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On-premise Alcohol Consumption Trends - US - February 2013

“When it comes to on-premise alcohol trends, the recessionary spending habits of consumers are continuing. These consumers are being deterred from purchase due to price, health, and fear of public intoxication. To draw out these consumers, operators must create the right balance of offerings that meet the specific needs of their target consumers. Such strategies should be focused around entertainment, ambience, and service as they cannot be duplicated at home.”

– Bethany Wall, Foodservice Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • How can operators get consumers to shake off recessionary habits?
  • How can operators meet consumers’ health needs?
  • How can operators overcome consumers’ social fears of intoxication?

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Mintel Menu Insights
            • Consumer survey data
              • Advertising creative
                • Abbreviations and terms
                  • Abbreviations
                    • Terms
                    • Executive Summary

                        • The market
                          • Figure 1: U.S. sales and fan chart forecast of on-premise alcohol market, at current prices, 2007-17
                        • Market drivers
                          • Competitive context
                            • Menu analysis
                              • Figure 2: Segment breakdown of on-premise alcohol beverages, by incidence, Q4 2009-12
                              • Figure 3: Top 10 cocktail types, by incidence, Q4 2009-12
                            • Consumer data
                              • Figure 4: On-premise alcohol consumption behavior, October 2012
                            • Consumer attitudes
                              • Figure 5: Attitudes toward on-premise alcohol consumption, October 2012
                            • What we think
                            • Issues in the Market

                                • How can operators get consumers to shake off recessionary habits?
                                  • How can operators meet consumers’ health needs?
                                    • How can operators overcome consumers’ social fears of intoxication?
                                    • Insights and Opportunities

                                      • Drink trends from 2012 are continuing to expand
                                        • Packaging
                                          • Booze in new places
                                            • Alcohol pairings
                                              • Figure 6: Milwaukee’s Best Burgers’ Bloody Mary, November 2012
                                            • Flavored alcohol
                                              • Technology
                                              • Trend Applications

                                                  • Trend: Minimize Me
                                                    • Trend: Experience Is All
                                                      • Trend: 2015 Brand Intervention
                                                      • Market Size and Forecast

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • Market size insight
                                                            • On-premise alcohol sales and forecast
                                                              • Figure 7: Total U.S. sales and forecast of on-premise alcohol market, at current prices, 2007-17
                                                              • Figure 8: Total U.S. sales and forecast of on-premise alcohol market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
                                                            • Fan chart forecast
                                                                • Figure 9: U.S. sales and fan chart forecast of on-premise alcohol market, at current prices, 2007-17
                                                            • Market Drivers

                                                              • Key points
                                                                • Disposable personal income increased and is stronger than 2011
                                                                  • Figure 10: Real disposable personal income, January 2007-November 2012
                                                                • Unemployment and underemployment decline
                                                                  • Figure 11: Unemployment and underemployment rates, January 2007-December 2012
                                                                • Consumer sentiment experienced a large decline
                                                                  • Figure 12: Consumer sentiment, January 2007-December 2012
                                                                • Calorie disclosure legislation and sugary drink bans
                                                                  • Cost and inflation of food items
                                                                    • The aging population
                                                                      • Figure 13: Population, by age, 2010
                                                                  • Competitive Context

                                                                    • Drinking at home: cheaper, but lacking the eating out experience
                                                                      • Figure 14: Changes in behavior with on-premise alcohol consumption, October 2012
                                                                      • Figure 15: Consumer behavior regarding on-premise alcohol consumption, by gender, October 2012
                                                                      • Figure 16: Attitudes toward on-premise alcohol consumption, by gender, October 2012
                                                                  • Featured Companies

                                                                    • Limited service
                                                                      • Smashburger
                                                                        • Figure 17: Smashburger + Saint Arnold pairing menu, January 2013
                                                                      • Full service
                                                                        • Applebee’s Neighborhood Grill and Bar
                                                                          • Twin Peaks
                                                                            • The Capital Grille
                                                                              • Specialty
                                                                                • Cooper’s Hawk Winery & Restaurant
                                                                                  • Oskar Blues Brewery
                                                                                  • Marketing Strategies

                                                                                    • Overview of the brand landscape
                                                                                      • Television ads
                                                                                        • Buffalo Wild Wings
                                                                                          • Figure 18: Buffalo Wild Wings television ad, August 2012
                                                                                        • Joe’s Crab Shack
                                                                                          • Figure 19: Joe’s Crab Shack television ad, August 2012
                                                                                        • Shula’s Steak House
                                                                                          • Figure 20: Shula’s Steak House television ad, September 2011
                                                                                        • T.G.I. Friday’s
                                                                                          • Figure 21: T.G.I. Friday’s television ad, January 2013
                                                                                        • The Keg Steakhouse
                                                                                          • Figure 22: The Keg Steakhouse television ad, January 2013
                                                                                        • Tilted Kilt
                                                                                          • Figure 23: Tilted Kilt television ad, September 2012
                                                                                        • Print and social media advertising
                                                                                        • Menu Analysis: On-Premise Alcohol

                                                                                          • Segment breakdown of alcoholic beverages
                                                                                            • Figure 24: Segment breakdown of alcohol beverage items, by incidence, Q4 2009-12
                                                                                            • Figure 25: Segment breakdown of alcoholic beverage items, by price, Q4 2009-12
                                                                                          • Leading alcoholic beverages menued
                                                                                            • Figure 26: Top 10 alcoholic beverage items, by incidence, Q4 2009-12
                                                                                            • Figure 27: Top 10 alcoholic beverage items, by price, Q4 2009-12
                                                                                        • Menu Analysis: Cocktails

                                                                                          • Segment breakdown of cocktails
                                                                                              • Figure 28: Segment breakdown of cocktail items, by incidence, Q4 2009-12
                                                                                              • Figure 29: Segment breakdown of cocktail items, by price, Q4 2009-12
                                                                                            • Leading cocktail types
                                                                                                • Figure 30: Top 10 cocktail types, by incidence, Q4 2009-12
                                                                                              • Top alcohol types used in cocktails
                                                                                                  • Figure 31: Top 10 alcohol ingredients used in cocktails, by incidence, Q4 2009-12
                                                                                                • Frequently menued item claims
                                                                                                    • Figure 32: Top 10 menu item claims for cocktails, by incidence, Q4 2009-12
                                                                                                • Menu Analysis: Wine

                                                                                                  • Segment breakdown of wine
                                                                                                    • Figure 33: Segment breakdown of wine, by incidence, Q4 2009-12
                                                                                                    • Figure 34: Segment breakdown of wine, by price, Q4 2009-12
                                                                                                  • Leading categories of wine
                                                                                                    • Figure 35: Top categories of wine, by incidence, Q4 2009-12
                                                                                                  • Most menued types of wine
                                                                                                      • Figure 36: Top 10 types of wine, by incidence, Q4 2009-12
                                                                                                    • Top menu item claims for wine
                                                                                                        • Figure 37: Top 10 menu item claims for wines, by incidence, Q4 2009-12
                                                                                                    • Menu Analysis: Beer

                                                                                                      • Segment breakdown of beer
                                                                                                          • Figure 38: Segment breakdown of beer, by incidence, Q4 2009-12
                                                                                                          • Figure 39: Segment breakdown of beer, by price, Q4 2009-12
                                                                                                        • Leading types of beer
                                                                                                            • Figure 40: Top 10 types of beer, by incidence, Q4 2009-12
                                                                                                          • Most frequent menu item claims for beer
                                                                                                              • Figure 41: Top 10 menu item claims for beer, by incidence, Q4 2009-12
                                                                                                            • Top flavors for beer
                                                                                                              • Figure 42: Top 10 flavors for beer, by incidence, Q4 2009-12
                                                                                                          • Alcohol Types Typically Ordered On-premise

                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                              • Men choose beer and shots, while women pick wine and specialty cocktails
                                                                                                                • Figure 43: Alcohol types typically ordered on-premise, by gender, October 2012
                                                                                                              • Millennials order on-premise alcohol more than any other age group
                                                                                                                • Figure 44: Alcohol types typically ordered on-premise, by age, October 2012
                                                                                                              • Affluent consumers prefer wine and specialty cocktails
                                                                                                                • Figure 45: Alcohol types typically ordered on-premise, by household income, October 2012
                                                                                                              • Some drinks resonate strongly with particular races
                                                                                                                • Figure 46: Alcohol types typically ordered on-premise, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2012
                                                                                                            • Changes in Behavior with On-premise Alcohol

                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                • Consumers are continuing to restrict spending on on-premise alcohol
                                                                                                                  • Figure 47: Changes in behavior with on-premise alcohol consumption, October 2012
                                                                                                                • Men have increased the amount they spend per visit
                                                                                                                  • Figure 48: Changes in behavior with on-premise alcohol consumption, by gender, October 2012
                                                                                                                • Increases in on-premise behavior decline with age
                                                                                                                  • Figure 49: Changes in behavior with on-premise alcohol consumption, by age, OCTOBER 2012
                                                                                                                • Affluent more likely to have increased visits, amount spent, and trial
                                                                                                                  • Figure 50: Changes in behavior with on-premise alcohol consumption, by household income, October 2012
                                                                                                              • Specialty Cocktail Selection Methods

                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                  • Consumers seek out certain alcohol types and reject cocktails with others
                                                                                                                    • Figure 51: Specialty cocktail selection methods, October 2012
                                                                                                                  • Men want beer and dark liquors, while women look for wine and light liquors
                                                                                                                    • Figure 52: Seek out cocktails with this alcohol type, by gender, October 2012
                                                                                                                    • Figure 53: Indifferent to this alcohol type, by gender, October 2012
                                                                                                                    • Figure 54: Will not order a cocktail with this alcohol type, by gender, October 2012
                                                                                                                  • Age dictates liquor preferences and ordering behavior
                                                                                                                    • Figure 55: Seek out cocktails with this alcohol type, by age, October 2012
                                                                                                                    • Figure 56: Indifferent to this alcohol type, by age, October 2012
                                                                                                                    • Figure 57: Will not order a cocktail with this alcohol type, by age, October 2012
                                                                                                                  • Income dictates liquor preferences and ordering behavior
                                                                                                                    • Figure 58: Seek out cocktails with this alcohol type, by household income, October 2012
                                                                                                                    • Figure 59: Indifferent to this alcohol type, by household income, October 2012
                                                                                                                    • Figure 60: Will not order a cocktail with this alcohol type, by household income, October 2012
                                                                                                                  • Racial differences dictate liquor preferences and ordering behavior
                                                                                                                    • Figure 61: Seek out cocktails with this alcohol type, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2012
                                                                                                                    • Figure 62: Indifferent to this alcohol type, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2012
                                                                                                                    • Figure 63: Will not order a cocktail with this alcohol type, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2012
                                                                                                                • Choosing On-premise Destinations

                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                    • Women demand more out of on-premise establishments than do men
                                                                                                                      • Figure 64: Drivers to choose on-premise destinations, by gender, October 2012
                                                                                                                    • Millennials concerned with popularity and unique drink experiences
                                                                                                                      • Figure 65: Drivers to choose on-premise destinations, by age, October 2012
                                                                                                                    • Lower-income respondents likely to benefit from increased entertainment
                                                                                                                      • Figure 66: Drivers to choose on-premise destinations, by household income, October 2012
                                                                                                                    • Each race is more likely to than the others to consider certain criteria
                                                                                                                        • Figure 67: Drivers to choose on-premise destinations, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2012
                                                                                                                    • On-Premise Alcohol Consumption Behavior

                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                        • Men buy shots in multiples, while women worry about alcohol content
                                                                                                                          • Figure 68: Consumer behavior regarding on-premise alcohol consumption, by gender, October 2012
                                                                                                                        • Millennials and low-income respondents are concerned with price
                                                                                                                          • Figure 69: Consumer behavior regarding on-premise alcohol consumption, by age, October 2012
                                                                                                                          • Figure 70: Consumer behavior regarding on-premise alcohol consumption, by household income, October 2012
                                                                                                                      • Attitudes toward On-premise Alcohol Consumption

                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                          • Men order by brand, while women want healthy, lower-alcohol beverages
                                                                                                                            • Figure 71: Attitudes toward on-premise alcohol consumption, by gender, October 2012
                                                                                                                          • Younger consumers are more willing to try new types of drinks
                                                                                                                              • Figure 72: Attitudes toward on-premise alcohol consumption, by age, October 2012
                                                                                                                            • Affluent consumers enjoy being with friends and like to order by brand
                                                                                                                                • Figure 73: Attitudes toward on-premise alcohol consumption, by household income, October 2012
                                                                                                                              • White and Hispanic consumers are turned off by specialty cocktails
                                                                                                                                • Figure 74: Attitudes toward on-premise alcohol consumption, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2012
                                                                                                                            • Hispanic Consumers

                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                • Hispanics likely to order beer and shots on-premise
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 75: Alcohol types typically ordered on-premise, by Hispanic origin, October 2012
                                                                                                                                • Hispanics likely to have increased on-premise consumption
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 76: Changes in behavior with on-premise alcohol consumption, by Hispanic origin, October 2012
                                                                                                                                • Hispanics prefer specialty cocktails with vodka, tequila, whiskey and beer
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 77: Seek out cocktails with this alcohol type, by Hispanic origin, October 2012
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 78: Indifferent to this alcohol type, by Hispanic origin, October 2012
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 79: Will not order a cocktail with this alcohol type, by Hispanic origin, October 2012
                                                                                                                                • Hispanics choose on-premise destinations, based on friendliness of staff
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 80: Drivers to choose on-premise destinations, by Hispanic origin, October 2012
                                                                                                                                • Hispanics likely to order beer and shots on-premise
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 81: Consumer behavior regarding on-premise alcohol consumption, by Hispanic origin, October 2012
                                                                                                                                • Hispanics like trying new items, preferring variety and certain brands
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 82: Attitudes toward on-premise alcohol consumption, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2012
                                                                                                                                • Limited Alcohol versus Hard Liquor Respondents

                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                    • Limited alcohol versus hard liquor respondents reveal the right menu mix
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 83: Alcohol types typically ordered on-premise, by alcohol types typically ordered on-premise, October 2012
                                                                                                                                    • Hard liquor drinkers increased specialty cocktail and new drink usage
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 84: Changes in behavior with on-premise alcohol consumption, by alcohol types typically ordered on-premise, October 2012
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 85: Changes in behavior with on-premise alcohol consumption (limited alcohol), October 2012
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 86: Changes in behavior with on-premise alcohol consumption (hard liquor), October 2012
                                                                                                                                    • Limited alcohol consumers seek beer- and wine-based specialty cocktails
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 87: Seek out cocktails with this alcohol type, by on-premise alcohol consumer group, October 2012
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 88: Indifferent to this alcohol type, by on-premise alcohol consumer group, October 2012
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 89: Will not order a cocktail with this alcohol type, by on-premise alcohol consumer group, October 2012
                                                                                                                                    • Regular cocktail drinkers versus specialty cocktail drinkers
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 90: Specialty cocktail selection methods (regular cocktail respondents), October 2012
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 91: Specialty cocktail selection methods (specialty cocktail respondents), October 2012
                                                                                                                                    • Liquor drinkers are looking for a “party-like” experience
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 92: Drivers to choose on-premise destinations, by alcohol types typically ordered on-premise, October 2012
                                                                                                                                    • Price, alcohol content, and sugar are barriers for non-liquor drinkers
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 93: Attitudes toward on-premise alcohol consumption, by alcohol types typically ordered on-premise, October 2012
                                                                                                                                  • Cluster Analysis

                                                                                                                                      • Cluster 1: Bare Bones
                                                                                                                                        • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                          • Demographics
                                                                                                                                            • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                              • Cluster 2: Big Drinkers
                                                                                                                                                • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                                  • Demographics
                                                                                                                                                    • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                      • Cluster 3: Nervous Nellys
                                                                                                                                                        • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                                          • Demographics
                                                                                                                                                            • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                              • Cluster characteristic tables
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 94: Target clusters, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 95: Alcohol types typically ordered on-premise, by target clusters, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 96: Changes in behavior with on-premise alcohol consumption, by target clusters, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 97: Seek out cocktails with this alcohol type, by target clusters, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 98: Indifferent to this alcohol type, by target clusters, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 99: Will not order a cocktail with this alcohol type, by target clusters, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 100: Drivers to choose on-premise destinations, by target clusters, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 101: Consumer behavior regarding on-premise alcohol consumption, by target clusters, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 102: Attitudes toward on-premise alcohol consumption, by target clusters, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Cluster demographic tables
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 103: Target clusters, by demographic, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Cluster methodology
                                                                                                                                                              • Additional Tables

                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 104: Changes in behavior with on-premise alcohol consumption, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 105: Consumer behavior regarding on-premise alcohol consumption, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 106: Consumer behavior regarding on-premise alcohol consumption, by alcohol types typically ordered on-premise, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                                Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                • Absolut Spirits Company (USA)
                                                                                                                                                                • Applebee's International Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                • Bacardi U.S.A. Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                • Brinker International Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                • Häagen-Dazs
                                                                                                                                                                • Hooters of America, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                • Kona Grill, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                • Maxxium Worldwide B.V.
                                                                                                                                                                • New Belgium Brewing Company Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                • Red Bull North America, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                • Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                • Smashburger Master LLC
                                                                                                                                                                • Stolichnaya
                                                                                                                                                                • TGI Friday's
                                                                                                                                                                • U.S. Bureau of the Census
                                                                                                                                                                • Weight Watchers International Inc.

                                                                                                                                                                On-premise Alcohol Consumption Trends - US - February 2013

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