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Oil Change Retail - US - June 2012

This report explores the oil change retail market in the U.S. It provides insight into the external and internal factors affecting sales and what they mean for future sales, marketing campaigns, and industry innovations.

It also provides an in-depth examination of the oil change retail market for industry retailers, distributors, and marketers interested in pursuing opportunities to innovate trends within segments and to evaluate the competition.

Segmentation data and analysis cover three segments: oil change plus outlets, fast lube chains, and associated lube chains.

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer survey data
              • Advertising creative
                • Abbreviations and terms
                  • Abbreviations
                    • Terms
                    • Executive Summary

                        • The market
                          • Figure 1: Fan chart forecast for oil change retail revenues, at best-, worst-, and central-case scenarios, 2006-2016
                        • Market factors
                          • Vehicle manufacturers challenging 3,000-mile oil change recommendation
                            • Consumers holding onto vehicles longer, increasing need for oil changes
                              • Figure 2: Average age of cars and light trucks, 1995-2011
                            • U.S. drivers driving fewer miles, threatening oil change frequency
                              • Figure 3: Consumer vehicle miles traveled, all U.S. roads and streets, 1998-2011
                            • Hybrid sales increase has potential to threaten oil change market
                              • Figure 4: Total U.S. sales and forecast of hybrid vehicles, 2006-14
                            • Segmentation
                              • Figure 5: U.S. oil change retailers, type of store by number of units, March 2011
                            • Seven retailers control half of market
                              • Figure 6: Top seven U.S. oil change retailers, by store units, March 2011
                            • The consumer
                              • Respondents most likely to take vehicle in for oil change
                                • Figure 7: Incidence of changing oil, and who did it, by household income, March 2012
                              • Majority of respondents getting oil changes for cars 7 years old or newer
                                • Figure 8: Age of vehicle for latest oil change, March 2012
                              • Dealership, service shop, and Jiffy Lube top three consumer preferences
                                • Figure 9: Shop used for last oil change – top five chains by age, March 2012
                                • Figure 10: Shop used for last oil change – dealership/shop types, by age, March 2012
                              • Window sticker, service checkup primary methods of reminding
                                • One third of respondents ask oil change technicians about oil
                                  • Figure 11: How drivers know which oil to use for their vehicle, by gender, March 2012
                                • Hispanics most likely to get oil changed on cars dating to 1999 and older
                                  • Black, Hispanic respondents most likely to prefer franchises over whites
                                    • Figure 12: Shop used for last oil change – Usage of main dealership, Jiffy Lube or Walmart, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
                                  • What we think
                                  • Issues in the Market

                                      • Impact of changes in recommendations for oil change frequency
                                        • Hybrid, EV market presents new opportunities
                                          • Taking a cue from dealerships to build relationships
                                          • Insights and Opportunities

                                            • Establish a dialogue with customers to understand their driving habits
                                              • Create discounts that are specifically tailored to the community
                                                • Prepaid gift cards can provide convenience, savings
                                                • Inspire Insights

                                                    • Inspire trend: Alpha Mothers
                                                      • Inspire trend: Experience Is All
                                                      • Market Size and Forecast

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • Oil change retail market forecast to increase 9.5% by 2016
                                                            • Figure 13: Total U.S. revenues of oil change/lubrication retailers, at current prices, 2006-16
                                                            • Figure 14: Total U.S. revenues of oil change/lubrication retailers, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-16
                                                          • Fan chart forecast
                                                              • Figure 15: Fan chart forecast for oil change retail revenues, at best-, worst-, and central-case scenarios, 2006-16
                                                          • Market Drivers

                                                            • Public campaigns, manufacturers challenging 3,000-mile recommendation
                                                              • Consumers holding onto vehicles longer, increasing demand for service
                                                                • Figure 16: Average age of cars and light trucks, 1995-2011
                                                              • Fewer miles driven by U.S. drivers, likely affecting frequency of oil changes
                                                                  • Figure 17: Consumer vehicle miles traveled, all U.S. roads and streets, 1998-2011
                                                                • Rising gas prices may affect oil change frequency in different ways
                                                                  • Figure 18: U.S. regular conventional retail gasoline prices, by first week in April, 2002-12
                                                                • Increase in hybrid vehicle sales expected to threaten oil change market
                                                                  • Figure 19: Total U.S. sales and forecast of hybrid vehicles, 2006-14
                                                                • Majority of respondents report they bought, changed oil over past year
                                                                  • Figure 20: Incidence of changing motor oil in the past 12 months, by age, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                • Among oil buyers, self-service, oil shop top ways of changing oil over past year
                                                                  • Figure 21: Who did oil change In last 12 months, by gender, October 2010-November 2011
                                                              • Retail Structure—Overview

                                                                • Key points
                                                                  • Quick lube center fourth choice for respondents in servicing vehicles
                                                                    • Figure 22: Type of store used for light or heavy duty maintenance/repair in the last 12 months, by age, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                  • Repair shops dominate dealerships for servicing
                                                                    • Figure 23: Type of store used for light or heavy duty maintenance/repair in the last 12 months, by household income, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                  • Oil change plus outlets dominate oil change retail market
                                                                    • Figure 24: U.S. oil change retailers, type of store, by number of units, March 2011
                                                                  • More than half the market controlled by top seven retailers
                                                                    • Figure 25: Top seven U.S. oil change retailers, by store units, March 2011
                                                                • Segment Performance—Oil Change Plus

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Three chains control 40% of oil change plus segment
                                                                      • Figure 26: Top 15 U.S. oil change plus chains, by store units, March 2011
                                                                    • Walmart Tire & Lube Express
                                                                      • Bridgestone Retail Operations
                                                                        • Goodyear Tire & Service Network
                                                                        • Segment Performance—Fast Lube Chains

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • Jiffy Lube controls 30% of U.S. fast lube market
                                                                              • Figure 27: Top 15 U.S. fast lube chains, by store units, March 2011
                                                                            • Jiffy Lube International
                                                                              • Valvoline
                                                                                • Pennzoil
                                                                                • Segment Performance—Associated Lube Chains

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Associated lube chains concentrate locations in specific regions
                                                                                      • Figure 28: Top U.S. associated lube chains and headquarter location, by store units, March 2011
                                                                                  • Innovation and Innovators

                                                                                    • Mobile app gives consumers ability to compare, contrast deals
                                                                                      • Auto repair shop offers warranty on all service work
                                                                                        • QR code on window sticker provides oil change updates
                                                                                          • Meineke launches program to help returning veterans become owners
                                                                                          • Marketing Strategies

                                                                                              • Strategy: Using cause marketing to create good will
                                                                                                • Strategy: Generate personality through signage, décor, social media
                                                                                                  • Strategy: Personalize service workers through humor
                                                                                                    • Strategy: Mobile marketing perfectly designed for nature of oil changes
                                                                                                      • Strategy: Using the recession to motivate savings
                                                                                                        • Figure 29: Jiffy Lube “Penny Earned” ad, May 2011
                                                                                                        • Figure 30: Meineke “Good For Budget” ad, January 2012
                                                                                                      • Strategy: Tailoring message to driving behavior of women
                                                                                                          • Figure 31: Super Lube “Severe Driver” ad, December 2011
                                                                                                        • Strategy: Providing perks at the time of the year consumers need it most
                                                                                                          • Figure 32: Delta Sonic “Two For One” ad, December 2011
                                                                                                        • Strategy: Emphasizing local connection of oil change outlet
                                                                                                          • Figure 33: Jiffy Lube “On The Road” ad, June 2011
                                                                                                      • Incidence of Changing Oil

                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                          • Most take vehicle in for oil change, few DIYers
                                                                                                            • Figure 34: Incidence of changing oil in past year, and who did it, March 2012
                                                                                                          • Incidence of taking to shop rises with age
                                                                                                            • Figure 35: Incidence of changing oil in past year and who did it, by age, March 2012
                                                                                                          • Likelihood of taking to a shop rises with income
                                                                                                            • Figure 36: Incidence of changing oil in past year and who did it, by household income, March 2012
                                                                                                          • Rural respondents most likely to change their own oil
                                                                                                            • Figure 37: Incidence of changing oil in past year and who did it, by area, March 2012
                                                                                                        • Age of Vehicle for Latest Oil Change

                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                            • Majority of respondents getting oil changes for cars 7 years old or newer
                                                                                                              • Figure 38: Age of vehicle for latest oil change, March 2012
                                                                                                            • Higher-income households changing oil on younger vehicles
                                                                                                              • Figure 39: Age of vehicle for latest oil change, by household income, March 2012
                                                                                                            • Those in the West most likely to be changing oil on oldest vehicles
                                                                                                              • Figure 40: Age of vehicle for latest oil change, by region, March 2012
                                                                                                          • Shops Used for Oil Change

                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                              • One fourth of respondents last got oil changed at car dealership
                                                                                                                • Figure 41: Shop used for last oil change, by gender, March 2012
                                                                                                              • Use of dealerships and local service shops for oil change increases with age
                                                                                                                • Figure 42: Shop used for last oil change, by age, March 2012
                                                                                                              • Walmart oil change used most by households earning less than $75K
                                                                                                                  • Figure 43: Shop used for last oil change, by household income, March 2012
                                                                                                                • Walmart gains oil change customers from rural areas
                                                                                                                  • Figure 44: Shop used for last oil change, by area, March 2012
                                                                                                                • Other shops used in past two years
                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                    • Jiffy Lube most preferred oil change operator over last two years
                                                                                                                      • Figure 45: Other shops used for oil change in past two years, by age, March 2012
                                                                                                                    • Highest-earning households prefer Jiffy Lube, dealership
                                                                                                                      • Figure 46: Other shops used for oil change in past two years, by household income, March 2012
                                                                                                                    • Urbanites most likely to have gotten oil changed at local service shop
                                                                                                                      • Figure 47: Other shops used for oil change in past two years, by urban area, March 2012
                                                                                                                    • Shops considered for future oil changes
                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                        • Majority considering Jiffy Lube for future oil changes
                                                                                                                          • Figure 48: Shops that would be considered for future oil change, by age, March 2012
                                                                                                                        • Future preference for Jiffy Lube reigns for households earning <$75K
                                                                                                                            • Figure 49: Shops that would be considered for future oil change, by household income, March 2012
                                                                                                                          • Jiffy Lube most likely to be future choice in the West
                                                                                                                            • Figure 50: Shops that would be considered for future oil change, by region, March 2012
                                                                                                                          • Rural households most likely to consider local service shops first
                                                                                                                            • Figure 51: Shops that would be considered for future oil change, by urban area, March 2012
                                                                                                                        • How Consumers are Reminded of Oil Changes

                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                            • Respondents say window sticker, regular servicing top ways of reminding
                                                                                                                                • Figure 52: What reminded car owner to do an oil change, by gender, March 2012
                                                                                                                              • Reminder via oil change light highest among youngest respondents
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 53: What reminded car owner to do an oil change, by age, March 2012
                                                                                                                                • Rural households most likely reminded through regular servicing
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 54: What reminded car owner to do an oil change, by urban area, March 2012
                                                                                                                                  • Swing Generation most responsive to windshield stickers
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 55: What reminded car owner to do an oil change, by generation, March 2012
                                                                                                                                  • Factors Driving Choice of Oil Change Outlet

                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                      • Typical reminders don’t impact operator choice for more than a third of vehicle owners
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 56: What persuaded the car owner to use a particular store for last oil change, by age, March 2012
                                                                                                                                      • Urban respondents most likely influenced by windshield sticker
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 57: What persuaded the car owner to use a particular store for last oil change, by urban area, March 2012
                                                                                                                                      • Swing Generation respondents most persuaded by windshield stickers
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 58: What persuaded the car owner to use a particular store for last oil change, by generation, March 2012
                                                                                                                                    • How Drivers Know Which Oil to Use for Vehicle

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                        • Reading the manual and asking the technician are main ways to know which oil to use
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 59: How drivers know which oil to use for their vehicle, by gender, March 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Those aged 65+ most likely to seek advice from technicians
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 60: How drivers know which oil to use for their vehicle, by age, March 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Highest-income households least informed about which oil to use in car
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 61: How drivers know which oil to use for their vehicle, by household income, March 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Late, Early Boomers most likely to read manual
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 62: How drivers know which oil to use for their vehicle, by generation, March 2012
                                                                                                                                      • Attitudes Regarding Last Oil Change Experience

                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                          • Youngest respondents least likely to agree reception staff explained work
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 63: Attitudes regarding last oil change experience shop and staff, by age, March 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Millennials, Gen Xers least likely to agree they were charged a fair price
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 64: Attitudes regarding last oil change experience shop and staff, by generation, March 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Respondents at Walmart most likely to agree they received a fair price
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 65: Attitudes regarding last oil change experience shop and staff, by shop used for last oil change, March 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Attitudes and Behavior Relating to Oil Change

                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                            • Half of respondents say they always choose same shop for oil changes
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 66: Attitudes and behavior relating to oil change, by gender, March 2012
                                                                                                                                            • Going to the same outlet is most important for older respondents
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 67: Attitudes and behavior relating to oil change, by age, March 2012
                                                                                                                                            • Swing Generation most likely to go to the same shop
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 68: Attitudes and behavior relating to oil change, by generation, March 2012
                                                                                                                                            • Dealership customers say consistency is important
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 69: Attitudes and behavior relating to oil change, by shop used for last oil change, March 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Impact of Race and Hispanic Origin

                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                              • Hispanics most likely to get oil changed on cars dating to 1999 or earlier
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 70: Age of vehicle for latest oil change, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
                                                                                                                                              • Shops for oil change
                                                                                                                                                • Blacks, Hispanics more likely than whites to use franchises for last change
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 71: Shop used for last oil change – Usage nets, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                • Over the longer term, Walmart and Jiffy Lube prominent for blacks and Hispanics
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 72: Other shops used for oil change in past two years, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                • White, black, Hispanic respondents all prefer Jiffy Lube for future changes
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 73: Shops that would be considered for future oil change, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                • Best oil change reminders, and influence on shop used
                                                                                                                                                  • Stickers dominate reminders; Hispanics keep an eye on oil change light and coupons
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 74: What reminded car owner to do an oil change, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                  • Stickers dominate for shop choice but television influences blacks
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 75: What persuaded the car owner to use a particular store for last oil change, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                  • Hispanics more likely than others to look for advice from family, friends on which oil to use
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 76: How drivers know which oil to use for their vehicle, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                  • Preference to seek more than one quote higher with Hispanics, blacks
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 77: Attitudes and behavior relating to oil change, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                  • Choice of outlet for all servicing influences oil change work
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 78: Type of store used for light or heavy duty maintenance/repair in the last 12 months, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                  • White respondents most likely to have purchased, changed oil
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 79: Incidence of changing motor oil in the past 12 months, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                  • Hispanics most likely to change/add vehicle oil at home
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 80: Who did oil change In last 12 months, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                  • Asian respondents most likely to not know brand of oil purchased
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 81: Brands of oil bought or changed in the last 12 months, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2010-November 2011
                                                                                                                                                • Appendix

                                                                                                                                                  • How drivers know which oil to use for their vehicle, by area
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 82: How drivers know which oil to use for their vehicle, by area, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                  • Oil change attitudes/behavior, by shop last used for oil change
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 83: Attitudes and behaior relating to oil change, by shop used for last oil change, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                • Appendix—Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                  Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                  • CITGO Petroleum Corporation
                                                                                                                                                  • ConocoPhillips
                                                                                                                                                  • Jiffy Lube International
                                                                                                                                                  • Royal Dutch/Shell Group
                                                                                                                                                  • Shell Oil Products US
                                                                                                                                                  • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                                                                                                                  Oil Change Retail - US - June 2012

                                                                                                                                                  £3,199.84 (Excl.Tax)