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Mortgages - UK - March 2009

House prices have been in decline since around Q3 2007, having fallen by 16% in 2008 according to both the Halifax and Nationwide price indices. This has had major implications on the mortgage market, compounded by the fact that owing to massive losses from US sub-prime investments and bad debts in the UK, banks have little cash to lend. As a result, gross mortgage lending fell by 29% in 2008 as lenders tightened lending criteria by lowering LTVs and income multiples, with the best rates now reserved for homeowners with a 40% equity share in their property.

While quantitative easing, the Treasury’s Asset Protection Scheme and commitments from several major providers to increase lending during 2009 may help, the year is set to be another challenging one for mortgage providers.

This report explores the issues that have plagued the mortgage market in detail and looks at the strengths and weaknesses that exist here. The state of the market in terms of its size, growth and individual segment performance is assessed, as well as the performance of key players within the market and the strategies that they are utilising in such challenging conditions. The shift in distribution channels from intermediated to direct sales is then explored, before concluding with an analysis of the consumer’s perspective on the market.

Key issues

  • Liquidity issues – lack of credit availability

  • Tighter lending criteria – lower LTVs and income multiples

  • Falling house prices deter potential buyers from entering the market

  • Intermediaries are suffering as lenders focus more on direct channels

  • Fewer loans for house purchase, especially for first-time buyers

  • Remortgage business has also been hit, with more people simply reverting to SVR

  • The low base rate has increased demand for trackers (forcing lenders to tighten up)

  • It has also squeezed margins for lenders, impacting profitability.

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Table of contents

  1. Issues in the Market

      • Key issues
        • Abbreviations
        • Future Opportunities

          • Evidence of pent-up demand in the market
            • Young people may benefit from the current conditions
              • Changing distribution patterns
              • Market in Brief

                • The outlook remains bleak…
                  • … as consumer confidence falls and unemployment rises
                    • Competition from the rental market
                      • Gross mortgage lending fell by almost a third in 2008
                        • Figure 1: Total mortgage lending, gross and net advances, 2000-08
                      • Fixed rate mortgages are the most popular choice
                        • Figure 2: Mortgage ownership, by product type, 2004-08
                      • HBOS is the market leader
                        • Figure 3: Market share of top 20 mortgage providers, by gross advances, 2007
                      • Intermediaries have been hard hit by the downturn
                        • Figure 4: Distribution of gross advances, by channel type, 2007
                      • A third of people have a mortgage outstanding on their home…
                        • Figure 5: Property ownership, January 2009
                      • … and most still think property is a good long-term investment
                      • Internal Market Environment

                        • Key points
                          • The number of housing transactions has fallen
                            • Figure 6: Number of UK property transactions with a value of £40,000 upwards (seasonally adjusted), Q2 2005-Q3 2008
                          • Repossessions have increased…
                            • … encouraging the government to step in
                              • Liquidity remains a major constraint
                                • Figure 7: Rolling 3-month average LIBOR vs BoE base rate, Jan 2003-Jan 2009
                              • Rescue package number two on the horizon
                                • Figure 8: UK rescue package*, February 2009
                              • A new era of tighter regulation in the future?
                                • The end of 100%+ mortgages?
                                  • Figure 9: Residential loans to individuals*, by LTV ratio, Q3 2007 vs Q3 2008
                                  • Figure 10: Number of mortgage products available, February 2008 vs March 2009
                              • Broader Market Environment

                                • Key points
                                  • House prices continue to decline…
                                    • Figure 11: Average house prices, Jan 2007-Jan 2009 (monthly data, seasonally adjusted)
                                  • …though some are optimistic about signs of recovery
                                    • Consumer confidence has fallen sharply…
                                      • Figure 12: UK Consumer confidence, major indices, May 2004-January 2009*
                                    • …as more households struggle to make ends meet
                                      • Figure 13: Households’ current financial position, Q4 2007-Q4 2008
                                    • Demand for mortgages remains subdued
                                      • Figure 14: Expected mortgage and property purchase activity, Q3/Q4 2002-Q4 2008/Q1 2009
                                    • Base rate drops to an all-time low…but also offers opportunities
                                      • Figure 15: Bank of England base rate, January 2000-February 2009
                                    • Unemployment looks set to increase further in 2009
                                      • Housing transactions fall sharply
                                      • Competitive Context

                                        • Key points
                                          • Changing aspirations of home ownership?
                                            • Owner-occupancy has remained static since 2000
                                              • Figure 16: Number of households in England and Wales, by tenure, 1981-2007
                                            • Sale and rent back potentially impacts the market
                                            • Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market

                                                • Market strengths
                                                  • Evidence of rising pent-up demand
                                                    • Houses becoming more affordable for FTBs
                                                      • Stamp duty threshold has been increased
                                                        • An emphasis on direct sales reduces costs for lenders
                                                          • Market weaknesses
                                                            • Falling house prices deter potential buyers
                                                              • Liquidity continues to be a problem
                                                                • Arrears, repossessions and bad debts are rising
                                                                  • Tighter lending criteria restrict loan availability
                                                                  • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                    • Key points
                                                                      • Lenders focusing on risk and pricing – little innovation at present
                                                                        • HSBC launches the Rate Matcher mortgage
                                                                          • Helping FTBs get on the property ladder… in Ireland
                                                                            • Britannia opts for a more flexible approach
                                                                              • Lloyds TSB launches a product tied to its Olympic sponsorship
                                                                              • Trade Perspective

                                                                                • Demand remains subdued…
                                                                                  • … as does supply
                                                                                    • A good time for people remortgaging
                                                                                      • Contraction in the market and little innovation
                                                                                        • House prices and consumer confidence remain key
                                                                                          • The low base rate is squeezing margins
                                                                                            • Future prospects for the market
                                                                                            • Consumer Perspective

                                                                                                • The slowdown – not always bad for mortgage owners…
                                                                                                  • …and great for debt repayment
                                                                                                    • Forced landlords and negative equity
                                                                                                      • The battle between fixed and tracker rates
                                                                                                        • Which way for house prices?
                                                                                                        • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                            • Number of mortgage accounts declines slightly in 2008
                                                                                                              • Figure 17: Total number of mortgage accounts, 1997-2008
                                                                                                            • Total mortgage debt stands at over £1.2 trillion
                                                                                                              • Figure 18: Total mortgage debt (amounts outstanding at year end), 2000-08
                                                                                                            • Net lending down by two thirds in 2008
                                                                                                              • Figure 19: Total mortgage lending, gross and net advances, 2000-08
                                                                                                            • New loans for house purchase have been particularly hard hit
                                                                                                              • Figure 20: Number of mortgage approvals, by type of mortgage, Jan 2006-Dec 2008 (monthly data, seasonally adjusted)
                                                                                                            • Remortgages now account for over half of gross advances
                                                                                                              • Home-movers account for three fifths of house purchase loans
                                                                                                                • Figure 21: Loans advanced for house purchase, by type of borrower, 2002-08
                                                                                                              • Buy-to-let growth has slowed
                                                                                                                • Figure 22: Number and value of buy-to-let mortgages outstanding, 2000-08
                                                                                                              • Market forecast
                                                                                                                • A slow recovery expected from 2010
                                                                                                                  • Figure 23: Forecast of total gross advances (at current prices), 2003-13
                                                                                                                • The remortgage market may hold up better in 2009
                                                                                                                  • Figure 24: Forecast of gross advances, by type of loan (at current prices), 2003-13
                                                                                                                • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                                                • Market Segmentation

                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                    • Fixed rate mortgages are the product of choice for most…
                                                                                                                      • Figure 25: Mortgage ownership, by product type, 2004-08
                                                                                                                    • …although trackers have become more popular recently
                                                                                                                      • Changing landscape affects margins
                                                                                                                      • Market Share

                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                          • Banks benefit from specialist lenders pulling out of the market
                                                                                                                            • Figure 26: Gross advances, by type of lender, Jan 2007-Dec 2008 (monthly data, seasonally adjusted)
                                                                                                                          • Abbey performed well in 2008…
                                                                                                                            • Figure 27: UK gross and net mortgage lending of key providers, 2008
                                                                                                                          • …as did Barclays, outperforming its competitors on net lending
                                                                                                                            • The disappearance of Northern Rock
                                                                                                                              • Figure 28: Secondary lenders results and balances, 2008
                                                                                                                            • HBOS led the market in 2007
                                                                                                                              • Figure 29: Market share of top 20 mortgage providers, by gross advances, 2007
                                                                                                                            • Winners and losers – predictions for 2009
                                                                                                                            • Companies and Products

                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                • Navigating the mortgage maze
                                                                                                                                  • Consolidation and contraction within the market
                                                                                                                                    • Scaling back lending and cherry-picking customers
                                                                                                                                      • Company snapshots
                                                                                                                                        • HBOS
                                                                                                                                          • Abbey
                                                                                                                                            • Lloyds TSB (Lloyds Banking Group)
                                                                                                                                              • Nationwide
                                                                                                                                                • Other developments in the market
                                                                                                                                                • Brand Elements

                                                                                                                                                    • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 30: Attitudes towards and usage of various mortgage brands, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                    • Nationwide
                                                                                                                                                      • What the brand is trying to achieve
                                                                                                                                                        • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 31: Attitudes towards the Nationwide brand, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                        • Barclays
                                                                                                                                                          • What the brand is trying to achieve
                                                                                                                                                            • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 32: Attitudes towards the Barclays brand, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                            • Abbey
                                                                                                                                                              • What the brand is trying to achieve
                                                                                                                                                                • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 33: Attitudes towards the Abbey brand, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                • Halifax
                                                                                                                                                                  • What the brand is trying to achieve
                                                                                                                                                                    • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 34: Attitudes towards the Halifax brand, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                    • Brand qualities of mortgage brands
                                                                                                                                                                      • Mortgage brands – profit over personality?
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 35: Personalities of various mortgage brands, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Halifax has the highest usage levels
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 36: Consumer usage of various mortgage brands, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Nationwide has the highest consideration
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 37: Consideration of various mortgage brands, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Halifax – falling behind, falling from grace?
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 38: Momentum of various mortgage brands, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Lloyds TSB and Nationwide lead on brand satisfaction
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 39: Satisfaction with various mortgage brands, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Nationwide has highest loyalty, Halifax lowest recommendation
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 40: Commitment to various mortgage brands, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Round-up
                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                          • Mortgages adspend has gradually decreased since 2005…
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 41: Top ten categories of financial services adspend, 2005-08
                                                                                                                                                                          • …and fell significantly in 2008
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 42: Top ten sub-categories of mortgages adspend, 2005-08
                                                                                                                                                                          • Northern Rock’s mortgage adspend falls to zero in 2008
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 43: Top 20 advertisers of mortgages, by adspend, 2005-08
                                                                                                                                                                          • A more balanced advertising strategy has emerged
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 44: Total mortgages adspend, by media type, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                        • Channels to Market

                                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                            • Current account providers have a big advantage
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 45: Sources of information and advice used for arranging a mortgage, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                            • TGI data show direct arrangement is most popular
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 46: Mortgage ownership, by method of arrangement, 2002-08
                                                                                                                                                                            • Intermediaries dominated the market in 2007
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 47: Distribution of gross advances, by channel type, 2007
                                                                                                                                                                          • The Consumer – Ownership and Expectations

                                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                              • Where now for first-time buyers?
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 48: Property ownership, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                • The buy-to-let generation re-thinks their options
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Plenty of younger people on the ladder – and plenty wanting to join them
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 49: Property ownership, by age, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Selling to the better-off
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 50: Property ownership, by socio-economic group, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Clearing debts before retirement
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 51: Property ownership, by lifestage, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                  • The boom is well and truly over
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 52: Expected growth in house prices, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Irrational exuberance turns to rational pessimism
                                                                                                                                                                                      • A new approach to dinner party conversations
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 53: Expected growth in house prices, by socio-economic group, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • High income, more worries
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 54: Expected growth in house prices, by household income, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Not much optimism among younger people
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 55: Expected growth in house prices, by age, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Homeowners no more optimistic than the general public
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 56: Expected growth in house prices, by property ownership, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • The Consumer – Attitudes and Advice

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                        • The love affair isn’t dead yet
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 57: Attitudes towards buying property and the housing market, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                          • PR problems ahead?
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Collateral damage for lenders?
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 58: Attitudes towards buying property and the housing market, by gender and age, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Key customers the most suspicious
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 59: Attitudes towards buying property and the housing market, by socio-economic group and lifestage, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Potential buyers shut out of the market
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 60: Attitudes towards buying property and the housing market, by property ownership, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Disintermediation isn’t just for lenders
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 61: Sources of information and advice used for arranging a mortgage, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Mortgage-holders particularly reliant on the banks
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 62: Sources of information and advice used for arranging a mortgage, by property ownership, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Building word of mouth for future customers
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 63: Sources of information and advice used for arranging a mortgage, by age, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • A broad base of opinion
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 64: Sources of information and advice used for arranging a mortgage, by socio-economic group, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                • The Consumer – Targeting Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Most are happy with their mortgage
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 65: Mortgage switching behaviour, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Potential switchers – still about flexibility, not rate
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 66: Mortgage switching behaviour cross-analysis, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Mobile – and flexible
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 67: Mortgage switching behaviour, by socio-economic group, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Re-educating younger customers
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The Consumer – Further Analysis

                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Apathetic versus savvy consumers
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 68: Number of different sources of mortgage advice used, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Attitudinal groups identified
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Group 1: Put-off Consumers
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Group 2: Confident High Earners
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Group 3: Apathetic Young and Olds
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Group 4: Concerned Third Agers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Confident High Earners still believe in property
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 69: Attitudinal groups, by attitudes towards the housing market, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Concerned Third Agers spy a buying opportunity
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Confident High Earners more likely to be ABs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 70: Demographic characteristics of attitudinal groups, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Confident Third Agers more likely to seek professional advice
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 71: Attitudinal groups, by sources of mortgage advice used, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Concerned Third Agers are the most pessimistic
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 72: Attitudinal groups, by house price growth expectations, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Confident High Earners more inclined to switch provider
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 73: Attitudinal groups, by house price expectations, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Property ownership and mortgage holdings
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 74: Property ownership, by demographic group, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Price expectations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 75: Property price expectations, by demographic group, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Attitudes towards buying property
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 76: Attitudes towards buying property and the housing market, by gender and age, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 77: Attitudes towards buying property and the housing market, by socio-economic group and lifestage, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 78: Attitudes towards buying property and the housing market, by marital status and special group, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 79: Attitudes towards buying property and the housing market, by working status and household income, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 80: Attitudes towards buying property and the housing market, by region, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 81: Attitudes towards buying property and the housing market, by newspaper readership and internet usage, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Mortgage switching behaviour
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 82: Mortgage switching behaviour, by demographic group, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Sources of advice
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 83: Key sources of information and advice used for arranging a mortgage, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Attitudinal groups
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 84: Demographic characteristics of attitudinal groups, January 2009

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Abbey
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • ABN AMRO Capital
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Alliance & Leicester
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Amazon.co.uk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • APS Mortgages
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Bank of England
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Banking Code Standards Board
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Barclays Bank plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Birmingham Midshires
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Bradford & Bingley plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Bristol & West
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Britannia Building Society
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • British Airways Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • British Bankers' Association (BBA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • British Market Research Bureau (BMRB)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • British Sky Broadcasting Group plc (BSkyB)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Building Societies Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Cahoot
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Cheltenham & Gloucester plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Cheshire Building Society
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Citizens Advice Bureau
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Clydesdale Bank
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Competition Commission
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Confused.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Council of Mortgage Lenders
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Coventry Building Society
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Direct Line Group Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Financial Services Authority (The)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • First Active plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Freeview
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • GE Consumer Finance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Gfk NOP
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Grupo Santander Central Hispano S.A.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Halifax Mortgage Services
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • HBOS plc (Halifax Bank of Scotland)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • HM Revenue & Customs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • HSBC Private Bank (UK) Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Intelligent Finance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • ITV plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • J. Sainsbury
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Land Registry
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Lehman Brothers [UK]
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Lloyds Banking Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Market & Opinion Research International (MORI)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Marks & Spencer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • MoneySupermarket.com Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • National Savings & Investments
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Nationwide Building Society
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • NatWest
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Northern Rock plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Norwich Union
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Office for National Statistics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Office of Fair Trading
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Paragon Mortgages
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Portman Building Society
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Prudential plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Rightmove Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Somerfield
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Standard Life Bank Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • The Mortgage Business
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • The One Account
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Ulster Bank Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Waitrose
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Wm Morrison Supermarkets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Woolwich plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Yorkshire Building Society

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Mortgages - UK - March 2009

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    £1,995.00 (Excl.Tax)