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Nuts, Seeds and Trail Mix - US - June 2016

"The nuts, seeds, and trail mix category continues its steady growth trajectory as Americans adopt frequent snacking occasions, and seek convenient foods they can feel good about eating. Looking ahead, the category is expected to grow, despite facing competition from other snacking categories, including other salty snacks, and BFY (better-for-you) products like yogurt or nutritional bars. Shifting US demographics, including growth in Millennials and Hispanics, are also likely to positively impact future category growth."
- Amanda Topper, Senior Food Analyst

This report discusses the following key topics:

  • Category grows 28% from 2011-16
  • 90% of US households purchase nuts, seeds or trail mix
  • Convenience, nutrition important purchase drivers

This report covers the following segments:

  • Nuts, including snack nuts, baking nuts, and toasted corn nuts
  • Seeds, including sunflower and pumpkin seeds
  • Trail mixes

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Category grows 28% from 2011-16
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of nuts, seeds and trail mix, at current prices, 2011-21
          • 90% of US households purchase nuts, seeds or trail mix
            • Figure 2: Nuts, seeds and trail mix purchase, April 2016
          • Convenience, nutrition important purchase drivers
            • Figure 3: Innovation areas, April 2016
          • The opportunities
            • Promote occasions beyond snacking
              • Figure 4: Product use, April 2016
            • Cater to the on-the-go consumer
              • Figure 5: Behaviors, April 2016
            • Emphasize nutrition while alleviating concerns about fat and sodium
              • Figure 6: Attitudes, any agree, April 2016
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need To Know

              • Sales reach $8.6 billion in 2016
                • Supermarkets are not the leading retailer
                  • Competition from private label and other snacks
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Category sales reach $8.6 billion in 2016
                      • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of nuts, seeds and trail mix, at current prices, 2011-21
                      • Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of nuts, seeds and trail mix, at current prices, 2011-21
                      • Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of nuts, seeds and trail mix, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • Nuts segment represents three quarters of category sales
                      • Figure 10: Total US retail sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, by segment share, 2016
                      • Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
                    • Other retail channels dominate
                      • Figure 12: Total US retail sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by channel, at current prices, 2011-16
                    • Natural channel sales flat
                      • Figure 13: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014-Mar. 20, 2016
                      • Figure 14: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014-Mar. 20, 2016
                  • Market Perspective

                    • Private label a viable threat
                      • Other snacks provide similar benefits
                        • Figure 15: Attitudes and opinions about food – Any agree, 2010-15
                    • Market Factors

                      • Snacking is the new norm
                        • Figure 16: Daily snacking frequency, January 2015
                      • Obesity on the rise
                        • Figure 17: Percent of people aged 20 or older who are healthy weight, overweight, or obese, 2003-06 to 2011-14
                      • US demographics shifting
                        • Figure 18: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
                        • Figure 19: Population by generation share, 2016
                        • Figure 20: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21
                    • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                      • Sales fragmented, private label represents one third of sales
                        • Bold, indulgent flavors keep consumers interested in the category
                          • Segment blurring brings meat snacks and trail mix together
                            • Opportunity to position products for specific occasions, functions
                            • Manufacturer Sales of Nuts, Seeds and Trail Mix

                              • Private label represents more than one third of category sales
                                • Manufacturer sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix
                                  • Figure 21: MULO sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                              • What’s Working?

                                • Bold flavors
                                  • Figure 22: MULO sales of Planters nuts
                                  • Figure 23: MULO sales of Blue Diamond Growers nuts
                                  • Figure 24: MULO sales of Thanasi Foods LLC seeds
                                • Simple preparations
                                  • Figure 25: MULO sales of Planters seeds
                                  • Figure 26: MULO sales of Fisher nuts
                                • Trail mix combining flavors and textures
                                  • Figure 27: MULO sales of Kar’s trail mix
                                  • Figure 28: MULO sales of Second Nature trail mix
                                • Private label products
                                  • Figure 29: Branded and private label nuts, seeds and trail mix product launches, 2011-15
                                  • Figure 30: MULO sales of private label nuts, seeds and trail mix
                              • What’s Struggling?

                                • Leading trail mix brand takes a hit
                                  • Figure 31: MULO sales of Planters trail mix
                                  • Figure 32: MULO sales of TreeHouse Foods Inc. trail mix
                                  • Figure 33: MULO sales of Diamond Foods Inc.* trail mix
                                • Leading seeds brands not sprouting
                                  • Figure 34: MULO sales of ConAgra Foods Inc. seeds
                                  • Figure 35: MULO sales of TreeHouse Foods Inc. seeds
                              • What’s Next?

                                • Meat snack trail mix
                                  • International influences
                                    • Smart indulgences
                                      • Specific occasions and benefits
                                      • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                        • 90% of households buy nuts, seeds, or trail mix
                                          • Snacking occasions driving consumption
                                            • Consumers value bold flavors, yet prefer to stick with tradition
                                              • Nearly half eat on the go
                                                • Health and nutrition drive purchases
                                                • Nuts, Seeds, and Trail Mix Purchase

                                                  • Nearly all households buy nuts, seeds, or trail mix
                                                    • Figure 36: Nuts, seeds and trail mix purchase, April 2016
                                                  • Purchase skews toward higher-income households
                                                    • Figure 37: Nuts, seeds and trail mix purchase, any purchase, by household income, April 2016
                                                  • Millennials significantly more likely to make any purchase
                                                    • Figure 38: Nuts, seeds and trail mix purchase, any purchase, by Millennials and Non-Millennials, April 2016
                                                  • Hispanics more likely to purchase all types of nuts, seeds and trail mix
                                                    • Figure 39: Nuts, seeds and trail mix purchase, any purchase, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
                                                • Product Use

                                                  • Snack occasions most common
                                                    • Figure 40: Product use, April 2016
                                                  • Trail mix purchasers most likely to use it as a snack
                                                    • Figure 41: Product use, by nuts, seeds and trail mix purchase, April 2016
                                                  • Women more likely to snack, use these products as an ingredient
                                                    • Figure 42: Product use, by gender, April 2016
                                                  • Hispanics least likely to eat nuts, seeds, or trail mix as a snack
                                                    • Figure 43: Product use, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2016
                                                • Flavor Innovation

                                                  • Consumers prefer traditional flavors
                                                    • Figure 44: Flavor innovation, April 2016
                                                  • Familiar flavors can reach a majority audience
                                                    • Figure 45: TURF analysis – Flavor innovation, April 2016
                                                • Innovation Areas

                                                  • Resealable packaging, nutrition and simple ingredients most important
                                                    • Figure 46: Innovation areas, April 2016
                                                    • Figure 47: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014 and Mar. 20, 2016
                                                    • Figure 48: Natural supermarket sales of organic nuts, seeds and trail mix, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014 and Mar. 20, 2016
                                                  • Parents want added nutrition, non-parents care about simplicity
                                                    • Figure 49: Innovation areas, by parental status, April 2016
                                                  • Millennials want products to fuel them on-the-go
                                                    • Figure 50: Innovation areas, by Millennials and Non-Millennials, April 2016
                                                  • High protein most important to Hispanic consumers
                                                    • Figure 51: Innovation areas, by Millennials and Non-Millennials, April 2016
                                                • Behaviors

                                                  • Nearly half of consumers eat on the go
                                                    • Figure 52: Behaviors, April 2016
                                                  • Millennials are super purchasers
                                                    • Figure 53: Behaviors, by generation, April 2016
                                                  • Parents eating nuts, seeds, and trail mix across locations
                                                    • Figure 54: Behaviors, by parental status, April 2016
                                                  • Hispanics are buying more products and snacking more in general
                                                    • Figure 55: Behaviors, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
                                                • Attitudes toward Nuts, Seeds and Trail Mix

                                                  • Health and nutrition are key purchase drivers
                                                    • Figure 56: Attitudes, any agree, April 2016
                                                  • Millennials value convenience, satiety and bold flavors
                                                    • Figure 57: Attitudes, any agree, by generation, April 2016
                                                  • Concerns about fat and sodium content amplified among parents
                                                    • Figure 58: Attitudes, any agree, by parental status, April 2016
                                                  • Hispanics most favorable toward health and nutrition benefits
                                                    • Figure 59: Attitudes, any agree, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2016
                                                • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                  • Data sources
                                                    • Sales data
                                                      • Fan chart forecast
                                                        • Consumer survey data
                                                          • Abbreviations and terms
                                                            • Abbreviations
                                                            • Appendix – Market

                                                              • Market breakdown
                                                                • Figure 60: Total US retail sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, by segment, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
                                                                • Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of nuts, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                • Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of seeds, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                                • Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of trail mix, at current prices, 2011-21
                                                              • Retail channels
                                                                • Figure 64: Total US retail sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix , by channel, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
                                                                • Figure 65: US supermarket sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, at current prices, 2011-16
                                                                • Figure 66: US convenience store sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, at current prices, 2011-16
                                                                • Figure 67: US convenience store sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix through other retail channels, at current prices, 2011-16
                                                              • Natural channels
                                                                • Figure 68: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by GMO ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014 and Mar. 20, 2016
                                                                • Figure 69: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix with non-GMO claim, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014 and Mar. 20, 2016
                                                                • Figure 70: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by "natural" labeling or perception, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014 and Mar. 20, 2016
                                                                • Figure 71: Natural supermarket sales of "natural" labeled/perceived nuts, seeds and trail mix, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks Mar. 23, 2014 and Mar. 20, 2016
                                                                • Figure 72: Natural supermarket sales of seeds, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014 and Mar. 20, 2016
                                                                • Figure 73: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014 and Mar. 20, 2016
                                                            • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                • Figure 74: MULO sales of nuts, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                                • Figure 75: MULO sales of seeds, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                                • Figure 76: MULO sales of trail mix, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                            • Appendix – Consumer

                                                                • Figure 77: Leisure activities/hobbies
                                                            • Appendix – TURF Analysis

                                                              • Methodology
                                                                • Figure 78: Table – TURF analysis – Flavor innovation, April 2016

                                                            Companies Covered

                                                            • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                            Nuts, Seeds and Trail Mix - US - June 2016

                                                            US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)