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Movie Sales and Rentals - US - August 2015

"The Big Three subscription services have become staples of American life and are now also major forces in original content, with substantial ad budgets. Based on the success of these services, myriad new streaming services are sprouting up, including HBO Now, and Showtime Anytime. While households have often being willing to keep adding services to date, the industry will eventually run up against concerns about cost, making ad-supported streaming services more competitive."
- Billy Hulkower, Senior Technology Analyst

This report discusses the following key topics:

  • No growth as share shifts between segments
  • Mounting competition

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • No growth as share shifts between segments
            • Figure 1: Share of home video sales, purchases vs rentals vs subscriptions, 2015
          • Mounting competition
            • Figure 2: Interest in short-form content and building digital libraries, May 2015
          • The opportunities
            • Resolution and extras
              • Figure 3: Interest in additional features and willingness to pay for HD content, May 2015
            • Ad-supported monetization yet to be fully capitalized
              • Figure 4: Preference for and usage of ad-supported streams, May 2015
            • Curation: less may be more
              • Figure 5: Attitudes and preferences in content selection, May 2015
            • Dads good for growth
              • Figure 6: Enthusiasm for home video, dads vs all viewers, May 2015
            • Partnerships with pay TV and new streaming services
              • What it means
              • The Market – What You Need to Know

                • Growth from HD and UHD in second half of decade
                  • Subscription cannibalizes single transaction
                    • New services vs. EST/rentals vs. pay TV
                    • Market Size and Forecast

                      • HD and UHD to assist sales
                        • Subscription sales potential drivers
                          • EST potential drivers
                            • Figure 7: Total US home video sales and fan chart forecast, at current prices, 2010-20
                        • Market Breakdown

                          • Shift from single transaction to subscription
                            • Figure 8: Home video sales, by segment, 2013-15
                        • Market Perspective

                          • Pay TV channels migrate online
                            • Short-form competitive
                            • Market Factors

                              • Familiarity with Hollywood fare
                                • Figure 9: Familiarity as driver in content selection, May 2015
                              • Declining ticket sales
                                • Figure 10: Box office ticket sales and number of theatrical releases, 2009-15
                              • Golden age of television central to sVOD
                                • Figure 11: Attitudes to binging and browsing, May 2015
                              • Adoption of 4K
                                  • Figure 12: Manufacturer sales of 4K UHD televisions, 2013-15
                                • Early adopters show strong levels of 4K UHD ownership
                                  • Figure 13: Ownership of 4K UHD television sets, selected demographics, May 2015
                                • Release windows
                                  • Shorter theatrical releases benefit home video
                                    • Revenue sharing to bring theatrical exhibitors on-board shorter windows
                                      • Longer EST window to boost digital sales
                                      • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                                        • Five leaders
                                          • Second tier could use ad support
                                            • Original content establishes wide moats
                                            • Subscriptions – What’s Working?

                                              • Netflix rules via unlimited
                                                • Amazon extends its brand
                                                  • Figure 14: Subscription to Netflix and Amazon Instant Video, May 2015
                                                • Freemium working at Hulu
                                                • Purchases and Rentals – What’s Working?

                                                  • Redbox performs on price
                                                    • Amazon tops digital single-transaction
                                                      • Figure 15: Leading transactional services, May 2015
                                                  • What’s Struggling?

                                                    • Out of sight, out of mind
                                                      • Figure 16: Transactional video on demand services with 5% or less share of last transaction, May 2015
                                                  • What’s Next?

                                                    • Dominance via original content
                                                      • Netflix
                                                        • Amazon
                                                          • Hulu
                                                            • Turning short-form into linear channels
                                                            • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                              • Age, parental status central to behavior
                                                                • Viewing on television benefits incumbents
                                                                  • Dads top targets
                                                                  • Market Participation – Purchase, Rental, cVOD, sVOD

                                                                    • Two in three spent on home video in past month
                                                                      • Figure 17: Market participation by type of activity, May 2015
                                                                    • Transactional usage infrequent
                                                                      • Figure 18: Number of movies bought or rented in past month, May 2015
                                                                    • Age, parental status drive participation
                                                                      • Figure 19: Market participation, select demographics, May 2015
                                                                  • How Content is Viewed

                                                                    • Usage on television sets growing rapidly
                                                                      • Figure 20: Internet connectivity via televisions and A/V equipment, September 2014
                                                                    • Half view on connected TV weekly
                                                                      • Figure 21: Methods of watching movies and television shows, September 2014
                                                                    • Comfort with mobile grows
                                                                      • Figure 22: Favorable perspective for mobile usage, April 2012-December 2014
                                                                  • Ad Support

                                                                    • Half prefer ads in lieu of payment
                                                                      • Stretched households appreciate ad-based viewership
                                                                        • Figure 23: Preference for and usage of ad-supported streams, selected demographics, May 2015
                                                                    • The Hispanic Audience

                                                                      • Elevated usage, positive attitudes
                                                                        • Figure 24: Attitudes to video consumption, Hispanics vs all viewers, May 2015
                                                                    • In Focus – Dads

                                                                      • Dads score higher on every index
                                                                        • Figure 25: Interest in foreign, independent, and HD content, Dads vs all viewers, May 2015
                                                                    • High Value Groups

                                                                      • Parents, urbanites, 25-34s paying for HD and building libraries
                                                                        • Figure 26: Paying a premium for HD and building a digital library, selected demographics, May 2015
                                                                    • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                      • Data sources
                                                                        • Sales data
                                                                          • Fan chart forecast
                                                                            • Consumer survey data
                                                                              • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                • Abbreviations
                                                                                  • Terms
                                                                                  • Appendix – Market

                                                                                      • Figure 27: Total US home video sales and forecast, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                                  • Appendix – Consumer

                                                                                      • Figure 28: Use of Netflix in past 30 days, April 2012-December 2014
                                                                                      • Figure 29: Attitudes toward digital video consumption, April 2012-December 2014
                                                                                      • Figure 30: Penetration of usage of online video, April 2013-December 2014

                                                                                  Companies Covered

                                                                                  • Amazon North America
                                                                                  • Apple, Inc
                                                                                  • Experian
                                                                                  • Netflix, Inc.

                                                                                  Movie Sales and Rentals - US - August 2015

                                                                                  £2,684.63 (Excl.Tax)