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Mobile Phones - US - January 2013

“Four OS compete in the smartphone segment, but only three OS typically survive in hardware markets, given that each must be supported by independent software vendors (ISV), and ISVs are attracted to OS by a large audience for potential sales. This gives the most popular OS the advantage, regardless of the quality of the OS itself.”

– Billy Hulkower, Senior Technology Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • Did the Maps flap hurt Apple?
  • Is BlackBerry 10 DOA?
  • Will software and hardware brands continue to be distinct?

 

Mintel’s research for this report finds that 53% of phone owners were smartphone owners as of September, 2012. Only 9% of phone owners express intent to continue to own feature phones, suggesting that over 2013-14 there will be a massive adoption of smartphones by the late majority.

The focus of this report is on courting these first-time smartphone buyers, as well as maintaining the loyalty of current smartphone owners, both from a hardware and OS perspective. The report coverage includes the following aspects of phone ownership and purchase: average spend and attitude to future spending, interest in remaining on the contract system, loyalty to Apple, feature usage, attitudes to OS, and interest in the new Windows Phone and BlackBerry OS.

Insights exploring the best ways to sell phones in the current environment are developed from a close analyses of key demographic differences, as well as an examination of the current OS owned. Other significant insights are developed from an examination of which OS is most desired by demographics as well as how current smartphone owners, Android owners, iPhone owners, and feature phone owners differ in their attitudes to their current and future cell phones. Social media activity including hardware and software brand marketing is analyzed, with a dedicated section of the report covering how, where, and what consumers are discussing online in regard to the leading manufacturers and OS.

 

 

Liqueurs - UK - January 2012

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer survey data
              • Advertising creative
                • Abbreviations and terms
                  • Abbreviations
                    • Terms
                    • Executive Summary

                        • The market
                          • The end of adoption
                            • Figure 1: Fan chart forecast of mobile phone sales, 2007-17
                          • Smartphones drive market sales
                            • Feature phones becoming niche market
                              • Figure 2: U.S. market share: smartphones vs. feature phones, at current prices, 2013
                            • Rising tide for smartphones swells only three ships
                              • Figure 3: Brand of cell phone owned, July 2007-March 2012
                            • Android top smartphone OS, iOS most desired
                              • Figure 4: Current mobile phone OS and most desired OS, September 2012
                              • Figure 5: Interest in new Windows and BlackBerry OS, September 2012
                            • The consumer
                              • Cell phones reaching universal ownership
                                • Penetration growth among kids and teens, stalled
                                  • Voice, text, and photos top features
                                    • Figure 6: Select functions used on phone in past 30 days, by age, August 2011-March 2012
                                  • Increased number of high-income households to keep high-end units afloat
                                    • Figure 7: Spend on last cell phone purchase, by household income, August 2011-March 2012
                                  • 35-44s sweet spot for new OS
                                    • Figure 8: Interest in new cell phone OS and uncertainty about desired OS, September 2012
                                  • Feature phone owners yet to be swayed about top OS
                                    • Most Android and iPhone owners loyal to OS
                                      • Blacks and Hispanics favor Android . . . for now
                                        • Hispanics highest spenders
                                          • Photos and video central to Hispanic usage
                                            • What we think
                                            • Issues in the Market

                                                • Did the Maps flap hurt Apple?
                                                  • Is BlackBerry 10 DOA?
                                                    • Figure 9: Interest in new cell phone OS, by intent to purchase cell phone in next six months, September 2012
                                                  • Will software and hardware brands continue to be distinct?
                                                  • Trend Applications

                                                      • Inspire Trend: Many Mes
                                                        • Inspire Trend: Rise of the Screenager
                                                          • Figure 10: Cell phone ownership among teens, April 2009-June 2012
                                                        • 2015 trends
                                                          • Trend: Old Gold
                                                            • Figure 11: Interest in having the largest cell phone screen size, by age, September 2012
                                                        • Insights and Opportunities

                                                            • Growing 4G
                                                              • Figure 12: 4G phone ownership, by age, September 2012
                                                              • Figure 13: 4G phone ownership, by household income, September 2012
                                                            • Late majority adoption of smartphones
                                                              • Protecting prepaid purchases
                                                                • First-time smartphone buyers price sensitive
                                                                  • Growing the kid and teen market
                                                                    • Phablets for all ages
                                                                      • Stressing reception quality
                                                                        • Toppling Android
                                                                          • Hispanics and videography
                                                                          • Market Size

                                                                              • Best years of growth behind the market
                                                                                • Figure 14: U.S. sales of mobile phones, at current prices, 2007-17
                                                                                • Figure 15: U.S. sales of mobile phones, at inflation-adjusted prices (base year 2012), 2007-17
                                                                              • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                  • Figure 16: Fan chart forecast of mobile phone sales, 2007-17
                                                                              • Market Drivers

                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                  • Limited penetration growth
                                                                                    • Household income
                                                                                      • Figure 17: Spend on most recent cell phone purchase, by household income, August 2011-March 2012
                                                                                      • Figure 18: Household income distribution, 2010-11
                                                                                    • Carrier subsidies
                                                                                    • Segment Performance

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • Smartphones to carry 92% of market in 2013
                                                                                            • Figure 19: U.S. mobile phone sales, by segment, 2010 vs. 2012
                                                                                          • Pace of smartphone sales growth sliding
                                                                                            • Figure 20: U.S. sales of smartphones, 2007-2013
                                                                                          • Feature phones in rapid decline
                                                                                            • Figure 21: U.S. sales of feature phones, 2007-13
                                                                                        • Innovations and Innovators

                                                                                            • Google Glass
                                                                                              • Nokia City Lens
                                                                                                • Motorola gets fit
                                                                                                  • No more lost iPhones
                                                                                                  • Leading Companies—Brand Ownership

                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                        • Hardware
                                                                                                          • Nokia, BlackBerry banking on new OS
                                                                                                            • Figure 22: Brand of cellphone owned, July 2007-March 2012
                                                                                                            • Figure 23: Brand of cellphone owned, by household income, August 2011-March 2012
                                                                                                          • Software
                                                                                                            • Figure 24: Current cellphone OS, by age, August 2011-March 2012
                                                                                                            • Figure 25: Current cellphone OS, by generation (online sample only), September 2012
                                                                                                            • Figure 26: Current cellphone OS, by household income, August 2011-March 2012
                                                                                                        • Marketing Strategies

                                                                                                          • Overview
                                                                                                            • Online initiatives
                                                                                                              • Figure 27: Screenshots, online marketing for Samsung Galaxy S III, 2012
                                                                                                            • Windows Phone marketing highlights personalization
                                                                                                              • Figure 28: Screenshot, Microsoft online marketing for Windows Phone, 2012
                                                                                                            • Motorola targets Samsung’s dominance in Android market
                                                                                                              • Figure 29: Screenshot, Motorola online marketing for Droid Razor HD, 2012
                                                                                                            • TV campaigns
                                                                                                              • iPhone 5
                                                                                                                • Figure 30: Apple iPhone 5, “Your thumb” television ad, 2012
                                                                                                              • Samsung faces iPhone head-on
                                                                                                                • Figure 31: Samsung Galaxy III, “The next big thing” television ad, 2012
                                                                                                              • Google Nexus 4
                                                                                                                • Figure 32: Google Nexus, “The playground is open” television ad, 2012
                                                                                                              • Windows Phone
                                                                                                                • Figure 33: Windows Phone 8, “Cupcake in the oven” television ad, 2012
                                                                                                                • Figure 34: Windows Phone 8, “Guess that famous person” television ad, 2012
                                                                                                              • Droid does Spanish
                                                                                                                • Figure 35: Verizon/ Motorola Droid RAZR MAXX HD, “Droid powers through” spanish language television ad, 2012
                                                                                                            • Social Media

                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                  • Key metrics
                                                                                                                    • Figure 36: Key brand metrics, mobile phone and OS brands, December 2012
                                                                                                                  • Brand usage and awareness
                                                                                                                    • Figure 37: Usage and awareness of selected mobile phone and OS brands, October 2012
                                                                                                                  • Interaction with brands
                                                                                                                    • Figure 38: Interaction with mobile phone and OS brands, October 2012
                                                                                                                  • Motivations for interacting with brands
                                                                                                                    • Figure 39: Why people interact with mobile phone and OS brands, October 2012
                                                                                                                  • Online conversations
                                                                                                                    • Figure 40: Percentage of consumer conversation by select mobile phone and OS brands, August 1, 2012-December 1, 2012
                                                                                                                    • Figure 41: Online mentions, selected mobile phone and OS brands, percent of daily mentions, by day, August 1, 2012- December 1, 2012
                                                                                                                  • Where are people talking about mobile phone and OS brands?
                                                                                                                    • Figure 42: Mentions by page type, selected mobile phone and OS brands, August 1, 2012-December 1, 2012
                                                                                                                  • What are people talking about?
                                                                                                                    • Figure 43: Mentions by type of conversation, selected mobile phone and OS brands, August 1, 2012-December 1, 2012
                                                                                                                    • Figure 44: Major areas of discussion surrounding mobile phone and OS brands, August 1, 2012- December 1, 2012
                                                                                                                    • Figure 45: Major areas of discussion surrounding mobile phone and OS brands, by page type, August 1, 2012-December 1, 2012
                                                                                                                  • Brand analysis: iPhone
                                                                                                                    • What we think
                                                                                                                      • Brand analysis: Android
                                                                                                                        • Figure 46: Android, key social media indicators, December 2012
                                                                                                                      • Key online campaigns
                                                                                                                        • What we think
                                                                                                                          • Brand analysis: Windows Phone
                                                                                                                            • Figure 47: Windows Phone, key social media indicators, December 2012
                                                                                                                          • Key online campaigns
                                                                                                                            • What we think
                                                                                                                              • Brand analysis: Samsung
                                                                                                                                • Figure 48: Samsung, key social media indicators, December 2012
                                                                                                                              • Key online campaigns
                                                                                                                                • What we think
                                                                                                                                  • Brand analysis: Nokia
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 49: Nokia, key social media indicators, December 2012
                                                                                                                                  • Key online campaigns
                                                                                                                                    • What we think
                                                                                                                                      • Brand analysis: BlackBerry
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 50: BlackBerry, key social media indicators, December 2012
                                                                                                                                      • Key online campaigns
                                                                                                                                        • What we think
                                                                                                                                        • Cell Phone Ownership

                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                            • One point of growth per year
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 51: Cell phone ownership, July 2007-March 2012
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 52: Cell phone ownership, by age, August 2011-March 2012
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 53: Cell phone ownership, by household income, August 2011-March 2012
                                                                                                                                            • Penetration among teens and kids at a standstill
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 54: Cell phone ownership among teens, April 2007-June 2012
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 55: Teen cell phone ownership, by gender and age, April 2011-June 2012
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 56: Kids’ cell phone ownership, April 2007-June 2012
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 57: Cell phone ownership among kids, by age, April 2011-June 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Cell Phone Usage and Attitudes

                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                              • Select group of features to drive smartphone adoption
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 58: Features used on cell phone in past 30 days, by age, August 2011-March 2012
                                                                                                                                              • Voice vs. other features
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 59: Attitudes to cell phone features, by age, August 2011-March 2012
                                                                                                                                              • Room for growth in unsubsidized phones
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 60: Attitudes to cell phone price and subsidies, by household income, September 2012
                                                                                                                                              • Bigger sometimes better
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 61: Attitudes to screen size, by age, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 62: Attitudes to screen size, by household income, September 2012
                                                                                                                                              • Loyalty to Apple
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 63: Desire for the iPhone, and purchase of the iPhone 5, by age, September 2012
                                                                                                                                              • Hardware vs. OS
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 64: Attitudes to cell phone OS, by age, September 2012
                                                                                                                                            • Ownership of and Attitudes to Cell Phone Operating Systems

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • Four in 10 undecided about OS
                                                                                                                                                  • Android softer target than Apple for Windows and Blackberry
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 65: Current and desired cell phone OS, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 66: Desired cell phone OS, by gender, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 67: Desired cell phone OS, by age, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 68: Desired cell phone OS, by household income, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                  • Interest in new Windows and BlackBerry OS
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 69: Interest in new cell phone OS, Windows Phone 8 and BlackBerry 10, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 70: Interest in new cell phone OS, Windows Phone 8 and BlackBerry 10, by age, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                • Custom Consumer—Impact of Current OS and Phone Purchase Plans

                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                      • OS preferences: Smartphone owners vs. feature phone owners
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 71: Desired cell phone OS by current OS, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                        • Eying demand for low-end smartphones
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 72: Attitudes to cell phones, by current OS, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Upgraders seek latest OS, iPhone, largest screens
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 73: Attitudes to cell phones, by intent to acquire new phone in next six months, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 74: Desired cell phone OS, by intent to acquire new phone in next six months, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Impact of Race and Hispanic Origin

                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                              • Hispanics capture images, Asians play games
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 75: Features used on cell phone in past 30 days, by race and Hispanic origin, August 2011-March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 76: OS on cell phone, by race and Hispanic origin, August 2011-March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 77: Spend on most recent cell phone purchase, by race and Hispanic origin, August 2011-March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 78: Features used on cell phone in past 30 days, by language spoken in home, August 2011-March 2012
                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix: Teen and Kids Ownership and Usage Data

                                                                                                                                                              • Teens
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 79: Brand owned among teens, April 2007-June 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 80: Features used on cell phone in past 30 days by teens, April 2007-June 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 81: Attitudes to cell phone usage among teens, April 2009-June 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 82: Features used on cell phone in past 30 days among teens, by gender and age, April 2011-June 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 83: Attitudes to cell phone usage among teens, by gender and age, April 2011-June 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 84: Brand owned among teens, by gender and age, April 2011-June 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Kids
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 85: Features used on cell phone in past 30 days by kids, April 2009-June 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 86: Features used on cell phone in past 30 days among kids, by age, April 2011-June 2012
                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Additional Consumer Tables

                                                                                                                                                              • Features
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 87: Features used on cell phone in past 30 days, by household income, August 2011-March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 88: Features used on cell phone in past 30 days, by gender, August 2011-March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 89: Attitudes to features, by household income, August 2011-March 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • OS
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 90: OS on cell phone, by gender, August 2011-March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 91: Attitudes to OS, by household income, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Trended attitudes to cell phones
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 92: Trended attitudes to cell phone usage, July 2008-March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 93: Attitudes to price and subsidies, by age, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Brand owned
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 94: Brand owned, by age, August 2011-March 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Responses by race and Hispanic origin
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 95: Brand owned, by race and Hispanic origin, August 2011-March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 96: Spend on most recent cell phone purchase, by language spoken in home, August 2011-March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 97: Type of phone I would most like to have, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 98: Brand owned, by languages spoken in home, August 2011-March 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Responses by cell phone service provider
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 99: Attitudes to price and subsidies, by current provider, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 100: Acquisition, 4G, and screen size, by current provider, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 101: Attitudes to OS, by current provider, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 102: Current cell phone, by current provider, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 103: Type of phone I would most like to have, by current provider, September 2012
                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Social Media Metrics

                                                                                                                                                              • Brand usage and awareness
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 104: Usage and awareness of the iPhone brand, by demographics, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 105: Usage and awareness of the Android brand, by demographics, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 106: Usage and awareness of the Windows Phone brand, by demographics, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 107: Usage and awareness of the Samsung brand, by demographics, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 108: Usage and awareness of the BlackBerry brand, by demographics, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 109: Usage and awareness of the Nokia Brand, by demographics, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Interaction with brands
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 110: Interaction with the iPhone brand, by demographics, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 111: Interaction with the Android brand, by demographics, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 112: Interaction with the Windows Phone brand, by gender, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 113: Interaction with the Samsung brand, by demographics, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 114: Interaction with the BlackBerry brand, by demographics, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 115: Interaction with the Nokia brand, by demographics, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Motivations for interacting with brands
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 116: Reason for interaction with the iPhone brand, by gender, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 117: Reasons for interaction with the Android brand, by demographics, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 118: Reasons for interaction with the Windows Phone brand, by gender, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 119: Reasons for interaction with the Samsung brand, by demographics, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 120: Reasons for interaction with the BlackBerry brand, by gender, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 121: Reasons for interaction with the Nokia Brand, by gender, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Online conversations
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 122: Percentage of consumer conversation, by mobile phone brands, August 1, 2012-December 1, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 123: Online mentions, by mobile phone brands, by day, August 1, 2012- December 1, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 124: Mentions by page type, selected mobile phone brands, August 1, 2012-December 1, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 125: Online mentions, by selected mobile phone brands, by type of conversation, August 1, 2012-December 1, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 126: Major areas of discussion surrounding mobile phone brands, by day, august 1, 2012-December 1, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 127: Major areas of discussion surrounding mobile phone brands, by type of website, August 1, 2012-December 1, 2012
                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                              Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                              • Apple, Inc
                                                                                                                                                              • HTC
                                                                                                                                                              • Kyocera International Inc.
                                                                                                                                                              • LG Electronics Inc (USA)
                                                                                                                                                              • Microsoft USA
                                                                                                                                                              • Motorola Mobility Holdings
                                                                                                                                                              • Nokia Corporation (US)
                                                                                                                                                              • Palm Inc.
                                                                                                                                                              • Research In Motion (USA)
                                                                                                                                                              • Samsung Electronics (USA)
                                                                                                                                                              • Sanyo North America Corporation
                                                                                                                                                              • Sony Ericsson (USA)

                                                                                                                                                              Mobile Phones - US - January 2013

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