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Non-dairy Milk - US - April 2016

"Total non-dairy milk sales are expected to continue upward as consumers search for better-for-you alternatives to dairy milk, and as plant-based alternatives continue to trend to meet a variety of consumers’ dietary needs. Flavor, function, and nutritional innovation will help keep consumers interested and attract new audiences, while the wide variety of plant-based milks addresses consumers’ diverse health needs and taste preferences."
- Elizabeth Sisel, Beverage Analyst

This report discusses the following key topics:

  • Majority of non-dairy milk consumers drink dairy milk
  • Soy milk continues to lose ground
  • Room for more frequent consumption

For the purposes of this Report, Mintel has used the following definitions:

  • Almond milk
  • Coconut milk
  • Soy milk
  • Other non-dairy milks, such as cashew milk, oat milk, rice milk, etc.

Non-dairy milk includes both refrigerated and shelf-stable ready-to-drink almond milk, coconut milk, soy milk, and other refrigerated milk substitutes.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Majority of non-dairy milk consumers drink dairy milk
            • Figure 1: Dairy milk consumption – Any adult consumption, by non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, January 2016
          • Soy milk continues to lose ground
            • Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
          • Room for more frequent consumption
            • Figure 3: Non-dairy milk consumption frequency, January 2016
          • The opportunities
            • Accentuate natural qualities
              • Figure 4: Non-dairy milk preferred attributes – Any rank, January 2016
            • Emphasize taste, health benefits
              • Figure 5: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, January 2016
            • New opportunities with functionality
              • Figure 6: Non-dairy milk innovation, January 2016
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Non-dairy milk category sees stellar growth
                • Almond, coconut, “other” non-dairy milk segments on the rise
                  • Dairy milk category sees declines
                    • Health, media attention drive non-dairy milk growth
                    • Market Size and Forecast

                      • Non-dairy milk category sees stellar growth
                        • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
                        • Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
                        • Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                    • Market Breakdown

                      • Almond, coconut, “other” non-dairy milk segments on the rise
                        • Almond milk
                          • Soy milk
                            • Coconut milk
                              • Other non-dairy milk
                                • Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
                              • “Other” non-dairy milk experiences strongest growth through 2020
                                • Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, by segment, by percentage change, at current prices, 2010-20
                              • All channels experience sales gains from 2013-15
                                • Figure 12: Total US retail sales of non-dairy milk, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
                              • Natural channel non-dairy milk sales grow
                                • Figure 13: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks Dec. 1, 2013 to Nov. 29, 2015
                              • Almond milk leading segment at natural channels
                                • Figure 14: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, by type, at current prices, 52-weeks ending Nov. 29, 2015
                            • Market Perspective

                              • Dairy milk category sees declines
                                • Figure 15: Total US sales and forecast of dairy and non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
                                • Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
                                • Figure 17: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                              • Vast majority of non-dairy drinkers consume dairy milk
                                • Figure 18: Dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, January 2016
                            • Market Factors

                              • Non-dairy milk’s healthful image challenged in the media
                                • Health concerns remain top-of-mind with consumers
                                  • Figure 19: Important to achieve good health – Any top three rank, May 2015
                                • Millennial population has positive growth
                                  • Figure 20: Population by generation, 2011-21
                                • Hispanic population growing
                                  • Figure 21: Population by Hispanic origin, 2011-21
                                • Overlap between Millennials, acculturated Hispanics, and parents
                                  • Millennials as parents
                                    • Figure 22: Households with own children, by age of householder, 2013
                                  • Hispanics as parents
                                    • Figure 23: Households with own children, by Hispanic origin of householder, 2013
                                  • Hispanics as Millennials
                                    • Figure 24: Generations, by Hispanic origin, 2016
                                • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                                  • Private label, noncategory leaders see strongest growth
                                    • Almond, coconut, “other” milks see success at MULO channels
                                      • Soy milk continues to lose at MULO channels
                                        • Non-dairy milks see flavor, function innovation
                                        • Manufacturer Sales of Non-dairy Milk

                                          • Private label, noncategory leaders see strongest growth
                                            • Figure 25: MULO sales of non-dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
                                          • Manufacturer sales of non-dairy milk
                                            • Figure 26: MULO sales of non-dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
                                        • What’s Working?

                                          • Almond milks’ popularity continues at MULO channels
                                            • Coconut milk sees MULO sales gains across leading companies, brands
                                              • “Other” non-dairy milks experience stellar growth
                                              • What’s Struggling?

                                                • Soy milk continues to lose at MULO channels
                                                • What’s Next?

                                                  • New non-dairy milks and blends offer flavor, health opportunities
                                                    • Room for more functionality
                                                      • Global innovation features new flavors, forms
                                                        • Non-dairy milk + fruit
                                                          • Seasonal, sophisticated, and unique flavors
                                                            • Cold-pressed
                                                              • Smoothie potential in the non-dairy milk space
                                                              • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                • Consumers drink many different types of non-dairy milks
                                                                  • Nearly all non-dairy milk drinkers also drink dairy milk
                                                                    • Majority of adults drink non-dairy milk
                                                                      • 54% of children drink non-dairy milk
                                                                        • Non-dairy milk drinkers equally likely to be frequent, moderate users
                                                                          • Majority use non-dairy milk as an additive, ingredient
                                                                            • Consumers want natural non-dairy milks
                                                                              • Majority purchase refrigerated, chilled non-dairy milk
                                                                                • Taste top reason to drink non-dairy milk, followed by health
                                                                                  • Extra protein, nutrition can encourage new, increased consumption
                                                                                    • Many consumers view dairy and non-dairy milk similarly
                                                                                    • Cross-Consumption of Non-dairy Milks

                                                                                      • Consumers drink multiple non-dairy milks types
                                                                                        • Figure 27: Non-dairy milk consumption – Adult consumption, by non-dairy milk consumption – Adult consumption of soy/almond/cashew/coconut milks, January 2016
                                                                                      • Non-dairy milk consumption on the rise at home, at foodservice
                                                                                        • Figure 28: Beverage Tracker – Non-dairy milk consumption, June 2014 to September 2015
                                                                                    • Cross-Consumption of Non-dairy and Dairy Milk

                                                                                      • Nearly all non-dairy milk drinkers also drink dairy milk
                                                                                        • Figure 29: Dairy milk consumption – Any adult consumption, by non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, January 2016
                                                                                        • Figure 30: Dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption of soy milk/almond milk/rice milk/oat milk/cashew milk/coconut milk, January 2016
                                                                                        • Figure 31: Dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption of flax seed milk/hemp milk/hazelnut milk/quinoa milk/sunflower milk/other nut milks, January 2016
                                                                                    • Core Consumers – Adult Consumption

                                                                                      • 58% of adults drink non-dairy milk
                                                                                        • Figure 32: Non-dairy milk consumption – Adult consumption, January 2016
                                                                                      • Older Millennials heaviest non-dairy milk drinkers
                                                                                          • Figure 33: Non-dairy milk consumption – Personal consumption, by Millennial generation, January 2016
                                                                                          • Figure 34: Any non-dairy milk consumption – Personal consumption, by gender and age, January 2016
                                                                                        • Parents more likely to drink non-dairy milk than non-parents
                                                                                            • Figure 35: Non-dairy milk consumption – Personal consumption, by parental status, January 2016
                                                                                          • Hispanics active non-dairy milk drinkers
                                                                                              • Figure 36: Non-dairy milk consumption – Personal consumption, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2016
                                                                                          • Core Consumers – Child(ren) Consumption

                                                                                            • 54% of children drink non-dairy milk
                                                                                                • Figure 37: Non-dairy milk consumption – Child(ren) consumption, January 2016
                                                                                            • Consumption Frequency

                                                                                              • Non-dairy milk drinkers equally likely to be frequent, moderate users
                                                                                                • Figure 38: Non-dairy milk consumption frequency, January 2016
                                                                                              • Older Millennials frequent non-dairy milk drinkers
                                                                                                • Figure 39: Non-dairy milk consumption frequency, by generation, January 2016
                                                                                                • Figure 40: Non-dairy milk consumption frequency, by parental status, January 2016
                                                                                              • Opportunity to increase Blacks’ non-dairy milk consumption
                                                                                                • Figure 41: Non-dairy milk consumption frequency, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2016
                                                                                            • Consumption Habits

                                                                                              • Majority use non-dairy milk as an additive, ingredient
                                                                                                • Figure 42: Non-dairy milk consumption habits – Addition or ingredient, January 2016
                                                                                                • Figure 43: Non-dairy milk consumption habits – Addition or ingredient, by generation, January 2016
                                                                                              • Highlighting functional attributes of non-dairy milk through occasion
                                                                                                  • Figure 44: Non-dairy milk consumption habits – As a drink or meal, January 2016
                                                                                                  • Figure 45: Non-dairy milk consumption habits – As a drink or meal, by generation, January 2016
                                                                                              • Preferred Attributes

                                                                                                • Consumers want natural non-dairy milks
                                                                                                  • Figure 46: Non-dairy milk preferred attributes – Any rank, January 2016
                                                                                                • Older Millennials look for natural, organic, flavored non-dairy milks
                                                                                                  • Figure 47: Non-dairy milk preferred attributes – Any rank, by generation, January 2016
                                                                                              • Attitudes and Behaviors toward Non-dairy Milk

                                                                                                • Majority purchase refrigerated, chilled non-dairy milk
                                                                                                    • Figure 48: Non-dairy milk attitudes and behaviors, January 2016
                                                                                                  • Millennials drink non-dairy milk outside the home, make at home
                                                                                                    • Figure 49: Non-dairy milk attitudes and behaviors, by generation, January 2016
                                                                                                • Reasons for Consuming

                                                                                                  • Taste top reason to drink non-dairy milk
                                                                                                    • Figure 50: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, January 2016
                                                                                                  • Younger Millennials least likely to drink non-dairy milk for health reasons
                                                                                                    • Figure 51: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, by generation, January 2016
                                                                                                  • Parents drink non-dairy milk for their health
                                                                                                    • Figure 52: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, by parental status, January 2016
                                                                                                  • Opportunities for greater nutritional, flavor awareness with Hispanics
                                                                                                    • Figure 53: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, by Hispanic origin, January 2016
                                                                                                • Non-dairy Milk Innovation

                                                                                                  • Extra protein, nutrition can encourage new, increased consumption
                                                                                                    • Figure 54: Non-dairy milk innovation, January 2016
                                                                                                  • Older Millennials seek non-dairy milk innovation
                                                                                                    • Figure 55: Non-dairy milk innovation, by generation, January 2016
                                                                                                • Milk Perceptions

                                                                                                  • Consumers view dairy and non-dairy milk similarly
                                                                                                    • Figure 56: Milk perceptions, January 2016
                                                                                                  • Consumers in their own words
                                                                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                                                    • Data sources
                                                                                                      • Sales data
                                                                                                        • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                                          • Consumer survey data
                                                                                                            • Consumer qualitative research
                                                                                                              • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                                                • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                  • Terms
                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Market

                                                                                                                      • Figure 57: Total US sales and forecast of almond milk, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                                                                      • Figure 58: Total US sales and forecast of almond milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                                                                                      • Figure 59: Total US sales and forecast of coconut milk, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                                                                      • Figure 60: Total US sales and forecast of coconut milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                                                                                      • Figure 61: Total US sales and forecast of soy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                                                                      • Figure 62: Total US sales and forecast of soy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                                                                                      • Figure 63: Total US sales and forecast of other non-dairy milks, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                                                                      • Figure 64: Total US sales and forecast of other non-dairy milks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                                                                                      • Figure 65: US supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-15
                                                                                                                      • Figure 66: US sales of non-dairy milk through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15
                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                                                                      • Figure 67: MULO sales of almond milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                                                                                      • Figure 68: MULO sales of coconut milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                                                                                      • Figure 69: MULO sales of soy milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                                                                                      • Figure 70: MULO sales of other non-dairy milks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015

                                                                                                                  Companies Covered

                                                                                                                  • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                                                                                  Non-dairy Milk - US - April 2016

                                                                                                                  US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)