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Nail Color and Care - US - January 2018

The nail care and color market has declined since 2014, with substantial losses in the key segment, nail color. While category engagement is struggling as a whole, consumer concern around the damage of frequent polishing and growing interest in ingredient formulations is evident in the success of artificial nails and color-plus-treatment polishes. Finding new ways to promote nail launches and highlighting free-from claims present key opportunities and could help invigorate the category.

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Cyclical nature of the category has led to a decline in sales
  • Women are less engaged than a year ago
  • Concerns about damage could be steering women away from gel polish

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Cyclical nature of the category has led to a decline in sales
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of nail color and care, at current prices, 2012-22
          • Women are less engaged than a year ago
            • Figure 2: Nail routine involvement, October 2017
          • Concerns about damage could be steering women away from gel polish
            • Figure 3: Attitudes toward nail damage and ingredient safety, by age, October 2017
          • The opportunities
            • Back to basics, with benefits
              • Figure 4: Nail product usage, October 2017
            • Pop-up shops could be a way to boost product usage
              • Hispanic women remain engaged in nail trends
                • Figure 5: Select nail product usage, by Hispanic origin, October 2017
              • What it means
              • The Market – What You Need to Know

                • Nail color and care market in decline
                  • Largest segment experiences largest loss
                    • Salon services are in decline, involvement among affluent women stagnant
                      • Growth in aging and Hispanic populations
                      • Market Size and Forecast

                        • Historic and projected sales performance of nail color and care
                          • Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of nail color and care, at current prices, 2012-22
                          • Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of nail color and care, at current prices, 2012-22
                      • Market Breakdown

                        • Nail polish sees largest sales drop
                          • Figure 8: Share of nail color and care sales, by segment, at current prices, 2017
                        • Artificial nails get a boost
                          • Figure 9: Total US retail sales of nail color and care, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
                      • Market Perspective

                        • Salon services also struggling to bolster engagement
                          • Figure 10: Nail services done at a salon, November 2014, October 2015, and October 2017
                        • Middle-income women more engaged in some salon services
                          • Figure 11: Select nail services done at a salon, by household income, October 2017
                          • Figure 12: Select nail routine involvement, by household income, October 2017
                      • Market Factors

                        • Growth in aging population
                          • Figure 13: Female population by age, 2012-22
                        • Rising consumer confidence
                          • Figure 14: Consumer Sentiment Index, Oct 2010-Oct 2017
                        • Hispanic population projects highest growth
                          • Figure 15: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2012-22
                      • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                        • MULO sales align with decline in consumer engagement
                          • Concerns regarding nail damage see sales success
                            • Nail products associated with gel manicures struggling
                              • Opportunities to think outside of the bottle may change consumer skepticism
                              • Company and Brand Sales of Nail Color and Care

                                • MULO sales indicative of total market
                                  • Kiss Products post growth with gains in accessories and artificial nails
                                    • Sales of nail color and care by company
                                      • Figure 16: MULO sales of nail color and care, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                  • What’s Working?

                                    • Innovations in artificial nails see success
                                        • Figure 17: MULO sales of artificial nails and accessories, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                      • Polish with treatment claims growing in sales
                                      • What’s Struggling?

                                        • Gel nail polish loses shine
                                          • Figure 18: Nail services done at-home, November 2014, October 2015, and October 2017
                                        • Treatments associated with gel losing share to polish with benefits
                                          • Figure 19: MULO sales of nail treatments, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                      • What’s Next?

                                        • Free-from ingredient claims provide opportunity to make polish “safe”
                                          • Cruelty-free claims shift from face to nails
                                            • Figure 20: Select nail polish claims, by highest percentage growth, Jan 2013-Dec 2017*
                                          • Pop-up shops provide a unique, exclusive experience for younger generations
                                            • Figure 21: Break Records, Not Nails | #OPIWorldRecord, 2017
                                        • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                          • At home, traditional nail services beat out trendy
                                            • Traditional nail products stay on top
                                              • Mass merchandisers most popular shopping destination
                                                • Women spending less time at the salon, less money on products
                                                  • Appropriate color top reason for choosing polish
                                                    • Concerns over polishing and nail health are growing
                                                    • Nail Services

                                                      • Single-color manicures and pedicures remain most popular services
                                                        • Figure 22: Nail services done, salon vs at-home, October 2017
                                                      • Younger women more likely to do nail services at home
                                                        • Figure 23: Nail services done, at-home, by age, October 2017
                                                      • Hispanic women over index for at-home nail services
                                                        • Figure 24: Nail services done, at-home, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2017
                                                    • Nail Product Usage

                                                      • Nail staples have higher usage than specialty products
                                                        • Figure 25: Nail product usage, October 2017
                                                      • Staples see high usage, women aged 55+ heavy users
                                                        • Figure 26: Nail product usage, by age, October 2017
                                                      • Engagement higher among Black and Hispanic women
                                                        • Figure 27: Nail product usage, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2017
                                                    • Retailers Shopped

                                                      • Mass merchandisers and drug stores encourage impulse buys
                                                        • Figure 28: Retailers shopped, October 2017
                                                      • Majority of purchases occur in-store
                                                        • Figure 29: In-store vs. online purchase, October 2017
                                                      • Online shoppers visit more retailers compared to in-store
                                                        • Figure 30: Select retailers shopped, by in-store vs. online purchase, October 2017
                                                      • Women tend to follow the purchase patterns of their respective age groups
                                                          • Figure 31: Retailers shopped, by age, October 2017
                                                        • Hispanics seek out variety of retailers to find products
                                                          • Figure 32: Retailers shopped, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2017
                                                      • Involvement in Nail Routines

                                                        • Women spending less time at the salon, less money on products
                                                          • Figure 33: Nail routine involvement, October 2017
                                                        • 25-44-year-olds spending more time researching and experimenting
                                                          • Figure 34: Nail routine involvement – More or less time spent, by age, October 2017
                                                        • Hispanic women spend more time on nail trends
                                                          • Figure 35: Nail routine involvement – More or less time spent, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2017
                                                      • Reasons for Choosing Nail Polish

                                                        • Appropriate color top reason for choosing polish
                                                            • Figure 36: Reasons for choosing nail polish, by rank, October 2017
                                                          • Mature women play it safe with color, younger groups follow trends
                                                            • Figure 37: Reasons for choosing nail polish, any rank (net), by age, October 2017
                                                          • Hispanic women are trend-driven, willing to try new looks
                                                            • Figure 38: Reasons for choosing nail polish, any rank (net), by race and Hispanic origin, October 2017
                                                        • Attitudes toward Nail Products

                                                          • Ingredient safety a growing concern, some skepticism regarding efficacy
                                                            • Figure 39: Attitudes towards nail products, October 2015 and October 2017
                                                          • 18-34-year-olds interested but skeptical about natural
                                                            • Figure 40: Attitudes towards nail products, by age, October 2017
                                                          • Black women more concerned with natural than other groups
                                                            • Figure 41: Attitudes towards nail products, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2017
                                                        • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                          • Data sources
                                                            • Sales data
                                                              • Fan chart forecast
                                                                • Consumer survey data
                                                                  • Consumer qualitative research
                                                                    • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                      • Abbreviations
                                                                      • Appendix – The Market

                                                                          • Figure 42: Total US sales and forecast of nail color and care, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                          • Figure 43: Total US retail sales of nail color and care, by segment, at current prices, 2012-17
                                                                      • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                          • Figure 44: MULO sales of nail polish, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                                          • Figure 45: MULO sales of nail accessories and implements, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                                          • Figure 46: MULO sales of nail polish removers, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017

                                                                      Nail Color and Care - US - January 2018

                                                                      US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)