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Oil Change Retail - US - January 2018

"The oil change retail market is an extremely significant portion of the automotive aftermarket. In order to remain operational, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles must undergo regular maintenance and oil changes. The oil change retail industry is a large market, with a wide variety of oil change providers ranging from national quick lube chains to franchise dealerships to a local repair shop."
- Buddy Lo, Automotive Analyst

This Report looks at the following areas:

  • Nearly half of car owners don’t always adhere to recommended oil change intervals
  • Synthetic oils increasing mileage intervals between oil changes
  • Oil change market extremely fragmented and competitive

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • Overview
          • The issues
            • Nearly half of car owners don’t always adhere to recommended oil change intervals
              • Figure 1: Oil change behavior, October 2017
            • Synthetic oils increasing mileage intervals between oil changes
              • Figure 2: Recommended mileage between oil changes for 2000 and 2017 Toyota Camrys and Ford F150s
            • Oil change market extremely fragmented and competitive
              • Figure 3: Oil change location, October 2017
            • The opportunities
              • Americans are driving more than ever
                • Figure 4: Vehicle miles traveled, 2000-16
              • Only two in 10 car owners know how to change their own oil
                • Figure 5: Oil change behavior, by gender, October 2017
              • Car owners tend to use the same location for oil changes
                • Figure 6: Oil change behavior, by age, October 2017
              • What it means
              • The Market – What You Need to Know

                • Oil change retail market forecasted for growth
                  • Americans driving more than ever
                    • Average age of vehicles on the road over 11 years old
                      • Low fuel prices keep Americans driving
                      • Market Size and Forecast

                        • Oil change retail market forecasted for growth through 2022
                          • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of retail oil changes, at current prices, 2011-21
                          • Figure 8: Total US revenues and forecast of automotive oil change and lubrication shops, at current prices, 2012-22
                      • Market Perspective

                        • Electric vehicle adoption threatens oil change retail segment
                        • Market Factors

                          • Vehicle miles travelled continues to increase
                            • Figure 9: Vehicle miles travelled, 2000-16
                          • Low unemployment and high consumer confidence will deter DIY oil changes
                            • Figure 10: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000-November 2017
                          • New vehicle sales today mean service revenues for dealers tomorrow
                            • Older vehicles likely to need additional oil changes
                              • Figure 11: Average age of light vehicles in the US, 1995-2016
                            • Synthetic oils increasing mileage intervals between oil changes
                              • Figure 12: Recommended mileage between oil changes for 2000 and 2017 Toyota Camrys and Ford F150s
                            • Gas prices remain stable for the time being
                              • Figure 13: US gasoline and diesel retail prices, January 2007-December 2017
                          • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                            • Dealerships hold majority of retail oil change segment
                              • Tire-focused retailers losing market share
                                • Nearly a quarter of shoppers used an alternative source for an oil change
                                  • Electric vehicle adoption threatens entire oil change market
                                  • Company and Brand Percentage of Retail Oil Change

                                    • Dealerships, Jiffy Lube, and Walmart lead oil change segment
                                      • Figure 14: Market share of oil change locations, by consumers who have purchased an oil change in the past 12 months, July 2016-August 2017
                                  • What’s Working?

                                    • Dealerships and Valvoline see largest gains since 2013
                                      • Figure 15: Oil change locations used in the past 12 months, by consumers who have purchased an oil change, 2013-17
                                      • Figure 16: Temecula Nissan direct mail, December 2017
                                  • What’s Struggling?

                                    • Tire retailers losing market share in oil change retail
                                      • Figure 17: Goodyear acquisition email, March 2017
                                    • Branding plays a minimal role in car owners’ decisions
                                      • Figure 18: Oil change retail location reasons, October 2017
                                  • What’s Next?

                                    • General Motors “Marketplace” to allow car owners to book oil changes from their dashboard
                                      • Electric vehicle adoption will negatively impact oil change retailers
                                      • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                        • Most don’t know how to change their own oil
                                          • Cost and location are main reasons behind location choice
                                            • Most car owners agree they usually go to the same location
                                              • New car buyers more likely to go to the dealership
                                              • Auto Maintenance or Repair Services

                                                • Nearly eight out of 10 get an oil change professionally done
                                                  • Figure 19: Auto maintenance or repair services, October 2017
                                                  • Figure 20: Christian Brothers Automotive, direct mail, October 2017
                                              • Vehicle Model Year

                                                • One third of vehicles serviced are less than five years old
                                                  • Figure 21: Vehicle model year, October 2017
                                                  • Figure 22: Vehicle model year, October 2017
                                              • Purchase Type

                                                • Nearly 60% of vehicles serviced were purchased new
                                                  • Figure 23: Purchase type, October 2017
                                                • Purchase type correlated with age and income
                                                  • Figure 24: Purchase type, by age and income, October 2017
                                              • Oil Change Location

                                                • 40% of car owners took their car to the dealership for an oil change
                                                  • Figure 25: Oil change location, October 2017
                                                • Used car buyers more likely to go independent or alternative retailer for oil changes
                                                  • Figure 26: Oil change location, by purchase type, October 2017
                                                  • Figure 27: Keenan Honda certified pre-owned sales event, acquisition email, September 2017
                                                • Walmart and smaller firms see success among rural residents
                                                  • Figure 28: Oil change location, by area, October 2017
                                              • Location Reasons

                                                • Location the most important when it comes to oil changes
                                                  • Figure 29: Oil change retail location reasons, October 2017
                                                • TURF analysis for new car buyers
                                                  • Figure 30: TURF analysis – Oil change location reasons, October 2017
                                                • TURF analysis for used car buyers
                                                  • Figure 31: TURF analysis – Oil change location reasons, October 2017
                                                • Jiffy Lube winning on location, Walmart winning on cost, dealerships winning on trust and quality
                                                  • Figure 32: Location reasons, by oil change location, October 2017
                                              • Oil Change Behavior

                                                • Majority of car owners don’t know how to change their own oil
                                                  • Figure 33: Oil change behavior, October 2017
                                                • Men more likely than women to know how to change the oil and have a preferred brand
                                                  • Figure 34: Oil change behavior, by gender, October 2017
                                                • Younger shoppers look at reviews online, but aren’t scheduling online
                                                  • Figure 35: Oil change behavior, by age, October 2017
                                                  • Figure 36: Jiffy Lube, direct email, November 2017
                                                • Parents less patient when it comes to oil changes
                                                  • Figure 37: Oil change behavior, by parental status, October 2017
                                                • Used car buyers less likely to adhere to recommended intervals
                                                  • Figure 38: Oil change behavior, by purchase type, October 2017
                                              • Facility Amenities

                                                • WiFi is a must have for the waiting room
                                                    • Figure 39: Facility amenities, October 2017
                                                • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                  • Data sources
                                                    • Sales data
                                                      • Fan chart forecast
                                                        • Consumer survey data
                                                          • Consumer qualitative research
                                                            • Direct marketing creative
                                                              • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                • Abbreviations

                                                                Oil Change Retail - US - January 2018

                                                                US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)