data Networks

                                                                                                                  • 4G phones desired by a quarter of 25-34 year olds and high-earners
                                                                                                                      • Figure 47: Attitudes toward next generation data networks, November 2010
                                                                                                                  • Impact of Race and Hispanic Origin

                                                                                                                    • Asian respondents more likely own smartphones and use certain features
                                                                                                                      • Figure 48: Smartphone ownership and intent to buy, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2010
                                                                                                                      • Figure 49: Usage of smartphone functionalities, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2010
                                                                                                                    • Asian respondents less likely to replace on a regular basis
                                                                                                                      • Figure 50: Attitudes toward mobile phones, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2010
                                                                                                                      • Figure 51: Attitudes toward video calling, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2010
                                                                                                                  • Cluster Analysis

                                                                                                                      • Simplists
                                                                                                                        • Demographics
                                                                                                                          • Characteristics
                                                                                                                            • Opportunity
                                                                                                                              • Enthusiasts
                                                                                                                                • Demographics
                                                                                                                                  • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                    • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                      • Good-enoughs
                                                                                                                                        • Demographics
                                                                                                                                          • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                            • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                              • Cluster characteristics
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 52: Cell phone clusters, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 53: Attitudes toward mobile phones, by cell phone cluster, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 54: Attitudes toward video calling, by cell phone cluster, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 55: Attitudes toward mobile phones for kids, by cell phone cluster, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 56: Considerations in the purchase decision, by cell phone cluster, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 57: Attitudes toward mobile internet, by cell phone cluster, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 58: Attitudes toward next generation data networks, by cell phone cluster, November 2010
                                                                                                                                              • Cluster demographics
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 59: Cell phone clusters, by gender, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 60: Cell phone clusters, by age, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 61: Cell phone clusters, by household income, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 62: Cell phone clusters, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2010
                                                                                                                                              • Cluster methodology
                                                                                                                                              • Custom Consumer Groups

                                                                                                                                                • Dads constitute distinct subsegment of younger males
                                                                                                                                                  • Smartphone ownership
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 63: Smartphone ownership and intent to buy, by gender and children in the household, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                  • Smartphone platforms
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 64: Penetration and desirability of smartphone platforms, by gender and children in the household, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Usage of smartphone functionalities
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 65: Usage of smartphone functionalities, by gender and children in the household, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                      • Attitudes toward mobile phones
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 66: Attitudes toward mobile phones, by gender and children in the household, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 67: Other attitudes toward mobile phones, by gender and children in the household, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                      • App downloading
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 68: Attitudes toward mobile phones, by gender and children in the household, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix—Other Useful Consumer Tables

                                                                                                                                                      • By gender
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 69: Considerations in the phone purchase decision, by gender, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 70: Attitudes toward video calling, by gender, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 71: Attitudes toward next generation data networks, by gender, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 72: Penetration and desirability of smartphone platforms, by gender, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                      • By household income
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 73: Attitudes toward next generation data networks, by household income, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix—Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                      Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                      • Adobe Systems Incorporated
                                                                                                                                                      • Apple, Inc
                                                                                                                                                      • CDMA Development Group (CDG)
                                                                                                                                                      • Cellular Telecommunications and Internet Association (CTIA)
                                                                                                                                                      • Consumer Electronics Association
                                                                                                                                                      • Craigslist
                                                                                                                                                      • Dell Inc.
                                                                                                                                                      • Electronic Industries Alliance
                                                                                                                                                      • Enterprise Wireless Alliance (EWA)
                                                                                                                                                      • Foursquare
                                                                                                                                                      • Garmin International Inc.
                                                                                                                                                      • Google, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                      • GSM Association (GSMA)
                                                                                                                                                      • HTC
                                                                                                                                                      • LG Electronics Inc (USA)
                                                                                                                                                      • Microsoft Corporation
                                                                                                                                                      • Microsoft USA
                                                                                                                                                      • Motorola Mobility Holdings
                                                                                                                                                      • National Telecommunications and Information Association (NTIA)
                                                                                                                                                      • Research In Motion Limited
                                                                                                                                                      • Rural Cellular Association (RCA)
                                                                                                                                                      • Samsung Electronics (USA)
                                                                                                                                                      • Sony Corporation of America
                                                                                                                                                      • T-Mobile USA
                                                                                                                                                      • Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA)
                                                                                                                                                      • The Carphone Warehouse Ltd
                                                                                                                                                      • Twitter, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                      • U.S. Bureau of the Census
                                                                                                                                                      • US Department of Commerce
                                                                                                                                                      • Verizon Communications Inc.

                                                                                                                                                      Mobile Phones - US - February 2011

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