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Oh, Baby! - US - February 2009

The $3.4 billion FDMx (excluding Wal-Mart) market for disposable baby products includes diapers, training pants, wipes and moist towelettes, as well as cleansing and care products such as shampoo, body wash, and baby oil. Oh, Baby! examines this mature market using primary and secondary research to identify points of opportunity as well as challenges ahead.

Insights include:

  • How birth rates have recently impacted the market and how the economy will alter purchase habits
  • What eco-friendly products are being introduced in the diapers, training pants and wipes segments and what challenges exist to growing environmentally friendly products
  • What phthalates are and how concerns will create innovation opportunities
  • Why private label sales are growing in some segments but declining in others
  • How does specific product usage vary by race/ethnicity and age of child?
  • How deep is the demand for environmentally friendly products and are respondents willing to pay more for natural ingredients?
  • Who is really using baby oil and baby powder and how does this affect ways that these products should be positioned?

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer survey data
              • Abbreviations and terms
                • Abbreviations
                  • Terms
                  • Executive Summary

                    • Introduction
                      • Diapers segment varies while wipes sales grow steadily
                        • Convenience outweighs altruism
                          • Confusion and fun both create opportunity for new positioning of products
                            • Migration to mass merchandisers and drug stores continues to eat at food store sales
                              • Birth rate key driver for market
                                • Economy changing how people shop
                                  • Major suppliers consolidate their market position
                                    • Marketing and promotion is increasingly online
                                      • Usage of disposable baby products
                                        • Preferred place of purchase and attitudes regarding products
                                          • Popularity of brands
                                          • Insights and Opportunities

                                            • Phthalate-free and building trust
                                              • Innovative packaging and fun names bring playfulness into the category
                                                • Why so few Hispanic products?
                                                • Inspire Insights

                                                    • Alpha moms
                                                      • What we’ve seen
                                                        • Economy sharpens budgeting skills
                                                          • Necessity vs. luxury
                                                          • Market Size and Forecast

                                                            • Key points
                                                              • Challenges abound
                                                                • Figure 1: Total U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of disposable baby products at current prices, 2003-13
                                                                • Figure 2: Total U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of disposable baby products at inflation-adjusted prices, 2003-13
                                                              • Wal-Mart sales
                                                              • Competitive Context

                                                                • Fewer eco-friendly options of disposable diapers and wipes
                                                                  • Level of concentration creates less price competition
                                                                    • Confusion increases on conflicting research
                                                                      • Desire for natural products grows introductions at all price levels
                                                                      • Segment Performance

                                                                        • Key points
                                                                          • Maturity of diapers segment
                                                                            • Figure 3: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of disposable baby products at current prices, by segment, 2003-13
                                                                            • Figure 4: U.S. FDMx sales of disposable baby products, by segment, 2006 and 2008
                                                                        • Segment Performance—Disposable Diapers and Training Pants

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • Several price increases influence dollar sales
                                                                              • Figure 5: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of disposable diapers and training pants, 2003-13
                                                                          • Segment Performance—Baby Wipes and Moist Towelettes

                                                                            • Key points
                                                                              • Wipes grow while toddler products may have peaked
                                                                                • Reusable wipes system launched, but faces challenges
                                                                                  • Figure 6: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of baby wipes and moist towelettes, 2003-13
                                                                              • Segment Performance—Cleansing and Care

                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                  • Cleansing and care vulnerable in economic downturn
                                                                                    • Consumers choosing baby lotion instead of oil
                                                                                      • Figure 7: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of cleansing and care, 2003-13
                                                                                  • Retail Channels

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • Value in larger packs
                                                                                        • Direct to consumer retailing by P&G
                                                                                          • Figure 8: U.S. FDMx sales of disposable baby products, by retail channel, 2006 and 2008
                                                                                      • Retail Channels—Food Stores

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • Steady declines as consumers migrate to mass
                                                                                            • Premium private label baby care lines continue to debut
                                                                                              • Figure 9: U.S. food store sales of disposable baby products at other channels, 2003-08
                                                                                          • Retail Channels—Drug Stores and Mass Merchandisers

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • Both drug stores and mass merchandisers grow sales
                                                                                                • Adding value for purchasing multiple products together
                                                                                                  • Figure 10: U.S. drug store and mass merchandisers sales of disposable baby products at supermarkets, 2003-08
                                                                                              • Market Drivers

                                                                                                • Fertility rate is central to the market
                                                                                                  • Figure 11: U.S. live births and fertility rates, 1996-2006
                                                                                                • Number of children grows
                                                                                                  • Figure 12: Population under age 4, by single year of age, 2003-13
                                                                                                • Hispanic birth rate rises fastest
                                                                                                  • Figure 13: Percent distribution of births, by race & Hispanic origin of mother, 1996-2006
                                                                                                • Economy has effects on decision-making
                                                                                                  • Delaying starting or expanding family
                                                                                                    • Unemployment
                                                                                                      • Figure 14: Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, 16 years and older, by month, 2000-08
                                                                                                    • More teen moms a mixed blessing
                                                                                                      • Figure 15: U.S. ratio of live births for multiple and twin births, by age of mother, 2006
                                                                                                      • Figure 16: Rate of twin, triplet, and higher-order multiple births, by year, 2006, 2000, 1995, 1990, 1985, 1980
                                                                                                  • Leading Companies

                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                      • The strong get stronger
                                                                                                        • Brands change hands
                                                                                                          • Private label diapers consolidation
                                                                                                            • Figure 17: FDMx sales of leading disposable baby products companies, 2007 and 2008
                                                                                                        • Brand Share—Disposable Diapers and Training Pants

                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                            • Disposable diapers
                                                                                                              • Figure 18: FDMx brand sales of disposable diapers in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
                                                                                                            • Disposable training pants
                                                                                                              • Figure 19: FDMx brand sales of disposable training pants in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
                                                                                                          • Brand Share—Baby Wipes and Moist Towelettes

                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                              • Sales of toddler wipes have likely peaked
                                                                                                                • Private label and small suppliers grow
                                                                                                                  • Figure 20: FDMx brand sales of baby wipes and moist towelettes in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
                                                                                                              • Brand Share—Cleansing and Care

                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                  • PL mirrors market, leading Johnson & Johnson’s products
                                                                                                                    • Figure 21: FDMx brand sales of cleansing and care in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
                                                                                                                • Brand Qualities

                                                                                                                  • Discretion is the theme for GoodNites
                                                                                                                  • Innovation and Innovators

                                                                                                                    • Convenient disposable diapers heading toward lower eco-impact
                                                                                                                      • Recyclable/recycled packaging instead of product
                                                                                                                        • Phthalate-free products
                                                                                                                          • Natural products appear in mass and luxury
                                                                                                                            • Expanding nighttime baby products to toddlers
                                                                                                                              • Diaper rash balms
                                                                                                                              • Advertising and Promotion

                                                                                                                                • Overview
                                                                                                                                  • Individual brand campaigns
                                                                                                                                    • Pampers
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 22: Pampers Baby Dry, “Father tries to get baby to say dada” (080102573), 2008
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 23: Pampers cruisers with go baby grips, “How to sit in a chair” (080705036), 2008
                                                                                                                                    • Huggies
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 24: Huggies, Dad Stops Baby’s “Geyser” (080502844), 2008
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 25: Huggies baby wipes, “Sad rubber ducky follows child through home” (080201488), 2008
                                                                                                                                    • Luvs
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 26: Luvs bearhug stretch, “Baby wrestles teddy bear” (080700959), 2008
                                                                                                                                    • J&J debuts “webisodes” targeting Hispanics
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 27: Johnson’s Baby Lotion, “More giggles, gazes, smiles, and reaching out” (080419439), 2008
                                                                                                                                  • Web Marketing

                                                                                                                                    • Introduction
                                                                                                                                      • “Mommy Bloggers”
                                                                                                                                        • Sponsored links on search engines
                                                                                                                                          • Pampers
                                                                                                                                            • Huggies
                                                                                                                                              • Luvs
                                                                                                                                                • Johnson’s
                                                                                                                                                • Usage

                                                                                                                                                  • Usage of disposable baby products
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 28: Use of disposable baby products in households with children aged 0-3, by age of child, April 07-June 2008
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 29: Usage of baby oil in households with children, by lifestage, April 07-June 08
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 30: Usage of body and baby powder in households with children, by lifestage, April 07-June 08
                                                                                                                                                • Attitudes and Motivations

                                                                                                                                                  • Place of purchase
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 31: Usual place of purchase for disposable baby products, December 2008
                                                                                                                                                    • Attitudes and purchase preferences
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 32: Attitudes toward disposable baby products, agree summary, December 2008
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 33: Attitudes toward disposable baby products, agree summary, by number of children in household, December 2008
                                                                                                                                                    • Race and Hispanic Origin

                                                                                                                                                        • Usage of disposable baby products
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 34: Use of disposable baby products in households with children aged 0-3, by race/Hispanic origin, April 07-June 08
                                                                                                                                                        • Popularity of brands
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 35: Brand usage for pre-moistened wipes/cloths, by race/Hispanic origin, April 07-June 08
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 36: Brand usage for disposable diapers/training pants, by race/Hispanic origin, April 07-June 08
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 37: Brand usage for baby oil and baby lotion, by race/Hispanic origin, April 07-June 08
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 38: Brand usage for baby wash and bath products, by race/Hispanic origin, April 07-June 08
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 39: Brand usage for baby/children’s shampoo, by race/Hispanic origin, April 07-June 08
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 40: Brand usage for body and baby powder, by race/Hispanic origin, April 07-June 08
                                                                                                                                                      • Cluster Analysis

                                                                                                                                                          • Frillers
                                                                                                                                                            • Who they are
                                                                                                                                                              • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                                • Basics
                                                                                                                                                                  • Who they are
                                                                                                                                                                    • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                                      • Cluster characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 41: Baby disposable clusters, December 2008
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 42: Attitudes toward disposable baby products, by baby disposable clusters, December 2008
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 43: Usual place of purchase for disposable baby products, by baby disposable clusters, December 2008
                                                                                                                                                                      • Cluster demographics
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 44: Baby disposable clusters, by age group, December 2008
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 45: Baby disposable clusters, by income group, December 2008
                                                                                                                                                                      • Cluster methodology
                                                                                                                                                                      • IRI/Builders—Key Household Purchase Measures

                                                                                                                                                                        • Moist towelettes
                                                                                                                                                                          • Overview of moist towelettes
                                                                                                                                                                            • Moist towelettes
                                                                                                                                                                              • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 46: Key purchase measures for the top brands of moist towelettes, by household penetration, 2008*
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Baby wipes
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 47: Brand map, selected brands of baby wipes, by household penetration, 2008*
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 48: Key purchase measures for the top brands of baby wipes, by household penetration, 2008*
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Diapers
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Overview of diapers
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Disposable diapers
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 49: Brand map, selected brands of disposable diapers, by household penetration, 2008*
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 50: Key purchase measures for the top brands of disposable diapers, by household penetration, 2008*
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Disposable training pants
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 51: Brand map, selected brands of disposable training pants, by household penetration, 2008*
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 52: Key purchase measures for the top brands of disposable training pants, by household penetration, 2008*
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Baby needs
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Overview of baby needs
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Baby soaps
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 53: Brand map, selected brands of baby soaps, by household penetration, 2008*
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 54: Key purchase measures for the top brands of baby soaps, by household penetration, 2008*
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Baby powder
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 55: Brand map, selected brands of baby powder, by household penetration, 2008*
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 56: Key purchase measures for the top brands of baby powder, by household penetration, 2008*
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Trended usage
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 57: Use of disposable baby products in households with children aged 0-3, 2005, 2006, and 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Use of disposable diapers and training pants
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 58: When diapers or disposable training pants are used, December 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 59: Female respondents’ purchase of disposable diapers/training pants for children in household, December 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Place of purchase of products
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 60: Usual place of purchase for disposable baby products, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Attitudes and motivations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 61: Attitudes toward disposable baby products, agree summary, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix: Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Amazon North America
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Ascendia Brands, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • BabyCenter, L.L.C.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • CVS Caremark Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Federal Trade Commission
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Food and Drug Administration
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Food Lion
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Food Marketing Institute
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Food Products Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Gerber Products Company
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Giant Eagle
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Grocery Manufacturers Association (GMA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Johnson & Johnson
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Kimberly-Clark Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Kmart Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • L'Occitane Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • L'Oréal USA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Lansinoh Laboratories Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Los Angeles Times
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Meijer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • National Association of Diaper Services
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Personal Care Products Council
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Peter Rabbit Organics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Playtex Products Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Private Label Manufacturers Association (PLMA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Procter & Gamble Company (The)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Procter & Gamble USA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Publix Super Markets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Raley's Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Research In Motion (USA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Rite Aid Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Saatchi & Saatchi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Safeway Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Seventh Generation Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Target Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • TenderCare International, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • The Hain Celestial Group, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • U.S. Bureau of the Census
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Univision Communications Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • USA Today
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Walgreen Co
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Oh, Baby! - US - February 2009

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  £3,174.67 (Excl.Tax)