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Natural Products Marketplace Review: Refrigerated and Frozen - US - December 2009

Natural and organic food and drink sales experienced strong growth over the last decade, and in particular in the last five years as mainstream FDM aggressively started stocking natural/organic name and private label brands. The recession has curtailed growth in the short term, and in this report Mintel discusses how consumer trends, the economy and new product trends are influencing the market. In addition to presenting sales data by segment, supplier and brand, the report considers a range of topics, including:

  • The size of the natural/organic beverages market in FDMx and natural supermarkets, and Mintel’s forecast through 2012
  • How the economic recession, and a shift towards frugality has hurt certain sectors of the natural/organic beverages market, and how retailers and manufacturers alike have responded
  • The rise of natural/organic private label brands as consumers trade down, but not out, of the organic marketplace
  • The latest new product trends that are going “beyond natural/organic” with other feature sets appealing to the natural and organic consumer
  • To what extent confusion over “natural” and “organic” terms are impacting the market
  • Changes in shopping behavior versus last year among consumers who buy natural and organic products

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Organic definition
          • Natural definition
            • Data sources
              • Sales data
                • Consumer survey data
                  • Advertising clips
                    • Abbreviations and terms
                      • Abbreviations
                        • Terms
                        • Executive Summary

                            • The $5.5 billion natural/organic frozen and refrigerated foods market slows
                              • Segment performance
                                • Natural/organic dairy products
                                  • Natural/organic entrées & meat/meat alternatives
                                    • Natural/organic packaged produce
                                      • Natural/organic bread/baked goods
                                        • Natural/organic other frozen and refrigerated foods
                                          • Retailer performance
                                            • Leading companies
                                              • Innovations
                                                • Consumer attitudes and behavior
                                                • Insights and Opportunities

                                                  • Companies compete for market share with “feel good” marketing plans
                                                    • 2.0 versions of classic foods might sway some consumers
                                                    • Inspire Insights

                                                        • Cause and Consistency
                                                          • After summer comes to a close
                                                            • It’s a thin line between love and hate
                                                              • A World of Good
                                                                • Label claims sound good, but are they?
                                                                  • It’s still about selling product
                                                                  • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                    • Recession slows sales growth significantly but rebound will be steady
                                                                      • Sales and forecast of natural/organic frozen and refrigerated foods
                                                                        • Figure 1: U.S. FDMx and natural supermarket sales and forecast of natural/organic frozen and refrigerated foods, at current prices, 2006-12
                                                                        • Figure 2: U.S. FDMx and natural supermarket sales and forecast of natural/organic frozen and refrigerated foods, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-12
                                                                    • Segment Performance

                                                                      • Natural/organic dairy and produce segments make gains 2007-09
                                                                        • Sales of natural/organic frozen and refrigerated foods, by segment
                                                                          • Figure 3: FDMx and natural supermarket sales of natural/organic frozen and refrigerated foods, by type, 2007 and 2009
                                                                      • Segment Performance—Natural/Organic Dairy Products

                                                                        • The largest segment performs well in 2009, with swift gains in 2010 expected
                                                                          • Sales and forecast of natural/organic dairy products
                                                                            • Figure 4: FDMx and natural supermarket sales and forecast of natural/organic dairy products*, 2006-12
                                                                        • Segment Performance—Natural/Organic Entrées and Meat/Meat Alternatives

                                                                          • Slower road of recovery for discretionary frozen/refrigerated foods
                                                                            • Sales and forecast of natural/organic entrées & meat/meat alternatives
                                                                              • Figure 5: FDMx and natural supermarket sales and forecast of natural/organic entrées & meat/meat alternatives, 2006-12
                                                                          • Segment Performance—Natural/Organic Packaged Produce

                                                                            • Healthy eating trend tips segment more than $1 billion in 2009
                                                                              • Sales and forecast of natural/organic packaged produce
                                                                                • Figure 6: FDMx and natural supermarket sales and forecast of natural/organic packaged produce, at current prices, 2006-12
                                                                            • Segment Performance—Natural/Organic Bread/Baked Goods

                                                                                • Eating-in trend helps the $600 million segment through 2009
                                                                                  • Sales and forecast of natural/organic bread/baked goods
                                                                                    • Figure 7: FDMx and natural supermarket sales and forecast of natural/organic bread/baked goods, at current prices, 2006-12
                                                                                • Segment Performance—Natural/Organic Other Frozen and Refrigerated Foods

                                                                                    • Consumers shun some discretionary goods but recovery expected
                                                                                      • Sales and forecast of natural/organic other frozen and refrigerated foods
                                                                                        • Figure 8: FDMx and natural supermarket sales and forecast of natural/organic other frozen and refrigerated foods, at current prices, 2006-12
                                                                                    • Retail Channels

                                                                                      • Solid performance in all outlets despite downturn
                                                                                        • Sales of natural/organic frozen and refrigerated foods, by channel
                                                                                          • Figure 9: FDMx and natural supermarket sales of natural/organic frozen and refrigerated foods, by channel, 2006-09
                                                                                        • Consumer demand tugs at the heart of retailer product mix
                                                                                        • Retail Channels—Supermarkets

                                                                                          • Sales of natural/organic products slow considerably in supermarkets in 2009
                                                                                            • Supermarket/food stores’ sales of natural/organic frozen and refrigerated foods
                                                                                              • Figure 10: Conventional supermarket sales of natural/organic frozen and refrigerated foods, 2006-09
                                                                                          • Retail Channels—Natural Foods Supermarkets

                                                                                            • Committed consumers keep natural markets growing
                                                                                              • Natural supermarket sales of natural/organic frozen and refrigerated foods
                                                                                                • Figure 11: Natural product supermarket retail sales of natural/organic frozen and refrigerated foods, 2006-09
                                                                                            • Market Drivers

                                                                                              • Unemployment spurs consumers to scale back on discretionary natural/organic products
                                                                                                • Lower food prices also deter natural/organic purchases
                                                                                                  • Natural and organic are more than foods—they’re a lifestyle
                                                                                                  • Leading Companies

                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                      • Manufacturer sales of natural/organic frozen and refrigerated* foods - FDMx
                                                                                                        • Figure 12: FDMx sales of natural/organic frozen and refrigerated* foods, by manufacturer, 2008-09
                                                                                                      • Manufacturer sales of natural/organic frozen and refrigerated* foods - natural supermarkets
                                                                                                        • Figure 13: Natural supermarket sales of natural/organic frozen and refrigerated* foods, by manufacturer, 2008-09
                                                                                                    • Brand Share—Natural/Organic Dairy Products

                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                        • Manufacturer sales of natural/organic dairy products - FDMx
                                                                                                          • Figure 14: FDMx sales of natural/organic dairy products*, by manufacturer and brand, 2008-09
                                                                                                        • CROPP and Groupe Danone grab 30% share in natural markets
                                                                                                          • Manufacturer sales of natural/organic dairy products* - natural supermarkets
                                                                                                            • Figure 15: Natural supermarket sales of natural/organic dairy products*, by manufacturer, 2008-09
                                                                                                        • Brand Share—Natural/Organic Entrées and Meat/Meat Alternatives

                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                            • Kellogg and Amy’s Kitchen account for 40% segment share in FDMx
                                                                                                              • Manufacturer sales of natural/organic entrées and meat/meat alternatives - FDMx
                                                                                                                • Figure 16: FDMx sales of natural/organic entrées & meat/meat alternatives, by manufacturer and brand, 2008-09
                                                                                                              • Applegate Farms’ organic and antibiotic-free meats perform well in 2009
                                                                                                                • Manufacturer sales of natural/organic entrées and meat/meat alternatives - natural supermarkets
                                                                                                                  • Figure 17: Natural supermarket sales of natural/organic entrées & meat/meat alternatives, by manufacturer and brand, 2008-09
                                                                                                              • Brand Share—Natural/Organic Packaged Produce

                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                  • Two prominent players in FDMx tally 30% of segment sales
                                                                                                                    • Manufacturer sales of natural/organic packaged produce - FDMx
                                                                                                                      • Figure 18: FDMx sales of natural/organic packaged produce, by manufacturer and brand, 2008-09
                                                                                                                    • Pesticide fears attract consumers with targeted purchases
                                                                                                                      • Manufacturer sales of natural/organic packaged produce - natural supermarkets
                                                                                                                        • Figure 19: Natural supermarket sales of natural/organic packaged produce, by manufacturer and brand, 2008-09
                                                                                                                    • Brand Share—Natural/Organic Bread/Baked Goods

                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                          • Sector grows, but smaller brands suffer in FDMx
                                                                                                                            • Manufacturer sales of natural/organic bread/baked goods - FDMx
                                                                                                                              • Figure 20: FDMx sales of natural/organic bread/baked goods, by manufacturer and brand, 2008-09
                                                                                                                            • Two leading companies drive growth in the natural channel
                                                                                                                              • Manufacturer sales of natural/organic bread/baked goods - natural supermarkets
                                                                                                                                • Figure 21: Natural supermarket sales of natural/organic bread/baked goods, by manufacturer and brand, 2008-09
                                                                                                                            • Brand Share—Natural/Organic Other Frozen and Refrigerated Foods

                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                  • Private label remains an untapped opportunity in segment in FDMx
                                                                                                                                    • Manufacturer sales of natural/organic other frozen and refrigerated foods - FDMx
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 22: FDMx sales of natural/organic other frozen and refrigerated foods, by manufacturer and brand, 2008-09
                                                                                                                                    • Segment’s solid performance is a collaborative effort
                                                                                                                                      • Manufacturer sales of natural/organic other frozen and refrigerated foods - natural supermarkets
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 23: Natural supermarket sales of natural/organic other frozen and refrigerated foods, by manufacturer and brand, 2008-09
                                                                                                                                    • Innovations and Innovators

                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                          • Frozen and refrigerated organic foods
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 24: Frozen and refrigerated organic foods new product launches, by food type, 1998-2009*
                                                                                                                                          • Frozen and refrigerated natural foods
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 25: Frozen and refrigerated natural* foods new product launches, by food type, 1998-2009**
                                                                                                                                          • Natural and organic frozen and refrigerated food innovations
                                                                                                                                            • Organic innovations target with ethnic appeal and convenience
                                                                                                                                              • All-natural innovations target convenience and super-premium tastes
                                                                                                                                                • All-natural, gourmet
                                                                                                                                                  • All-natural meat and cheese offerings compete with like-products to traditional variants
                                                                                                                                                    • Organic, dairy-free, and functional: Three-pronged appeal
                                                                                                                                                      • Biodegradable packaging compliments all-natural seafood
                                                                                                                                                        • Private label offerings highlight gourmet and premium
                                                                                                                                                        • Advertising and Promotion

                                                                                                                                                          • Overview
                                                                                                                                                            • Cascadian Farm goes transparent
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 26: Cascadian Farm. “Gene Kahn holds a box of Raspberries,” 2008
                                                                                                                                                            • Brands and retailers alike stress support of local, family farms
                                                                                                                                                              • Organic Valley targets consumers with local, family farm message
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 27: Organic Valley “Local, organic dairy,” 2009
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 28: Organic Valley “Mother nature still the boss,” Press ad, 2009
                                                                                                                                                            • The Consumer and the Natural/Organic Foods Market

                                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                • Trust and understanding of natural and organic terms
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 29: Trust and understanding of the terms “natural” and “organic,” September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                  • Attitudes towards natural/organic products
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 30: Factors influencing decision to buy natural/organic food and beverages, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                  • Consumer attitudes towards price, healthfulness and label claims
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 31: Willingness to pay for natural/organic products, and attitudes towards healthfulness and belief in natural and organic claims, by age, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                  • Natural/Organic Purchase Behavior

                                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                      • Outlets where consumers purchase natural/organic products
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 32: Where people buy organic food and beverages, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Incidence of buying natural/organic products
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 33: Incidence of buying organic and natural food and beverages, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Impact of recession on consumer purchases of natural/organic products
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 34: Impact of recession on purchase of natural products, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 35: Impact of recession on purchase of organic products, by age, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                        • Purchase behavior by sector
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 36: Change in incidence of buying organic food and drink, this year comapred to last, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                        • Popular brands of natural and organic foods/beverages
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 37: Brands of organic and natural food and drink purchased in the past year, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Natural/Organic Frozen and Refrigerated Food and Drink Consumption

                                                                                                                                                                          • Purchase of natural/organic meat and seafood in past year
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 38: Natural and organic meat and seafood purchases in past year, by sub-category, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Purchase of natural/organic meat and milk alternatives in past year
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 39: Natural and organic meat and milk alternative purchases in past year, by sub-category, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Purchase of natural/organic dairy products in past year
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 40: Natural and organic other dairy purchases in past year, by sub-category, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Purchase of natural/organic frozen foods in past year
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 41: Natural and organic frozen food purchases in past year, by sub-category, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                        • Cluster Analysis

                                                                                                                                                                            • Maintainers
                                                                                                                                                                              • Rearrangers
                                                                                                                                                                                • Hard Drivers
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Cluster characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 42: Natural products clusters, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 43: Factors influencing decision to buy natural/organic food and beverages, by natural products clusters, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 44: Impact of recession on purchase of natural/organic products, by natural products clusters, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 45: Willingness to pay for natural/organic products, and attitudes towards healthfulness and belief in natural and organic claims, by natural products clusters, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 46: Brands of organic and natural food and drink purchased in the past year, by natural products clusters, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 47: Organic meat and seafood purchases in past year, by sub-category, by natural products clusters, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 48: Natural meat and seafood purchases in past year, by sub-category, by natural products clusters, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 49: Organic meat and milk alternative purchases in past year, by sub-category, by natural products clusters, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 50: Natural meat and milk alternative purchases in past year, by sub-category, by natural products clusters, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 51: Organic other dairy purchases in past year, by sub-category, by natural products clusters, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 52: Natural other dairy purchases in past year, by sub-category, by natural products clusters, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 53: Organic frozen food purchases in past year, by sub-category, by natural products clusters, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 54: Natural frozen food purchases in past year, by sub-category, by natural products clusters, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Cluster demographics
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 55: Natural products clusters, by gender, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 56: Natural products clusters, by age group, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 57: Natural products clusters, by household income, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 58: Natural products clusters, by race, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 59: Natural products clusters, by Hispanic origin, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Cluster methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix: Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                                                    Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                    • Aldi (USA)
                                                                                                                                                                                    • American Herbal Products Association
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Amy's Kitchen Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Applegate Farms
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Boca Foods Company
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Campbell Soup Company
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Coca-Cola Company (The) (USA)
                                                                                                                                                                                    • ConAgra Foods, Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Dreyer's Grand Ice Cream Holdings, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Driscoll Strawberry Associates
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Eggland's Best, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Federal Trade Commission
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Food Marketing Institute
                                                                                                                                                                                    • General Mills Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Global Berry Farms LLC
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Greenfield Online
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Grocery Manufacturers Association (GMA)
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Grocery Manufacturers of America (GMA)
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Groupe Danone
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Häagen-Dazs
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Interstate Bakeries Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Kashi Co. Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Kellogg Company
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Kettle Foods, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Kraft Foods Inc. (U.S.A.)
                                                                                                                                                                                    • La Brea Holdings, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Laura's Lean Beef Company
                                                                                                                                                                                    • National Nutritional Foods Association
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Newman's Own Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Organic Alliance
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Organic Consumers Association
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Organic Trade Association
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Pepperidge Farm Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Pepsi-Cola North America
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Rudi's Organic Bakery, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Safeway Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Santa Sweets
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Starbucks Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Stonyfield Farm
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Supervalu Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Tesco (US)
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Trader Joe's Company Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                    • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
                                                                                                                                                                                    • U.S. Department of Agriculture
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Unilever USA
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Walmart Stores (USA)
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Whole Foods Market Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Wm. Bolthouse Farms Inc.

                                                                                                                                                                                    Natural Products Marketplace Review: Refrigerated and Frozen - US - December 2009

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