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New Retail - China - August 2017

“Not content with revolutionising China’s retail market by growing online retail, and Alibaba’s dominant share, Jack Ma is now implementing the merger of online and offline retail into ’New Retail’. But this ‘New Retail’ is not simply the sum of two parts. What we are beginning to see is an entire revolution in the way Chinese people shop, and how shopping fits into a wider environment of consumer service experience, delivered both through online portals and physical stores. This shift will profoundly change the relationship between consumers, brands and retailers, and is already changing people’s expectations and consuming lifestyles.”
– Matthew Crabbe, Director of Research, Asia-Pacific

This report looks at the following areas:

  • There’s no escaping the new reality
  • Reaching an inflection point
  • What will “Next Retail” look like?

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Covered in this Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Figure 1: Best- and worst-case forecast of total consumer online retail (B2C and C2C), China, 2012-22
          • Companies and brands
            • Figure 2: China – Leading online B2C retail portals’ share of market value (by GMV), 2015 and 2016
          • The consumer
            • Online Shoppers
              • Shopping Channels Used
                • Figure 3: Shopping channels used by consumers in the last 6 months, by product type, May 2017
              • Category channel preference
                • Figure 4: Consumer channel preference, by product category, May 2017
              • In-store shopping experience
                • Figure 5: Factors influencing consumers to shop at physical stores, May 2017
              • Online shopping experience
                • Figure 6: Factors influencing consumers to shop online, May 2017
              • Finding familiar products online
                • Figure 7: Methods consumers use to search for products online, May 2017
              • Finding unfamiliar products online
                • Figure 8: Information essential to consumers when purchasing unfamiliar products/brands online, May 2017
              • Meet the Mintropolitans
                • What we think
                • Issues and Insights

                  • There’s no escaping the new reality
                    • The facts
                      • The implications
                        • Reaching an inflection point
                          • The facts
                            • The implications
                              • What will “Next Retail” look like?
                                • The facts
                                  • The implications
                                  • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                    • “New Retail” reaches critical mass
                                      • Mass times velocity
                                        • A widening spectrum
                                        • Market Size and Forecast

                                          • Introduction
                                            • Figure 9: Best- and worst-case forecast of total consumer online retail (B2C and C2C), China, 2012-22
                                          • The C2C/B2C Shift
                                            • Figure 10: China – Total consumer online retail, by B2C/C2C, 2013-17
                                            • Figure 11: Best- and worst-case forecast of C2C consumer online retail, China, 2012-22
                                            • Figure 12: Best- and worst-case forecast of B2C consumer online retail, China, 2012-22
                                          • What is “New Retail”?
                                              • Figure 13: China – Total consumer e-commerce, B2C online retail and mobile B2C online retail within total retail sales, 2013-17
                                            • The implications of “New Retail”
                                            • Market Drivers

                                              • The growing market base
                                                  • Figure 14: China – Total internet users, online shoppers and mobile users/shoppers within total population, 2013-17
                                                • Bigger than the US
                                                  • Figure 15: China and US online retail economies compared, 2013-17
                                                • Peak per capita
                                                    • Figure 16: China – Per capita online retail spending versus per capita total retail spending, 2013-17
                                                  • Retail’s place in the wider Appconomy
                                                      • Figure 17: China – Online consumer takeaway services market value and number of users, 2013-17
                                                    • Village vending
                                                      • Figure 18: China – Rural online users, shoppers, total and per capita retail, 2013-17
                                                    • New regulations
                                                      • Value-Added Telecom Service (VATS) licence
                                                        • Cross-border e-commerce regulations
                                                        • Market Segmentation

                                                          • Sectors by value
                                                            • Figure 19: China – E-commerce retail sales of consumer goods and services, by sector, 2013-17
                                                          • Share of total retail
                                                            • Figure 20: China – E-commerce retail sectors % of total retail sectors, 2013-17
                                                        • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                                                          • The big platforms versus the big chains
                                                            • Merge and conquer
                                                              • Value, experience and robots
                                                              • Market Share

                                                                • Alibaba/JD.com dominate online
                                                                  • Figure 21: China – Leading online B2C retail portals’ share of market value (by GMV), 2015 and 2016
                                                                • The “New Retail” context
                                                                  • Figure 22: China – Leading online and chain store retailers’ retail revenues, 2015 and 2016
                                                              • Competitive Strategies

                                                                • The Alibaba economy
                                                                  • The online/offline battle for groceries
                                                                    • What future for malls in “New Retail”?
                                                                      • The battle for deliveries
                                                                        • Data is everything!
                                                                          • Has Singles’ Day had its day?
                                                                          • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                            • A value-added service
                                                                              • The augmented experience
                                                                                • Chatbots
                                                                                  • Roboshop
                                                                                  • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                    • Online reaching universality
                                                                                      • Shoppers switching to mobile
                                                                                        • Preference often trumped by convenience
                                                                                          • The instant sensual experience
                                                                                            • Price, speed and choice
                                                                                              • Finding familiar products online
                                                                                                • Building a reputation
                                                                                                  • The online-friendliest shoppers
                                                                                                  • Online Shoppers

                                                                                                    • The growing majority
                                                                                                      • Figure 23: Online purchasing among consumers in the last 6 months, May 2017
                                                                                                    • Selling the service and experience
                                                                                                    • Shopping Channels Used

                                                                                                      • You can’t smell with a smartphone
                                                                                                        • Figure 24: Shopping channels used by consumers in the last 6 months, by product type, May 2017
                                                                                                      • The mobile shopping companion
                                                                                                        • Figure 25: Percentage point difference between shopping channels used by consumers in the last 6 months, by product type, April 2016 & May 2017
                                                                                                      • More for less
                                                                                                          • Figure 26: Shopping channels used by consumers in the last 6 months (in-store), by product type, by factors influencing consumers to shop online, May 2017
                                                                                                      • Category Channel Preference

                                                                                                        • Four main sector-channel groupings
                                                                                                            • Figure 27: Consumer channel preference, by product category, May 2017
                                                                                                          • Channel use versus preference
                                                                                                              • Figure 28: Consumer channel preference, by product category, and shopping channels used by consumers in the last 6 months, by product type, May 2017
                                                                                                            • Challenge versus chore
                                                                                                                • Figure 29: Consumer channel preference, by product category, by gender and age, May 2017
                                                                                                            • In-store Shopping Experience

                                                                                                              • An immediately sensual experience
                                                                                                                • Figure 30: Factors influencing consumers to shop at physical stores, May 2017
                                                                                                              • You can’t taste or smell over the internet
                                                                                                                • Figure 31: Factors influencing consumers to shop at physical stores, by consumer channel preference (online), by product category, May 2017
                                                                                                              • Speed and efficiency versus experience
                                                                                                                • Figure 32: Factors influencing consumers to shop at physical stores, by gender and age, May 2017
                                                                                                            • Online Shopping Experience

                                                                                                              • Cheaper! Wider! Faster!
                                                                                                                • Figure 33: Factors influencing consumers to shop online, May 2017
                                                                                                              • Shout out and talk back
                                                                                                                • Figure 34: Factors influencing consumers to shop online, by information essential to consumers when purchasing unfamiliar products/brands online, May 2017
                                                                                                              • Different products; different factors
                                                                                                                • Figure 35: Factors influencing consumers to shop online, by shopping channels used per category (bought in-store) (A), May 2017
                                                                                                                • Figure 36: Factors influencing consumers to shop online, by shopping channels used per category (bought in-store) (B), May 2017
                                                                                                            • Finding Familiar Products Online

                                                                                                              • Reputation of quality ranks higher than cheap price
                                                                                                                  • Figure 37: Methods consumers use to search for products online, May 2017
                                                                                                                • Search methods by demographics
                                                                                                                  • The food factors
                                                                                                                    • Figure 38: Methods consumers use to search for products online, by shopping channels used by consumers in the last 6 months (online), May 2017
                                                                                                                  • Familiarity experience
                                                                                                                    • Figure 39: Methods consumers use to search for products online, by factors influencing consumers to shop online, May 2017
                                                                                                                • Finding Unfamiliar Products Online

                                                                                                                  • It’s all about building reputation
                                                                                                                    • Figure 40: Information essential to consumers when purchasing unfamiliar products/brands online, May 2017
                                                                                                                  • Fresh food reputation factor
                                                                                                                    • Figure 41: Information essential to consumers when purchasing unfamiliar products/brands online, by shopping channels used by consumers in the last 6 months (online), May 2017
                                                                                                                • Meet the Mintropolitans

                                                                                                                  • The online enthusiasts
                                                                                                                    • Figure 42: Online purchasing among consumers in the last 6 months, by Mintropolitan/average split, May 2017
                                                                                                                  • The drivers of online grocery growth
                                                                                                                    • Figure 43: Shopping channels used by consumers in the last 6 months, by product type, by Mintropolitan/average split, May 2017
                                                                                                                  • Research over ratings
                                                                                                                    • Figure 44: Information essential to consumers when purchasing unfamiliar products/brands online, by Mintropolitan/average split, May 2017
                                                                                                                • Appendix – Market Segmentation

                                                                                                                    • Figure 45: China – Total consumer online retail, and by B2C & C2C split, 2012-22
                                                                                                                • Appendix – Methodology and Abbreviations

                                                                                                                  • Methodology
                                                                                                                    • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                                                      • Abbreviations

                                                                                                                      Companies Covered

                                                                                                                      To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                      New Retail - China - August 2017

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