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Natural Products Marketplace Review: Shelf-stable Foods - US - December 2009

Natural and organic food and drink sales experienced strong growth over the last decade, and in particular in the last five years as mainstream FDM aggressively started stocking natural/organic name and private label brands. The recession has curtailed growth in the short term, and in this report Mintel discusses how consumer trends, the economy and new product trends are influencing the market. In addition to presenting sales data by segment, supplier and brand, the report considers a range of topics, including:

  • The size of the natural/organic beverages market in FDMx and natural supermarkets, and Mintel’s forecast through 2012
  • How the economic recession, and a shift towards frugality has hurt certain sectors of the natural/organic beverages market, and how retailers and manufacturers alike have responded
  • The rise of natural/organic private label brands as consumers trade down, but not out, of the organic marketplace
  • The latest new product trends that are going “beyond natural/organic” with other feature sets appealing to the natural and organic consumer
  • To what extent confusion over “natural” and “organic” terms are impacting the market
  • Changes in shopping behavior versus last year among consumers who buy natural and organic products

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Organic definition
          • Natural definition
            • Data sources
              • Sales data
                • Consumer survey data
                  • Advertising clips
                    • Abbreviations and terms
                      • Abbreviations
                        • Terms
                        • Executive Summary

                            • The $6 billion natural/organic shelf-stable foods market levels off in 2008-09
                              • Segment performance
                                • Natural/organic spreads, sauces, seasonings and oils
                                  • Natural/organic side dishes, entrées and mixes
                                    • Natural/organic sweet snacks and desserts
                                      • Savory snacks
                                        • Natural/organic other shelf-stable foods
                                          • Retailer performance
                                            • Leading companies
                                              • Innovations
                                                • Consumer attitudes and behavior
                                                • Insights and Opportunities

                                                  • Companies compete for market share with “feel good” marketing plans
                                                    • 2.0 versions of classic foods might sway some consumers
                                                    • Inspire Insights

                                                        • Cause and Consistency
                                                          • After summer comes to a close
                                                            • It’s a thin line between love and hate
                                                              • A World of Good
                                                                • Label claims sound good, but are they?
                                                                  • It’s still about selling product
                                                                  • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                    • Eating-in trend helps the $6 billion natural/organic shelf-stable foods market through the recession
                                                                      • Sales and forecast of natural/organic shelf-stable foods
                                                                        • Figure 1: U.S. FDMx and natural supermarket sales and forecast of natural/organic shelf-stable foods, at current prices, 2006-12
                                                                        • Figure 2: U.S. FDMx and natural supermarket sales and forecast of natural/organic shelf-stable foods, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-12
                                                                    • Segment Performance

                                                                      • Natural/organic side dishes and savory snacks make gains 2007-09
                                                                        • Sales of natural/organic shelf-stable foods, by segment
                                                                          • Figure 3: FDMx and natural supermarket sales of natural/organic shelf-stable foods, by type, 2007 and 2009
                                                                      • Segment Performance—Natural/Organic Spreads, Sauces, Seasonings and Oils

                                                                        • Largest segment expected to grow 26% through 2012
                                                                          • Sales and forecast of natural/organic spreads, sauces, seasonings and oils
                                                                            • Figure 4: FDMx and natural supermarket sales and forecast of natural/organic spreads, sauces, seasonings and oils, at current prices, 2006-12
                                                                        • Segment Performance—Natural/Organic Side Dishes, Entrées and Mixes

                                                                          • Consumers seeking healthy meals at home help stimulate sales
                                                                            • Sales and forecast of natural/organic side dishes, entrées and mixes
                                                                              • Figure 5: FDMx and natural supermarket sales and forecast of natural/organic side dishes, entrées and mixes, at current prices, 2006-12
                                                                          • Segment Performance—Natural/Organic Sweet Snacks and Desserts

                                                                            • Natural/organic shelf-stable sweets lose their luster for the moment
                                                                              • Sales and forecast of natural/organic sweet snacks and desserts
                                                                                • Figure 6: FDMx and natural supermarket sales and forecast of natural/organic sweet snacks and desserts, at current prices, 2006-12
                                                                            • Segment Performance—Natural/Organic Savory Snacks

                                                                              • Strong 2009 sales of $1 billion help snack segment outpace total market growth
                                                                                • Sales and forecast of natural/organic savory snacks
                                                                                  • Figure 7: FDMx and natural supermarket sales and forecast of natural/organic savory snacks, at current prices, 2006-12
                                                                              • Segment Performance—Natural/Organic Other Shelf-Stable Foods

                                                                                  • Combo of commodities help the segment through the recession
                                                                                    • Sales and forecast of natural/organic other shelf-stable foods
                                                                                      • Figure 8: FDMx and natural supermarket sales and forecast of natural/organic other shelf-stable foods, at current prices, 2006-12
                                                                                  • Retail Channels

                                                                                    • Good growth in natural markets outpaces mainstream FDMx
                                                                                      • Sales of natural/organic shelf-stable foods, by channel
                                                                                        • Figure 9: FDMx and natural supermarket sales of natural/organic shelf-stable foods, by channel, 2006-09
                                                                                      • Consumer demand tugs at the heart of retailer product mix
                                                                                      • Retail Channels—Supermarkets

                                                                                        • With competition and the recession, supermarkets struggle to grow natural/organic market in 2009
                                                                                          • Supermarket/food stores’ sales of natural/organic shelf-stable foods
                                                                                            • Figure 10: Conventional supermarket sales of natural/organic shelf-stable foods, 2006-09
                                                                                        • Retail Channels—Natural Foods Supermarkets

                                                                                          • Strong 2008 carries over to solid 2009 despite economy
                                                                                            • Natural supermarket sales of natural/organic shelf-stable foods
                                                                                              • Figure 11: Natural product supermarket retail sales of natural/organic shelf-stable foods, 2006-09
                                                                                          • Market Drivers

                                                                                            • Unemployment spurs consumers to scale back on discretionary natural/organic products
                                                                                              • Lower food prices also deter natural/organic purchases
                                                                                                • Natural and organic are more than foods—they’re a lifestyle
                                                                                                • Leading Companies

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Manufacturer sales of natural/organic shelf-stable foods - FDMx
                                                                                                      • Figure 12: FDMx sales of natural/organic shelf-stable foods, by manufacturer, 2008-09
                                                                                                    • Manufacturer sales of natural/organic shelf-stable foods - natural supermarkets
                                                                                                      • Figure 13: Natural supermarket sales of natural/organic shelf-stable foods, by manufacturer, 2008-09
                                                                                                  • Brand Share—Natural/Organic Spreads, Sauces, Seasonings and Oils

                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                      • Big players hold their own and private label sees big gains in 2009
                                                                                                        • Manufacturer sales of natural/organic spreads, sauces, seasonings and oils - FDMx
                                                                                                          • Figure 14: FDMx sales of natural/organic spreads, sauces, seasonings and oils, by manufacturer and brand, 2008-09
                                                                                                        • Hain Celestial dominates in natural supermarkets, while many smaller brands compete successfully too
                                                                                                          • Manufacturer sales of natural/organic spreads, sauces, seasonings and oils – natural supermarkets
                                                                                                            • Figure 15: Natural supermarket sales of natural/organic spreads, sauces, seasonings and oils, by manufacturer and brand, 2008-09
                                                                                                        • Brand Share—Natural/Organic Side Dishes, Entrées and Mixes

                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                            • PepsiCo and private label brands account for 20% of the segment
                                                                                                              • Manufacturer sales of natural/organic side dishes, entrées and mixes - FDMx
                                                                                                                • Figure 16: FDMx sales of natural/organic side dishes, entrées and mixes, by manufacturer and brand, 2008-09
                                                                                                              • Hain Celestial Group holds its own while General Mills excels
                                                                                                                • Manufacturer sales of natural/organic side dishes, entrées and mixes - natural supermarkets
                                                                                                                  • Figure 17: Natural supermarket sales of natural/organic side dishes, entrées and mixes, by manufacturer and brand, 2008-09
                                                                                                              • Brand Share—Natural/Organic Sweet Snacks and Desserts

                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                  • “Stripped down” energy/snack bars perform well in last year
                                                                                                                    • Manufacturer sales of natural/organic sweet snacks and desserts - FDMx
                                                                                                                      • Figure 18: FDMx sales of natural/organic sweet snacks and desserts, by manufacturer and brand, 2008-09
                                                                                                                    • Clif Bar holds ground in natural markets
                                                                                                                      • Manufacturer sales of natural/organic sweet snacks and desserts - natural supermarkets
                                                                                                                        • Figure 19: Natural supermarket sales of natural/organic sweet snacks and desserts, by manufacturer, 2008-09
                                                                                                                    • Brand Share—Natural/Organic Savory Snacks

                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                        • PepsiCo brands and Kettle Foods account for 30% of the segment in FDMx
                                                                                                                          • Manufacturer sales of natural/organic savory snacks - FDMx
                                                                                                                            • Figure 20: FDMx sales of natural/organic savory snacks, by manufacturer and brand, 2008-09
                                                                                                                          • A $200 million segment led by Hain and Kettle Foods in natural markets
                                                                                                                            • Manufacturer sales of natural/organic savory snacks - natural supermarkets
                                                                                                                              • Figure 21: Natural supermarket sales of natural/organic savory snacks, by manufacturer and brand, 2008-09
                                                                                                                          • Brand Share—Natural/Organic Other Shelf-Stable Foods

                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                • Cereal brands account for the lion’s share of sales in FDMx
                                                                                                                                  • Manufacturer sales of natural/organic other shelf-stable foods - FDMx
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 22: FDMx sales of natural/organic other shelf-stable foods, by manufacturer and brand, 2008-09
                                                                                                                                  • Nature’s Path leads with strong growth in 2009 in natural markets
                                                                                                                                    • Manufacturer sales of natural/organic other shelf-stable foods - natural supermarkets
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 23: Natural supermarket sales of natural/organic other shelf-stable foods, by manufacturer and brand, 2008-09
                                                                                                                                  • Innovations and Innovators

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                        • Shelf-stable organic foods
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 24: Shelf-stable organic foods new product launches, by food type, 1998-2009*
                                                                                                                                        • Shelf-stable natural foods
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 25: Shelf-stable natural* foods new product launches, by food type, 1998-2009**
                                                                                                                                        • Natural and organic shelf-stable food innovations
                                                                                                                                          • Private label drives
                                                                                                                                            • Innovations for younger consumers
                                                                                                                                              • On the go and highly targeted offerings
                                                                                                                                              • Advertising and Promotion

                                                                                                                                                • Overview
                                                                                                                                                  • Kashi goes after young active crowd
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 26: Kellogg Company/Kashi television ad, “Jeanne Wilson active,” 2009
                                                                                                                                                  • Nature Valley hones in on active, healthy, and natural lifestyles
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 27: Nature Valley television ad, “Kelly Saunders rides through forest,” 2009
                                                                                                                                                  • Campbell’s Soup ads break it down for consumers
                                                                                                                                                  • The Consumer and the Natural/Organic Foods Market

                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                      • Trust and understanding of natural and organic terms
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 28: Trust and understanding of the terms “natural” and “organic”, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                        • Attitudes towards natural/organic products
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 29: Factors influencing decision to buy natural/organic food and beverages, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                        • Consumer attitudes towards price, healthfulness and label claims
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 30: Willingness to pay for natural/organic products, and attitudes towards healthfulness and belief in natural and organic claims, by age, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                        • Natural/Organic Purchase Behavior

                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                            • Outlets where consumers purchase natural/organic products
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 31: Where people buy organic food and beverages, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                            • Incidence of buying natural/organic products
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 32: Incidence of buying organic and natural food and beverages, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                            • Impact of recession on consumer purchases of natural/organic products
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 33: Impact of recession on purchase of natural products, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 34: Impact of recession on purchase of organic products, by age, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                              • Purchase behavior by sector
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 35: Change in incidence of buying organic food and drink, this year compared to last, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                              • Popular brands of natural and organic foods/beverages
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 36: Brands of organic and natural food and drink purchased in the past year, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                            • Natural/Organic Shelf-Stable Food Consumption

                                                                                                                                                                • Purchase of natural shelf-stable foods in past year
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 37: Other/shelf stable organic and natural food purchases in past year, by sub-category, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                              • Cluster Analysis

                                                                                                                                                                  • Maintainers
                                                                                                                                                                    • Rearrangers
                                                                                                                                                                      • Hard Drivers
                                                                                                                                                                        • Cluster characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 38: Natural products clusters, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 39: Factors influencing decision to buy natural/organic food and beverages, by natural products clusters, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 40: Impact of recession on purchase of natural/organic products, by natural products clusters, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 41: Willingness to pay for natural/organic products, and attitudes to healthfulness and belief in natural and organic claims, by natural products clusters, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 42: Brands of organic and natural food and drink purchased in the past year, by natural products clusters, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 43: Other/shelf stable organic food purchases in past year, by sub-category, by natural products clusters, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 44: Other/shelf stable natural food purchases in past year, by sub-category, by natural products clusters, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                        • Cluster demographics
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 45: Natural products clusters, by gender, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 46: Natural products clusters, by age group, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 47: Natural products clusters, by household income, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 48: Natural products clusters, by race, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 49: Natural products clusters, by Hispanic origin, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                        • Cluster methodology
                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix: Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                          • Abbott Laboratories
                                                                                                                                                                          • American Herbal Products Association
                                                                                                                                                                          • Amy's Kitchen Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                          • Barbara's Bakery Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                          • Campbell Soup Company
                                                                                                                                                                          • Clif Bar Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                          • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                                          • Coca-Cola Company (The) (USA)
                                                                                                                                                                          • Eden Foods Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                          • Federal Trade Commission
                                                                                                                                                                          • Food Marketing Institute
                                                                                                                                                                          • Frontier Natural Products Co-Op
                                                                                                                                                                          • General Mills Inc
                                                                                                                                                                          • Greenfield Online
                                                                                                                                                                          • Grocery Manufacturers of America (GMA)
                                                                                                                                                                          • Kashi Co. Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                          • Kellogg Company
                                                                                                                                                                          • Kettle Foods, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                          • McCormick & Company, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                          • National Nutritional Foods Association
                                                                                                                                                                          • Nestlé USA
                                                                                                                                                                          • Newman's Own Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                          • Organic Alliance
                                                                                                                                                                          • Organic Trade Association
                                                                                                                                                                          • Pacific Foods
                                                                                                                                                                          • Pepsi-Cola North America
                                                                                                                                                                          • Roundy's, Inc
                                                                                                                                                                          • Safeway Inc
                                                                                                                                                                          • SAM's Club
                                                                                                                                                                          • Starbucks Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                          • Stonyfield Farm
                                                                                                                                                                          • Supervalu Inc
                                                                                                                                                                          • The Hain Celestial Group, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                          • Trader Joe's Company Inc
                                                                                                                                                                          • Traditional Medicinals
                                                                                                                                                                          • Twitter, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                          • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
                                                                                                                                                                          • U.S. Department of Agriculture
                                                                                                                                                                          • Unilever USA
                                                                                                                                                                          • Walmart Stores (USA)
                                                                                                                                                                          • Westbrae
                                                                                                                                                                          • Whole Foods Market Inc

                                                                                                                                                                          Natural Products Marketplace Review: Shelf-stable Foods - US - December 2009

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