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National Newspapers - UK - March 2011

This report considers the market for national newspapers, which has experienced a tough period during the past two years or so as a result of the impact of the recession on both sales and advertising revenues. This came on the back of a long-term downward trend in circulations.

However, it is not all bad news for the industry, with strong growth being seen in online audiences, in line with a general trend of growth in the number of visits to news and information websites.

  • Newspaper publishers are going through an exciting period of change at present, with declining print circulations being more than offset by growth in visits to their websites. During the past five years, total circulations have contracted by 19.3%, while visits to all news and information websites (ie not just those of national newspapers) have grown by 97.8% in the same period.
  • Growth in online audiences has affected newspapers in different ways. The popular tabloid titles have lost fewer readers but tend to have lower numbers of monthly visitors to their sites, while the quality titles have lost the most readers but are tending to see higher numbers of monthly visitors to their websites.
  • The biggest challenge facing the industry at present is how to monetise this growing online audience as effectively as the industry has traditionally managed to do with its print audience. Mintel’s research shows that around two in five newspaper readers would be prepared to pay to visit the website of the newspaper they visit most often.
  • News International is the dominant player in the industry, with a market share (36.7%) nearly double that of its nearest rival, Associated Newspapers (20.1%). Its position is derived from a significant presence in both the popular tabloid and quality sectors.
  • Consumers first and foremost want their newspapers to be informative (cited by 40%) rather than entertaining (11%) and feel that they are too obsessed with celebrities and gossip (32%) and overstep the mark in relation to privacy (25%). However, they are seen as being good for keeping politicians and other public servants in check (24%).
  • Among those newspaper readers prepared to pay for website access, readers of popular tabloids like The Sun and Daily Mirror were most likely to be prepared to pay less than £1 a week, whereas readers of quality titles like The Daily Telegraph and The Times and mid-market tabloids such as the Daily Mail were more likely to be prepared to pay more than £1 a week, with the vast majority of these choosing £1-1.49 a week.

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Figure 1: National newspapers print market size and forecast, 2005-15
            • Print market contracts significantly
              • Digital audiences growing strongly
                • Managing the transition to digital is biggest challenge for future
                  • Market factors
                    • Print readership levels on steady downward trajectory
                      • Competition on the up
                        • Paywall or not to paywall, that is the question
                          • Companies, brands and innovation
                            • Figure 2: Market shares of national newspaper publishers, by total volume, 2010
                          • News International dominates
                            • No new players but plenty of innovation
                              • The consumer
                                • Figure 3: Types of national newspapers read regularly (hard copy or online), November 2010
                              • Popular tabloids lead the way
                                • A desire to rebalance content?
                                  • Two in five prepared to pay for online content
                                    • What we think
                                    • Issues in the Market

                                        • How can national newspapers respond to continued economic weakness?
                                          • How can national newspapers respond to declining print circulations?
                                            • What are the prospects for newspapers wishing to charge for website access?
                                              • What else can newspapers do to try and develop new revenue streams?
                                              • Future Opportunities

                                                • Making the step from informers to educators?
                                                  • Regaining a clear political voice
                                                  • Internal Market Environment

                                                    • Key points
                                                      • Print readership on a linear downward trajectory
                                                        • Figure 4: Trends in the readership* of national daily newspapers, 1971-2010
                                                      • Competition hots up…
                                                        • Figure 5: Trends in average weekly TV viewing per person, Jan 2005-11
                                                        • Figure 6: Trends in weekly viewing of TV news channels per person, January 2005-11
                                                        • Figure 7: Trends in average weekly hours of radio listening per listener, March 2005-December 2010
                                                        • Figure 8: Trends in average weekly hours of radio listening per listener by broad sector, March 2005-December 2010
                                                      • …particularly online
                                                        • Figure 9: Trends in broadband penetration, 2004-10
                                                        • Figure 10: Trends in monthly unique visitors to news and information websites in the UK, January 2005-January 2011
                                                        • Figure 11: Device ownership for smartphones and e-book readers, July 2009-October 2010
                                                      • Newspaper publishers continue develop their own online presence
                                                        • Figure 12: Multi-platform data*, February 2010 and January 2011
                                                      • A variety of strategies to boost circulation
                                                        • Figure 13: Lesser-rate and prepaid subscriptions sales, bulk copies, and sales outside UK and RoI as percentage of average circulation, December 2010
                                                      • The price is right?
                                                        • Figure 14: Basic UK cover prices for national dailies and Sundays, December 2010
                                                      • Paid-for or free – the consumer will decide
                                                        • Figure 15: Trends in monthly unique visitors to selected news international news websites, November 2009-January 2011
                                                      • Newspapers seen as good for depth and accuracy
                                                        • Figure 16: Attitudes towards news sources, April 2010
                                                    • Broader Market Environment

                                                      • Key points
                                                        • Slow economic recovery in prospect
                                                          • Figure 17: GDP, PDI, consumer expenditure and savings, at constant 2005 prices, 2005-15
                                                          • Figure 18: GDP quarterly percentage change, Q1 2005-Q4 2010
                                                          • Figure 19: Gfk NOP Consumer confidence index, January 2008-February 2011
                                                        • Recession prompts switch to free media
                                                          • Figure 20: Things people are doing in response to the recession, November 2009
                                                        • Ageing population suits mid-market and quality titles… for now
                                                          • Figure 21: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2005-15
                                                        • AB growth is positive for newspapers
                                                          • Figure 22: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2005-15
                                                        • Retired lifestage has good spending power
                                                          • Figure 23: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2005-15
                                                        • Higher education growth good for newspapers
                                                          • Figure 24: Qualifications obtained by students on HE courses at HEIs in the UK, by level of study, 2005/06 - 2009/10
                                                      • Competitive Context

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • Internet and TV provide stiff competition
                                                            • Figure 25: Agreement with attitudes towards news and newspapers, 2010
                                                          • Pure-play sites eat into generalists’ business
                                                            • Figure 26: Selected examples of websites and blogs, by topic*, January 2011
                                                          • Not just the internet but free titles too
                                                            • Figure 27: Average daily distribution of audited free dailies, 2005-10
                                                          • Regional titles provide alternative to nationals
                                                            • Figure 28: Total number of regional newspaper titles, by type, 2011*
                                                        • Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market

                                                            • Strengths
                                                              • Brand/reputation
                                                                • Values
                                                                  • Trust
                                                                    • Analysis
                                                                      • Simplicity
                                                                        • Weaknesses
                                                                          • Lack of immediacy
                                                                            • Vulnerability to online competition
                                                                              • Perceptions of business ethics
                                                                                • Time, or the lack of it
                                                                                  • Too much focus on celebrities and gossip
                                                                                  • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • New print title enters the fray
                                                                                        • New dedicated iPad title launches but only in US for now
                                                                                          • Apps offer potential to extend reach and develop new revenue streams
                                                                                            • Paying for website access
                                                                                              • Can the freesheet model be made to work?
                                                                                              • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • Print market contracts significantly
                                                                                                    • Figure 29: Total annual sales of national daily and sunday newspapers, 2005-15
                                                                                                  • Monetising the shift to multi-platform
                                                                                                    • Forecast
                                                                                                      • Figure 30: National newspapers market size forecast (value), 2005-15
                                                                                                      • Figure 31: National newspapers market size forecast (volume), 2005-15
                                                                                                  • Segment Performance

                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                      • Dailies outperform Sundays
                                                                                                        • Figure 32: Trends in circulations of national newspapers by broad sector, 2005-10
                                                                                                        • Figure 33: Trends in average circulation of national newspapers by broad sector, 2005-10
                                                                                                      • Quality titles hit hard
                                                                                                        • Figure 34: Trends in average circulation/issue of newspapers by segment, 2006, 2008 and 2010
                                                                                                    • Market Share

                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                        • The dailies
                                                                                                          • Figure 35: National daily newspaper circulations, 2006, 2008 and 2010
                                                                                                        • The Sundays
                                                                                                          • Figure 36: National sunday newspaper circulations, 2006, 2008 and 2010
                                                                                                        • Online
                                                                                                          • Figure 37: Leading online news sites by numbers of UK unique monthly browsers, February 2011
                                                                                                        • Overall market shares
                                                                                                          • Figure 38: Market shares of national newspaper publishers, by total volume, 2006-10
                                                                                                      • Companies and Products

                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                          • Associated Newspapers
                                                                                                              • Figure 39: Key financial data for Associated Newspapers, 2005-09
                                                                                                              • Figure 40: Breakdown of turnover, 2008-09
                                                                                                            • Express Newspapers
                                                                                                                • Figure 41: Express Newspapers results, 2005-09
                                                                                                              • Financial Times Ltd
                                                                                                                  • Figure 42: Key financial data for Financial Times Ltd, 2005-09
                                                                                                                • Guardian Media Group plc
                                                                                                                    • Figure 43: Key financial data for Guardian News and Media Ltd, 2006-10
                                                                                                                  • Independent Print Ltd
                                                                                                                    • News International
                                                                                                                        • Figure 44: Key financial data for News Group Newspapers Ltd, 2006-10
                                                                                                                        • Figure 45: Key financial data for Times Newspapers ltd, 2006-10
                                                                                                                      • Telegraph Media Group
                                                                                                                        • Figure 46: Key financial data for Telegraph Media Group Ltd, 2006-10
                                                                                                                      • Trinity Mirror Group
                                                                                                                          • Figure 47: Key financial data for Trinity Mirror Plc, 2006-11
                                                                                                                          • Figure 48: Trinity mirror plc turnover by broad segment, 2007-11
                                                                                                                      • Brand Research

                                                                                                                        • Brand map
                                                                                                                            • Figure 49: Attitudes towards and usage of newspaper brands, December 2010
                                                                                                                          • Brand attitudes
                                                                                                                            • Figure 50: Attitudes by newspaper brand, December 2010
                                                                                                                          • Brand personality
                                                                                                                            • Figure 51: newspaper brand personality – macro image, December 2010
                                                                                                                            • Figure 52: newspaper brand personality – micro image, December 2010
                                                                                                                          • Correspondence analysis
                                                                                                                            • Brand experience
                                                                                                                              • Figure 53: newspaper brand usage, December 2010
                                                                                                                              • Figure 54: Satisfaction with various newspaper brands, December 2010
                                                                                                                              • Figure 55: Consideration of newspaper brands, December 2010
                                                                                                                              • Figure 56: Consumer perceptions of current newspaper brand performance, December 2010
                                                                                                                              • Figure 57: newspaper brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, December 2010
                                                                                                                            • Brand index
                                                                                                                              • Figure 58: newspaper brand index, December 2010
                                                                                                                              • Figure 59: newspaper brand index vs. recommendation, December 2010
                                                                                                                            • Target group analysis
                                                                                                                              • Figure 60: Target groups, December 2010
                                                                                                                              • Figure 61: newspaper brand usage, by target groups, December 2010
                                                                                                                            • Group One – The Conformists
                                                                                                                              • Group Two – Simply the Best
                                                                                                                                • Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
                                                                                                                                  • Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
                                                                                                                                    • Group Five – The Individualists
                                                                                                                                    • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                        • TV is favoured medium for newspaper promotion
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 62: Main monitored media adspend for national newspapers by media type, 2005/06-2009/10
                                                                                                                                        • Spend levels broadly reflect market position
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 63: Main monitored media adspend for national newspapers, by publisher, 2005/06-2009/10
                                                                                                                                        • Telegraph and Independent groups plough a different furrow
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 64: Main monitored adspend by publisher, by media type, 2009/10*
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 65: Main monitored adspend for national newspapers by title, by media type, 2009/10*
                                                                                                                                        • Switch in focus from sales promotion to customer retention
                                                                                                                                        • What National Newspapers Do People Read?

                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                            • Almost six in ten read a national newspaper in hard copy or online
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 66: National newspapers read regularly (hard copy or online), November 2010
                                                                                                                                            • How do readers of different types of newspaper compare?
                                                                                                                                              • How much overlap is there between genres and titles?
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 67: National newspapers read regularly (hard copy or online) by national newspapers read regularly (hard copy or online), November 2010
                                                                                                                                            • What Are People’s Attitudes Towards National Newspapers?

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • A desire to rebalance content?
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 68: Attitudes towards national newspapers, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                • Inform and keep in check but don’t insult the reader’s intelligence
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 69: Attitudes towards national newspapers, by national newspapers read regularly (hard copy or online), November 2010
                                                                                                                                              • How Much Would People Be Prepared to Pay to Access Newspaper Websites?

                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                  • Almost two in five prepared to pay to access newspaper websites
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 70: Amount per week people are prepared to pay to access website of newspaper they read most often, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                  • Quality newspaper readers prepared to pay more for website access
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 71: Amount people are prepared to pay to access website of newspaper they read most often by national newspapers read regularly (hard copy or online), November 2010
                                                                                                                                                  • Scope for combined hard copy and digital offers?
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 72: Amount people are prepared to pay to access website of newspaper they read most often by attitudes towards national newspapers, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Internal Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 73: Trends in average weekly TV viewing per person, January 2005-February 2011
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 74: Trends in weekly viewing of TV news channels per person, January 2005-February 2011
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 75: Trends in average weekly hours of radio listening per listener, March 2005-December 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 76: Trends in average weekly hours of radio listening per listener, by broad sector, March 2005-December 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 77: Trends in monthly unique visitors to news and information websites in the UK, January 2005-February 2011
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 78: Trends in monthly unique visitors to selected news international news websites, November 2009-February 2011
                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Market Size Forecast

                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 79: market size and forecast for national newspapers, 2005-15
                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – What National Newspapers Do People Read?

                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 80: National newspapers read regularly (hard copy or online), by demographics, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                  • Repertoire analysis
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 81: Repertoire of national newspapers read regularly (hard copy or online), November 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 82: National newspapers read regularly (hard copy or online), by repertoire of national newspapers read regularly (hard copy or online), November 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 83: Repertoire of national newspapers read regularly (hard copy or online), by demographics, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – What Are People’s Attitudes Towards National Newspapers?

                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 84: Attitudes towards national newspapers, by demographics, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 85: Attitudes towards national newspapers, by attitudes towards national newspapers, November 2010
                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – How Much Would People Be Prepared to Pay to Access Newspaper Websites?

                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 86: Amount per week people are prepared to pay to access website of newspaper they read most often, November 2010

                                                                                                                                                Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                • America Online UK (AOL UK)
                                                                                                                                                • Associated Newspapers Ltd
                                                                                                                                                • Audit Bureau of Circulations
                                                                                                                                                • British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC)
                                                                                                                                                • British Market Research Bureau (BMRB)
                                                                                                                                                • Daily Express
                                                                                                                                                • Daily Mail
                                                                                                                                                • Daily Mirror (The)
                                                                                                                                                • Daily Record & Sunday Mail
                                                                                                                                                • Daily Star (The)
                                                                                                                                                • DC Thomson & Co Ltd
                                                                                                                                                • ESPN, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                • Evening Standard
                                                                                                                                                • Express Newspapers plc
                                                                                                                                                • Financial Times Group
                                                                                                                                                • Guardian Media Group
                                                                                                                                                • Higher Education Statistics Agency
                                                                                                                                                • Independent (The)
                                                                                                                                                • ITV plc
                                                                                                                                                • Johnston Press plc
                                                                                                                                                • London Stock Exchange plc
                                                                                                                                                • Metro (The)
                                                                                                                                                • News Corporation (The)
                                                                                                                                                • News International PLC
                                                                                                                                                • News of the World
                                                                                                                                                • Northern and Shell Media Publications
                                                                                                                                                • Observer (The)
                                                                                                                                                • Oxford University Press
                                                                                                                                                • Pearson plc
                                                                                                                                                • Racing Post
                                                                                                                                                • Reuters Group PLC
                                                                                                                                                • Telegraph Group Limited
                                                                                                                                                • The Herald
                                                                                                                                                • The New York Times Company
                                                                                                                                                • The Sun
                                                                                                                                                • The Sunday Post
                                                                                                                                                • The Times Newspaper
                                                                                                                                                • Trinity Mirror plc
                                                                                                                                                • Turner Broadcasting System, Inc.

                                                                                                                                                National Newspapers - UK - March 2011

                                                                                                                                                £1,750.00 (Excl.Tax)