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On-premise Alcohol Trends - US - September 2017

"On-premise alcohol sales continue to grow despite falling volume consumption indicating that consumers are ordering fewer but more expensive drinks when they go out. Drinking away from home tends to revolve around occasions with consumers ordering drinks that correspond to the current occasion. By understanding what drink goes with what occasion, alcohol brands and bars can better market certain drinks. Meals and celebrations are the most common reason why consumers drink on premise and bars can increase alcohol sales by providing consumers with a unique eating/drinking experience."
- Caleb Bryant, Senior Foodservice Analyst

This Report looks at the following areas:

  • A third of consumers are at home relaxers
  • On-premise beer consumption drops
  • Regular wine drinkers are brand agnostic

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • Alcohol sales experience continued growth
          • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart of on-premise alcohol sales, at current prices, 2012-22
        • The issues
          • A third of consumers are at home relaxers
            • Figure 2: On-premise alcohol attitudes, June 2017
          • On-premise beer consumption drops
            • Figure 3: Total on-premise market volume consumption per capita, beer, 2011-20
          • Regular wine drinkers are brand agnostic
            • Figure 4: Drink brand loyalty: beer and wine, among drink type drinkers, any brand loyalty, June 2017
          • The opportunities
            • Mood dictates what drinks consumers order
              • Figure 5: Drinking behaviors, by gender and age, June 2017
            • An occasion for every drink…
              • Figure 6: Correspondence analysis – Drinking occasions, June 2017
            • And a drink for every venue
              • Figure 7: Venue appeal, by wine type drinkers, indexed against all AFH drinkers, June 2017
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Falling volume offset by premium drinks
                • Interest in traveling benefits the alcohol industry
                  • Rising median age could impact the market
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • On-premise sales pass the $100 billion mark
                      • Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart of on-premise alcohol sales, at current prices, 2012-22
                      • Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of on-premise alcohol sales, at current prices, 2012-22
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • Consumers are ordering fewer but more expensive drinks
                        • Figure 10: Total on-premise market volume consumption per capita, beer, 2011-20
                        • Figure 11: Total on-premise market volume consumption per capita, spirits and wine/sparkling wine, 2011-20
                      • Light beer is quickly losing market share
                        • Figure 12: Share of total US volume sales of beer, by segment, 2010 and 2015 (est)
                      • Table wine represents 90% of all wine sold
                        • Figure 13: US volume sales of wine, by segment, 2011-21
                      • Irish and other imported whiskey experience strong growth
                        • Figure 14: US volume sales of whiskey, 2011-16
                      • Rum and gin lose white spirit market share
                        • Figure 15: US volume sales and forecast of white spirits, volume share, by segment, 2011-21
                        • Figure 16: US volume sales and forecast of white spirits, by segment, 2011-21
                    • Market Perspective

                      • Wine brands embrace the versatility of sparkling wine
                        • Brands spike one of the fastest growing non-alcoholic beverages
                            • Figure 17: Alcoholic beverages purchase intent score, July 2016-July 2017
                          • Alcohol mixers allow for cocktails at home
                            • Figure 18: Total US retail sales and forecast of alcoholic beverage mixers, at current prices, 2012-22
                        • Market Factors

                          • The median age climbs up
                            • Figure 19: Median age of total US population, 1995-2016
                          • Ride sharing an unintended boon for bars
                            • Figure 20: Lyft email, “Ride safe this Memorial Day with Budweiser and RESQWATER Proactive Recovery”
                          • Pack your bags, Americans are going on vacation
                            • Figure 21: Expenditures on US tourism-related goods and services, by segment, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
                        • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                          • Latin flavors and boozy brunches provide opportunity for bars
                            • Non-alcoholic drinks become a stand-in for the real thing
                              • Growing interest in travel leads to better hotel bars
                              • What’s Working?

                                • Bars look south of the border for inspiration
                                  • Spiked shakes tap into fun/nostalgia
                                    • Figure 22: Alcoholic milkshakes from Public House in Chicago
                                  • Sparkling wine and wine cocktails expand the occasions for wine
                                      • Figure 23: Sangria LTOs and new menu items at casual dining chains
                                    • Millennials associate brunch with alcohol
                                      • Figure 24: Brunch option interest, by generation, May 2017
                                      • Figure 25: Breakfast/brunch cocktail examples
                                    • Floral cocktails spring up on menus
                                      • Figure 26: Floral-flavored cocktails on menus
                                  • What’s Struggling?

                                    • A sobering future?
                                      • Figure 27: Mocktail examples
                                    • Restaurants are removing big beer brands from menus
                                      • Figure 28: Change in incidence of top 20 beer brands on menus, Q2 2015-Q2 2017
                                    • On-premise wine needs to connect with younger consumers
                                      • Figure 29: Median age of on-premise wine vs Champagne/sparkling wine drinkers
                                      • Figure 30: Wine behavior by age, August 2016
                                    • Gin lacks brand loyalists
                                      • Figure 31: US volume sales and forecast of gin, 2011-21
                                  • What’s Next?

                                    • Don’t be afraid of fat
                                      • Figure 32: Fat used in cocktails
                                    • The slushy reinvented
                                      • Hotels leverage local alcohol offerings
                                        • Bars/restaurants focus on the entire experience
                                          • Retailers blur on and off premise
                                          • Mintel Menu Insights Analysis

                                            • Pale ales and “cloudy” beers trend while light beer goes flat
                                                • Figure 33: Change in incidence of top 20 beer types, Q2 2015-Q2 2017
                                              • Beer gets fruitful
                                                • Figure 34: Fastest growing fruit beer flavors, Q2 2015-Q2 2017
                                              • Wines experience strong menu growth
                                                • Figure 35: Change in incidence of top 10 wine types, Q2 2015-Q2 2017
                                              • Red wines
                                                • Figure 36: Change in incidence of top 10 red wine types, Q2 2015-Q2 2017
                                              • White wines
                                                • Figure 37: Change in incidence of top 10 white wine types, Q2 2015-Q2 2017
                                              • Sparkling wines
                                                • Figure 38: Change in incidence of top Champagne/sparkling wine types, Q2 2015-Q2 2017
                                              • Craft cocktails continue to dominate the industry
                                                • Figure 39: Change in incidence of top 15 cocktails, Q2 2015-Q2 2017
                                              • Sour cocktails give way to flower and ginger flavors
                                                • Figure 40: Change in the incidence of the top 20 ingredient flavors used in cocktails, Q2 2017-Q2 2017
                                                • Figure 41: Change in the incidence of top 10 fruit ingredient flavors used in cocktails, Q2 2015-Q2 2017
                                              • Whiskey cocktails grow in popularity driven by bourbon
                                                • Figure 42: Change in incidence of spirits as an ingredient in a menued cocktail, Q2 2015-Q2 2017
                                                • Figure 43: Change in incidence of whiskey as an ingredient in a menued cocktail, Q2 2015-Q2 2017
                                              • Fruit-flavored liqueurs decline
                                                • Figure 44: Change in incidence of liqueurs as an ingredient in a menued cocktail, top 20 liqueurs, Q2 2015-Q2 2017
                                            • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                              • Drinkers have venue preferences
                                                • NCD and imported beer have brand loyalists
                                                  • Mood and occasions determine what drinks consumers order
                                                  • Alcohol Consumed on Premise

                                                    • Beer is the most consumed alcoholic beverage on premise
                                                      • Figure 45: Alcohol consumed on premise, June 2017
                                                    • Millennials are the primary consumers of all drinks
                                                      • Figure 46: Alcohol consumed on premise, by generation, June 2017
                                                      • Figure 47: Alcohol consumed on premise, by Millennial age, June 2017
                                                    • Women and men have very different drinking preferences
                                                      • Figure 48: Alcohol consumed on premise, by gender and age, June 2017
                                                    • Opportunity for craft beer brands to connect with Hispanics
                                                      • Figure 49: Alcohol consumed on premise, by Hispanic origin, June 2017
                                                    • Black consumers are infrequent AFH drinkers
                                                      • Figure 50: Alcohol consumed on premise, by race, June 2017
                                                    • Cool cocktails appeal to social media users
                                                        • Figure 51: Alcohol consumed on premise, by alcohol attitudes, June 2017
                                                      • Non-switchers are loyal to non-craft domestic beer
                                                          • Figure 52: Alcohol consumed on premise, by switching segmentation, June 2017
                                                      • Venue Appeal

                                                        • Consumers are most interested in restaurant bars
                                                          • Figure 53: Venue appeal, June 2017
                                                        • Millennials find a variety of venues appealing
                                                          • Figure 54: Venue appeal, by generation, June 2017
                                                        • More experiential venues may appeal to women
                                                          • Figure 55: Venue appeal, by gender, June 2017
                                                          • Figure 56: Venue appeal, by gender and age, June 2017
                                                        • Nightclubs popular among Hispanic consumers
                                                          • Figure 57: Venue appeal, by race/ethnicity, June 2017
                                                        • Venue preferences vary by drinker types
                                                          • Craft beer drinkers prefer less-noisy establishments
                                                            • Figure 58: Venue appeal, indexed against all AFH drinkers, by beer type drinkers, June 2017
                                                          • Venues can capitalize on the popularity of sparkling wine
                                                            • Figure 59: Venue appeal, by wine type drinkers, June 2017
                                                          • Large cross-over for craft drinkers
                                                            • Figure 60: Venue appeal, by select spirit type drinkers, June 2017
                                                          • Energy seekers are club-goers
                                                              • Figure 61: Venue appeal, by alcohol attitudes, June 2017
                                                            • Drink switchers are also open minded when it comes to venues
                                                                • Figure 62: Venue appeal, by switching segmentation, June 2017
                                                            • Drink Brand Loyalty: Beer and Wine

                                                              • Consumers are loyal to non-craft and imported beer brands
                                                                • Figure 63: Drink brand loyalty: Beer and wine, among drink type drinkers, June 2017
                                                              • Older consumers have their beer preferences
                                                                • Figure 64: Drink brand loyalty: Beer and wine, among drink type drinkers by age, “any loyalty,” June 2017
                                                            • Drink Brand Loyalty: Spirits

                                                              • Whiskey drinkers are the most brand loyal
                                                                • Figure 65: Drink brand loyalty: Spirits, rebased among drinkers, June 2017
                                                            • Drinking Behaviors

                                                              • Drink choice is highly mood dependent
                                                                • Figure 66: Drinking behaviors, June 2017
                                                              • Many consumers don’t switch drinks
                                                                  • Figure 67: Switching behaviors, June 2017
                                                                • Women may respond to occasion-based promotions
                                                                  • Figure 68: Drinking behaviors, by gender, June 2017
                                                                  • Figure 69: Drinking behaviors, by gender and age, June 2017
                                                                • Millennials are experimental drinkers
                                                                  • Figure 70: Drinking behaviors, by generation, June 2017
                                                                  • Figure 71: Switching behaviors, by generation, June 2017
                                                                • NCD beer drinkers are most likely to be non-switchers
                                                                  • Figure 72: Switching behaviors, by beer type drinkers, June 2017
                                                              • Drinking Occasions by Drink Type

                                                                • Methodology
                                                                  • Consumers chose drinks for specific occasions
                                                                    • Figure 73: Correspondence analysis – Drinking occasions, June 2017
                                                                    • Figure 74: Drinking occasions by drink type, June 2017
                                                                  • Beverage drinking occasions vary by demographics
                                                                    • Figure 75: Drinking occasions – Any beer, by age, June 2017
                                                                • Drinking Occasions: Any Drink Type

                                                                  • Drinking tends to center around meals and celebrations
                                                                    • Figure 76: Drinking occasions, any drink, June 2017
                                                                  • Millennials are more likely to drink across occasions
                                                                    • Figure 77: Drinking occasions, any drink, by generation, June 2017
                                                                  • At home relaxers will indulge on certain occasions
                                                                      • Figure 78: Drinking occasions, any drink, by alcohol attitudes, June 2017
                                                                  • On-premise Alcohol Attitudes

                                                                    • A third of consumers prefer a relaxing drink at home
                                                                        • Figure 79: On-premise alcohol attitudes, June 2017
                                                                      • Younger women utilize ride sharing services
                                                                        • Figure 80: On-premise alcohol attitudes, by gender and age, June 2017
                                                                      • Boomers prefer to drink at home
                                                                        • Figure 81: On-premise alcohol attitudes, by generation, June 2017
                                                                      • Those in cities are most motivated by social media
                                                                        • Figure 82: On-premise alcohol attitudes, by area, June 2017
                                                                      • Switchers experiment on premise
                                                                          • Figure 83: On-premise alcohol attitudes, by switcher segmentation, June 2017
                                                                        • Craft cocktail drinkers enjoy experimenting
                                                                          • Figure 84: On-premise alcohol attitudes, by drink type drinkers, June 2017
                                                                      • Behavioral/Attitudinal Drinker Demographic Profiles

                                                                        • Demographic profile: Switching behaviors
                                                                          • Figure 85: Switcher segmentation profile, index against all AFH drinkers
                                                                        • Demographic profile: Energy seekers, connected social media users, and at home relaxers
                                                                          • Figure 86: Alcohol attitudes profile, index against all AFH drinkers,
                                                                      • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                        • Data sources
                                                                          • Sales data
                                                                            • Fan chart forecast
                                                                              • Consumption data: Mintel Market Sizes
                                                                                • Consumer survey data
                                                                                  • Consumer qualitative research
                                                                                    • Mintel Menu Insights
                                                                                      • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                        • Abbreviations
                                                                                          • Terms
                                                                                          • Appendix – The Consumer

                                                                                              • Figure 87: Median HH income, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2015
                                                                                          • Appendix – The Market

                                                                                              • Figure 88: Total US sales and forecast of on-premise alcohol, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22

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                                                                                          On-premise Alcohol Trends - US - September 2017

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