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Nuts and Dried Fruit - US - August 2012

The $7.2 billion dollar nuts and dried fruit category fared well during the recession and beyond, posting a gain of 36.1% in dollar sales from 2007-12. The category has likely benefited from the health perceptions associated with it, as well as constant innovation and a strong private label presence. While constant growth is expected from 2012-17, much depends on potential overall food price increases due to the 2012 drought, coupled with effective innovation, particularly around emphasizing functional benefits.

In order to provide a better understanding and recommendations for future success, this report provides an in-depth look at the nuts and dried fruit market, including:

  • Current market performance, including leading brands and the impact of a strong private label market in an otherwise fragmented category
  • Consumption patterns and health perceptions of the three segments that make up the category: nuts, dried fruit, and trail mix
  • Consumers’ health perceptions associated with the category, as well possible confusions regarding all the functional benefits that nuts provide
  • Brand and private label purchase patterns, as well as taste perceptions regarding private label offerings
  • Insight into new product launches and how product claims compare to consumers’ interests and desires
  • TV ads, as well as online and digital promotional efforts
  • Interest in new products, specifically in flavors and “low-in” attributes
  • Usage occasion popularity and frequency of consumption
  • Consumption among multicultural groups and their importance to the category

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer survey data
              • Advertising creative
                • Abbreviations and terms
                  • Terms
                  • Executive Summary

                      • The market and forecast
                        • The nuts and dried fruit category benefits from consumer perceptions about health
                          • Figure 1: Total U.S. sales and fan chart forecast of nuts and dried fruit, at current prices, 2007-17
                        • Market shaped by the nuts segment; trail mix is small but growing fastest
                          • Figure 2: Rate of change in current dollar sales, nuts and dried fruit, by segment, 2012-17
                        • Market factors
                          • The aging American population creates challenges for nuts and dried fruit
                            • Figure 3: Percentage change in rate of U.S. population, by age groups, 2006-16
                          • Declines in households with children also could slow sales
                            • Figure 4: Households with and without presence of children, by percentage of total, 2001-11
                          • Multicultural groups are forecast to grow at a faster rate than whites, total population
                            • Figure 5: Population percent change, by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
                          • Companies, brands, and innovations
                            • Private label has a strong presence; market very fragmented
                              • Figure 6: Selected Manufacturer FDMx share of nuts and dried fruit, 2011*.
                            • Innovation has been strong; significant growth in new product introductions 2007-11
                              • Figure 7: Nuts segment new product introductions, 2007-12*
                            • The consumer
                              • Nuts is an almost saturated category; dried fruit and trail mix have room to grow
                                • Figure 8: Household consumption of snacks, by types eaten, April 2012
                              • Opportunity remains to better leverage all types of nuts
                                • Figure 9: Consumption of nuts by top 6 types eaten, by presence of children, April 2012
                              • Fat content is still a concern, particularly for women
                                • Figure 10: Attitudes toward health benefits/restrictions of nuts, by gender, April 2012
                              • Brand loyalty is weak and price is important; private label has strong offerings
                                • Figure 11: Attitudes toward brand/buying behavior of nuts, by gender, April 2012
                              • Consumers aged 18-34 over index on almost all types of dried fruit consumption
                                • Figure 12: Consumption of dried fruit by top 5 types eaten, by age, April 2012
                              • Despite overall healthy perception, more women limit dried fruit because of sugar
                                • Figure 13: Attitudes toward health benefits/restrictions of dried fruit, by gender, April 2012
                              • What we think
                              • Issues in the Market

                                  • How can nuts manufacturers and retailers increase the usage frequency of nuts?
                                    • How can nut and dried fruit companies expand usage occasions beyond snacking?
                                    • Insights and Opportunities

                                      • Leverage product functionality specific to different consumer groups
                                        • Healthy perception of nuts still leaves room for manufacturers to further educate consumers
                                          • Companies could put more emphasis on benefits for specific groups
                                            • Women
                                              • Elderly
                                                • Bottom line
                                                  • Opportunity to expand usage occasions beyond snacking
                                                  • Trend Applications

                                                      • Trend: Who are the Joneses?
                                                        • Consider this
                                                          • Bottom line
                                                            • Trend: Girly Men
                                                              • Consider this
                                                                • Bottom line
                                                                  • 2015 Trend: East Meets West
                                                                    • Consider this
                                                                      • Bottom line
                                                                      • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                        • Key points
                                                                          • Nuts and dried fruit continue to post positive results
                                                                            • Future growth seen, depending on innovation, the economy, and health benefits
                                                                              • Sales and forecast of nuts and dried fruit
                                                                                • Figure 14: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of market, at current prices, 2007-17
                                                                                • Figure 15: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
                                                                              • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                  • Figure 16: Total U.S. sales and fan chart forecast of nuts and dried fruit, at current prices, 2007-17
                                                                                • Walmart sales
                                                                                • Market Drivers

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Recent drought forecast to cause food price increases
                                                                                      • Figure 17: Real personal disposable income, January 2007-April 2012
                                                                                    • Nuts can play a role to promote a healthy lifestyle
                                                                                      • Figure 18: Age-adjusted prevalence of being overweight, obese, or extremely obese, among adults aged 20 or older, 1988-2008
                                                                                      • Figure 19: Prevalence of obesity among children/teens aged 2-19, 1976-2008
                                                                                    • Changes in demographics could positively influence the category
                                                                                      • The older population is increasing in number due to more Baby Boomers entering this age group
                                                                                        • Figure 20: Population, by age, 2006-16
                                                                                      • Households with children decreasing; number of children per household increasing
                                                                                        • Figure 21: Households, by presence of children younger than 18, 2001-11
                                                                                      • Household size is shrinking; larger households could have multiple generations
                                                                                        • Figure 22: Households, by number of people in household, 2001-11
                                                                                        • Figure 23: Household consumption of nuts, by types of nuts, by household size, April 2012
                                                                                      • Multicultural groups, in particular Asians and Hispanics, important for future growth
                                                                                        • Figure 24: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
                                                                                        • Figure 25: Average number of children in household, by race/Hispanic origin of householder, 2011
                                                                                    • Competitive Context

                                                                                      • Private label continues to pose a threat to branded competition
                                                                                        • Figure 26: FDMX private label sales of nuts and dried fruit, 2006-11
                                                                                        • Figure 27: Attitudes toward nuts brand/buying behavior, by gender, April 2012
                                                                                        • Figure 28: Attitudes toward brand/buying behavior of nuts, by age, April 2012
                                                                                        • Figure 29: Private label sales of nuts and dried fruit, 2010* and 2011*
                                                                                      • Competition from other “healthy” snacks draws near
                                                                                        • Figure 30: Household Consumption of snacks by types eaten, by gender, April 2012
                                                                                        • Figure 31: Attitudes toward nuts when compared to other snacks, by gender, April 2012
                                                                                        • Figure 32: Attitudes toward nuts when compared to other snacks, by age, April 2012
                                                                                    • Segment Performance

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • Nuts dominates category, shaping its performance
                                                                                          • Sales of nuts and dried fruit, by segment
                                                                                            • Figure 33: Total U.S. sales of nuts and dried fruit category, segmented by type, 2011 and 2012
                                                                                        • Segment Performance—Nuts

                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                            • Nuts are perceived as healthy; but many are concerned with fat and caloric content
                                                                                              • Sales and forecast of nuts
                                                                                                • Figure 34: Total sales and forecast for nuts, at current prices, 2007-17
                                                                                            • Segment Performance—Dried Fruit

                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                • Insight on this section
                                                                                                  • Sales and forecast of dried fruit
                                                                                                    • Figure 35: Total U.S. sales and forecast of dried fruit, at current prices, 2007-17
                                                                                                • Segment Performance—Trail Mix

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Trail mix experiences significant growth and forecast to continue
                                                                                                      • Sales and forecast of trail mix
                                                                                                        • Figure 36: Total U.S. sales and forecast of trail mix, at current prices, 2007-17
                                                                                                    • Retail Channels

                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                        • A race of two horses, with a third lagging behind but gaining
                                                                                                          • Sales of nuts and dried fruit, by channel
                                                                                                            • Figure 37: Total U.S. sales of nuts and dried fruit category, by channel, 2011 and 2012
                                                                                                        • Retail Channels—Supercenters, Warehouse Clubs, Dollar Stores, and Other Channel

                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                            • Competitive pricing drives sales
                                                                                                              • Supercenters, warehouse clubs, dollar stores and other channels sales of nuts and dried fruit
                                                                                                                • Figure 38: Total U.S. supercenters, warehouse clubs, dollar stores and other channels sales of nuts and dried fruit, at current prices, 2007-12
                                                                                                            • Retail Channels—Supermarkets

                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                • Supermarkets forecast to grow pending private label innovation
                                                                                                                  • To meet consumers’ desire for healthy eating, some supermarkets use nutritional systems
                                                                                                                    • Supermarkets sales of nuts and dried fruit
                                                                                                                      • Figure 39: Total U.S. supermarkets sales of nuts and dried fruit, at current prices, 2007-12
                                                                                                                  • Retail Channels—Drug Stores

                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                      • Drug stores focus more on food offerings, particularly on private label, and on price
                                                                                                                        • Drug stores sales of nuts and dried fruit
                                                                                                                          • Figure 40: Drugstores sales of nuts and dried fruit, at current prices, 2007-12
                                                                                                                      • Retail Channels—Natural Supermarkets

                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                          • Insights
                                                                                                                            • Sales of nuts and dried fruit in the natural channel
                                                                                                                              • Figure 41: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and dried fruit, at current prices, 2009-11*
                                                                                                                              • Figure 42: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and dried fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-11*
                                                                                                                            • Natural channel sales of nuts, seeds and dried fruit by segment
                                                                                                                              • Figure 43: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and dried fruit, by segment, 2009 and 2011*
                                                                                                                            • Natural channel sales of nuts, seeds and dried fruit, by organic
                                                                                                                              • Figure 44: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and dried fruit, by organic, 2009 and 2011*
                                                                                                                          • Leading Companies

                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                              • Kraft Foods and Diamond Foods lead; private label owns close to a third of market
                                                                                                                                • Manufacturer sales of nuts and dried fruit
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 45: FDMx sales of nuts and dried fruit, 2010* and 2011*
                                                                                                                              • Brand Share—Nuts

                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                  • Paramount Farms sees highest dollar sales, market share growth
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 46: Household usage of brands of nuts, by age, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Manufacturers sales of nuts
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 47: FDMx brand sales of nuts in the U.S., 2010* and 2011*
                                                                                                                                  • Brand Share—Dried Fruit

                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                      • Private label stands alone in growth with dollar sales, market share growth
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 48: Attitudes toward brand/buying behavior of dried fruit, by gender, April 2012
                                                                                                                                      • Manufacturer sales of dried fruit
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 49: FDMx sales of dried fruit in the U.S., 2010* and 2011*
                                                                                                                                    • Brand Share—Trail Mix

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                        • Diamond Foods sees the highest dollar sales increase, market share growth
                                                                                                                                          • Manufacturer sales of trail mix
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 50: FDMx sales of trail mix, 2010* and 2011*
                                                                                                                                        • Innovations and Innovators

                                                                                                                                          • New product rollouts increase dramatically 2007-11; focus shifted
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 51: New product introductions for nuts, by claims, 2007-12*
                                                                                                                                          • Nuts, seeds new products diverse, meet multiple needs
                                                                                                                                            • Dried fruit emphasizes simplicity, functional attributes, premium
                                                                                                                                              • Trail mix innovation focused on wholesomeness of ingredients
                                                                                                                                              • Marketing Strategies

                                                                                                                                                • Overview of the brand landscape
                                                                                                                                                  • Planters aggressively supports NUT-rition Men’s Health Mix
                                                                                                                                                    • TV ad focused on the “manliest mix” for the manliest men
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 52: Planters, “Men’s Nuts”, TV ad, 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Print, social media complement TV advertising in supporting new line
                                                                                                                                                      • Kraft promotes “green” living, debuts biodiesel Planters Nutmobile
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 53: Brand analysis of Planters, 2012
                                                                                                                                                      • Paramount Farms continues its successful “Get Crackin’” campaign
                                                                                                                                                        • TV campaign reaches young adults with “out-of-the-box” approach
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 54: Paramount Farms, “Muppet gone green,” TV ad, 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 55: Brand analysis of Paramount Farms, 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 56: Wonderful Pistachios, “The Winklevoss Twins,” TV ad, 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 57: Brand analysis of Wonderful Pistachios, 2012
                                                                                                                                                        • Angry Bird “Get Crackin’” as well
                                                                                                                                                          • Blue Diamond focuses on TV ads that emphasize health and variety
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 58: Blue Diamond, “Roast”, TV ad, 2012
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 59: Brand analysis of Blue Diamond Growers, 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Sun-Maid Growers goes “Kung Fu”
                                                                                                                                                            • Sunsweet Growers touts the “superfruit” benefits of its plums
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 60: Sunsweet “Amazing,” TV ad, 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 61: Brand analysis of Sunsweet, 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Snack Food Consumption

                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                              • Majority of snacks perceived as healthy; nuts rise to the top
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 62: Health perception for consumed snacks, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Nuts in most households: opportunities exist by type
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 63: Household Consumption of snacks by types eaten, by age, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • More households with children use snacks
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 64: Household consumption of snacks by types eaten, by presence of children, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Types of Nuts Eaten, Frequency by Occasion

                                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                    • Peanuts remain most popular nuts; almonds follow closely
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 65: Household consumption of nuts, by types eaten, by age, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                    • Households with kids over index on almost all types of nuts
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 66: Household consumption of nuts by types eaten, by presence of children, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                    • Nuts continue to be eaten as a snack by most consumers
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 67: Frequency of consumption of nuts, by eating occasion, by presence of children, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 68: Frequency of personal consumption of nuts by eating occasion, by gender, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                    • The versatility of nuts could be leveraged more to expand usage occasions
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 69: Frequency of personal consumption by eating occasion, by age, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                  • Attitudes toward Nuts

                                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                      • Fat content in nuts still a concern, especially for women
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 70: Attitudes toward health benefits/restrictions of nuts, by gender, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Functional benefits important
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 71: Interest in new nuts products, by gender, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • More consumers aged 25-34 limit consumption due to fat
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 72: Attitudes on health benefits/restrictions of nuts, interest in new products, by age, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Types of Dried Fruit and Trail Mix Eaten, Frequency

                                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                              • Raisins still in the lead; cranberries follow closely
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 73: Household consumption of dried fruit by types eaten, by age, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 74: Household Consumption of dried fruit by types eaten, by presence of children, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 75: Frequency of personal consumption of dried fruit by eating occasion, by age, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                              • Fewer consumers perceive trail mix as healthy
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 76: Household Consumption of snacks by types eaten, by age, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                              • 18-34 over index on most usage occasions of trail mix
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 77: Frequency of personal consumption of trail mix, by age, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                            • Attitudes toward Dried Fruit

                                                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                • Dried fruit seen healthy by most; more women limit it due to sugar
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 78: Attitudes toward health benefits/restrictions of dried fruit, by gender, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                • Opportunities exist to better leverage freeze-dried fruit
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 79: Attitudes toward dried fruit, by age, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                              • Impact of Race/Hispanic Origin

                                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Asians over index on consumption, for most occasions
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 80: Frequency of personal consumption, by eating occasion, by race, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Sodium a concern for all multicultural groups, fat particularly for Asians
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 81: Attitudes toward nuts, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • More blacks, Hispanics tend to switch between private label, brands
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 82: Attitudes toward nuts, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Asian and Hispanics over index on consumption of most types of dried fruit
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 83: Household consumption of dried fruit by types eaten, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 84: Personal consumption of dried fruit by eating occasion by race/Hispanic origin, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                • Key Household Purchase Measures—SymphonyIRI Builders Panel Analysis

                                                                                                                                                                                    • Overview of snack nuts/seeds/corn nuts
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Snack nuts
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 85: Brand map, selected brands of snack nuts, by household penetration, 2011*
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 86: Key purchase measures for the top brands of snack nuts, by household penetration, 2011*
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Baking nuts
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Consumer insights on key purchase measures—baking nuts
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 87: Brand map, selected brands of baking nuts, by household penetration, 2011*
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 88: Key purchase measures for the top brands of baking nuts, by household penetration, 2011*
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Overview of dried fruit
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Raisins
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Consumer insights on key purchase measures—raisins
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 89: Brand map, selected brands of raisins, by household penetration, 2011*
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 90: Key purchase measures for the top brands of raisins, by household penetration, 2011*
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix—Other Useful Consumer Tables

                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 91: Attitudes toward dried fruit, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 92: Frequency of eating trail mix, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix—SymphonyIRI Builders Panel Data Definitions

                                                                                                                                                                                                          • SymphonyIRI Consumer Network Metrics
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix—Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Nuts and Dried Fruit - US - August 2012

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